The damage and repair of TDRS-M creates complicated scheduling problems
Because of the launch delay caused by the accident that damaged the antenna of NASA’s TDRS-M communication satellite, requiring its replacement, the agency is now faced with a cascading series of scheduling problems.
They are now aiming for an August 10 launch of TDRS-M on a ULA Atlas 5. This will then force a delay in the August 12 launch of a Dragon capsule to ISS to August 14, which can’t be delayed past August 16 because of a scheduled Russian spacewalk on ISS that must happen on August 17 because it involves the release of two satellites. Making things even more complicated is Dragon’s cargo, which includes mice for a rodent experiment. If it doesn’t occur before August 16, the mice will then have to be replaced with fresh mice, causing further delays.
There is then even the chance that these scheduling problems might impact SpaceX’s scheduled August 28’s launch of the X-37B, as well as ULA’s scheduled August 31 launch of surveillance satellite.
One additional tidbit: This Dragon will be the last unused cargo capsule. All future SpaceX cargo missions will use previously flown capsules.
I should add that these scheduling issues illustrate starkly the growing need for more launch sites. There is money to be made here, fulfilling this need.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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Because of the launch delay caused by the accident that damaged the antenna of NASA’s TDRS-M communication satellite, requiring its replacement, the agency is now faced with a cascading series of scheduling problems.
They are now aiming for an August 10 launch of TDRS-M on a ULA Atlas 5. This will then force a delay in the August 12 launch of a Dragon capsule to ISS to August 14, which can’t be delayed past August 16 because of a scheduled Russian spacewalk on ISS that must happen on August 17 because it involves the release of two satellites. Making things even more complicated is Dragon’s cargo, which includes mice for a rodent experiment. If it doesn’t occur before August 16, the mice will then have to be replaced with fresh mice, causing further delays.
There is then even the chance that these scheduling problems might impact SpaceX’s scheduled August 28’s launch of the X-37B, as well as ULA’s scheduled August 31 launch of surveillance satellite.
One additional tidbit: This Dragon will be the last unused cargo capsule. All future SpaceX cargo missions will use previously flown capsules.
I should add that these scheduling issues illustrate starkly the growing need for more launch sites. There is money to be made here, fulfilling this need.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
So what can be done about adding launch sites? Where, in what time frame, at what cost?
SpaceX has been working near Brownsville, but that’s been ongoing for a while and apparently won’t be finished for another while.
There are numerous abandoned pads on Merritt Island. Can these be refurbished and upgraded at reasonable cost, or are the bottlenecks at Canaveral in other areas, so that more pads in Florida wouldn’t help? Isn’t automated range and abort management supposed to come along soon and ease the time-between-launch constraints at Canveral?
Wallops Island? Vandenberg (is that polar only? Are there missions that could use polar, but haven’t for whatever reason?) Kodiak Spaceport in Alaska? (Too close to Russia and N. Korea, possibly) Does a spaceport really have to be on a coast? (Kodiak, Baikonur, for examples)
Who would be willing to pay for this? The Air Force, possibly. Blue Origin? Where are they planning to launch New Glenn?
Diane Wilson,
To address your thoughts and answer your questions:
1. SpaceX is a company that recognizes the need and the potential profit from more spaceports, which is why they are building one.
2. More launchpads in Florida doesn’t really solve the problem, because of range issues. And yes, automated range and abort management is helping, but it can’t do enough if you need to launch daily.
3. Wallops Island is an option, but it also has limited facilities and is far north, which reduces payload capacity.
4. Vandenberg’s location prevents most low inclination orbits, as this would have the rocket fly over the U.S.
5. Kodiak’s limitation is, like Wallops, its high latitude. Its nearness to Russia is not a big deal.
6. Private companies should pay for this. They stand to make money from it. Why should the taxpayer foot the bill?
7. Blue Origin has a lease to launch in Florida. They presently have not announced plans to create their own launch facility anywhere else.
Robert, thank you for your answers.
Re: Air Force funding launch sites, I was listening to another podcast on military space ( http://www.dotnetrocks.com/?show=1452 ) that suggested that part of the Air Force response to anti-satellite attacks in future conflicts would need to be the ability to launch large numbers of replacements, rapidly. If true, this might be a reason for some government funding. Otherwise, I agree, the government doesn’t need to be in the launch business. Given the snafu caused by August launch rescheduling (now confirmed), I expect that a private enterprise would be far more responsive to these problems.
There is an update to the article:
“UPDATE: After close of business on Wednesday, NASA announced an additional 10 day slip to TDRS-M, with a new request submitted for 20 August 2017 in a launch window that day of 07:56 – 08:36 EDT. It is unclear at this point if the requested 28 July MDR will now slip as well or if it will remain on its requested day.”
This may help the CRS-12 launch, but may disrupt other, later, Eastern Range launches.