NASA appears to be about to drop Boeing’s Starliner from its manned mission schedule in 2025
In a short announcement outlining its planned two manned ISS missions for 2025, NASA by omission revealed that it now does not expect Boeing’s Starliner capsule to be ready for the second manned flight in July 2025, as previously planned.
Previous updates had noted what capsule would launch the astronauts, with the plan to have Dragon launch the February 2025 crew and Starliner the July 2025 crew. It was assumed in those earlier updates that Starliner would be certified for operational use after the completion of its first manned demo this past summer. This new update does not provide this capsule information, instead saying the following:
The timing and configuration of Starliner’s next flight will be determined once a better understanding of Boeing’s path to system certification is established. This determination will include considerations for incorporating Crew Flight Test lessons learned, approvals of final certification products, and operational readiness.
Meanwhile, NASA is keeping options on the table for how best to achieve system certification, including windows of opportunity for a potential Starliner flight in 2025.
It appears NASA is pulling back from that certification, based on the various technical issues experienced by Starliner during that demo mission, issues that eventually forced NASA to return the capsule unmanned. As such, this announcement yesterday suggests that there is serious negotiations going on between Boeing and NASA as to what will happen next. It appears the agency wants Boeing to fly another demo mission — on Boeing’s dime — before putting astronauts on board and paying for a mission. The Starliner contract was fixed price, and until Boeing successfully completes that manned demo mission NASA is not obligated to pay it any additional funds.
I suspect Boeing is telling NASA it can’t afford to do this, and if NASA doesn’t pony up some bucks for that demo flight it will simply not do it, and NASA will be stuck with just SpaceX as its manned ferry to ISS.
Unconfirmed reports had suggested NASA was considering issuing Boeing a separate contract to do a cargo mission to ISS using Starliner, thus allowing it to pay the company to fly a test mission outside of the fixed price contract. This NASA update yesterday suggests these negotiations are on going, but likely cannot be completed until after the election. A new administration might balk at such a deal.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
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In a short announcement outlining its planned two manned ISS missions for 2025, NASA by omission revealed that it now does not expect Boeing’s Starliner capsule to be ready for the second manned flight in July 2025, as previously planned.
Previous updates had noted what capsule would launch the astronauts, with the plan to have Dragon launch the February 2025 crew and Starliner the July 2025 crew. It was assumed in those earlier updates that Starliner would be certified for operational use after the completion of its first manned demo this past summer. This new update does not provide this capsule information, instead saying the following:
The timing and configuration of Starliner’s next flight will be determined once a better understanding of Boeing’s path to system certification is established. This determination will include considerations for incorporating Crew Flight Test lessons learned, approvals of final certification products, and operational readiness.
Meanwhile, NASA is keeping options on the table for how best to achieve system certification, including windows of opportunity for a potential Starliner flight in 2025.
It appears NASA is pulling back from that certification, based on the various technical issues experienced by Starliner during that demo mission, issues that eventually forced NASA to return the capsule unmanned. As such, this announcement yesterday suggests that there is serious negotiations going on between Boeing and NASA as to what will happen next. It appears the agency wants Boeing to fly another demo mission — on Boeing’s dime — before putting astronauts on board and paying for a mission. The Starliner contract was fixed price, and until Boeing successfully completes that manned demo mission NASA is not obligated to pay it any additional funds.
I suspect Boeing is telling NASA it can’t afford to do this, and if NASA doesn’t pony up some bucks for that demo flight it will simply not do it, and NASA will be stuck with just SpaceX as its manned ferry to ISS.
