Author: Robert Zimmerman

Starship: Old-fashioned American know-how

11:39 am

Starship about 2 minutes into its flight

Yesterday’s truly epic first flight of SpaceX’s giant Starship rocket illustrated several truths that bear repeating, in clear and forceful language.

SpaceX succeeded because its company philosophy is open-minded, fearless, and thus free.

The open-mindedness culture comes from Elon Musk’s insistence that they never settle on any design if they can find a better way to do it. It is this approach that drives the company’s developmental process. The first Falcon 1 rocket made orbit, but despite that triumph Musk quickly abandoned it for the Falcon 9 when it was clear that it wasn’t powerful enough to garner enough satellite business.

The Falcon 9 that first launched in 2008 was a very different rocket from the Falcon 9 that launches today, as shown by the two pictures below. In the 2008 Falcon 9 the engines were configured differently and it had no legs. The modern Falcon 9 has landing legs, a different engine arrangement, and much of the innards have been redesigned to give the rocket more oomph.
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Watch ULA try again to launch its Delta-4 Heavy

9:09 am

Capitalism in space: ULA will today try once again, after numerous scrubbed and aborted attempts in August and September, to launch its Delta-4 Heavy rocket carrying a National Reconnaissance Office spy satellite.

The mission is set to take off at 6:15 p.m. EST (2315 GMT) Thursday from pad 37B at the newly-renamed Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. Forecasters predict near-ideal weather with a 90% chance of favorable conditions during the launch window Thursday evening.

Many of the launch problems earlier this year were due to issues in the launch pad. The article at the link describes the major refurbishing that ULA has done since then to fix them.

I have embedded their live stream of the launch, below the fold. It is set to go live at 5:55 pm (Eastern).

Note also that the next few days will be very busy for the American rocket industry. Tomorrow (Friday) both SpaceX and Astra have launches scheduled, with the latter making its second attempt to complete its first orbital launch. Then Rocket Lab has another Electron launch from New Zealand scheduled for the next day (Saturday).

That’s four launches in three days. If just two succeed, it will raise the total U.S. launches in 2020 to 38, which would be the most American launches in a single year since 1969, the year the country put men on the Moon.
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Smallsat rocket startup Obex raises $24 million

8:52 am

Capitalism in space: The smallsat rocket startup Obex of the United Kingdom today announced that it has raised $24 million in private investment capital to support the development of its Prime rocket.

Conceived and developed as an environmentally sustainable launch system, the Orbex Prime rocket uniquely uses bio-propane, a renewable biofuel that cuts CO2 emissions by 90% compared to traditional kerosene-based rocket fuels. Designed to be recoverable and re-usable, Orbex Prime is intended to leave no debris in the ocean or in orbit around the Earth. The company is constructing the rocket vehicle at factories in Forres, near Inverness in Scotland, and Copenhagen in Denmark.

…Orbex has already confirmed six commercial satellite launch contracts, with the first launches expected in 2022. The company’s preferred launch site will be the Sutherland spaceport on the northernmost coast of Scotland, which was granted planning permission in mid-August 2020.

Whether the Sutherland spaceport happens however remains uncertain. Though it still appears to be moving forward, there is a lot of local opposition to it, some with clout. It appears however that Orbex is aware of this reality, and is developing Prime to allow it to launch from other sites.

That the company is trying to build this rocket as reusable right from the beginning is encouraging. It shows that the rocket industry is finally accepting the new paradigm established by SpaceX. For them to achieve this by ’22 however will be quite challenging.

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Beresheet-2 will have two landers instead of one

8:42 am

The new colonial movement: SpaceIL, the Israeli non-profit company that built the failed Beresheet-1 lunar lander, yesterday announced its plans to build Beresheet-2, this time with an orbiter and two lunar landers, and launch it by ’24.

