Tag: asteroids

A Martian meteorite discovered in Africa is up for auction

9:10 am

A Martian rock that fell as a meteorite in Africa and was discovered by a professional meteorite hunter and is the largest such Mars rock found so far is about to go up for sale by auction.

NWA16788 is the largest known piece of Mars on Earth, and its internal composition suggests it was disgorged from the surface of the Red Planet by an asteroid impact so extreme that it turned some of the meteorite’s minerals into glass.

Looking certain to blow past its lower estimate of US$2.0 million, this monumental 54-lb (24.67-kg) lump of Mars has already been bid to $1,920,000 (inc Buyer’s Premium) 12 days before the on-line hammer falls, and even its $4-milllion upper estimate doesn’t look safe with this much interest so early in an online auction.

The expected high price is partly because of the meteorite’s size, and partly because almost such meteorites are found by scientists working for NASA, and are thus never made available for sale. To have one available for purchase is rare indeed.

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Another interstellar object identified entering the solar system

11:44 am

A11pl3Z's path through the solar system

Astronomers think they have identified another interstellar object that is now entering the solar system.

The dim space rock is currently at about magnitude 18.8. Our new visitor, A11pl3Z, will get its closest to the sun – at about 2 astronomical units (AU), or twice as far as Earth is from the sun – in October. As it reaches perihelion – its closest point to the sun – it should be moving at about 68 km/s relative to the sun, or at about 152,000 miles per hour.

The object’s calculated path through the solar system, shown by the blue line in the graphic to the right, as well as the object’s high speed, are why the astronomers think it is interstellar in origin. Both facts suggest it is coming from beyond the Oort cloud.

This is the third such object discovered, after Oumuamua (whose nature remains somewhat unknown), followed by Comet 21/Borisov.

UPDATE: The object has now been renamed 3I/Atlas. The “3I” indicates it is the third interstellar object discovered, and “Atlas” refers to the discovering telescope survey.

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China releases images of Earth and Moon, taken by its Tianwen-2 asteroid probe

9:40 am

Tianwen-2 images of the Earth and the Moon
For original images go here and here.

According to a report today in China’s state-run press, its Tianwen-2 asteroid sample return spacecraft is operating normally, and has successfully taken pictures of both the Earth and the Moon to test its instrumentation.

Those images are to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here.

The CNSA [China National Space Administration] said that the narrow-field-of-view navigation sensor equipped on the probe recently captured the images of Earth and the moon, demonstrating good functional performance.

The images released include a photograph of Earth obtained by Tianwen-2 when it was approximately 590,000 kilometers away from the planet, as well as a new photograph of the moon captured when it was about the same distance from the moon. After the images were transmitted back to the ground, they were processed and produced by scientific researchers.

The Tianwen-2 probe has currently been in orbit for over 33 days, at a distance from Earth exceeding 12 million kilometers, and it is in good working condition, the CNSA said.

The probe will take about a year to reach asteroid Kamo’oalewa, where it will fly in formation studying it for another year, during which time it will attempt to grab samples by two methods. One method is a copy of the touch-and-go technique used by OSIRIS-REx on Bennu. The second method, dubbed “anchor and attach,” is untried, and involves using four robot arms, each with their own drill.

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Scientists discover unexpected mineral in Ryugu asteroid sample

1:21 pm

Scientists analyzing the samples brought back from the rubble pile asteroid Ryugu by Japan’s Hayabusa-2 spacecraft have now discovered an unexpected mineral, dubbed djerfisherite, that the formation theories of the asteroid say should not be there.

“Djerfisherite is a mineral that typically forms in very reduced environments, like those found in enstatite chondrites, and has never been reported in CI chondrites or other Ryugu grains,” says first and corresponding author Masaaki Miyahara, associate professor at the Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University. “Its occurrence is like finding a tropical seed in Arctic ice—indicating either an unexpected local environment or long-distance transport in the early solar system.”

At present the scientists propose two hypotheses for explaining the mineral. Either it came from another asteroid as Ryugu was congealing, or it formed in Ryugu when conditions raised its temperature above 350 degrees Celsius. The researchers now favor the latter theory, even though the generally accepted histories of Ryugu’s formation never included such conditions.

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Scientists increase the odds asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon in 2032

9:10 am

Asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032
Click for original image.

Using additional data obtained by the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have now refined the orbit of potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 and confirmed that while it will almost certainly not hit the Earth in 2032, the odds of it impacting the Moon have increased.

