One very good sign that North Korea’s recent warlike threats are merely posturing.
One very good sign that North Korea’s recent warlike threats are merely posturing.
[W]e do have one pretty good metric with which to judge the country’s intentions: the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The Kaesong Industrial Complex, located just across the northern side of the border, is staffed by South and North Koreans. It can’t function without Pyongyang’s daily okay. If the North suddenly shuts down Kaesong at some point, watch out. But as long as it’s still running, as it has been throughout the provocations and tensions of the last few weeks, we can probably – probably — assume that North Korea is not actually planning to launch a war.
And the complex is still in operation.
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One very good sign that North Korea’s recent warlike threats are merely posturing.
[W]e do have one pretty good metric with which to judge the country’s intentions: the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The Kaesong Industrial Complex, located just across the northern side of the border, is staffed by South and North Koreans. It can’t function without Pyongyang’s daily okay. If the North suddenly shuts down Kaesong at some point, watch out. But as long as it’s still running, as it has been throughout the provocations and tensions of the last few weeks, we can probably – probably — assume that North Korea is not actually planning to launch a war.
And the complex is still in operation.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
My impressions of what goes on in North Korea is that the elite have grown up on American movies and this posturing is a kind of dramatic play acting that is engaged in to keep their people under the impression that a hot war status is a continuing condition. Sadam Husien had a similar dramatic approach.
The only people that buy what they are selling are their own country wide oppressed people, they must be able to justify the poor condition of their lives some how. The international sanctions levied because of their bad behavior regarding nukes I believe is where their problems stem from and that is certainly driven by the U.S., as it should be.
Which is not to say that they are not dangerous, but when you look at the reality of the situation that is the conclusion I come to.
I think it is also a way for young UN to make his bones in the eyes of his people. Shoot a couple of shells around make some noise, declare victory and wa la, you have a war hero president. Other than that he is an unaccomplished boy.
As I review some of the pictures being released by the North Koreans themselves this whole thing looks more like a staged P.R. job than preparations for all out war. The shots of K.J. UN are all of him reviewing maps and looking through binoculars he is being made to look like he is large and in charge. A young man with no experience being made to look like he is experienced. Not that it means that he is not dangerous, it might mean that he is more dangerous, kind of like another inexperienced leader I know.
There is a lot of BS and lies flying around the world today. BS and lies.
Has anyone noticed that North Korea’s bombastic attacks have increased geometrically since Dennis Rodman has returned to the states? Perhaps we have underestimated his calming influence.
Maybe we need to send him back and leave him there permanently as a peacekeeping gesture?
He could become our permanent ambassador to the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
“Tensions escalated further over the weekend when North Korea threatened to shutter a factory complex it operates just inside its border with South Korea. The eight-year-old Kaesong industrial park is a vital source of cash for North Korea, with more than 50,000 citizens earning close to $100 million annually. The factory, which has continued to operate normally — with hundreds of South Korean workers traveling to work there each day — has withstood prior strains between the two Koreas. U.S. experts say its shutdown would be grim news.”
Hi Lino,
Glad to see you commenting again! I especially liked your earlier comment about Rodman and North Korea.
Do you have a link for this quote?
The Dennis Rodman thing was not something that just happened, I think it is a part the P.R. job being executed by the leaders. The people may well think that Rodman is a high status American and the fact that their president was hanging out with him brings status to him. That may well be their rational (I didn’t say it was a sane rational).
The psychology in a place like N Korea must be very, very strange. The people being so isolated and controlled to the max and left to interpret the world based on information disseminated by their government only and any pieces of information that happens to filter in. Disinformation goes on here also, so much more than we think, but N Korea must be more like a communist “Trueman” show.
http://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?hpt=hp_t2#/video/world/2013/04/02/tsr-foreman-magic-wall-north-korea.cnn
Now the situation has worsened. Access for South Koreans to the complex is being denied…..
http://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?hpt=hp_t2#/video/world/2013/04/02/tsr-foreman-magic-wall-north-korea.cnn
I’m not very good at pasting these links, but CNN is reporting that South Koreans are being barred from entering the complex. They can leave but they cannot return.
My sense is that this lunatic is going to send himself down a path that he cannot control. Events can sometimes take on a life of their own. He doesn’t have the sense to realize the reactions to his words and actions.
Unless a military coup rescues the situation, this could proceed in a very bad way.
I have found a link to this story, from Reuters, and have posted it on the main page.
Very bad news indeed.
There are quite a few scary places in the world…..and for good reasons.
This one is at the top of my list. If we can get to Derby Day without a major eruption here, I think we’ll be lucky.