A science poster released at an American Geophysical Union conference this week finds again that the global warming climate models used by policy makers have all failed to predict what has actually happened.
The uncertainty of science: A science poster released at an American Geophysical Union conference this week finds again that the global warming climate models used by policy makers have all failed to predict what has actually happened.
Some devastating quotes from the poster:
[W]e find that at the global scale, climate models are on the verge of failing to adequately capture observed changes in the average temperature over the past 10 to 30 years—the period of the greatest human influence on the atmosphere. At the regional scale, specifically across the United States, climate models largely fail to replicate known precipitation changes both in sign as well as magnitude.
On the first count, the near inability of climate model projections to contain the observed global temperature trends, it is likely that the climate model overestimation of the earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity—an overestimation which averages about 40 percent—is playing a large role in the models’ gross exaggeration of the current rate of temperature rise (which, for example, has been virtually zero during the past 16 years).
On the second count, the general inability of general circulation models to even get the sign of the observed precipitation changes across the U.S. correct, much less the magnitude, likely stems from the complexities of the climate system on spatial and temporal scales that lie far beneath those of current generation GCMs [general climate models].
The models predicted an increase in global temperature. In the past 16 years there has been no increase. The models predicted an increase in drought and a drop in precipitation. Instead, there has been more rain.
And from the conclusion:
It is impossible to present reliable future projections from a collection of climate models which generally cannot simulate observed change. As a consequence, we recommend that unless/until the collection of climate models can be demonstrated to accurately capture observed characteristics of known climate changes, policymakers should avoid basing any decisions upon projections made from them. Further, those policies which have already be established using projections from these climate models should be revisited.
The poster also notes that the IPCC and EPA rely heavily on these models, none of which are actually reliable.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
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The uncertainty of science: A science poster released at an American Geophysical Union conference this week finds again that the global warming climate models used by policy makers have all failed to predict what has actually happened.
Some devastating quotes from the poster:
[W]e find that at the global scale, climate models are on the verge of failing to adequately capture observed changes in the average temperature over the past 10 to 30 years—the period of the greatest human influence on the atmosphere. At the regional scale, specifically across the United States, climate models largely fail to replicate known precipitation changes both in sign as well as magnitude.
On the first count, the near inability of climate model projections to contain the observed global temperature trends, it is likely that the climate model overestimation of the earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity—an overestimation which averages about 40 percent—is playing a large role in the models’ gross exaggeration of the current rate of temperature rise (which, for example, has been virtually zero during the past 16 years).
On the second count, the general inability of general circulation models to even get the sign of the observed precipitation changes across the U.S. correct, much less the magnitude, likely stems from the complexities of the climate system on spatial and temporal scales that lie far beneath those of current generation GCMs [general climate models].
The models predicted an increase in global temperature. In the past 16 years there has been no increase. The models predicted an increase in drought and a drop in precipitation. Instead, there has been more rain.
And from the conclusion:
It is impossible to present reliable future projections from a collection of climate models which generally cannot simulate observed change. As a consequence, we recommend that unless/until the collection of climate models can be demonstrated to accurately capture observed characteristics of known climate changes, policymakers should avoid basing any decisions upon projections made from them. Further, those policies which have already be established using projections from these climate models should be revisited.
The poster also notes that the IPCC and EPA rely heavily on these models, none of which are actually reliable.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
The models predict the need for widespread government intervention in every industry and human activity. Therefore they are correct.
I’m thinking of making my own models and profiting from them.
For three billion dollars, I will tell the government anything they want to hear!
“. . . climate models largely fail to replicate known precipitation changes both in sign as well as magnitude.”
I believe that’s science-speak for “These models are complete BS.”
This is not about climate or global warming, this is about control and Social justice and redistribution of American wealth, the biggest loser to be the middle class.