With the additional data, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid’s orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid’s probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.

The yellow line in the image to the right shows the present range of positions the asteroid could be in as it passes the Moon on that date. It is expected this range will be narrowed further when the asteroid flies past the Earth harmlessly in 2028.

If the asteroid should hit the Moon, the impact will provide scientists a great opportunity to learn more about asteroids and the Moon. If it should miss, it will then be essential to recalculate its orbit to see what will happen on later near approaches, whether the fly-by increased or decreased the chances of a later Earth impact.

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China launches its first asteroid sample return mission

12:28 pm

China today successfully launched Tianwen-2, its first mission attempting to return a sample from a near Earth asteroid, its Long March 3B rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China.

Video of the launch can be found here. The probe will take about a year to reach asteroid Kamo’oalewa, where it will fly in formation studying it for another year, during which time it will attempt to grab samples by two methods. One method is a copy of the touch-and-go technique used by OSIRIS-REx on Bennu. The second method, dubbed “anchor and attach,” is untried, and involves using four robot arms, each with their own drill.

Some data suggests Kamo’oalewa is possibly a fragment from the Moon, but that is not confirmed.

After a year studying Kamo-oalewa, Tienwen-2 will then return past the Earth where it will release its sample capsule. The spacecraft will then travel to Comet 311P/PANSTARRS, reaching it in 2034. This comet is puzzling because it has an asteroid-like orbit but exhibits activity similar to a comet.

As for the launch, there is no word where the Long March 3B’s lower stages and four strap-on boosters, all using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China. It should be noted that the video I link to above was taken by an ordinary citizen watching from a hill nearby, bringing with him a group of children as well. Considering the nature of the rocket’s fuel (which can dissolve your skin if it touches you), China’s attitude is remarkably sanguine to not only drop these stages on its people, but to allow tourists to get so close to launches.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

65 SpaceX
31 China (with one more launch scheduled later today)
6 Rocket Lab (with one launch scheduled for today SCRUBBED)
6 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 65 to 50.

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Engineers pinpoint and bypass fuel line problem on Psyche

9:00 am

Psyche's flight path to the asteroid Psyche
Psyche’s flight path to the asteroid Psyche.
Click for original image.

In troubleshooting a significant drop in pressure in the xenon gas fuel lines to the ion engines of the Psyche asteroid probe, engineers have now pinpointed the problem to a failed valve and have switched to a back-up fuel line.

Powered by two large solar arrays, Psyche’s thrusters ionize and expel xenon gas to gently propel the spacecraft, which gradually picks up speed during its journey. The team paused the four electric thrusters in early April to investigate an unexpected drop in pressure. They determined that a mechanical issue in one of the valves, which open and close to manage the flow of propellant, caused the decrease. Through extensive testing and diagnostic work, the team concluded that a part inside one of the valves is no longer functioning as expected and is obstructing the flow of xenon to the thrusters.

Now that the swap to the backup fuel line is completed, engineers will command the spacecraft’s thrusters to resume firing by mid-June.

This issue had to be resolved before that scheduled firing in June or else Psyche would have fallen off its course to reach the metal asteroid Psyche by August 2029.

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Astronomers discover another object in an orbit so extreme it reaches the outskirts of the theorized Oort Cloud

12:45 pm

Orbits of known Trans-Neptunian Objects

Astronomers analyzing a dark energy survey by a ground-based telescope have discovered what might be another dwarf planet orbiting the Sun, but doing so in an orbit so extreme that it reaches the outskirts of the theorized Oort Cloud more than 151 billion miles out.

This object, dubbed, 2017 OF201, was found in 19 different observations from 2011 to 2018, allowing the scientists to determine its orbit. The map to the right is figure 2 from their paper [pdf], with the calculated orbit of 2017 OF201 indicated in red. As you can see, this new object — presently estimated to be about 450 miles in diameter — is not the first such object found in the outer solar system with such a wide eccentric orbit. However, the object also travels in a very different region than all those other similar discoveries, suggesting strongly that there are a lot more such objects in the distant outer solar system.

Its existence also contradicts a model that proposed the existence of a larger Planet X. That theory posited that this as-yet undetected Planet X was clustering the orbits of those other distant Trans-Neptunian objects shown on the map.

