Space Force awards nine launch contracts to SpaceX
In announcing its next round of satellite launch awards, the Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) has awarded all nine launches (valued at $739 millon total) to SpaceX, bypassing both Blue Origin and ULA.
SSC awarded the [three] SDA-2 missions to SpaceX for launches projected to begin in [the fourth quarter of fiscal year ’26], and awarded the [two] SDA-3 missions to SpaceX for launches to begin in [the third quarter of fiscal year ’27]. SSC also awarded the [four] NTO-5 launches to SpaceX projected to occur in [the first quarter of fiscal year ’27 and the second quarter of fiscal year ’28]. The total value of these awards is $739M.
It is surprising that SpaceX got all nine contracts. Even though SpaceX charges less than ULA, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is not yet certified by the Pentagon for operational launches, it has been military policy in recent years to distribute this work to more than one launch provider so as to guarantee a redundancy. ULA exists today for expressly that reason. In the past it would have certainly gotten at least one of these launches.
As for Blue Origin, the Space Force could have awarded it at least one of the later launches in ’27 and ’28, contingent on getting New Glenn certified.
That the Space Force bypassed both companies entirely speaks volumes. It appears it has decided to simply go with the best product now available, and to heck with redundancy.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
In announcing its next round of satellite launch awards, the Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) has awarded all nine launches (valued at $739 millon total) to SpaceX, bypassing both Blue Origin and ULA.
SSC awarded the [three] SDA-2 missions to SpaceX for launches projected to begin in [the fourth quarter of fiscal year ’26], and awarded the [two] SDA-3 missions to SpaceX for launches to begin in [the third quarter of fiscal year ’27]. SSC also awarded the [four] NTO-5 launches to SpaceX projected to occur in [the first quarter of fiscal year ’27 and the second quarter of fiscal year ’28]. The total value of these awards is $739M.
It is surprising that SpaceX got all nine contracts. Even though SpaceX charges less than ULA, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is not yet certified by the Pentagon for operational launches, it has been military policy in recent years to distribute this work to more than one launch provider so as to guarantee a redundancy. ULA exists today for expressly that reason. In the past it would have certainly gotten at least one of these launches.
As for Blue Origin, the Space Force could have awarded it at least one of the later launches in ’27 and ’28, contingent on getting New Glenn certified.
That the Space Force bypassed both companies entirely speaks volumes. It appears it has decided to simply go with the best product now available, and to heck with redundancy.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
1. This is striking, too, because the first batch of Lane 1 launches went 100% to SpaceX back in 2024. (Those were all SDA payloads.) Right now, SpaceX is sweeping the field so far on Lane 1 awards.
2. Lane 1 prioritizes not just price, but speed and launch cadence, too. And I think that is the messsage the Space Force was sending on this batch: they want these satellites up speedily, and on a schedule they can rely on. Which, I mean….SpaceX is launching 3 to 4 times a week now, so this is almost like a bus route, so speed and schedule are assured and then some. Clearly, they think only SpaceX can give them that!
3. Blue Origin losing out doesn’t surprise, but ULA is another story. We know the SF has been pretty vocal about their unhappiness over the last two years and more with Vulcan delays. It is hard to NOT see this as registering that they’re still not happy with where Vulcan is. I mean, had they just tossed one or two of these to ULA, the schedule risk would be modest, but they didn’t even do that. They gave them ALL to SpaceX. There are going to be a lot of frowny faces at ULA headquarters this weekend, because that’s money left on the table. These aren’t even Lane 2 launches!
4. How should we read this in connection with Tory Bruno’s departure several days ago? It makes you wonder.
5. And why *is* Vulcan still so slow to get launches off? The next Vulcan launch is USSF-87 on Feb. 2, so that’s nice, but this is only the fourth launch of Vulcan! I just don’t understand why it’s taking so long for ULA to get it in gear. It’s certified now. They have a big backlog. The Space Force has been insisting that they have payloads sitting in clean rooms waiting for a (Vulcan) ride.
USSF is doing two things.
1. Throwing out contracts to help the market grow.
2. Providing National Security.
ULA is, IMHO, struggling. Blue Origin is developing. Both appear to have enough future manifests that they are not in danger of collapse.
This gives the USSF leeway in awarding these missions.
1. They can choose reliability. SpaceX is the most reliable consistent option today. This is irrefutable.
2. It should make the competition hungry.And the path to satisfying that hunger is to build their own reputation . For reliability.
This aligns with the new DoW emphasis on warfighter effectiveness. These things absolutely positively have to launch when needed and Blue Origin and ULA don’t seem to be able to deliver that.
Perversely, the presence of a booked backlog seems to be a veritable permission slip for BO and ULA to avoid the upset of skills revitalization and process streamlining, and continue to turn the crank slowly, well lubricated by risk-free taxpayer money!
Instead of providing a means to allow productive acceleration, this backlog seems to have encouraged BO and ULA to relax! Maybe we need to start taking this “incentive” away?!
Perhaps that will get the attention of the “Backlogged Obsolescence” and “Underperforming Laxity Assured” organizations?!
Even if Starship doesn’t pan out, Falcon’s hand can only get stronger.
Once Starlink is more or less complete—that will free up Falcon’s schedule.
Like Starship isn’t going to pan out. You keep hoping, but you are going to be disappointed.
Space X provides its own back up and redundancy.
They have multiple assembly buildings, Multiple launch towers at multiple launch sights.
At that point the only reason to have another launch provider is in case the whole of Space X refuses to launch anything for the government.
I just don’t see that happening, ever.
And that is not even counting on Starship.. Starship just lets them push a larger load to orbit at one time.
Falcon 9, as good as it is, is not good enough to enable the settlement of Mars, the expansion of Starlink, industrializing the Moon, and flying payloads for anyone else all at the same time. Fortunately, there seem to be no insuperable barriers to full reuse at this point, and SpaceX has the funds it needs to keep improving it-with contracts like those announced today more evidence that SpaceX is on the right path.