Denial by everyone
Link here. The article is a careful analysis of the new narrative by the press and the conservative establishment in which the presidential campaign is now coming down to a competition between Rubio vs Cruz, while apparently ignoring the fact that Trump and Carson have been dominating the polls for months.
All of which is to say that, yes, a battle royale between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz would make for absolutely fascinating political theater, in the best sense of the term. But on what grounds should this possible outcome, for which some in elite conservative circles are evidently yearning, be considered somewhat inevitable, or even all that likely? Donald Trump and Ben Carson have occupied first place in every major national poll since the beginning of July. Since early August, their combined support has hovered around 50 percent, with the other dozen candidates divvying up the scraps. This is not indicative of fleeting, flash-in-the-pan appeal. We’ve now gone months with virtually unchanged fundamentals, as the various spikes and swoons of lower-tier candidates have had little impact on the dominant top two. [emphasis in original]
What I struck me about this however is that it isn’t just the press and the conservative elites who are in denial. As the article also notes, Trump and Carson are clearly “two political novices with strange political instincts and undeniable knowledge blindspots.” The voters seem as much in denial about those blindspots as the elites are about Trump and Carson’s lead.
The voters are justifiably angry. They don’t trust the elites and professional politicians from either party who have lied to them repeatedly. These passions have apparently gotten so strong that the public is now ready to ignore some obvious candidate weaknesses that in the past would have made these same candidates unelectable. Instead, they are ready to put these flawed outsiders in power.
Then again, not one voter has yet voted. When it comes time to actually pull the lever, it could be that the pundits are right and the support for these outsiders will suddenly vanish. To me, this narrative appears increasingly unlikely, but we shall see.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Link here. The article is a careful analysis of the new narrative by the press and the conservative establishment in which the presidential campaign is now coming down to a competition between Rubio vs Cruz, while apparently ignoring the fact that Trump and Carson have been dominating the polls for months.
All of which is to say that, yes, a battle royale between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz would make for absolutely fascinating political theater, in the best sense of the term. But on what grounds should this possible outcome, for which some in elite conservative circles are evidently yearning, be considered somewhat inevitable, or even all that likely? Donald Trump and Ben Carson have occupied first place in every major national poll since the beginning of July. Since early August, their combined support has hovered around 50 percent, with the other dozen candidates divvying up the scraps. This is not indicative of fleeting, flash-in-the-pan appeal. We’ve now gone months with virtually unchanged fundamentals, as the various spikes and swoons of lower-tier candidates have had little impact on the dominant top two. [emphasis in original]
What I struck me about this however is that it isn’t just the press and the conservative elites who are in denial. As the article also notes, Trump and Carson are clearly “two political novices with strange political instincts and undeniable knowledge blindspots.” The voters seem as much in denial about those blindspots as the elites are about Trump and Carson’s lead.
The voters are justifiably angry. They don’t trust the elites and professional politicians from either party who have lied to them repeatedly. These passions have apparently gotten so strong that the public is now ready to ignore some obvious candidate weaknesses that in the past would have made these same candidates unelectable. Instead, they are ready to put these flawed outsiders in power.
Then again, not one voter has yet voted. When it comes time to actually pull the lever, it could be that the pundits are right and the support for these outsiders will suddenly vanish. To me, this narrative appears increasingly unlikely, but we shall see.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
I speculate that as the time gets nearer to voting leadership may begin to put out the notion that things in the country and the world are too tenuous to risk the leadership of the country to such “radical” and politically untested people. If this is to occur it will spell the destruction of the current republican party from which the new republican party will be forged. (Who knows what deals Trump and Prebus have made regarding Trumps apparent popularity and republican leadership?)
It has the potential to really shake things up and if they were to venture in that direction it will probably ensure a democrat landslide because the majority of republicans that consider themselves conservative will not leave their houses to cast any votes. I for one will not, my days of voting for the lesser evil are over.
I don’t understand the appeal of Trump. I read a lot of conservative websites and he doesn’t get a lot of support there. He is great on picking what issues he wants to elevate and his combative nature is effective but he has held many views in the past that he claims not to today. Aside from the bombastic tone, he really strikes me as an establishment candidate. I don’t know if he will do the things he is claiming right now but in that sense, he is like any other politician.
But who knows? I don’t watch network TV. Maybe his strength is not so much from people ideologically invested in conservatism but his fans from TV. He could be a really good president or he could be really bad. It is hard to say.
Trump has as much if not more experience making deals than anyone in Washington.
All he will have to do is change the people he is making deals with. And in many cases I bet even that will be a small change.
He already knows them all and associates with most.
He at least can not be bribed and I bet he can not even be blackmailed. Can you think of anything Trump would be embarrassed by?
For all the other stuff he will have help.
Ask yourself this.
Do you trust him to try to take on our growing ISIS problem?
Do you trust him to actually try to stop illegal immigration?
Do you trust him to at least try to get this economy running again?
If he can make a deal and get Carson to be his VP the ticket could be, would be, unbeatable.
We have to start calling Hillary that old, privileged, white woman. And every time a reporter asks a question ask them back where the Democrat minority candidates are? Three old white communists is all they could come up with?
We have cried for years about and against the establishment candidates and now when a couple of viable outsiders come by we start harping about their inexperience?
Seriously?
This is our only chance to break the cycle so we better take it and smile.
Start working on keeping the house and senate so our president has all the power.
The Republican party has got to embrace the new media.
They need to start making their own debates and posting them online for free.
The candidates can set it up all on their own and the financing would be cheap. If two candidates want to debate then they can set up a two man debate.
They can set up debates moderated by various people in various industries. Like heavy manufacturing, import/export, Ted talks, internet rights, pretty much anything someone can think of.
They can even do them from their bus by Skype.
Once it starts I bet a hundred groups will request every candidate to take part in their own “debate”.
Since each group will only ask questions concerning its own group any ‘got yah” questions will be kept to a minimum and if thing go bad that group will just be out of any further debates.
If anyone wants to know what the candidates are saying about the internet for instance they just need to look it up on YouTube.
Everything a candidate ever says will be recorded in someway these days. We might as well make sure that we can post a full copy of it all in full context and unedited. Each candidate needs to start keeping a camera of their own next to them all the time.
Keeping the full content of everything said available and on line will kill the left wing media. Its already working and we are not even making it a full on plan.
“some obvious candidate weaknesses that in the past would have made these same candidates unelectable”
And just who has been determining that any candidate is “unelectable”? The “unelectable” candidates keep getting booted out of the races by the leadership and we never get the chance to vote for them.
IMO People seem to have forgotten how sick and tired the American public was with Clinton’s shenanigans that by 2000, ANY republican could have been elected. Carl Rove thought it would be a good idea to pander to the democrat voter and almost blew a sure thing in just about the only national election the candidate he has “helped” won. In 2008 and again in 2012, the American public were saddled with RINOs who failed miserably while numerous “unelectable” candidates would have won handily.
IMO an “unelectable” republican candidate will win in a landslide in 2016 unless “Reince and repeat” Priebus gets to pick the nominee. If that happens, rest assured that whoever is our next president will be another socialist and the republican party will cease to be a national organization.