Space Force awards nine launch contracts to SpaceX
In announcing its next round of satellite launch awards, the Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) has awarded all nine launches (valued at $739 millon total) to SpaceX, bypassing both Blue Origin and ULA.
SSC awarded the [three] SDA-2 missions to SpaceX for launches projected to begin in [the fourth quarter of fiscal year ’26], and awarded the [two] SDA-3 missions to SpaceX for launches to begin in [the third quarter of fiscal year ’27]. SSC also awarded the [four] NTO-5 launches to SpaceX projected to occur in [the first quarter of fiscal year ’27 and the second quarter of fiscal year ’28]. The total value of these awards is $739M.
It is surprising that SpaceX got all nine contracts. Even though SpaceX charges less than ULA, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is not yet certified by the Pentagon for operational launches, it has been military policy in recent years to distribute this work to more than one launch provider so as to guarantee a redundancy. ULA exists today for expressly that reason. In the past it would have certainly gotten at least one of these launches.
As for Blue Origin, the Space Force could have awarded it at least one of the later launches in ’27 and ’28, contingent on getting New Glenn certified.
That the Space Force bypassed both companies entirely speaks volumes. It appears it has decided to simply go with the best product now available, and to heck with redundancy.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
In announcing its next round of satellite launch awards, the Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) has awarded all nine launches (valued at $739 millon total) to SpaceX, bypassing both Blue Origin and ULA.
SSC awarded the [three] SDA-2 missions to SpaceX for launches projected to begin in [the fourth quarter of fiscal year ’26], and awarded the [two] SDA-3 missions to SpaceX for launches to begin in [the third quarter of fiscal year ’27]. SSC also awarded the [four] NTO-5 launches to SpaceX projected to occur in [the first quarter of fiscal year ’27 and the second quarter of fiscal year ’28]. The total value of these awards is $739M.
It is surprising that SpaceX got all nine contracts. Even though SpaceX charges less than ULA, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is not yet certified by the Pentagon for operational launches, it has been military policy in recent years to distribute this work to more than one launch provider so as to guarantee a redundancy. ULA exists today for expressly that reason. In the past it would have certainly gotten at least one of these launches.
As for Blue Origin, the Space Force could have awarded it at least one of the later launches in ’27 and ’28, contingent on getting New Glenn certified.
That the Space Force bypassed both companies entirely speaks volumes. It appears it has decided to simply go with the best product now available, and to heck with redundancy.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
1. This is striking, too, because the first batch of Lane 1 launches went 100% to SpaceX back in 2024. (Those were all SDA payloads.) Right now, SpaceX is sweeping the field so far on Lane 1 awards.
2. Lane 1 prioritizes not just price, but speed and launch cadence, too. And I think that is the messsage the Space Force was sending on this batch: they want these satellites up speedily, and on a schedule they can rely on. Which, I mean….SpaceX is launching 3 to 4 times a week now, so this is almost like a bus route, so speed and schedule are assured and then some. Clearly, they think only SpaceX can give them that!
3. Blue Origin losing out doesn’t surprise, but ULA is another story. We know the SF has been pretty vocal about their unhappiness over the last two years and more with Vulcan delays. It is hard to NOT see this as registering that they’re still not happy with where Vulcan is. I mean, had they just tossed one or two of these to ULA, the schedule risk would be modest, but they didn’t even do that. They gave them ALL to SpaceX. There are going to be a lot of frowny faces at ULA headquarters this weekend, because that’s money left on the table. These aren’t even Lane 2 launches!
4. How should we read this in connection with Tory Bruno’s departure several days ago? It makes you wonder.
5. And why *is* Vulcan still so slow to get launches off? The next Vulcan launch is USSF-87 on Feb. 2, so that’s nice, but this is only the fourth launch of Vulcan! I just don’t understand why it’s taking so long for ULA to get it in gear. It’s certified now. They have a big backlog. The Space Force has been insisting that they have payloads sitting in clean rooms waiting for a (Vulcan) ride.
USSF is doing two things.
1. Throwing out contracts to help the market grow.
2. Providing National Security.
ULA is, IMHO, struggling. Blue Origin is developing. Both appear to have enough future manifests that they are not in danger of collapse.