The two landers would be much smaller than the first spacecraft — about 260 pounds each, fully fueled, compared with a bit less than 1,300 pounds for Beresheet — and they would land on different parts of the moon. The orbiter would circle the moon for at least a couple of years. The three spacecraft of Beresheet 2 would together weigh about 1,400 pounds.

Even though the designs would be new, they would reuse many aspects of Beresheet, and the founders said they had learned lessons that would increase the chances of success for the second attempt. SpaceIL will again collaborate with Israel Aerospace Industries, a large satellite manufacturer.

SpaceIL is looking for funding from both private and Israeli government sources. It is also looking for funds from other nations, a decision which revealed the most intriguing part of this announcement:

SpaceIL hopes that international partnerships will pay for half of the cost of Beresheet 2. Mr. Damari said the United Arab Emirates, a small but wealthy country in the Persian Gulf that has set up an ambitious space program in recent years, was one of seven nations interested in taking part. He declined to name the other six.

If this flight ends up to be a partnership between Israel and the United Arab Emirates it will send shockwaves through the Arab world, most especially among the supporters of the terrorist leaders ruling the Palestinian territories.

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China launches two science satellites with its Long March 11 rocket

8:23 am

The new colonial movement: China yesterday completed the eleventh successful launch of its Long March 11 rocket, putting two astronomy satellites in orbit designed to supplement gravitational wave research.

The satellites appear designed to look in other wavelengths at the region of sky from which gravitational waves are detected, and better pinpoint their location and nature.

This Long March 11 launch continues its perfect launch record. It uses solid rocket motors, derived from military missiles, which allow it to be stored easily and then launched quickly.

The leaders in the 2020 launch race:

33 China
23 SpaceX
13 Russia
5 ULA
5 Rocket Lab
5 Europe (Arianespace)

The U.S. still leads in the national rankings, 36 to 33, over China. And before anyone asks, yesterday’s SpaceX test suborbital flight of Starship does not qualify as a launch in these standings, as I only include successful orbital launches.

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Starship flies!

4:31 pm

Starship about 2 minutes into its flight

Capitalism in space: In a spectacular achievement, SpaceX’s eighth Starship prototype today completed 6:42 minute flight that appeared to go practically perfectly, until landing.

At that point it appeared the spacecraft’s last landing burn was insufficient to slow it down enough for landing, and it crashed. However, it crashed on its landing pad, meaning it had maneuvered its way back through the atmosphere exactly as planned.

Below the fold are screen captures from the flight, in sequence.

The flight left several impressions. First, this design is viable. Though we are still looking at a prototype, it is one that works.

Second, the ship appeared to lumber into space, almost slowly. This was partly an illusion because of its size. Nonetheless, it reminded me of the 747, which always flew magnificently but with what seemed like a measured attitude. Starship appeared similar.

Third, the systems for controlling the ship on its return through the atmosphere appeared to work as intended. Though SpaceX obviously has a lot more work to do to achieve an orbital return, they have made a magnificent start.

And they have gotten this far in only two years, for less than $2 billion. Compare that to NASA and Boeing and their SLS, which is half a decade behind schedule and will likely cost $30 billion once launched.

We should expect the ninth prototype to be on the launchpad within days, and the next test flight in no more than few weeks.
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Key legal issues behind the Texas petition to Supreme Court re election issues

3:37 pm

Link here.

The author reviews the petition, the logic behind it, and the legal possibilities. She also cogently reviews the worst examples of misbehavior in the four swing states, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, that justify Supreme Court action. If you are one of those people that refuses to recognize the illegalities in the handling of the election in those states, you should read this article to education yourself.

The key point however is this:

These injuries, Texas asserts, demand a remedy. But the remedy sought is not what some may surmise is the goal—a second term for President Trump.

No, what Texas seeks is for the Supreme Court to mandate that the defendant states comply with the Constitution, and that means that electors are selected by the states’ legislatures. Texas makes this point clear, stressing: “Plaintiff State does not ask this Court to decide who won the election; they only ask that the Court enjoin the clear violations of the Electors Clause of the Constitution.”

