SpaceX military payload might have been lost
Anonymous sources are suggesting that the top secret government payload that SpaceX successfully placed in orbit two days ago might have been lost.
Very little is presently known. Statements from SpaceX suggest that its Falcon 9 rocket worked perfectly, which would suggest the problems occurred after second stage separation. However, one source seems to suggest otherwise.
Until I get more information, I am therefore still counting this launch as a success for SpaceX.
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Anonymous sources are suggesting that the top secret government payload that SpaceX successfully placed in orbit two days ago might have been lost.
Very little is presently known. Statements from SpaceX suggest that its Falcon 9 rocket worked perfectly, which would suggest the problems occurred after second stage separation. However, one source seems to suggest otherwise.
Until I get more information, I am therefore still counting this launch as a success for SpaceX.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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Not knowing if a secret mission succeeded is a feature.
“Not knowing if a secret mission succeeded is a feature.”
Unless you’re a taxpayer.
I keep seeing from other places that the satellite has been categorized as in orbit. Will someone with more knowledge than me explain how it can be given a category designation if it is not?
Check out this photo taken by a Dutch pilot over Khartoum (Sudan) 2h 15m after Zuma’s launch, supposedly showing the F9 second stage spinning while venting tanks, after conducting its disposal burn, but prior to reentry. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTDiqxfWkAAmzf1.jpg
Here are the associate tweets: https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/950507412045352961
Juan: You don’t provide your sources, but if they are reliable then this would prove that the Falcon 9 did its job, and any problems fall to Northrup Grumman solely. A satellite can reach orbit and still be a failure.
Also, the secretiveness of this launch suggests to me that we should not assume it has failed, no matter what anyone says. This could all be a disinformation campaign by the unknown agency that built it to fool everyone into no longer paying attention to it.
It is cataloged as:
USA 280
NORAD ID: 43098
Int’l Code: 2018-001A
Launch date: January 8, 2018
Source: United States (US)
Launch site: AIR FORCE EASTERN TEST RANGE (AFETR)
Status: In Orbit
Action: Unable to track
With no orbital parameters given.
https://www.n2yo.com/database/?id=43098+#results
https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=43098
I don’t think that tells us much.
Here is another photo, presumably of the second stage, over Sudan, this one from the ground: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DTDbGB-WsAAFWCc.jpg
Associated tweet: https://twitter.com/NecromanceRaven/status/950500422032265216
I don’t recall photos like these from previous Falcon 9 flights.
+ Diane Wilson & Edward regarding discussion in the previous thread of the attachment hardware:
This Wired article says that while SpaceX normally provides the payload adapter, in this case Northrop Grumman provided both the satellite and “an adapter to mate Zuma with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket”.
https://www.wired.com/story/spacexs-top-secret-zuma-mission-launches-today/
Link to a WSJ article claiming failure:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-secret-spy-satellite-appears-lost-after-spacex-launch-failure-2018-01-08
This whole situation is very suspenseful. Too bad we wont find out the details for a long time.
Just speculating in case it is an upper stage failure. The upper stage has only one Merlin engine. When an engine went out on the first stage once, the other eight compensated for it (only the secondary payload was lost that time). But considering that 10 of these wizard engines have worked perfectly at each launch, engine failure doesn’t look likely. But they have refueled this particular launcher several times over the last few months, haven’t they. Maybe this is similar to the two other upper stage failures which seem to have been related to the fuel/oxygen tanks.
My apologies Robert. I assumed since we both appear frequent NasaSpaceflight.com that you may have seen the same people comment. I should not have made that assumption. I just saw a few posts that it had been given the designation USA280 and those posters commented it would not have been given the designation unless it had reached orbit.
With those comments it confused me as to how the articles are now saying it burned up in the atmosphere.
Kirk,
Thanks for the information.