Tag: Russia

Russia further centralizes and consolidates its shrinking space sector

9:43 am

Roscosmos: a paper tiger
Roscosmos: a paper tiger

Russia’s state-run TASS press agency today announced that the operations of much of its space sector has now been moved to a newly completed centralized facility on the west side of Moscow.

Over 30 enterprises of Russia’s rocket and space industry, based in Moscow, will move their production sites to the newly created National Space Center, Roscosmos chief Dmitry Bakanov said. “We now have a single platform, where 35 enterprises will be concentrated in one area,” Bakanov said in the National Space Center, visited by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday.

The National Space Center opened in Moscow on Saturday. A complex of building with the total area of 276,000 square meters, is located in the West of Moscow. It’s a joint project of the Moscow Government and Roscosmos.

Sounds neat, eh? In fact, this illustrates how Russia’s space sector is declining. First, Putin in the 2000s centralized the entire industry into a single corporation, Roscosmos, run by the government. That Soviet-style top-down structure eliminated competition and acted to block new companies from forming.

Second, when Russia invaded the Ukraine in 2022 Roscosmos lost billions in revenue when its international customer base cancelled all their contracts and boycotted the country.

Consolidating all these “companies”, which are simply divisions of Roscosmos, into this one facility might save money, but it prevents independent action and competition. It also indicates Russia’s lack of cash.

Most importantly, this move presages the eventually shutdown of many of Russia’s space operations when ISS is retired. Russia has said it is building a new station, but its ability to launch anything new has been abysmal in the 21st century. Routinely it announces new projects which never fly. There is no reason to expect its proposed space station to be anything different.

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Two launches in the past day

12:19 pm

The beat goes on. Since yesterday afternoon there have been two more global rocket launches, by Russia and SpaceX.

First, Russia launched the sixth GPS-type satellite as part of its next generation Glonass constellation, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia. The rocket’s lower stage fell several different drop zones in Russia. No word if they landed near any habitable areas.

Next, SpaceX this morning launched another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its 28th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

117 SpaceX
53 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 117 to 92.

As for the rankings for the most reuse by a rocket, this is the present leader board:

39 Discovery space shuttle
33 Atlantis space shuttle
30 Falcon 9 booster B1067
28 Columbia space shuttle
28 Falcon 9 booster B1071
27 Falcon 9 booster B1069
27 Falcon 9 booster B1063

Sources here and here.

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Russia launches Progress to ISS

9:24 am

Russia today successfully launched a Progress freighter to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan.

The freighter will dock with the aft port of the Zvezda module in two days. When it does so, expect NASA to require its astronauts to close the hatch between the American and Russia parts of ISS. The agency has real concerns about the stress fractures in Zvezda’s hull that are the cause of the station’s air leaks, and fears it could at some point fail catastrophically during a docking. The odds of this happening are small, but they are larger than they should be.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

115 SpaceX
53 China
12 Rocket Lab
12 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 115 to 91. The company has another launch scheduled for later today.

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Cargo Dragon completes test burn to raise ISS’s orbit

8:51 am

The cargo Dragon that docked with ISS in late August successfully completed yesterday an engine burn lasting more than five minutes to see if it could raise ISS’s orbit.

On Wednesday, Sept. 3, SpaceX’s Dragon completed an initial burn to test the spacecraft’s new capability to help maintain the altitude of the International Space Station. Two Draco engines located in the trunk of Dragon, which contains an independent propellant system, were used to adjust the space station’s orbit through a maneuver lasting five minutes, three seconds. The initial test burn increased the station’s altitude by around one mile at perigee, or low point of station’s orbit, leaving the station in an orbit of 260.9 x 256.3 miles. The new boost kit in Dragon will help sustain the orbiting lab’s altitude through a series of longer burns planned periodically throughout the fall of 2025.

The Dragon will remain docked with ISS until December. It is expected it will do additional test burns during that time.