Unconfirmed reports had suggested NASA was considering issuing Boeing a separate contract to do a cargo mission to ISS using Starliner, thus allowing it to pay the company to fly a test mission outside of the fixed price contract. This NASA update yesterday suggests these negotiations are on going, but likely cannot be completed until after the election. A new administration might balk at such a deal.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
It CAN’T be a question of MONEY! How is it possible for MR. MUSK to be able to design, build, launch, and CATCH his rockets while the others don’t seem to be able to do much more than what was done half a CENTURY ago?? Could it be just ‘dumb luck”? Could it be “magic”?? Could it be that COMMON SENSE and INTELLIGENCE make a difference? If the average American REALLY knew the TRUTH about how much “Our” Government WASTES there would be massive demonstrations and people put in prisons! Boeing has benefited to GREAT extent with their lucrative “no show” contracts with their FRIENDS at NASA and elsewhere. Hopefully some enterprising Congressional Committee will invite all of them to come explain how they have actually USED the BILLION$ and why they haven’t PRODUCED a working product! No, if the cackler somehow manages to steal this election, the Feds might just demand that Mr. Musk SHARE his secrets with the others! If you thought the Gov’t was crazy for going after Mr. Musk because he wouldn’t HIRE ILLEGALS since it IS ILLEGAL to HIRE ILLEGALS in his area of National Security, then you better brace yourself for the special kind of crazy that a harris/walz regime will do!
Well, this is a sadness. A powerhouse company’s design brought down by mere thrusters. What a tragedy that Aerojet Rocketdyne and Boeing didn’t communicate well enough to make a good design for Starliner’s thrusters.
Hopefully, Sierra Space will quickly come up with their manned Dream Chaser so that SpaceX still has competition for manned space. India’s manned spacecraft may be able to also provide competition, but I doubt that Russia or China will truly compete with commercial space companies. Spain’s PLD Space company may eventually build a manned spacecraft, Lince, but that may be farther in the future than a manned Dream Chaser.
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BLSinSC asked: “How is it possible for MR. MUSK to be able to design, build, launch, and CATCH his rockets while the others don’t seem to be able to do much more than what was done half a CENTURY ago?? Could it be just ‘dumb luck”? Could it be “magic”?? Could it be that COMMON SENSE and INTELLIGENCE make a difference?”
Several things seem to be happening here.
The other companies are doing what they have done for the past half century. They are designing their rockets and satellites for success. Musk fired some Starlink management who were working in a similar way; they wanted to make the updated version of the satellite before launching any satellites, and Musk wanted to launch and test the obsolete first version in order to learn what they could from them. (Perhaps in the olden days this could have been seen as a waste of one of the precious and few launch vehicles, but reusable vehicles has changed that landscape.) The other satellite constellation companies are doing as those managers were doing and are not launching any satellites until they have the operational version. The launch companies also do this, because they are not developing wildly new engines or vehicles, so their first launch is the operational version.
SpaceX is in another development phase. Just as they used several Falcon 9 boosters as test units, trying to successfully land them in the ocean then trying their drone ship, they are testing similar attempts with a larger-scale Super Heavy and testing a bizarre, yet improved, version of a Space Shuttle. The areas where these two craft are having difficulties are expected areas. That method of separation on integrated test 1 was a surprise that had not been well known in advance and few, if any, videos were released in advance explaining such a bizarre separation method.
SpaceX is pushing the envelope of our knowledge of rockets. If you read The Right Stuff by Tom Wolfe, this is what they were doing in the 1950s and 1960s at Edwards (formerly Muroc Air Force Base). This is where they tried new things and were not afraid to fail or break things. That is what it takes to learn how to do new things. SpaceX is doing this, too. It is not dumb luck, magic, or even a secret; it is using the same development tactics that worked three quarters of a century ago in jet and rocket aviation. One difference is that SpaceX is doing much of its development in view of the public. Another difference is that SpaceX’s tests are all unmanned, so far, reducing risk to life and limb.
SpaceX’s philosophy with its Raptor engine is different than other companies, too. SpaceX is pushing that engine to its limits and using it near those limits, perhaps around 90%. Other companies are proud that they learn their engines’ limits then back off for safety. An advantage to having so many engines is that if one or two — or maybe even three — are lost, then the rest have a chance to make up for the loss. Starship did pretty well on its first integrated flight test, despite so many engine failures.