First ULA Vulcan launch delayed a year to 2021
The first ULA Vulcan launch has been delayed a year to 2021.
In an interview [at a recent conference, John Elbon, chief operating officer of ULA,] said the shift in the first launch to April 2021 is linked to the requirements of the LSA award from the Air Force. “As the procurement schedule was laid out, the Air Force schedule changed, and we synced up with that,” he said, adding that the company was moving ahead with more aggressive internal schedules for Vulcan’s development.
“While ULA was on schedule from a technical standpoint to meet 2020 target, once we reviewed the Air Force’s timeline in the LSA proposals & incorporated [additional] requirements into our plan, we aligned #VulcanCentaur launch dates to meet the Air Force schedule,” the company tweeted.
The LSA awards were Air Force subsidies ranging from $500 to $1 billion given to ULA, Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin last week to support development of their new rockets. And just as Blue Origin was forced to immediately delay its first New Glenn launch after obtaining this award, so has ULA.
In other words, gaining big development money from the Air Force forced both companies to delay their launch to meet the Air Force’s demands, something that SpaceX apparently decided not to do.
We shall see in the coming years which approach works best for making the most money. I favor SpaceX.
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The first ULA Vulcan launch has been delayed a year to 2021.
In an interview [at a recent conference, John Elbon, chief operating officer of ULA,] said the shift in the first launch to April 2021 is linked to the requirements of the LSA award from the Air Force. “As the procurement schedule was laid out, the Air Force schedule changed, and we synced up with that,” he said, adding that the company was moving ahead with more aggressive internal schedules for Vulcan’s development.
“While ULA was on schedule from a technical standpoint to meet 2020 target, once we reviewed the Air Force’s timeline in the LSA proposals & incorporated [additional] requirements into our plan, we aligned #VulcanCentaur launch dates to meet the Air Force schedule,” the company tweeted.
The LSA awards were Air Force subsidies ranging from $500 to $1 billion given to ULA, Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin last week to support development of their new rockets. And just as Blue Origin was forced to immediately delay its first New Glenn launch after obtaining this award, so has ULA.
In other words, gaining big development money from the Air Force forced both companies to delay their launch to meet the Air Force’s demands, something that SpaceX apparently decided not to do.
We shall see in the coming years which approach works best for making the most money. I favor SpaceX.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Robert wrote: “We shall see in the coming years which approach works best for making the most money. I favor SpaceX.”
I see two problems with accepting Air Force money. The first is that the one-year delay in first launch, and thus in becoming operational, means a loss of revenue, some of which will likely go to SpaceX. Delays in getting Falcon Heavy have resulted in contracts going to other companies, and Blue Origin will necessarily lose out on a year’s worth of launch contracts, as may happen to Northrop Grumman and ULA.
https://spacenews.com/viasat-books-falcon-heavy-for-viasat-3-launch/
The other problem is that the Air Force may continue to insist upon design or requirements changes, and this is the larger of the two problems. The deal that ULA, Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin made with the Air Force came with strings, as the article makes clear. It is unclear just how long those strings remain attached. It is also unclear how much those strings will cost directly. If Blue Origin, for instance, has to spend its half billion dollars just to make those changes, then their delay is strictly a cost to them. The Air Force is in the habit of changing requirements before a project becomes operational. It is one of the reasons that projects go over budget and suffer from schedule slips.
The Air Force can be a good customer, but it can also be a devil in disguise, as I think Blue Origin will discover, since they are attempting to be commercial, not a government contractor like ULA and Northrop Grumman. I believe that Blue Origin will rue the day it agreed to take half a billion dollars from the Air Force.
As Robert noted in his second link, SpaceX continues to be at liberty to “build [BFR] according to its desires, not the Air Force’s.” The importance is that SpaceX may continue to build BFR for the customers it expects, not for the Air Force as the main customer. The following video explains that SpaceX did not choose to make Falcon 9 the best rocket on the market, nor is it the best for many government payloads. Their trade-off was to make an inexpensive rocket. If the Air Force is requiring performance and other qualities over launch price, how would that affect future contracts for Blue Origin?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoUtgWQk-Y0 (14 minutes: “What SpaceX & Falcon 9 Can’t Do Better Than Alternatives”)
There are multiple reports that Spacex submitted a bid for BFR and was turned down e.h.
https://spacenews.com/military-launch-poised-for-new-era-as-air-force-prepares-to-move-beyond-eelv/
Spacex will still be able to bid for the next stage, actual launch contracts..
Des,
Those “reports” are personal speculations on the part of those making them. There is no evidence to back any of them up.