NASA wishes to get this capability from its own spacecraft so as to no longer have to rely entirely on the Russians, who have traditionally done these orbital adjustments using its Progress cargo freighters. SpaceX likely also wants to do these tests as an adjunct to its contract to build the de-orbit vehicle that will bring ISS down, after it is retired.

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Russia launches classified military payload

8:40 am

Russia today successfully launched a classified military payload comprising “multiple military spacecraft”, its Angara-1 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia.

This was Russia’s second launch in two days, something it rarely does any longer. It was also the fifth launch of this version of Russia’s new family of Angara rockets, using a modular design that can be configured for different size payloads. Launched into a polar orbit, the lower stages crashed in the ocean in the Arctic and Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

101 SpaceX
47 China
11 Rocket Lab
11 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 101 to 82.

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Russia launches returnable capsule for month-long biology research mission

10:44 am

Russia today successfully launched the first Bion-M returnable capsule in more than a dozen years, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan.

The capsule will remain in orbit for about a month doing weightlessness and radiation experiments with a variety of biological samples, 1,500 fruit flies, and 75 mice. Though similar to the commercial capsules recently launched by Varda, Bion-M is different in that it appears the research has no marketability. As a government-run project by Russian Academy of Science, no effort was made to use weightlessness to produce a product for sale on Earth.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

101 SpaceX
47 China
11 Rocket Lab
10 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 101 to 81.

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Kazakhstan looking for commercial rocket startups outside Russia to launch from Baikonur

9:01 am

The Kazakhstan government is now hoping to convert portions of its Baikonur spaceport not leased by Russia so that international rocket startups, or maybe its own commercial rocket startup, could launch from there.

While much of the site is still under Russian lease, Kazakhstan acquired the 100 km² Zenit launch site and assembly centre in 2018, and earlier this year took over the former “Gagarin” launch pad, which is now a tourist attraction. This opens the door for Astana [Kazakhstan’s capital] to negotiate directly with foreign operators.

… To give itself an edge and capitalise on the site’s potential, Kazakhstan plans to set up a special economic zone for “national space projects and foreign start-ups.” Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has already confirmed talks with India’s Skyroot, China’s Deep Blue Aerospace, and several European firms. “We briefly discussed options for launch pads or joint grant applications,” confirmed Christian Schiemer, CEO of Germany’s HyImpulse. Other interested parties include Germany’s OHB and Rocket Factory Augsburg, as well as Airbus Defence & Space and Luxembourg’s SES.

China has also held talks about using Baikonur.

All of this however is very speculative, with sources expressing skepticism.

Kazakhstan however increasingly needs to do something to save Baikonur. At the moment the Russians have only one active launchpad, for its Soyuz-2 rocket. Two other launchpads for its Proton rocket are listed as active, but that rocket is largely retired. A fourth launchpad for Russia’s proposed new Soyuz-5 rocket remains unfinished, its future uncertain. With Russia increasingly shifting launches to its new Vostochny spaceport in the far east, it is very possible that it will eventually abandon Baikonur.

Kazakhstan has other reasons to make deals with foreign startups. Such deals will make it more independent from its untrustworthy neighbor to the north.

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Azerbaijan officials hold cooperation talks with SpaceX

9:10 am

In connection with the visit of Azerbaijan’s president to the United States, he and other officials held a meeting with SpaceX vice president Stephanie Bednarek to discuss possible areas of cooperation. From Azerbaijan’s state-run press:

At the meeting, we noted Azerbaijan’s economic potential, strategic development directions, and favorable investment climate. We discussed prospects for cooperation with SpaceX, including partnership opportunities in the application of innovative and space technologies, artificial intelligence solutions, and knowledge and experience transfer.

In plain language, Azerbaijan is considering buying services from SpaceX. That it is doing so underlines once again the negative consequences of Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine. Azerbaijan now fears Russia, and is looking elsewhere for aid. It also senses Russia’s increasing weakness, economically, technologically, and militarily, making it more willing to forge alliances with others.

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Sources suggest major job layoffs and salary cuts about to sweep Russia

2:35 pm

According to various sources, major job layoffs and salary cuts are about to sweep Russia, affecting 800,000 people working for nine different large companies.