Texas is essentially demanding what I suggested several weeks ago: If election issues are not fixed, elected state Republicans must refuse to certify.

Texas is demanding that these four states put the decision to the legislatures, since their election counts cannot be trusted. While the arguments are sound, it remains to be seen whether the Supreme Court will listen.

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Watch the attempted first high altitude flight of SpaceX’s Starship

2:26 pm

Starship on launch pad
Screen capture from SpaceX live feed during 1st launch attempt.
Click for LabPadre live stream,
from which this image was captured today.

UPDATE: Less than six minutes to launch.

UPDATE: Hold called at T-2:06. They have reset the clock for a 4:40 pm (Central) launch.

Original post:
——————-
Capitalism in space: SpaceX’s live stream is on, with a liftoff in six minutes. I have embedded below the fold the live stream for this first high altitude flight of SpaceX’s Starship.

The LabPadre live stream, to the right, shows that they have already proceeded through most of preliminary stages prior to liftoff.

If all goes right, this eighth prototype of Starship will go about 40,000 feet in the air, turn over and attempt to control its return belly side down, and then upright itself just before landing so it can complete a vertical landing like a Falcon 9 first stage. The company gives themselves a one in three chance of landing the spacecraft. SpaceX has also made it clear that their primary engineering goal on this flight is to test that return through the atmosphere, so that is the part of the flight they most need to succeed. Failing to land afterward but getting that data will make this test a complete success.

No matter what happens, the company has prototypes 9 through 15 waiting in the wings.

UPDATE: This post will remain at the top of the page until the flight occurs, or is scrubbed. Scroll down for new stories.
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Cryptic Terrain on Mars

1:01 pm

Cryptic terrain near Mars' south polar ice cap
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, rotated and cropped to post here, was taken on September 27, 2020 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows what is likely a crater that is partly buried by ice and dust and sand near or on the edge of Mars’s south polar ice cap.

It also shows an example of what planetary scientists have dubbed “cryptic terrain,” found generally on the margins of that ice cap. In this case, the location is on a plateau adjacent to the ice cap dubbed Promethei Planum. Despite a lot of searching, I could not locate any research papers describing Promethei Planum, though data outlined in one Mars Express press release from 2008 suggested it was part of the polar ice cap more than two miles thick that is covered by a thin mantle of dry ice each winter.

The strange curlicue cliffs and plateaus seen here are thought to form as part of the arrival and then sublimation away of that seasonal dry ice mantle, but how that process exactly works to create these particular geological features remains I think a mystery. North is to the top. The general grade is also downhill away from the icecap to the north.

Moreover, the overview map below, with the location of this image indicated by the blue cross, illustrates more mysteries.
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ESA funds construction of its own X-37B, dubbed Space Rider

11:23 am

The new colonial movement: The European Space Agency (ESA) has now signed the contracts to fund the construction of its first reusable mini-shuttle, dubbed Space Rider and comparable to the Air Force’s X-37B.

ESA signed two contracts with industry on 9 December at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy in the presence of Italian government representatives. The first contract is for delivery of the Space Rider flight model including the reentry module and the AVUM orbital service module, by co-prime contractors: Thales Alenia Space Italy and Avio. The second contract covers the delivery of the ground segment by Italian co-prime contractors: Telespazio and Altec.

Activities are on track for the first flight of Space Rider in the third quarter of 2023 from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana.

Like the X-37B, Space Rider will provide Europe with a space platform for performing long term experiments in space and recovering them undamaged, though initially the flights will be no more than two months long. While it will launch on a rocket like the X-37B, and will use its body to shed velocity as it returns through the atmosphere, it will not land on a runway but will instead use parachutes to drop it to the ground.

More importantly, Space Rider will be available to the private sector. The X-37B is controlled by the U.S. military, and they have made it available for only a limited number of non-military experiments.

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