95% of all climate models agree: The observations must be wrong.
“95% of all climate models agree: The observations must be wrong.”
I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc. These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.
I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).
When 90 different climate model predictions are compared with the actual data, all but two vastly overestimate the amount of heating that has occurred since 1979. In other words, these models are wrong, they are undependable, and they shouldn’t be used to decide policy by any politician.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
“95% of all climate models agree: The observations must be wrong.”
I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc. These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.
I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).
When 90 different climate model predictions are compared with the actual data, all but two vastly overestimate the amount of heating that has occurred since 1979. In other words, these models are wrong, they are undependable, and they shouldn’t be used to decide policy by any politician.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Science practiced like theologians or science practiced like skeptics…well, .it’s obvious which way the “consensus” currently practices.
How pathetic. They’ve relied so heavily on their computer modeling in the name of their credibility, their grants and their agenda that they can’t or won’t see the proverbial forest from the trees.
If I were to make up 90 different climate predictions and two of them were close to being accurate, does that mean that I am able to make predictions about what the climate is likely to do?
Data doesn’t matter. Consensus does. What do you think this is, science or something?
And of course the 2 out of 90 that even came close were ignored.
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/ice-expert-predicts-lake-superior-will-completely-freeze-over
Cyclical or because human beings exist?
As I’ve said before, the key to effective computer models is calibration. If your model cannot predict past results, it can’t predict future probabilities. I’ve not seen any evidence that climate models were calibrated. The whole enterprise is bushwah. Until and unless climate models are calibrated, I see no reason to put any faith in them.
Remembering the old TV show Dragnet….Srgt. Friday plainly stating “Just the facts, Mam.” Wishing that was still true today.
Should we believe those who state “facts” that fly in the face of common sense and actual data. I’m old enough to have seen the 40 year weather cycle twice. But then those “climate scientists” have the degrees, BS, MS, PhD… we all know what BS is, MS is More of the Same, and PhD is just Piled Higher and Deeper. “Who,” Galileo asked, “would dare assert that we know all there is to be known?” He was imprisoned by those who held to the “scientific consensus of the universe” of the day, about the time of the Jamestown settlement. Like the weather, man and human nature… the more thy change, the more thy stay the same. My high school physics teacher used to fool us all the time by presenting a demonstration that the the class all agreed would have certain outcomes, but when executed, would have an entirely different result. Then he would recite, “Science by consensus is ideology; science is only science when everybody can get the same result. There is no consensus in science, just facts.”
I listen to J. Batchelor. regularly. His interview with you mentioned an independent scientist to published a review of the number of scientists was far different than that presently suggested by climate change “believers”. What was that reference? Thanks
See this post: A close review of the sources cited in the four studies that claimed a 97% scientific consensus supporting global warming has found that claim to be false.