The cuts include layoffs, salary cuts, shortened work hours, and unpaid leave, with many involved in the aviation industry.

According to the tweet at the link, the blame goes to the Ukraine war and the collapse of the Russian economy because of it. That might or might not be true, but the speculation is certainly reasonable.

This collapse has been predicted now for several years. If it happens Putin’s future as head of Russia might finally be reaching its use-by date.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Russia desperately lobbies the U.S. to continue and expand its space partnership

10:06 am

Roscosmos: a paper tiger
Roscosmos: a paper tiger

A string of short articles in Russia’s state-run press today, describing the meetings between the head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Bakanov, and interim NASA administrator Sean Duffy, suggest strongly that Russia is desperate to link itself with someone in order to continue its generally bankrupt space program.

Bakanov is making his first visit to the U.S. He and Duffy are also conducting the first face-to-face talks by the heads of their respective agencies in eight years. While the U.S. press has been entirely uninterested in these discussions, mostly because it knows little of substance will come of them other than an agreement to maintain the partnership at ISS through its planned retirement in 2030, the reaction by Russia’s press has been remarkably fawning, repeatedly proposing the U.S. and Russia expand their partnership beyond ISS:

Very clearly, Bakanov was trying to convince Duffy to consider a greater partnership, whereby Roscosmos and NASA do other space projects together. He might have even been offering to join NASA’s Artemis program to explore the Moon.

It appears from the other Russian state-run reports, however, that Duffy’s response was diplomatic but unenthused by such a proposal. All he apparently agreed to was to continue the ISS partnership, until the station’s retirement.
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Russians: Air leak on ISS reduced but still on going

9:48 am

According to a report in Russia’s state-run press today, the repairs to the air leak in the Russian Zvezda module on ISS have reduced the rate of air lose significantly, but have failed to eliminate it.

Long-term observations have shown that the leak in the interstitial chamber of the Zvezda module of the International Space Station, which was reported to have been fixed in June, is still ongoing, though its rate has slowed significantly, Roscosmos Executive Director of Manned Space Programs, special presidential envoy for international space cooperation Sergey Krikalyov said.

“The leak is ongoing. We continue our efforts to find and fix it, with the recent repairs having seriously reduced the rate of air leakage. For some time we even thought that we had found the last crack and sealed it, though long-term observations have shown that it (air loss – TASS) continues,” he told a press conference ahead of the launch of the Crew Dragon Endeavour spacecraft carrying the Crew-11 mission crew.

Even if Russia succeeds eventually in sealing the leak entirely, this does not solve a more fundamental problem, the existence of stress fractures in the hull of Zvezda that have caused the leaks. That module, built in the 1990s and the second oldest module on ISS, remains at serious risk of catastrophic failure due to these fractures. That the leak has not yet been sealed suggests that new cracks are steadily forming even as Russian astronauts patch older cracks.

Though they do not say so, officials at both Roscosmos, NASA, and their partners in Europe and Japan are all praying that the station can last until 2030, when they plan to retire and de-orbit it. They all know however that there is a great risk that Zvezda will not cooperate, and cause an unplanned shut down much earlier.

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Russia launches two weather satellites

8:36 am

Russia today successfully placed two weather satellites into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Vostochny spaceport in eastern Russia.

Video of the launch here. This was the second launch for this new constellation of satellites. The rocket flew north from Vostochny, crossing Russia with its lower stages and four strap-on boosters falling in designated drop zones inside Russia. No word if anything landed near habitable areas.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

91 SpaceX
37 China
10 Rocket Lab
9 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 91 to 65.

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Russia: Commercial satellite constellations providing help to the Ukraine are now targets

10:39 pm

Russia this week informed regulators at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) that it now considers all European and American private satellite constellations “legitimate targets to be destroyed” if they provide any help to the Ukraine.

