The Russians announced that they plan nine more Proton rocket launches in 2013, for a total of twelve.
The competition heats up: The Russians announced today that they plan nine more Proton rocket launches in 2013, for a total of twelve.
I note this to give some context to what SpaceX will do with Falcon 9 this year. SpaceX has just updated its launch manifest schedule, and if the American company does what it says, it should have at least six more Falcon 9 flights this year, for a total of seven.
Should these predicted launches all take place, it will clearly demonstrate that SpaceX has grabbed a significant share of the launch market, but that the Russians are also holding their own.
Note also that the updated launch manifest still includes the first test flight of Falcon Heavy in 2013. Very interesting.
Update: The Russians are also preparing to launch their new Angara rocket family, which will replace their older rockets and allow them to launch from their new spaceport.
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The competition heats up: The Russians announced today that they plan nine more Proton rocket launches in 2013, for a total of twelve.
I note this to give some context to what SpaceX will do with Falcon 9 this year. SpaceX has just updated its launch manifest schedule, and if the American company does what it says, it should have at least six more Falcon 9 flights this year, for a total of seven.
Should these predicted launches all take place, it will clearly demonstrate that SpaceX has grabbed a significant share of the launch market, but that the Russians are also holding their own.
Note also that the updated launch manifest still includes the first test flight of Falcon Heavy in 2013. Very interesting.
Update: The Russians are also preparing to launch their new Angara rocket family, which will replace their older rockets and allow them to launch from their new spaceport.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Interesting indeed. The from-all-sources orbital/BEO launch schedule at spaceflightnow.com shows only three Protons scheduled between now and July 19, but nothing for the rest of this year. I’ll be looking for more entries/info to appear there – or not – about the remaining six putative Proton launches.
As for SpaceX, I’d be delighted if they got seven F9’s and the FH off the ground this year. But I’m dubious. The spaceflightnow.com schedule has proven fairly accurate and shows the same five F9 missions upcoming for 2013 that have been there for awhile: the high-inclination CASSIOPE mission out of Vandenberg in July, then two geosync comsats, a multi-satellite launch of the LEO Orbcomm comsats and the third ISS resupply mission slated for Veteran’s Day, all out of Canaveral. The new SpaceX manifest shows the fourth ISS resupply mission as scheduled this year too. That’s new. But I seem to recall that the FH test launch has been showing a 2013 date on the SpaceX manifest for a long time now. It’s not on spaceflightnow.com’s list, though, and neither is the CRS-4 mission.
I’d be, frankly, more inclined to think the FH might get off this year than that CRS-4 will. FH is going up out of Vandenberg and that’s a lot less busy a place than Canaveral. Plus, there are no ISS coordination issues involved.
With the first Orbital Antares/Cygnus mission to ISS having been delayed until September, which spaceflightnow.com’s schedule has been updated to show, even getting CRS-3 up later this year looks iffy now because of docking port congestion on the ISS. The Dragons only stay about a month before returning, but I believe the Cygnus is supposed to hang around longer than that. Maybe if CRS-3 was moved up to next month, CRS-4 could be done in CRS-3’s current slot late in the year. Hard to see how the ISS juggles all that resupply traffic otherwise.
Once again, though, I’d be absolutely delighted to be wrong about this.