Could North Korea use its missiles to fill orbital space with debris?
Link here. While most of the discussion about the missile threat from North Korea has focused on the possibility of it detonating a nuclear bomb high enough to cause an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that would disable most electronic equipment, this article notes that they could much more easily do almost as much harm by simply using their ballistic missiles to fill low-Earth-orbit (LEO) space with space junk, thus disabling much of the world’s military surveillance and reconnaissance satellites.
I am not sure how much of a threat this might be, but I find the article somewhat worrisome because it proposes something that seems quite reasonable and doable, with the technology that North Korea appears to have, right this minute.
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Link here. While most of the discussion about the missile threat from North Korea has focused on the possibility of it detonating a nuclear bomb high enough to cause an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that would disable most electronic equipment, this article notes that they could much more easily do almost as much harm by simply using their ballistic missiles to fill low-Earth-orbit (LEO) space with space junk, thus disabling much of the world’s military surveillance and reconnaissance satellites.
I am not sure how much of a threat this might be, but I find the article somewhat worrisome because it proposes something that seems quite reasonable and doable, with the technology that North Korea appears to have, right this minute.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either. IMPORTANT! If you donate enough to get a book, please email me separately to tell me which book you want and the address to mail it to.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Certainly sounds doable, but I’m (initially) doubting how reasonable it is, even from a North Korean perspective.
pivoting slightly for excellent insight into What Makes the Nork’s, Tick.;
North Korea in One Lesson:
Michael Malice
https://youtu.be/fm1CV960vTE
56:47
Pivoting even further; one of the William-Shatner-narrates, nuclear-bomb & rocket movies. Absolutely amazing assemblage of archival photography, crisp & clean.
‘Nukes In Space’
https://youtu.be/9Y8UDupb1Gg
(51:30)
How could any nation respond if they sent a full payload of BBs into orbit?
ken–
I’d advocate a retaliatory air-burs, over their Capital city! (W-88 warhead) But then again I advocate a pre-emptive strike as it is.
“The power of the sun, in the palm of my hands…”
https://youtu.be/0DsKaphCrFA?t=80
On a more serious note however– what sort of sized debris-cloud, would a few tons of ball-bearing’s produce?
I tend to think rocket-man wouldn’t go to all this trouble, just to create a giant fragmentation grenade.
On the flipside, It wouldn’t surprise me at all, if he did something like that. He’s betting nobody will care or respond, and he might be correct on that point.
(Only Bob Corker can save us by cutting the correct-deal!)
Clarification: The “Nukes in Space” video I reference above, I believe the correct title is “The Rainbow Bombs.”
One must realize what the origins of this threat truly are: Bill Clinton gave NK megabucks for it to back off of nuclear technology. Rewarding that bad performance with cash (seems the way Clintons think for themselves) has lead the NKs to think they can do it again, and again and again.
The doctrine of appeasement makes things much more difficult down the road. The doctrine of appeasement has been applied by SK as well as all the European states (and Canada). This makes the current administration much more difficult, partly because the purse is empty.
Related:
http://disasterpreparer.com/emp-cloth/
I came uopn this and forwarded it to my cousin who has a company that makes canvas products and thought that it might be an interesting addition to his product line. If the N. Korean situation just festers and is never resolved this type of product may become more and more in demand.
Phil–
highly recommend anything from Victor Davis Hanson, on the “loss of deterrence.” (He has a new book out on WW2.)
Cotour–
>interesting product! That is a good cousin, to have in the Family!
related: See “Faraday Cage,” for protecting electronics. (I have a neighbor who wired up his mini-barn a few years ago.)
Pivoting to past history–
JFK delivers Cuban missile speech
October 22, 1962
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VvE_DZXtE8
18:42
Concurrently, Lots-o-Space-Activity (Military & Civilian) during this general time period in 1962, including high-altitude nuke testing & live-fire testing of ICBM’s by both the USA & USSR.
Appeasement. Kipling called it ” paying the Danegeld” and once you pay it you never get rid of the Dane.
It requires a rocket capable of boosting a payload to orbit to do this. Based on what I’ve read to-date, the Norks only seem to have two rockets that can do this. Payload capacity would be greatest to LEO with declining payload capability to higher orbital altitudes. So one could haul more “B-B’s” to lower orbits, but said B-B’s would also fall out of orbit fastest there.
The number of launch sites capable of handling the Nork missiles with even marginal orbital reach is not large. Massive salvo fire is not an option. And as soon as even one such mission went up, its purpose would be quickly apparent given the scrutiny NORK missile launches attract from U.S. military assets these days. A conventional explosive charge used to spread the notional B-B’s would be visible to U.S. missile launch warning and tracking assets.
After that, the B-2’s come in from Guam and the Tomahawks come in from pretty much everywhere and blow every known fixed launch site in the DPRK to smithereens, plus any mobile ones that haven’t moved since they were last imaged. And as much else that is rocket-related and can be identified in advance as possible.
Since they don’t have any space based assets, cutting off access could suit them but would any of their ICBM’s have to cross the debris field?
Dick Eagleson wrote: “It requires a rocket capable of boosting a payload to orbit to do this.”
Point well taken, with emphasis on the words “to orbit.” If the debris is not placed in orbit, then it will fall back before it gets to do much or any damage. Several military satellites are in higher orbits, such as 10,000 miles. GPS is in a 12,000 mile orbit. It looks like North Korea is not yet capable of contaminating those orbits.
Depending upon what legacy Kim Jong Un wants to have, he probably will not do this. China got a scolding and a terrible reputation for the test that they did, as mentioned in the article. Also, Kim’s friend, China, would be angry with him if he did such a thing, as China would be just as locked out as the countries that he would want to harm.
Then there is the time delay in the destruction of military satellites. If North Korea wants to disable military satellites “now,” then they would need to use interceptors, as China’s test did, not debris. The Kessler Syndrome does not work as fast as depicted in the movie “Gravity.” (Actually, very little works as depicted in that movie, but other than that it is a nice man-against-the-elements movie and we root for Sandra and George as they try to save themselves and each other.) Thus North Korea would only get a bad reputation with no immediate benefit.
I appreciate the input here by knowledgeable engineers. I had a suspicion that this threat from North Korea, as outlined in the article, might be overstated, but couldn’t spot the holes. Dick Eagleson and Edward have pointed them out, very ably.