Russia tells ITU that GPS/Galileo/GNSS nav & commercial broadcast sats helping Ukraine militarily should expect interference. Same for EutelsatGroup, OneWeb, Starlink constellations, which Russia has said are ‘legitimate targets to be destroyed.

There is more at the full article, but that is behind a subscription paywall.

Russia’s announcement here is probably in response to Trump’s more bellicose statements recently about Putin and Russia.

It is hard to predict what will happen, especially when you have a dictator like Putin in power where rational thinking can never be relied on and no laws apply. For example, destroying any orbiting satellites in low Earth orbit will create space junk that will threaten ISS, and a situation NOT beneficial to Russia.

I suspect Russia will begin by trying to jam these constellations. Let us hope it does not go farther than that.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Two Russian satellites are maneuvering toward an American military satellite

9:20 am

Two Russian “inspector” satellites, launched together in 2022 but now separated, appear to be maneuvering toward an American military satellite and are about to position themselves to within 30 and 50 miles respectively every four days.

[O]n June 26, 2025, a new object was apparently ejected from the main satellite at a separation speed of just around 10 kilometers per hour, according to an estimate by Jonathan McDowell.

By the end of June 2025, Object C (Full ID — 2022-089C), as the newly released satellite was identified in the US Space Force catalogue, was around 140 kilometers from its Kosmos-2558 “mother vehicle,” according to observations by Marco Langbroek. It was tracked in a 545 by 451-kilometer orbit, with an inclination 97.24 degrees toward the Equator. On July 3, 2025, at around 18:42 UTC, Object C made a sudden orbit-lowering maneuver descending to an altitude of around 435 kilometers, while Kosmos-2558 remained in its original orbit.

According to Nico Janssen, the newly formed orbit would put Object C within 81 kilometers from USA-326, on July 5, 2025, at around 00:54:20 UTC. In the meantime, Kosmos-2558 would pass at a minimum distance of nearly 49 kilometers from USA-326 on the same day, at around 09:40:50, Janssen predicted on the Seesat-L Internet message board on July 4, 2025.

Russia’s anti-satellite technology is based on tests several decades ago whereby it brought a killer satellite close to a target satellite and destroyed both by blowing up the killer satellite. These maneuvers now are not likely aimed at such a test, destroying the American classified military satellite. Instead, Russia likely wants to obtain close-up photography and data collection about it. The maneuvers however do prove once again that Russia’s anti-satellite technology is viable.

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Russia launches Progress freighter to ISS

1:04 pm

Russia today (July 4th in Kazakhstan) successfully launched a new Progress freighter to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan.

The freighter will dock to ISS in two days, bringing with it almost three tons of cargo and more than a half done of hardware and equipment. Expect NASA to order its astronauts to shut the hatch between the American and Russian sections of ISS due its fear that a docking to the Zvezda module could cause a catastrophic failure because of the stress fractures in that module’s hull. That docking will however not be directly to Zvezda, but to the Poisk module that is itself docked to Zvezda.

The lower stages and strap-on boosters crashed inside Kazakhstan in the normal drop zones that Russia has used for decades.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

84 SpaceX
36 China
10 Rocket Lab
8 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 84 to 63.

Russia’s launch pace this year is its lowest pace in decades. At this rate Russia might only get about 15-17 launches off in 2025, a count more comparable to what it did in the very early 1960s. This decline can be directly linked to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. That invasion caused Russia to lose billions in contracts in the international launch market. And it continues to prevent Russia from winning any new international contracts as well. Except for its government launches (which are limited due to government cash shortages), the only other missions Russia flies are those to ISS, and those number about four per year.

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NASA sets another new date for Axiom’s Ax-4 commercial manned mission to ISS

9:21 am

NASA today announced a new launch date of June 25, 2025 for Axiom’s Ax-4 commercial manned mission to ISS carrying a three passengers from India, Poland, and Hungary respectively and commanded by former NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson (now working for Axiom).

As with previous announcements, the information provided was sparse:

NASA, Axiom Space, and SpaceX are targeting 2:31 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, June 25, for launch of the fourth private astronaut mission to the International Space Station, Axiom Mission 4.