This gives the USSF leeway in awarding these missions.
1. They can choose reliability. SpaceX is the most reliable consistent option today. This is irrefutable.
2. It should make the competition hungry.And the path to satisfying that hunger is to build their own reputation . For reliability.
This aligns with the new DoW emphasis on warfighter effectiveness. These things absolutely positively have to launch when needed and Blue Origin and ULA don’t seem to be able to deliver that.
Perversely, the presence of a booked backlog seems to be a veritable permission slip for BO and ULA to avoid the upset of skills revitalization and process streamlining, and continue to turn the crank slowly, well lubricated by risk-free taxpayer money!
Instead of providing a means to allow productive acceleration, this backlog seems to have encouraged BO and ULA to relax! Maybe we need to start taking this “incentive” away?!
Perhaps that will get the attention of the “Backlogged Obsolescence” and “Underperforming Laxity Assured” organizations?!
Even if Starship doesn’t pan out, Falcon’s hand can only get stronger.
Once Starlink is more or less complete—that will free up Falcon’s schedule.
Like Starship isn’t going to pan out. You keep hoping, but you are going to be disappointed.
Space X provides its own back up and redundancy.
They have multiple assembly buildings, Multiple launch towers at multiple launch sights.
At that point the only reason to have another launch provider is in case the whole of Space X refuses to launch anything for the government.
I just don’t see that happening, ever.
And that is not even counting on Starship.. Starship just lets them push a larger load to orbit at one time.
Falcon 9, as good as it is, is not good enough to enable the settlement of Mars, the expansion of Starlink, industrializing the Moon, and flying payloads for anyone else all at the same time. Fortunately, there seem to be no insuperable barriers to full reuse at this point, and SpaceX has the funds it needs to keep improving it-with contracts like those announced today more evidence that SpaceX is on the right path.
Several thoughts
“If you build it, they will come.”
“Find a need and fill it..”
Re: Blue Origin – We all hope they will become much more. Yes, they have a rocket. It was able to return and land on the barge. Unless Bezos cuts off the $$$, it could continue as his space hobby. To be more, they will have to get serious. They do not have to replicate SpaceX to be more.
Right now, SpaceX reminds me so much of the career of Rush Limbaugh. For most of his career, there was no one (competition) even in his rear view mirror. If Blue Origin does not step up, someone else will. Eventually, there will be all kinds of space and Solar System activity. I would love to move forward in time, to see people working and/or living on the large asteroids.
Jeff Wright,
Starship will “pan out” like gangbusters. The last two Block 2 missions worked fine and progress on Block 3 will proceed still faster this year. If I were you I’d quit wasting time sticking pins in Starship voodoo dolls and spare some cigars and rum for Jobu so nothing fatal happens on Artemis 2.
Starlink is never going to be “complete.” A fifth of it is going to need replacement every year and the replacement birds will continue to improve over those being replaced. The FCC just authorized 7,500 new birds for Starlink so even completion of a full Starlink build-out-as-authorized continues to recede. Falcon 9 will certainly remain in service at least through the end of ISS and, in the meantime, it makes economic sense to fly it as much as possible with Starlink V2 birds aboard in parallel with the ramp-up of Starlink V3 deployments via Starship.
Monopolies. Are. Never. Good.
M. Murcek: then SpaceX’s competitors should step up their game. Their failure to effectively compete is not caused by duplicity or cheating on SpaceX’s part.
I wouldn’t call SpaceX a monopoly, even within the U.S. launch market, though it’s not far from one, arguably.
But with Vulcan and New Glenn moving into operational status, and — just to look at the U.S. medium/heavy lift market — Rocket Lab’s Neutron, Stoke’s Nova, Relativity’s Terran R, and Northrop/Firefly’s Eclipse and MLV coming to market shortly behind them, I think this problem, if it is a problem, is already in the process of sorting itself out. SpaceX will remain market-dominant for a while to come, but there’s enough looming competition to provide ways of keeping them honest, and enough major customers keen on giving them business to ensure that result.
Re: SpaceX Monopoly
I just remembered that SpaceX has launched several of its “competitors.” Amazon Kuiper/LEO, OneWeb, and even the ESA has hired SpaceX to launch GPS and other satellites.