As shown in Figure 2, the longitude of perihelion of 2017 OF201 lies outside the clustering region near π ≈ 60◦ observed among other extreme TNOs [Trans-Nepturnian Objects]. This distinction raises the question of whether 2017 OF201 is dynamically consistent with the Planet X hypothesis, which suggests that a distant massive planet shepherds TNOs into clustered orbital configurations. Siraj et al. (2025) computed the most probable orbit for a hypothetical Planet X by requiring that it both reproduces the observed clustering in the orbits of extreme TNOs.

…These results suggest that the existence of 2017 OF201 may be difficult to reconcile with this particular instantiation of the Planet X hypothesis. While not definitive, 2017 OF201 provides an additional constraint that complements other challenges to the Planet X scenario, such as observational selection effects and the statistical robustness of the observed clustering.

Planet X might exist, but if so it is likely simple one of many such objects in the outer solar system. It is also likely to be comparable in size to these other objects, which range from Pluto-sized and smaller, making it less unique and less distinct.

In other words, our solar system has almost certainly far more planets than nine (including Pluto).

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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More missions to Apophis when it flies past Earth in 2029?

11:45 am

Apophis' path past the Earth in 2029
A cartoon (not to scale) showing Apophis’s
path in 2029

There were two stories today that heralded the addition of one real and two potential new spacecraft to rendezvous with the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it flies past the Earth on April 13, 2029.

First, the European Space Agency (ESA) awarded a 1.5 million euro contract to the Spanish company Emxys to build a small cubesat that will fly on ESA’s Ramses mission to Apophis. This is the second cubesat now to fly attached to Ramses, with the first designed to use radar to study Apophis’ interior.

The second CubeSat, led by Emxys, will be deployed from the main spacecraft just a few kilometres from Apophis. It will study the asteroid’s shape and geological properties and will carry out an autonomous approach manoeuvre before attempting to land on the surface. If the landing is successful, it will also measure the asteroid’s seismic activity.

Second, American planetary scientists have been lobbying NASA to repurpose the two small Janus spacecraft for a mission to Apophis. These probes were originally built to go to an asteroid as a secondary payload when the Pysche asteroid mission was launched, but when Pysche was delayed they could no longer go that that asteroid on the new launch date. Since then both Janus spacecraft have been in storage, with no place to go.

The scientists say they could easily be repurposed to go to Apophis, but NASA will have to commit to spending the cost for launch, approximately $100 million. NASA officials were not hostile to this idea, but they were also non-committal. I suspect no decision can be made until the new administrator, Jared Isaacman, is confirmed by the Senate and takes office.

Time however is a factor. The longer it takes to make a decision the fewer options there will be to get it to Apophis on time.

At the moment there is only one spacecraft in space and on its way to Apophis, and that is the repurposed Osiris-Rex mission, now called Osiris-Apex. Japan might also send a craft past Apophis as part of its mission to another asteroid.

Learning as much as we can about Apophis is critical, as there is a chance it will impact the Earth sometime in the next two hundred years.

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Psyche asteroid probe experiences an unexplained engine problem

12:36 pm

Psyche's flight path to the asteroid Psyche
Psyche’s flight path to the asteroid Psyche.
Click for original image.

The probe Psyche, presently on its way to the asteroid of the same name, has experienced a thruster issue with its electric ion-type main engine that has forced engineers to postpone further engine use as they troubleshoot the problem.

Psyche began firing its thrusters in May 2024. On April 1, the spacecraft detected a pressure drop in the line that feeds the xenon gas to the thrusters, going from 36 pounds per square inch (psi) to about 26 psi. As designed, the orbiter powered off the thrusters in response to the decrease.

The mission team has chosen to defer thrusting while engineers work to understand the pressure decrease. The mission design supports a pause in thrusting until at least mid-June before the spacecraft would see an effect on its trajectory. The electric propulsion system has two identical fuel lines, and the team may decide to switch to the backup fuel line to resume thrusting.

This mission has been plagued with problems. First its software was completed late, forcing a year delay in its launch. Next it was discovered — too late to fix — that transistors on the spacecraft had not been properly hardened for the hostile environment of space. Engineers hope these transistors “will heal themselves” once in that environment, but there are no guarantees. [My memory is becoming fuzzy. As many of my readers pointed out, this transistor problem was with Europa Clipper, not Psyche.]

Now its electric ion engine, essential to getting it to Psyche, is not working properly.

If this problem is fixed and Pysche resumes engine firing, it is targeting an arrival at the asteroid Psyche in 2029.

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First images from Lucy’s fly-by of asteroid Donaldjohanson

8:57 am

Asteroid Donaldjohanson
Closest view of asteroid DonaldJohanson.
Click for movie.