The mission will lift off from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The crew will travel to the orbiting laboratory on a new SpaceX Dragon spacecraft after launching on the company’s Falcon 9 rocket. The targeted docking time is approximately 7 a.m. Thursday, June 26. NASA will provide more details and its coverage information shortly.

The launch had previously been delayed several times because NASA and Russia wanted to first assess the repair work on the leaks in the Russian Zvezda module before allowing another docking at the station. No information however has been released so far detailing that assessment. Though there have been indications that the loss of air in ISS was stopped by the repair, neither NASA nor Roscosmos have provided any specific data.

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NASA delays Axiom manned mission again

9:11 am

Without providing any specific details, NASA today announced that it has once again scrubbed the June 22, 2025 launch of Axiom’s Ax-4 manned mission to ISS as it assesses the Russian repairs to the air leaks in the Russian Zvezda module.

The space agency needs additional time to continue evaluating International Space Station operations after recent repair work in the aft (back) most segment of the orbital laboratory’s Zvezda service module. Because of the space station’s interconnected and interdependent systems, NASA wants to ensure the station is ready for additional crew members, and the agency is taking the time necessary to review data.

No new launch date has been set. Because the agency provides so little specific information, we don’t know if the air leak repairs are working, are failing, or have indicated even more serious problems that make any station docking a greater risk. Almost certainly, this latter fear is unfounded and the repairs have succeeded in stopping or slowing the loss of air, but the paucity of information from NASA allows for wild speculations. It would be better if the agency told us what it has so far learned, and exactly why that knowledge requires it to extend the data-gathering time period.

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Russia launches classified military satellite using its Angara-5 rocket

9:50 am

Russia today successfully launched a classified military satellite, its Angara-5 rocket rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeastern Russia.

This was the fifth flight of the Angara-5 rocket, the most powerful version in the Angara family of rockets that Russia first proposed three decades ago to replace its older rockets and has had an extremely slow development history. Its core stage and four strap-on boosters crashed in drop-zones across Russia,

On June 9, 2025, the administration of the Kolpashevo District in the Tomsk Region of Russia declared several communities at risk of debris impact during an Angara-5 launch scheduled around 06:00 Moscow Time on June 19, 2025. The danger area covered the Verkneketsky, Kolpashevsky, Kargasoksky and Parabelsky Districts and was located around 65 kilometers north-west of Lake Tresh. This particular area, located around 2,320 kilometers downrange from Plesetsk, would normally be used as a drop zone for the second stage of an Angara rocket heading to an orbit with an inclination 63.4 degrees toward the Equator.

The rocket’s first stage boosters were expected to fall in the Komi Republic around 850 kilometers downrange, while the third stage would splash down in the Pacific Ocean, east of the Philippines, where the Russian authorities also declared a danger zone.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

76 SpaceX
34 China
8 Rocket Lab
7 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 76 to 56.

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Axiom manned flight to ISS rescheduled; NASA attempts to clarify ISS leak situation

9:26 am

In a NASA update today, it announced a new launch date of June 19, 2025 for Axiom’s fourth manned flight to ISS while also attempting to clarify ISS leak situation that caused this last and more extended delay.

On June 12, NASA and Axiom Space delayed the mission as the agency continued to work with Roscosmos to understand the most recent repair efforts to seal small leaks. The leaks, located in the aft (back) most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module, have been monitored by flight controllers for the past few years.

Following the most-recent repair, pressure in the transfer tunnel has been stable. Previously, pressure in this area would have dropped. This could indicate the small leaks have been sealed. Teams are also considering the stable pressure could be the result of a small amount of air flowing into the transfer tunnel across the hatch seal from the main part of space station. By changing pressure in the transfer tunnel and monitoring over time, teams are evaluating the condition of the transfer tunnel and the hatch seal between the space station and the back of Zvezda.

It appears, though NASA doesn’t say so directly, that the Russians did not wish to change the situation at ISS with another docking — even if it was a docking on the American half of the station — while it was evaluating these leak repairs. It now appears they have gotten enough data to allow NASA to set a new launch date later this week.