I suppose the only entity that has not hired SpaceX are the Chicoms.
No Voodoo dolls here. Mr. Eagleson.
To Patrick—I don’t hope Starship fails.
The thing is—there always comes the time when the great man’s reach extends beyond his grasp.
The Boeing of the Incredibles (747) needed to be building SS/SH.
SpaceX needed to build something like SLS—-something you could knock out with a handful of engines and not worry about reuse right away.
Had I been Elon—I would have made space metallurgy priority #1
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-89784-0
RLVs would then be built in orbit, and Starlink complete.
Speaking of space metal:
https://www.spacedaily.com/m/reports/Asteroid_metals_harden_under_extreme_particle_blasts_999.html
I would be more worried about the government monopsony.
Jeff Wright,
There is no real evidence for the proposition that Elon’s reach is about to exceed his grasp. He’s the greatest inventor/industrialist in US history.
Eli Whitney and a few Brits invented the modern textile industry. Whitney, more impactfully, also invented the concept and early practice of interchangeable machine parts. Edison invented the electric power industry, electric lighting and gets partial credit for having invented consumer electronics. More impactfully, he also invented the concept of organized research and development. John Ericsson invented the screw propeller and the turreted gun for naval ships, both of which were later adapted for aircraft use and the latter of which was also adapted for use on land vehicles. The other great inventors, engineers and tinkerers of American history pretty much had single hits to their names.
Musk, though, has already remade or heavily influenced banking, land vehicles, rockets, broadband Internet, grid power management, tunneling, brain-machine interfaces and is leading the race to practical kinetic AI-based autonomy for vehicles and humanoid robots not to mention the data centers needed to accomplish this. His major accomplishments now number in the high single-digits and he’s a long way from being done.
Boeing wouldn’t have been up to designing and building SH/SS on the best day it ever had. The key to that whole project, the Raptor engine, would have been way too far outside its wheelhouse. In any case, Boeing never saw space as being more than an adjunct to its aircraft business.
North American might have tried had it had more guts in the late ’70s and early ’80s when it was playing round with concepts like Star-Raker and Rocketdyne was still one of its divisions. Ultimately, it wimped out, stumbled and got bought – and dismembered.
Musk and SpaceX are black swans. SpaceX was founded to make humanity multi-planetary. Nothing like SLS would have been remotely suitable for that chore so SpaceX went in another direction as soon as it possibly could.
SpaceX has done a lot of cutting-edge metallurgy. It doesn’t post billboards about that on major freeways, but that doesn’t mean the work hasn’t been done.
North American became part of Boeing—MacDoug was the poison pill.
Marquardt another casualty of musical chairs.
As an almost 60 year old GenX-er, I grew up in the wrong era. Too early to be part of aerospace in the 1940s-1970’s, too late to be part of what is only now another aerospace revolution just starting—all I remember is stagnation. Popular Science articles would get my hopes up—and then DC-X would tump over. Gary Hudson would talk big—then….nothing.
That whole era poisoned my thinking.
So be it.
Pessimists are never disappointed.
Dick Eagleson,
You wrote: “More impactfully, he also invented the concept of organized research and development.”
I call this invention a think tank, and as impactful as the electric light was, the think tank is used everywhere to great effect.
“Musk, though, has already remade or heavily influenced …”
This is an example of a lack of think tank. Your list are accomplishments performed at different places or companies, not in one think tank. Musk seems to have decomposed that invention back into specializations. There are still teams working on these projects, so I think that we could say that he has also remade the think tank.
“The key to that whole project, the Raptor engine, would have been way too far outside its wheelhouse.”
I’m thinking that everything about Starship is outside of Boeing’s wheelhouse. Starship is a radical revolution in rocketry, from the insanity of keeping the fairings on the upper stage all the way to orbit, to flying rockets that were built outdoors(!) right next to an ocean, to catching it on the fly with chopsticks, which is beyond insanity.
“SpaceX was founded to make humanity multi-planetary.”
That is another insane goal, so I guess we know where SpaceX’s tradition of insanity came from.
Landing on the Moon was considered insane as well. And then it happened.