The science team for the asteroid probe Lucy today released the pictures taken by the spacecraft as it approached the asteroid Donaldjohanson on April 20, 2025, compiled into a short movie.

The asteroid was previously observed to have large brightness variations over a 10-day period, so some of Lucy team members’ expectations were confirmed when the first images showed what appeared to be an elongated contact binary (an object formed when two smaller bodies collide). However, the team was surprised by the odd shape of the narrow neck connecting the two lobes, which looks like two nested ice cream cones.

…From a preliminary analysis of the first available images collected by the spacecraft’s L’LORRI imager, the asteroid appears to be larger than originally estimated, about 5 miles (8 km) long and 2 miles (3.5 km) wide at the widest point. In this first set of high-resolution images returned from the spacecraft, the full asteroid is not visible as the asteroid is larger than the imager’s field of view. It will take up to a week for the team to downlink the remainder of the encounter data from the spacecraft; this dataset will give a more complete picture of the asteroid’s overall shape.

Lucy is now on its way to the orbit of Jupiter, where it will get close-up views of five different Trojan asteroids in 2027, followed by a later visit to another group of Trojans in 2033.

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Japan’s Hayabusa-2 asteroid probe in safe mode

9:29 am

Japan’s Hayabusa-2 asteroid probe, which had successfully dropped off samples from the rubble-pile asteroid Ryugu in 2020 and then was sent on a long journey to visit two more asteroids, has suffered an unknown anomaly and shifted into safe mode to protect its instruments.

Communications between Earth and the spacecraft were stable, however, and teams were investigating the situation and its impact on the extended mission, a machine translation of the post read. JAXA has yet to provide a new update since posting about the anomaly.

If engineers can identify the problem and bring the spacecraft back into full operations, the hope is that it will fly past another asteroid in 2026 on its way to a third in 2031, where it will remain for a period of time doing more detailed observations.

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Lucy’s next asteroid fly-by on April 20, 2025

9:28 am

Lucy's future route through the solar system
Lucy’s route to the asteroids, with its first picture
of Donaldjohanson in lower right, taken in February.
Click for original blink animation.

The science team operating the probe Lucy are now preparing for the spacecraft’s second asteroid fly-by, set of April 20, 2025, and passing within 600 miles of the surface of asteroid Donaldjohanson.

Lucy’s closest approach to Donaldjohanson will occur at 1:51pm EDT on April 20, at a distance of 596 miles (960 km). About 30 minutes before closest approach, Lucy will orient itself to track the asteroid, during which its high-gain antenna will turn away from Earth, suspending communication. Guided by its terminal tracking system, Lucy will autonomously rotate to keep Donaldjohanson in view. As it does this, Lucy will carry out a more complicated observing sequence than was used at Dinkinesh [the first asteroid that Lucy saw up close in 2023]. All three science instruments – the high-resolution greyscale imager called L’LORRI, the color imager and infrared spectrometer called L’Ralph, and the far infrared spectrometer called L’TES – will carry out observation sequences very similar to the ones that will occur at the Trojan asteroids.

However, unlike with Dinkinesh, Lucy will stop tracking Donaldjohanson 40 seconds before the closest approach to protect its sensitive instruments from intense sunlight.

“If you were sitting on the asteroid watching the Lucy spacecraft approaching, you would have to shield your eyes staring at the Sun while waiting for Lucy to emerge from the glare. After Lucy passes the asteroid, the positions will be reversed, so we have to shield the instruments in the same way,” said encounter phase lead Michael Vincent of Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in Boulder, Colorado. “These instruments are designed to photograph objects illuminated by sunlight 25 times dimmer than at Earth, so looking toward the Sun could damage our cameras.”

Unlike most of the Trojan asteroids Lucy will study, Donaldjohanson is a main belt asteroid. It is thought to be only 150 million years old, but its history would be expected to be very different than those Trojan asteroids.

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Astronomers: Potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid belt

12:26 pm

Using new data from ground-based telescopes, astronomers now believe that the potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid belt and is a stony solid body, not a rubble pile.

The study reveals YR4 is a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids. “YR4 spins once every 20 minutes, rotates in a retrograde direction, has a flattened, irregular shape, and is the density of solid rock,” said Bryce Bolin, research scientist with Eureka Scientific and lead author of the study.

You can read the paper here [pdf].

At present calculations suggest it has an almost zero chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, though during that close approach the chances of it hitting the Moon range from 2% to 4%, depending on which scientist you ask.

