ULA loses another launch contract to SpaceX
The Space Force yesterday announced it has switched rocket companies for its next GPS satellite launch, taking the launch away from ULA and its Vulcan rocket and giving it to SpaceX.
SpaceX could launch the GPS III Space Vehicle 09 (SV09) within the next few weeks, as the satellite was entering the final stages of pre-flight preparations. As part of the swap, United Launch Alliance (ULA) will instead launch the third of the next generation of Global Positioning System satellites. The GPS III Follow-on (GPS IIIF) SV13 satellite was originally scheduled to launch on a Falcon Heavy, but will now fly on Vulcan.
“SV09 and SV13 were traded between ULA and SpaceX to get capability to orbit as soon as possible, for the same reason as the prior swap, which resulted in the last GPS launch in May 2025,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “The trade results in an overall net cost savings to the government and again demonstrates our sustained commitment to moving at speed to deliver combat-credible capabilities on orbit to meet warfighter needs.”
While at first glance it appears ULA has lost nothing, the military’s decision here bodes ill for the company. First, it indicates ULA has been unable to get Vulcan ready on time, forcing the Space Force to look to someone who could.
Second, this is the second time the Pentagon has taken a launch from ULA for these reasons. Increasingly it appears the military is losing patience with ULA’s inability to launch on time. For example, in awarding its most recent set of nine launches, it gave them all to SpaceX, bypassing ULA entirely.
In the past the Space Force tolerated ULA’s delays and high launch cost in order to guarantee the military had more than one launch provider. It now appears it is placing more importance on reliability and cost savings. And as I say, this bodes ill for ULA, which has not done a good job of providing either.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The Space Force yesterday announced it has switched rocket companies for its next GPS satellite launch, taking the launch away from ULA and its Vulcan rocket and giving it to SpaceX.
SpaceX could launch the GPS III Space Vehicle 09 (SV09) within the next few weeks, as the satellite was entering the final stages of pre-flight preparations. As part of the swap, United Launch Alliance (ULA) will instead launch the third of the next generation of Global Positioning System satellites. The GPS III Follow-on (GPS IIIF) SV13 satellite was originally scheduled to launch on a Falcon Heavy, but will now fly on Vulcan.
“SV09 and SV13 were traded between ULA and SpaceX to get capability to orbit as soon as possible, for the same reason as the prior swap, which resulted in the last GPS launch in May 2025,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “The trade results in an overall net cost savings to the government and again demonstrates our sustained commitment to moving at speed to deliver combat-credible capabilities on orbit to meet warfighter needs.”
While at first glance it appears ULA has lost nothing, the military’s decision here bodes ill for the company. First, it indicates ULA has been unable to get Vulcan ready on time, forcing the Space Force to look to someone who could.
Second, this is the second time the Pentagon has taken a launch from ULA for these reasons. Increasingly it appears the military is losing patience with ULA’s inability to launch on time. For example, in awarding its most recent set of nine launches, it gave them all to SpaceX, bypassing ULA entirely.
In the past the Space Force tolerated ULA’s delays and high launch cost in order to guarantee the military had more than one launch provider. It now appears it is placing more importance on reliability and cost savings. And as I say, this bodes ill for ULA, which has not done a good job of providing either.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
I’m often told that ULA isn’t going anywhere any time soon, and while I can buy that for perhaps another decade, things like this appear to hasten the date of its demise.
The EELV/USAF/AEROSPACE COMPANY guys are long in the tooth.
They ticked off Ares and SpaceX alive.
I haven’t commented much on these flights, because something is happening here that has not been made public.
”…it indicates ULA has been unable to get Vulcan ready on time.”
Whatever the reason for this change of venue, this isn’t it. The Vulcan for this flight has been sitting at the launch site for well over a year now waiting for its payload. If the Space Force wanted ULA to launch it, all it had to do was ship the payload to ULA. For reasons not publicly identified, the Space Force won’t do that. It could have been launched in December had the Space Force done so.
”…this is the second time the Pentagon has taken a launch from ULA for these reasons.”
This wasn’t the reason the first time either. Back then not only was the Vulcan for that flight already at the launch site waiting for its payload, there was an open launch slot as well. Had the Space Force delivered the payload to ULA instead of SpaceX, ULA would have launched it last May. They wouldn’t even have had to displace a Kuiper flight to do it, because the Kuiper satellites weren’t ready to fly then either.
So whatever the reason is, it’s not that Vulcan isn’t ready.
Nate P,
ULA may have a few more years, but I don’t think it has anywhere near another decade in it. Right now, it has a bunch of Amazon Leo launches contracted but had better get about doing those pretty soon if it expects to keep them. Amazon is perfectly capable of doing what the Space Force has lately been doing.
In any case, I don’t see ULA being in a good position to pursue additional Amazon Leo work once its current contract is completed. There will be too many other reusable or partly-reusable alternatives offering lower launch prices as Amazon Leo moves from initial deployment to maintenance replacement of its constellation.
The wild card would be if ULA actually gets bought by some other entity. There was a recent rumor involving Rocket Lab as a potential purchaser. If such a deal was to take place, it’s hard to see why RL would continue Vulcan. The main ULA asset of any likely use to RL would be the Decatur manufacturing plant. So, if such a deal happens, it looks more like being a real estate play than a rocket play.
Jeff Wright,
I think I’d like chunky blue cheese dressing on my word salad this time, Jeff.
mkent,
It seems to me that if ULA was actually ready to launch the two payloads it had “taken away” from it and handed to SpaceX, then ULA is in even worse trouble with the Space Force than we thought. If readiness isn’t actually the issue, what do you think is? Cost? I’ll admit to being a tad baffled.
”It seems to me that if ULA was actually ready to launch the two payloads it had ‘taken away’ from it and handed to SpaceX, then ULA is in even worse trouble with the Space Force than we thought.”
That thought has occurred to me as well.
”If readiness isn’t actually the issue, what do you think is? Cost?”
Having done my share of government contracting, I can think of a whole bunch of things it _could_ be, some of which reflect poorly on ULA and some of which reflect poorly on the Space Force, but I’m not sure of what it actually is.
It could be that the combined loads analysis found some incompatibility between Vulcan and GPS III. Or perhaps there’s a particular Vulcan vibration mode that GPS III is susceptible to. Or perhaps the government contracting officer just doesn’t like ULA. (Some of them can be rather petty. They are government bureaucrats after all.) Or it could be something else entirely.
As for cost, Falcon 9 is cheaper than Vulcan, which is cheaper than Falcon Heavy, which is cheaper than Vulcan Centaur Heavy. Launching a GPS 3 satellite on Falcon 9 instead of Vulcan saves money, and so does launching a GPS 3F satellite on Vulcan instead of Falcon Heavy. The net effect is to convert a Falcon Heavy launch into a Falcon 9 launch, so the switch saves money in each direction.
But this was known when the original launch assignments were made, so it would be surprising if the switch were done for that reason, but I really don’t know. It’s still a mystery.