France and Germany in the European Space Agency are at loggerheads about the best way to compete in the launch market.
The competition heats up: France and Germany in the European Space Agency are in serious disagreement about whether to replace the Ariane 5 or upgrade it.
The French space agency, CNES, quietly backed by Europe’s Arianespace launch consortium, has argued that the current Ariane 5 heavy-lift vehicle has only a fragile hold on its current 50 percent commercial market share. Just as important, according to the French reasoning, is that the entire Ariane 5 system, including its ground infrastructure, is expensive to operate and likely to remain so. Because money is short in Europe, it would be preferable to move immediately to a next-generation vehicle that would carry payloads ranging from 2,500 kilograms to 6,000 kilograms — with an extension to 8,000 kilograms — into geostationary transfer orbit, one at a time. This modular vehicle ultimately would replace not only today’s Ariane 5, but also the Russian Soyuz rocket that is now operating from Europe’s Guiana Space Center in French Guiana.
Set against this reasoning are industrial policy issues raised by the German space agency, DLR, and by Astrium, which is Ariane 5’s prime contractor. They say Europe needs to complete development of an upgraded Ariane 5 — at a cost of about 1.4 billion euros ($1.8 billion) — before embarking on a decade-long development of an Ariane 6 whose cost and industrial work-share distribution are unknown. [emphasis mine]
It is very clear that ESA has recognized that once Falcon 9 becomes completely operational, it will be difficult to get anyone to buy tickets on the very expensive Ariane 5. From the article it appears the battle centers on the fact that the French realize this, while the Germans are willing to look the other way.
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The competition heats up: France and Germany in the European Space Agency are in serious disagreement about whether to replace the Ariane 5 or upgrade it.
The French space agency, CNES, quietly backed by Europe’s Arianespace launch consortium, has argued that the current Ariane 5 heavy-lift vehicle has only a fragile hold on its current 50 percent commercial market share. Just as important, according to the French reasoning, is that the entire Ariane 5 system, including its ground infrastructure, is expensive to operate and likely to remain so. Because money is short in Europe, it would be preferable to move immediately to a next-generation vehicle that would carry payloads ranging from 2,500 kilograms to 6,000 kilograms — with an extension to 8,000 kilograms — into geostationary transfer orbit, one at a time. This modular vehicle ultimately would replace not only today’s Ariane 5, but also the Russian Soyuz rocket that is now operating from Europe’s Guiana Space Center in French Guiana.
Set against this reasoning are industrial policy issues raised by the German space agency, DLR, and by Astrium, which is Ariane 5’s prime contractor. They say Europe needs to complete development of an upgraded Ariane 5 — at a cost of about 1.4 billion euros ($1.8 billion) — before embarking on a decade-long development of an Ariane 6 whose cost and industrial work-share distribution are unknown. [emphasis mine]
It is very clear that ESA has recognized that once Falcon 9 becomes completely operational, it will be difficult to get anyone to buy tickets on the very expensive Ariane 5. From the article it appears the battle centers on the fact that the French realize this, while the Germans are willing to look the other way.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
“It is very clear that ESA has recognized that once Falcon 9 becomes completely operational, it will be difficult to get anyone to buy tickets on the very expensive Ariane 5.”
From your linked to article: ““On the commercial side, the market is divided into satellites weighing 5,000 to 6,000 kilograms, and satellites weighing around 3,000 kilograms. The competition is very clear: On the 6,000-kilogram end it is [Russia’s] Proton. On the 3,000-kilogram end it is [Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s] Falcon 9.”
http://www.arianespace.com/launch-services-ariane5/ariane-5-intro.asp
“As the world’s reference for heavy-lift launchers, Ariane 5 carries payloads weighing more than 10 metric tons to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) and over 20 metric tons into low-Earth orbit (LEO) – with a high degree of accuracy mission after mission.”
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/falcon9.html
“The Block 2 Falcon 9 would be able to lift nearly 10.5 tonnes to LEO from Cape Canaveral and 4.54 tonnes to a 28.5 deg GTO.”
– Ariane 5 Payload to LEO – 20 Metric tons
– Falcon 9 payload to LEO – 10.5 Metric tons
The Ariane 5 payload capacity is almost twice that of the Falcon 9 so they or not really competitors. Additionally, your linked to article lists payload capacities; but does not specify orbits (LEO or Geosynchronous) so it is hard to make a comparison. The Falcon 9 (block 2) capacity is (for instance) to LEO 10,500 kilograms barely a third of the 3,000 kilograms suggested in the article (even if they are referring to LEO).
“The Falcon 9 (block 2) capacity is (for instance) to LEO 10,500 kilograms barely a third of the 3,000 kilograms suggested in the article (even if they are referring to LEO).”
I (embarrassingly obviously) made a mistake in that sentence (never post while multitasking). The point I intended to make was that the Falcon 9 is not a potential competitor to the Ariane 5 (that would be the Russian Proton) but to the United Launch Alliance (ULA) Delta 4 Medium.
http://spaceworld.weebly.com/delta-4-medium.html
“The Delta IV Medium (Delta 9040) is the most basic Delta IV. It features a single CBC and a modified Delta III second stage, with 4-meter liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen tanks and a 4-meter payload fairing derived from the Delta III fairing. The Delta IV Medium is capable of launching 4,210 kg (9,285 lb) to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO).”
When (and If) you hear of ULA second guessing the Delta IV Medium, then would be the time to start suggesting that fear of the Falcon 9 has something to do with it.