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Europe’s Hera asteroid probe sends back data from Mars fly-by

1:00 pm

Deimos and Mars as seen by Hera
Click to see full movie.

The European Space Agency (ESA) Hera probe, on its way to study the Didymos/Dimorphos asteroid binary, has successfully sent back images and data obtained during its close-by of Mars yesterday.

The infrared image to the right, a screen capture from a short movie assembled from Hera’s first images, shows the Martian moon Deimos with Mars in the background. The mission scientists have compiled all of these first images taken by Hera to create a short movie, that I have embedded below. From the movie’s caption:

The car-sized Hera spacecraft was about 1000 km away from Deimos as these images were acquired. Deimos orbits approximately 23 500 km from the surface of Mars and is tidally locked, so that this side of the moon is rarely seen. Hera’s TIRI – supplied to the mission by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA – sees in mid-infrared spectral bands to chart surface temperature. Because Deimos lacks an atmosphere, the side of the moon being illuminated by the Sun is considerably warmer than the planet beneath it.

Although it appears as if Deimos is passing in front of Mars from south to north, the image was actually taken as Hera passed very close to Deimos from north to south at high speed.

Deimos appears brighter than Mars. This means that the surface of airless Deimos is hotter than the surface of Mars. The material covering the surface of Deimos has low reflectivity and is pitch black. This allows it to absorb sunlight well and become hotter. In contrast, the surface of Mars is highly reflective, and its atmosphere transports heat from the warm daytime side to the cooler nighttime side. This is why there is a large temperature difference between Mars and Deimos.

These infrared images also tell us the excellent quality of the camera. Note how detailed the features are on the Martian surface. When Hera gets to Didymos/Dimorphos in December 2026 it is going to be able to document those two asteroids in remarkable detail, including the results of the Dart impact on Dimorphos in September 2022.
» Read more

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Europe’s Hera probe to fly past Mars tomorrow

10:22 am

As part of its journey to the binary asteroid Didymos/Dimorphos, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Hera probe will slingshot past Mars tomorrow, obtaining images and data of both the red planet and its moon Deimos.

Three instruments will gather data, a navigational camera, and infrared camera, and a spectral camera, with the goal mostly to calibrate the instruments and make sure they are working as designed. The data won’t be available until the next day, when the ESA will hold a webcast unveiling the images.

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Psyche captures Jupiter and Mars on its way to asteroid Psyche

11:02 am

Jupiter and Mars as seen by Psyche
Click for original image.

As part of routine maintenance and calibration, engineers on January 30, 2025 used the cameras on the Psyche asteroid probe to photograph Jupiter, Mars, and several stars, proving all is well with the spacecraft.

Scientists on the imaging team, led by Arizona State University, also took images of the bright stars Vega and Canopus, which have served as standard calibration sources for astronomers for decades. The team is also using the data to assess the effects of minor wiggles or “jitter” in the spacecraft’s pointing system as it points the cameras to different places in the sky. The observations of Jupiter and Mars also help the team determine how the cameras respond to solar system objects that shine by reflected sunlight, just like the Psyche asteroid.

The starfield pictures shown here are long-exposure (five-second) images captured by each camera. By over-exposing Jupiter to bring out some of the background stars in the Taurus constellation, the imagers were able to capture Jupiter’s fainter Galilean moons as well.

The picture to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, might not be much to look at, but it clearly demonstrates the cameras work and the spacecraft can point accurately, and will work as planned when it arrives at the metal asteroid Psyche in August 2029.

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Astroforge’s Odin spacecraft tumbling and probably be lost

9:09 am

According to a video update by the company’s founder, Matt Gialich, Astroforge’s Odin spacecraft is slowly tumbling, and is likely going to be lost.

Gialich noted that they still have one more possibility to save the spacecraft, but “hope is fading.”

The goal had been to make the first fly-by of an asteroid by a private company, getting data on the M-type asteroid 2022 OB5, thought to be made up largely of nickel-iron which would make it extremely valuable.

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Lucy takes first picture of its next target asteroid

9:12 am

Lucy's future route through the solar system
Lucy’s route to the asteroids. Click for original blink animation.

The asteroid probe Lucy, on its way to the orbit of Jupiter to study numerous Trojan asteroids, has taken its first picture of the the main asteroid belt asteroid Donaldjohanson, which it will pass within 600 miles on April 20, 2025.

