Tag Archives: oversampling

The just released Pew poll which shows Obama with a 10 point lead oversampled Democrats by 19 points.

Here we go again: The just released Pew poll which shows Obama with a 10 point lead oversampled Democrats by 19 points!

This is disgraceful work, and should discredit Pew as a pollster. There is no chance in hell that Democrats are going to outvote Republicans by 19 points come November. They didn’t even do that in 2008, when Obama won handily. For Pew to release a poll with a sampling that badly skewed smacks of incompetence, fraud, political manipulation, or a willingness to deny reality.

Another set of pro-Obama polls that oversample Democrats.

Living in a dream world: Another set of pro-Obama polls that oversample Democrats.

Why CBS and the New York Times keep doing this mystifies me. It won’t persuade anyone to vote for Obama, and it might even give his supporters the false impression that he is doing better than he is. For example, contrast these results with this new Gallup poll, which found Obama’s popularity below 50 percent in all but 13 states. These are bad numbers for an incumbent, and they are almost certainly more predictive, as Gallup generally samples Democrats and Republicans more accurately, based on recent voting patterns.

The only explanation I can think of for this oversampling is an unwillingness to face the reality that Obama and his leftwing policies are not popular. It is as if CBS and the New York Times are standing there with their fingers in their ears, chanting “la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la!” loudly so they don’t have to hear what they don’t like.