If the repairs have managed to stop the leaks this is excellent news. At the same time, it doesn’t reduce the risks of a catastrophic failure of Zvezda, since the existence of these numerous stress fractures in its hull suggest a chronic long term failure that can only worsen with time.

The sudden delay of Axiom’s AX-4 last week also indicates poor coordination between NASA and Roscosmos. It was as if NASA had no idea the repair work was occurring, either because it wasn’t paying attention to what the Russians were doing or because the Russians had kept this work secret until it was completed. In either case, this is not how such a partnership should operate.

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Kazakhstan moves west

9:01 am

Two stories today suggest that Kazakhstan is shifting its politics away from Russia and towards the west, albeit carefully and with an eye to avoid poking the bear that lives so close by.

First, the government’s tourism agency announced plans to develop tourism at its Baikonur spaceport.

Participants discussed infrastructure upgrades, the creation of new travel routes, brand strengthening, investment attraction and partnerships to support long-term development.

According to Kazakh Tourism Сhairman Kairat Sadvakasov, the concept focuses on building a sustainable tourism ecosystem during the periods between rocket launches. The goal is to integrate Baikonur into Kazakhstan’s cultural, educational and scientific agenda.

Both the Soviet and Russian governments have always treated Baikonur as a classified military installation, and forbid such visitation, including vetoing public viewing areas areas. Kazakhstan has likely seen the cash earned by India and U.S. by allowing such spaceport tourism, and wants some for itself. Evidently it now thinks the Russians no longer have the clout to stop it from doing so.

Next, Kazakhstan’s government announced it has signed a deal with SpaceX to introduce Starlink into the country.

The agreement ensures that Starlink will comply with Kazakhstan’s legal and regulatory requirements, including those related to information security and communications. Until now, Starlink operated in the country only on a pilot basis, providing internet access exclusively to schools.

The upcoming launch will allow citizens to legally purchase, register, and use Starlink terminals. The service aims to improve high-speed internet access in remote and hard-to-reach regions, supporting rural schools, healthcare centers, mobile units, and infrastructure sites – particularly in areas where laying fiber-optic networks is not feasible.

This deal also suggests a change in Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia. Starlink is blocked from Russia due to its invasion on the Ukraine. Yet the service is now available to both Kazakhstan and the Ukraine, formerly part of the Soviet Union and directly adjacent to Russia. That Kazakhstan is publicly permitting Starlink in is a clear statement that it wants the same technology as the Ukraine to better protect it from a Russian invasion.

It also suggests a decline in Russia’s influence inside Kazakhstan. Previously if the Russians said jump, the Kazakhstan government would ask, “How high?” Now it appears it is willing to act more independently, and in ways that are not necessarily in Russia’s interests.

One wonders if this shift could go as far as Kazakhstan trying to sell Baikonur as a launch site for other commercial entities, such as from India, China, and Europe. I doubt many would buy the service (Baikonur is not well located compared to other spaceports), but the very offer would signal a major political shift in this part of the world.

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Axiom manned mission delayed further because of new Zvezda leaks on ISS

8:58 am

Figure 3 from September Inspector General report
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, showing Zvezda’s location on ISS.

According to a press update today by NASA, the launch of the commercial Ax-4 manned mission to ISS has been further delayed due to work by the Russians attempting to seal new leaks in the station’s Zvezda module.

NASA and Axiom Space are postponing the launch of Axiom Mission 4 to the International Space Station. As part of an ongoing investigation, NASA is working with Roscosmos to understand a new pressure signature, after the recent post-repair effort in the aft most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module.

Cosmonauts aboard the space station recently performed inspections of the pressurized module’s interior surfaces, sealed some additional areas of interest, and measured the current leak rate. Following this effort, the segment now is holding pressure.

In other words, the Russians had recently detected an increase in leakage in the module, identified several more cracks inside Zvezda, and have been working to seal them.

