More indications of the decline of Russia’s space effort
Two stories today give further hints that Russia’s space effort, run under the centralized government control of its space agency Roscosmos, is struggling. Both stories involve comments by the head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, during an interview yesterday to celebrate the fifth anniversary of the Putin government’s takeover of Russia’s entire aerospace industry.
First, Rogozin announced that they intend to continue using their Soyuz manned capsule for at least ten more years, even though they are working to develop the Oryol replacement capsule and hope to fly its first unmanned test flight by 2023.
“I am absolutely sure that the Soyuz MS will be exploitable for at least ten years. That is why, during the first years we will use both the Soyuz MS and a new spacecraft,” he said.
Though it makes sense for Russia to fly both spacecraft for a period of time, ten years seems exorbitant. It suggests that Rogozin is covering his behind in case Oryol ends up getting delayed significantly.
Based on Russia’s track record the past twenty years, it is very likely Oryol will not fly by 2023. Since the turn of this century they have been promising new spacecraft and rockets without ever delivering. They have also spent a quarter of a century building one module for ISS. It has become their mode of operations to go slow and not deliver. Rogozin must know this, and is covering his bets by announcing Soyuz that will fly for many more years.
Second, Rogozin made it a point to denigrate the U.S. manned space effort, calling it a “political project” not interested in “helping” its partners. To quote him precisely:
For the United States this is now more of a political project. With the lunar project, we are observing the departure of our American partners from the principles of cooperation and mutual support that have developed in cooperation with the ISS. They see their program not as international, but as similar to NATO. There is America, everyone else must help and pay. Honestly we are not interest in participating in such a project. [emphasis mine]
Apparently, because we will no longer be buying seats on a Soyuz (which has helped keep Roscosmos above water for the past decade), and are also requiring that Russia pay its own way in working with us in getting back to the Moon, he considers us no longer willing to following “principles of cooperation and mutual support.”
How mean of us! We should not only let them share in the glory of getting back to the Moon, we should provide them the funds to do it.
Rogozin also indicated they are now talking to China about working with them on future interplanetary exploration. The article correctly notes that these comments could be a negotiating ploy by Rogozin to get the U.S. to pry open its wallet. That might work, but Trump officials should know that it is very doubtful China will funnel any cash to Russia.
Both stories indicate the overall decline in Russia’s capabilities. They appear to need a partner to provide them financial support, even as they struggle vainly to get anything done on their own.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
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Two stories today give further hints that Russia’s space effort, run under the centralized government control of its space agency Roscosmos, is struggling. Both stories involve comments by the head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, during an interview yesterday to celebrate the fifth anniversary of the Putin government’s takeover of Russia’s entire aerospace industry.
First, Rogozin announced that they intend to continue using their Soyuz manned capsule for at least ten more years, even though they are working to develop the Oryol replacement capsule and hope to fly its first unmanned test flight by 2023.
“I am absolutely sure that the Soyuz MS will be exploitable for at least ten years. That is why, during the first years we will use both the Soyuz MS and a new spacecraft,” he said.
Though it makes sense for Russia to fly both spacecraft for a period of time, ten years seems exorbitant. It suggests that Rogozin is covering his behind in case Oryol ends up getting delayed significantly.
Based on Russia’s track record the past twenty years, it is very likely Oryol will not fly by 2023. Since the turn of this century they have been promising new spacecraft and rockets without ever delivering. They have also spent a quarter of a century building one module for ISS. It has become their mode of operations to go slow and not deliver. Rogozin must know this, and is covering his bets by announcing Soyuz that will fly for many more years.
Second, Rogozin made it a point to denigrate the U.S. manned space effort, calling it a “political project” not interested in “helping” its partners. To quote him precisely:
For the United States this is now more of a political project. With the lunar project, we are observing the departure of our American partners from the principles of cooperation and mutual support that have developed in cooperation with the ISS. They see their program not as international, but as similar to NATO. There is America, everyone else must help and pay. Honestly we are not interest in participating in such a project. [emphasis mine]
Apparently, because we will no longer be buying seats on a Soyuz (which has helped keep Roscosmos above water for the past decade), and are also requiring that Russia pay its own way in working with us in getting back to the Moon, he considers us no longer willing to following “principles of cooperation and mutual support.”
How mean of us! We should not only let them share in the glory of getting back to the Moon, we should provide them the funds to do it.
Rogozin also indicated they are now talking to China about working with them on future interplanetary exploration. The article correctly notes that these comments could be a negotiating ploy by Rogozin to get the U.S. to pry open its wallet. That might work, but Trump officials should know that it is very doubtful China will funnel any cash to Russia.
Both stories indicate the overall decline in Russia’s capabilities. They appear to need a partner to provide them financial support, even as they struggle vainly to get anything done on their own.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Sounds like sour grapes to me. The Russian space effort was ALWAYS political in nature, which is why it’s in the deep hole it’s in today. Putin no longer sees any significant political advantage in such a program, so it is fading from view. It will be kept just alive enough for the Russians to claim to be still in the space game, but not enough to be a real player.
China and Russia could team up to race us to the Moon. I’m fine with that. Good luck to ‘em.
“How mean of us! We should not only let them share in the glory of getting back to the Moon, we should provide them the funds to do it.”
We kindly paid the Russians to complete their modules that they attached to the ISS, and we paid them to put our astronauts on MIR. We paid them for astronaut rides to ISS. Did we also pay them to do the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project? The Russians may see the U.S. space program in a different light than we do, they may see it as a source of income, while we see it as a science mission (or, if you are in Congress, a spending mission). If we stop paying them, then there is a drastic change in our relationship, to their detriment.
“It has become their mode of operations to go slow and not deliver.”
The Russians certainly hold to the engineering aphorism that if it ain’t broke then don’t fix it. They currently have some working rockets and a working manned spacecraft, so there is not much motivation to replace them. Modern competition is rapidly changing this, so sometime in the next decade the Russians may decide that SpaceX has broken their current space program.
Once again, a problem brought on by the United States. How mean of us!