anti-sat test – Behind The Black

September 16, 2022 Quick space links

September 16, 2022 4:02 pm Robert Zimmerman

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, who trolls Twitter so I don’t have to.

UAE signs deal with China to do joint Moon mission

No details as yet released, but expect more by next week.

Ariane 6 core stage test model completes test program in French Guiana

This is not a real Ariane 6, but a mock-up used to test roll-out, assembly, and launch procedures in advance of the arrival of the real thing.

Elon Musk gives Jay Leno a tour of Boca Chica

The link includes a short clip. The full tour will air on Jay Leno’s Garage on CNBC on September 21st.

Video from UK startup Black Arrow showing its proposed smallsat launch rocket, launched from a ship at sea

The concept is brilliant. Since smallsat rockets are designed to ship in containers or trucks and launch from simple concrete pads, bringing everything with them, there really is no reason they couldn’t also launch from the deck of a ship.

Assessment of the objects remaining from Russia’s November 2021 anti-satellite test

Generally good news. According to this analysis, of the 1,785 objects catalogued, only 585 remain in orbit, and of those 547 are expected to burn up within the next three years. This will leave only 38 pieces of debris threatening ISS and other satellites.

Federal military-industrial complex discussing ways to compensate private satellite constellations if attacked by foreign powers

The level of corruption I smell from this story sickens me. There might be good reasons to do this, but I am certain in the end none of those reasons will drive this new policy. Instead, it will be designed as a way to suck more money from the taxpayers for private companies who are friends of politcians and donate to their campaign coffers.

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Debris from Russian anti-sat test causing numerous near Starlink collisions

August 9, 2022 12:04 pm Robert Zimmerman

According to an official of a company that helps track space junk, the scattered debris from the satellite destroyed by Russia in an anti-satellite test in 2021 has had numerous near collisions with multiple Starlink satellites.

In the Aug. 6 event, Oltrogge said there were more than 6,000 close approaches, defined as being within 10 kilometers, involving 841 Starlink satellites, about 30% of the constellation. It’s unclear how many, if any, of the satellites had to maneuver to avoid collisions.

This conjunction squall was exacerbated by a new group of Starlink satellites. SpaceX launched the first set of “Group 3” Starlink satellites July 10 from Vandenberg Space Force Base into polar orbit, followed by a second set July 22. A third batch of Group 3 satellites is scheduled to launch Aug. 12.

The problem is only going to get worse, as this junk will be in orbit for quite some time.

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ISS forced to dodge space junk from Russia’s November ’21 anti-sat test

June 20, 2022 9:26 am Robert Zimmerman

Last week the Russians were forced to use the engines of the Progress cargo capsule docked to ISS to shift the station’s orbit slightly to avoid a collision with some debris left over from Russia’s anti-satellite test in November 2021.

“I confirm that at 22.03 Moscow time, the engines of the Russian Progress MS-20 transport cargo ship carried out an unscheduled maneuver to avoid a dangerous approach of the International Space Station with a fragment of the Kosmos-1408 spacecraft,” Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin wrote on Telegram (opens in new tab), according to a Google translation, using Roscosmos’ designation for Progress 81.

While the Russians have consistently denied the anti-sat test and the 1,500 satellite pieces it created would cause a collision threat, yesterday’s action was not a surprise, and was predicted by many right after the test.

The concern however is not the debris that has been identified and is being tracked, since collisions from that stuff can be predicted and avoided. The concern is from the smaller pieces that were not identified.

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NASA: Russian anti-satellite test in November doubled the threat to ISS

January 19, 2022 9:17 am Robert Zimmerman

According to a presentation by a NASA official at a conference today, further tracking of the debris from the Russian anti-satellite test on November 15, 2021 suggests that it has doubled the overall chance of a debris collision with ISS.

NASA ISS Program Director Robyn Gatens told a NASA advisory committee today that the November 15, 2021 Russian ASAT test forced the Expedition 66 crew to implement safe haven procedures, closing hatches to parts of the ISS and sheltering in the Soyuz and Crew Dragon spacecraft that could return them to Earth if worse came to worse.

Russia denied the test imperiled the crew, but Gatens said the threat of a piece of debris penetrating the ISS now has doubled to one chance in 25,000-33,000 orbits, versus one in 50,000 orbits prior to the test. The ISS does about 6,000 orbits a year.

It should be noted that, according to these numbers, the overall threat seems quite manageable. Nonetheless, the Russian anti-sat test was entirely irresponsible, especially because it targeted a defunct satellite in an orbit slightly higher than ISS, which means its debris will over time move into ISS’s orbit. The test also violated the Outer Space Treaty, which Russia has signed, which requires all signatories to control what they do in space so that it does not threaten either the persons or property of anyone else.

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NASA postpones ISS spacewalk due to debris from Russian anti-sat test

November 30, 2021 9:41 am Robert Zimmerman

NASA today postponed a planned ISS spacewalk to fix an antenna because of a threat from debris from the Russian anti-sat test.

On Tuesday, about five hours before the astronauts Thomas Marshburn and Kayla Barron were due to venture outside the space station, Nasa said on Twitter that the spacewalk to fix a failed antenna had been cancelled. “NASA received a debris notification for the space station. Due to the lack of opportunity to properly assess the risk it could pose to the astronauts, teams have decided to delay the 30 November spacewalk until more information is available,” it tweeted.

This problem is only going to get worse. The Russians did something with that anti-satellite test that was either so stupid as to defy logic, or intentional in the worst sort of way. Russia’s actions actually suggest the Putin administration wanted to sabotage ISS.

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