The graphic above comes from a 2024 NASA inspector general report, which at that time noted a significant increase in the leak rate in 2024 (see the data in the lower right). Since then it has been NASA policy to close the hatch that connects the American and Russian sections of the station whenever anything docks with Zvezda, due to risk that the docking could cause the module to fail entirely.

Zvezda is one of the oldest modules on ISS, built in the late 1980s and launched in 2000. It is believed the leaks are due to stress fractures in its hull due to the many dockings and undockings that have occurred at its aft docking port.

If the NASA press release can be believed, the situation is under control and the repairs have been successful. If so, expect the Axiom mission to be rescheduled shortly.

If not, we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of ISS, five years earlier than planned by bureaucrats in Washington and Moscow.

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Russia launches classified satellite

9:42 am

Russia today successfully placed a classified military satellite into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia.

The Russians provided extensive information about the places where the rocket’s lower stages and strap-on boosters would crash, issuing “warnings for the planned rocket boosters impacts between Yar Sale and Ports Yakha settlements, as well as in Panaevsk and Khadyta-Yakha sites.” These crash zones have been used previously. Though unlike China Russia routinely warns its people about such things, like China it has never had a problem dumping these stages on their head.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

60 SpaceX
30 China
6 Rocket Lab
6 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 60 to 49.

It is entertaining to see that the private American rocket company Rocket Lab is matching Russia launch for launch this year. Once Russia launched dozens of times per year. Now it will do well to achieve one launch per month. Rocket Lab meanwhile is trying to top twenty launches in 2025. It might not meet that number, but it is quite likely to top Russia when the year ends.

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Kazakhstan denies rumors that Russia plans to abandon Baikonur

10:01 am

In response to reports in its local press that Russia was going to pull out of the Baikonur spaceport in the next three years, two decades before its lease expires in 2050, the Kazakhstan government yesterday issued a denial.

Local media in Kazakhstan have reported that Russia could exit the lease between 2026 and 2028 as it pulls back from international space cooperation, including a planned withdrawal from the International Space Station (ISS) as early as 2028.

“The question of early termination of the lease, or transfer of the city of Baikonur to the full control of the Kazakh side, is not being considered at this time,” Kazakhstan’s Aerospace Committee told AFP.

There rumors however could have real merit. Once ISS is retired, the Russians will have little reason to use Baikonur. It is almost certain it will not have launched its own replacement station by then, and Baikonur’s high latitude location will make its use with any other station difficult if not impossible. Moreover, the effort to switch to its Angara rocket favors launches from the Vostochny and Plesetsk spaceports, both of which have launchpads built for that rocket.

Finally, Russia has not had the cash to upgrade the launchpads at Baikonur, so much so that it has often been late paying Kazakhstan its annual $115 million rental fee, delays which at one point caused Kazakhstan to seize the launchpad Russia was upgrading for its proposed new Soyuz-5 rocket.

In fact, Russia might not be able to afford Baikonur at all, based on its present finances and the cost of its stupid war in the Ukraine.

We shall not get clarity on this story for at least a year or so, but stay tuned. Nothing is certain.

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Crash prediction for Venera failed lander now reduced to four hours

8:24 am

Venera reentry prediction
Click for original image.

UPDATE: According to several reports today such as this one, the spacecraft ended up burning up over the Indian Ocean west of Indonesia at 2:24 am (Eastern) on May 10, 2025. It remains unclear whether it can be salvaged in any way.
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The Aerospace Corporation’s prediction for the final uncontrolled re-entry of the Soviet Union’s 1972 failed Venus lander Venera has now been reduced to four hours, centered above the Indian Ocean near Indonesia, as shown on the map to the right, at around 1:29 pm Eastern.

This prediction however has great uncertainty, and will change in the next few hours. However, based on the orbits depicted, there is a good chance the lander will come down over either Europe or Asia.

As it was designed to survive the very thick and very hot atmosphere of Venus, there is also a good chance it will survive its uncontrolled re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Since Russia inherited all the assets of the Soviet Union, it will be responsible for any damage the lander does, as per the Outer Space Treaty.

