February 7, 2023 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
- Why Europe might have backed off sending its astronauts to Tiangong-3
Eric Berger essentially repeats my initial one sentence analysis, just in more detail.
- JUICE ready for shipment to launchpad in French Guiana
If all goes as planned, this Jupiter orbiter will arrive at Jupiter in 2029.
- China’s space tracking ship heads to sea for 2023 launches
Jay thinks the the theme from “Love Boat” would be better background music for the video at the link.
- Progress freighter has undocked from Zvezda port, to be replaced by new Progress to be launched on February 9, 2023
Previously the Russians and NASA had said there would be no more dockings at Zvezda’s port to reduce the possibility of more stress fractures to the hull of that module. Apparently, they and NASA have changed their minds. It would be nice to know the reasoning behind that decision.
- Old Russian satellite breaks up in orbit, producing 85 pieces of space junk
The breakup was tracked by U.S. Space Defense Squadron, and occurred on January 4, 2023.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either. IMPORTANT! If you donate enough to get a book, please email me separately to tell me which book you want and the address to mail it to.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
- Why Europe might have backed off sending its astronauts to Tiangong-3
Eric Berger essentially repeats my initial one sentence analysis, just in more detail.
- JUICE ready for shipment to launchpad in French Guiana
If all goes as planned, this Jupiter orbiter will arrive at Jupiter in 2029.
- China’s space tracking ship heads to sea for 2023 launches
Jay thinks the the theme from “Love Boat” would be better background music for the video at the link.
- Progress freighter has undocked from Zvezda port, to be replaced by new Progress to be launched on February 9, 2023
Previously the Russians and NASA had said there would be no more dockings at Zvezda’s port to reduce the possibility of more stress fractures to the hull of that module. Apparently, they and NASA have changed their minds. It would be nice to know the reasoning behind that decision.
- Old Russian satellite breaks up in orbit, producing 85 pieces of space junk
The breakup was tracked by U.S. Space Defense Squadron, and occurred on January 4, 2023.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either. IMPORTANT! If you donate enough to get a book, please email me separately to tell me which book you want and the address to mail it to.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
What causes a satellite “break up” ?
Chris asked: “<emWhat causes a satellite 'break up' ?”
There are several possibilities. A satellite may break up on deployment if things go badly during the process. Since Kosmos 2499 was launched eight years ago, this is certainly not the cause.
Another reason is an out of control situation, such as a thruster sticking and the satellite spinning too fast for its structure to hold together. Since there are at least 85 pieces, I think this is also unlikely.
Another possibility is an overpressure event in a propellant tank, battery, or other part that may be able to rupture. Although I have little more knowledge other than the very short and uninformative announcement at the link, I suspect this to be the most likely cause.
This article gives another example of a decommissioned satellite breakup, a couple of years ago:
https://sputniknews.com/20210319/us-space-force-confirms-breakup-of-decommissioned-weather-satellite-noaa-17-1082390238.html
I worked on communication satellites that used nickel-hydrogen batteries, and they had to be carefully managed in order to assure that they did not overpressure and explode.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batteries_in_space
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_2499
If it were an experimental anti-satellite weapon, this may explain why it broke up. If it were a collector of space debris, then this breakup would be ironic.
Mars Observer was lost during or after a trajectory maneuver on its way to Mars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Observer
On January 4, 1994, an independent investigation board from the Naval Research Laboratory, announced their findings: the most probable cause in the loss of communication was a rupture of the fuel pressurization tank in the spacecraft’s propulsion system. It is believed that hypergolic fuel may have leaked past valves in the system during the cruise to Mars, allowing the fuel and oxidizer to combine prematurely before reaching the combustion chamber. The leaking fuel and gas probably resulted in a high spin rate, causing the spacecraft to enter into the “contingency mode”; this interrupted the stored command sequence and did not turn the transmitter on. The engine was derived from one belonging to an Earth orbital satellite and was not designed to lie dormant for months before being fired.
Although it is not known whether Mars Observer broke up, in my mind this is what happened from the presumed ruptured tank and possible external ignition.
Space is dangerous to work in, not just for people but for the hardware. Care must always be taken. A car crash on Earth can be cleaned up, but in space the parts are often around for a long time, posing a hazard to travel and navigation.
Thanks Edward
Not sure where else would be appropriate to offer this, but apparently, at the CST conference today, Gwynne Shotwell says that SpaceX is going to attempt a 33-engine Starship static fire tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1623391044464156674
Richard M: I have added this to today’s quick links, and given you a hat tip.
No acknowledgement was necessary – but thank you just the same, Bob!
BTW, Mary, aka Bocachicagal, has now confirmed that she has received an overpressure notice for tomorrow, which makes this even more real, I suppose. https://twitter.com/BocaChicaGal/status/1623483447791476736
Unexpected technical difficulties could force a cancellation. But it definitely appears that SpaceX is going to *attempt* a 33 engine static fire tomorrow.
P.S. A side note, but one other interesting item came out of Shotwell’s talk: She indicated that Starlink is now making money. “This year Starlink will make money. We actually had a cash flow positive quarter last year.” https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/spacex-prepares-test-fire-all-starship-engines-at-once.html