The map to the right shows the spacecraft’s looping route to get to the Trojans, with that image of Donaldjohanson in the lower right. Though the asteroid is about two miles side, it will remain an unresolved point of light until the day of the fly-by. This image was taken from a distance of 45 million miles. As for the asteroid’s name:

Asteroid Donaldjohanson is named for anthropologist Donald Johanson, who discovered the fossilized skeleton — called “Lucy” — of a human ancestor. NASA’s Lucy mission is named for the fossil.

After this encounter, Lucy will head to the Trojans, where it will visit its first six asteroids (including two binaries) in 2027-2028.

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New calculations now say asteroid 2024 YR4 will almost certainly not hit the Earth in 2032

9:49 am

According to an announcement from NASA yesterday, the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth in 2032 is now reduced to 0.004%, meaning that it almost certainly not a threat at that time.

There remains a 1.7% chance it will instead impact the Moon in 2032.

These refined calculations were likely achieved by looking not at the asteroid itself (it is now too far away), but at places where it might have been visible to ground-based telescopes in the past, assuming it had an orbit that will hit the Earth in 2032. Since those past observations did not see it, those orbits are thus eliminated, and the threat goes down.

Of course, the uncertainty remains. It also remains important that we obtain more detailed information about this asteroid, because it is still a potential threat to the Earth.

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New observations reduce odds of asteroid 2024 YR4’s 2032 Earth impact to practically zero

9:26 am

The uncertainty of science: According to a short update from NASA late yesterday, new ground-based observations have now reduced the odds that asteroid 2024 YR4’s will hit the Earth in 2032 to only 0.28 percent.

Observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%. NASA’s planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory. With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%.

Expect these numbers to change again in March, when the Webb telescope tracks the asteroid. And do not assume Webb will confirm these numbers. There remains great uncertainty in all these calculations, especially because there is great uncertainty about the size, mass, and make-up of 2024 YR4. It could be anywhere from 130 feet to 320 feet in diameter, and that difference makes these calculations uncertain.

In other words, it remains essential that work should begin on putting together a mission to visit and study this asteroid, now. Though it isn’t large enough to cause a worldwide extinction, it is big enough to do very significant damage, depending on where it hits.

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The uncertainty of science: Astronomers keep changing the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth in 2032

8:53 am

In the past three days three different reports from both NASA and the European Space Agency have given three different percentages for the chances that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032.

On Tuesday, NASA calculated that the space rock had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, while the European Space Agency’s risk assessment sits at 2.8%.

The narrow difference is due to the two agencies’ use of different tools for determining the asteroid’s orbit and modeling its potential impact. But both percentages rise above the 2.7% chance of collision once associated with an asteroid discovered in 2004 called Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock to be spotted within the past two decades.

However, another update shared by NASA on Wednesday showed that 2024 YR4 has a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032, based on new observations now that the full moon has passed. Astronomers have anticipated that such fluctuations are possible as they gather more observational data.

While the media has generally focused mostly on the higher numbers in their knee-jerk “We’re all gonna die” approach to everything, all these different numbers simply illustrate is the generally limited nature of our data about the asteroid’s orbit and its future path. For example because such asteroids are so small, it isn’t just gravity that influences their flight path through the solar system. The Sun’s light pressure can actually have an impact, but to determine how much you need to know the exact size, shape, and rotation of the object. Right now 2024 YR4’s size is estimated to range from 130 to 320 feet in width, determining this effect is presently impossible. Nor is this the only such variable.

At the same time, the data continues to suggest that the chances of this asteroid hitting the Earth are not trivial. The sooner we can find out everything about it the better. Getting a mission to it quickly would be the best way, but so far I have heard little from NASA or anyone about such an idea.

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New calculations raise odds from 1.2% to 2.3% that asteroid will impact Earth in ’32

11:36 am

New calculations have increased the chances that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032 from 1.2% to 2.3%.

Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size. Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across.

There remains great uncertainty in these numbers. We will really not know for certain if the asteroid will hit us until its orbit is studied for the next few years. Moreover, its size and make-up is also not known precisely yet. It could be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet. If the larger size, it poses a much greater risk, though that risk shrinks again if it is a rubble-pile asteroid that will simply break apart upon hitting the atmosphere.

This is not something to take lightly. Though the asteroid is not a world-destroyer, it does have the ability to cause significant damage, depending on where it hits. As its arrival is not for eight years, there is even time to quickly put together an unmanned mission to study it. (In the past I would never said this, but the domination of private enterprise in our present competitive space industry makes many things possible that were impossible when NASA and the government ran everything.)