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Russia signs space agreement with Venezuela

9:23 am

The losers unite! Russia’s state-run press today announced that its government have signed a bi-lateral agreement with Venezuela to work together in space.

Moscow and Caracas have agreed to enhance cooperation in the peaceful use of outer space, including by building a Glonass ground station in Venezuela, according to a bilateral cooperation treaty.

Because of the bankruptcy at both nations, this agreement really doesn’t involve much real space development. All it really does is allow Russia to build a ground station in Venezuela for operating its orbiting Glonass GPS-type constellation, which Russia in turn has been struggling for decades to bring back into full operation after the fall of the Soviet Union.

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Soyuz safely returns three astronauts from ISS

9:42 am

A Russian Soyuz capsule successfully landed in Kazakhstan this morning, bring two Russians and one American back to Earth after a seven month mission to ISS.

The American on board, Don Petit, also celebrated his 70th birthday today, completing his fourth mission in space. According to the article at the link, he did not do well upon landing, requiring significant aid to exit the capsule. The picture released by NASA of him being carried to the medical tent shows him smiling with a thumbs up, but he is clearly unable to walk at this point on his own. That fact by itself is not significant, because many astronauts after missions lasting longer than six months need aid upon return. It does indicate however that this flight is almost certainly Petit’s last one. As that NASA release it notes he “is doing well and in the range of what is expected for him following return to Earth.”

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NASA-Roscosmos barter deal to fly each other astronauts to ISS extended

8:55 am

In announcing its future crew assignments in early April NASA also confirmed that its barter deal with Russia to fly each other astronauts to ISS has been extended to 2027.

NASA announced April 3 that astronaut Chris Williams had been assigned to the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft scheduled to launch to the ISS in November, joining Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergey Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev. The announcement came ahead of the April 8 launch of fellow astronaut Jonny Kim to the ISS on Soyuz MS-27.

The announcement of the Williams flight assignment was the first public indication by NASA that it has extended an agreement with Roscosmos for “integrated crews” on Soyuz and commercial crew flights to the ISS. Under the no-exchange-of-funds barter agreement, NASA astronauts fly on Soyuz spacecraft and Roscosmos cosmonauts fly on commercial crew vehicles to ensure that there is at least one American and one Russian on the station should either Soyuz or commercial crew vehicles be grounded for an extended period.

Russian sources in January 2025 had indicated the agreement had been extended, but this most recent non-announcement is the first confirmation by NASA.

One interesting change in the schedule revealed by this crew announcement is that Russia will be launching less frequently while extending its Soyuz missions. Previously Russia’s missions were six months long, the same length as NASA’s standard ISS mission. Now Russia will only launch every eight months. No explanation was given for this change, which will likely complicate the station’s already complex docking schedule. I suspect two reasons: First the Russian government probably needs to reduce costs, and flying less often serves that purpose. Second, Roscosmos officials probably want to also fly longer missions for research.

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Russia launches three astronauts to ISS

10:57 pm

Russia early on April 8, 2025 successfully launched two Russians and one American to ISS on a six month mission, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan.

They will dock with ISS after only two orbits, three hours after launch.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

40 SpaceX
18 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 40 to 32.

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April 7, 2025 Quick space links

3:28 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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The real underlying battle between Trump and Zelinsky

2:01 pm

The kerfuffle last week between the United States and the Ukraine, instigated by the unprecedented ugly end to the press conference that concluded the visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House, is actually quite understandable if one is willing to consider the perspective of both sides. Unfortunately, I have seen little such analysis anywhere. Instead we get emotional attacks. On the left Trump is a vicious politician who wants to carve the Ukraine up for the benefit of Russia. On the right Zelensky is a corrupt barbarian who simply wants the war to continue forever so that he can steal as much U.S. foreign aid as possible for his own private benefit.

Neither of these conclusions are very helpful. Nor do they provide any insight to what is really going on.

So, what are the different perspectives that caused this confrontation?
» Read more

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