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Samples from the asteroid Bennu reshape entirely our understanding of the solar system’s early make-up

11:11 am

Nightingale landing site on Bennu
The sample site on Bennu, with OSIRIS-REx
superimposed for scale. Click for full image.

First, I hope my readers will notice that — unlike NASA and the entire press — I make no mention in my headline above of the discovery of a “mix of life’s ingredients” or “the key building blocks of life” from the samples brought back by the probe OSIRIS-REx from the asteroid Bennu.

This is the game NASA does all the time, to hint at the discovery of life when this is not the real discovery. NASA does it because it knows that if you hint at such a discovery, the press will go crazy and give you lots of press.

The real news from the two papers published this week, available here and here, however, is more fundamental. Before the samples from Bennu and Ryugu (brought back by the Japanese probe Hayabusa-2) had arrived, our understanding of the make-up and chemistry of the early solar system was very incomplete and badly biased. The only asteroid samples we had of carbonaceous chondrite asteroids, the most primitive and fragile carbon-rich asteroids in the solar system, had came from meteorites that had survived the journey through the Earth’s atmosphere. Thus, the only material that survived was robust enough to do so. The more fragile molecules however were always destroyed and thus missing from meteorites, even though it was very clear from spectroscopy of these asteroids in the solar system that such molecules did exist, and likely formed the majority of these asteroids’ make-up.

Thus, though carbonaceous chondrite asteroids represent the early solar system, our understanding of them was warped and very incomplete. The whole point of both missions to Bennu and Ryugu was to fill in this data, to get a more complete census of the real make-up of the early solar system.

The two papers published this week have given us that. That’s their real discovery.
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Astroforge names the target asteroid for its first commercial interplanetary mission

3:48 pm

The asteroid mining startup Astroforge today finally named the asteroid that its first commercial interplanetary mission will do a close fly-by, set to launch as a secondary payload on a SpaceX Falcon 9 on February 26, 2025.

The mining startup is headed to asteroid 2022 OB5 as soon as Feb. 26, launching alongside Intuitive Machines’ second lunar mission. CEO Matt Gialich told Payload that they picked that asteroid for the initial mission for a few reasons:

  • It’s under a kilometer wide.
  • It could be a high-value, metal-filled M-type asteroid.
  • AstroForge’s spacecraft will fly by the asteroid when it’s close to Earth, so imagery can be sent back quickly.

This will be Astroforge’s second mission, the first being an Earth-orbit demo flight to prove out its systems. The spacecraft, dubbed Odin, was quickly prepped when the planned satellite satellite failed vibration testing. The company quickly replaced it with the cubesat intended for the third mission.

The company is also proud that the entire cost for this asteroid mission is just $6.5 million. “Hopefully we’re going to show the world that NASA doesn’t need to be funded for $5B missions when we can do it for much less,” said Gialich. The company also announced it has signed a multi-launch contract with the rocket startup Stoke Space, though no specifics were released.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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200-foot-wide asteroid has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth in 2032

10:12 am

New data that has refined the solar orbit of 200-foot-wide asteroid discovered in 2024, dubbed 2024 YR4, suggests it has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032.

“Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83,” Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. “This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever.”

Amateur astronomer Tony Dunn shared a simulation of the asteroid approach on his X feed. “Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this.”

The asteroid is rated three on the Torino risk scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants close attention from astronomers and an over 1% chance of impact.

Though most reports say the asteroid is about 200 feet across, there is great uncertainty in that number. It could also be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet.

At the moment the risk of impact is still small. If it does occur, there is a chance it could either cause a major airburst similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor impact in 2013 that injured more than 400 people, or even impact the ground or ocean. If it hits the ocean there is a considerable risk of tsunamis. At the moment it appears its path will cross from South America to Africa in the southern hemisphere, but this data remains very uncertain at this time.

Though there will be doom-sayers, overall this is not a world destroyer. It carries some risk, but we have eight years to refine our knowledge significantly, especially when it will make a close approach of five million miles in 2028. At that time scientists should be able to better measure its size as well as its future orbit, determining more precisely whether it will even hit the Earth in 2032.

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Engineers confirm OSIRIS-APEX successfully completed its second of six close fly-bys of the Sun

10:19 am

Engineers have now confirmed that the asteroid probe OSIRIS-APEX successfully completed its second of six close fly-bys of the Sun in September, using its solar panels to shield its instruments from the Sun’s heat and light.

On Jan. 23 the mission team completed its review of all the data recorded by the spacecraft and its instruments during the solar pass [about 46 million miles from the Sun]. “There were no surprises, and the spacecraft is operating well,” said Mike Moreau, OSIRIS-APEX deputy project manager at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

As planned, on Sept. 2, 2024, OSIRIS-APEX passed through perihelion — the phase of its orbit closest to the Sun. The trajectory to Apophis takes the spacecraft much closer to the Sun than it was originally designed for. Between Aug. 1 and Oct. 13, the spacecraft was configured in a special orientation that uses one of the solar arrays to shade the most heat-sensitive components, keeping them within safe operating temperatures.

Because of the improvised orientation during the close approach, full data communications was not possible until months afterward. Only now have engineers completed their analysis.

OSIRIS-APEX original mission was to visit the asteroid Bennu and return samples from it to Earth. Once that mission was successfully completed, the probe was repurposed to go to the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it makes its next close approach to the Earth in April 2029.

I have embedded below a short video showing the spacecraft’s journey to get to Apophis.
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Lucy about to do close fly-by of Earth in order to slingshot it towards the orbit of Jupiter

9:33 am

Lucy's future route through the solar system
Lucy’s route to the asteroids. Click for original image.

On December 12, 2024 the asteroid probe Lucy will do a very close fly-by of Earth, dipping to only 220 miles of the ground and thus giving it the velocity to fly through asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter and on to the Trojan asteroids that orbit with Jupiter.

During the gravity assist, the Lucy spacecraft, from Earth’s perspective, will approach from the direction of the Sun. This means that observers on Earth will not be able to see Lucy approaching, as it will be lost in the Sun’s glare. Lucy’s trajectory will bring the spacecraft very close to the Earth, even lower in altitude than the International Space Station. To ensure the safety of the spacecraft as it passes through this region full of Earth-orbiting satellites and debris, NASA has procedures to anticipate and avoid potential collisions. If needed, the spacecraft will execute a small trajectory correction maneuver 12 hours before closest approach to alter the time of closest approach by 1 or 2 seconds — enough to avoid a potential collision.

Shortly after sunset, keen observers in the Hawaiian Islands may be able to catch a glimpse of Lucy as the spacecraft approaches Earth before it passes into Earth’s shadow at 6:14 p.m. HST. Lucy will speed over the continental U.S. in darkness, travelling over 33,000 miles per hour (14.8 kilometers per second), and emerge from Earth’s shadow 20 minutes later at 11:34 p.m. EST. At that time, Lucy may be visible to observers with a telescope in the western regions of Africa and the eastern regions of South America as sunlight reflects off the spacecraft’s large solar panels (observers in the eastern United States will be looking at the much dimmer “back” side of the solar panels, making Lucy harder to see

No imagery is planned for this flyby in order to protect the spacecraft’s science instruments.

After the fly-by, Lucy’s next target will be the main belt asteroid Donaldjohanson in April 2025. Its arrival in Jupiter orbit will follow in 2027.

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Reanalysis of Webb data discovers more than a hundred very small main-belt asteroids

11:42 am

Portrait of all 138 new asteroids
Click for original image.

Using data from the Webb Space Telescope in an unexpected way, astronomers have discovered 138 asteroids in the main asteroid belt, most of which are the smallest so far detected.

The picture to the right shows all 138 asteroids. The researchers had originally used Webb to study the atmospheres of the exoplanets that orbit the star TRAPPIST-1. They then thought, why not see if their data also showed the existence of asteroids in our own solar system. By blinking between multiple images they might spot the movement of solar system objects moving across the field of view. From the press release:

The team applied this approach to more than 10 000 [Webb] images of the TRAPPIST-1 field, which were originally obtained to search for signs of atmospheres around the system’s inner planets. By chance TRAPPIST-1 is located right on the ecliptic, the plane of the solar system where all planets and most asteroids lie and orbit around the Sun. After processing the images, the researchers were able to spot eight known asteroids in the main belt. They then looked further and discovered 138 new asteroids, all within tens of meters in diameter — the smallest main belt asteroids detected to date. They suspect a few asteroids are on their way to becoming near-Earth objects, while one is likely a Trojan — an asteroid that trails Jupiter.

The data is insufficient for most of these objects to chart their orbits precisely. Based on this one single study, however, it suggests that pointing Webb along the ecliptic in almost any direction will detect more such objects. Do this enough and astronomers might actually be able to get a rough census of the asteroid belt’s population.

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