Two Democrats in Congress go after SpaceX for the alleged Russian theft of Starlink terminals

Two of the more radical Democrats in Congress, Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland) and Robert Garcia (D-California), have issued a public letter [pdf] to SpaceX, accusing the company of not having the “appropriate guardrails and policies in place to ensure your technology is neither acquired nor used illegally by Russia.”

The letter then demands SpaceX answer a number of detailed questions, such as the number of thefts SpaceX has detected, what does the company do to prevent such thefts, and how the company is acting to adhere to the present federal sanctions against Russia. It demands answers by March 20, 2024.

SpaceX has made it very clear it is doing what it can to prevent the use of stolen Starlink terminals, not only in the war situation in the Ukraine but elsewhere. It is not in the company’s interest to allow such thefts.

This letter therefore is just another effort by the Democrats to harass Elon Musk, because Musk has also made it clear he personally no longer supports the agenda of today’s Democratic Party. These two politicians likely intend to use whatever answer they get from SpaceX to further attack the company, and even institute sanctions against it.

Welcome to the new America, where politicians can routinely abuse their power to harass any private citizen who disagrees with them.

Air leak in Russia’s half of ISS continues and has increased slightly

Zvezda module of ISS
The Zvezda module, with aft section indicated
where the cracks have been found.

The leak in the Russia half of ISS continues to bleed air from the space station and has even increased slightly in recent months, though both NASA and Roscosmos say the rate of loss is tiny and poses no danger to the station’s inhabitants.

“There is no threat to the crew or the station itself,” [Roscosmos] said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies. Roscosmos’ statement followed comments by Joel Montalbano, NASA’s station project manager, who noted Wednesday that the leak in the Russian segment has increased but emphasized that it remains small and poses no threat to the crew’s safety or vehicle operations.

As indicated by the graphic to the right, the air loss is suspected to come from stress fractures in the Zvezda module, the station’s second oldest and one in which many dockings have occurred over the past two decades. Russia had suspended dockings in this port shortly after the leaks and cracks were detected, but have apparently resumed those dockings recently. One wonders if this new activity is contributing to the increase in loss of air.

Russia launches weather satellite plus eighteen smallsats

Russia yesterday successfully launched a new weather satellite as well as eighteen smallsats, including one for Iran, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Vostochny spaceport in the far east of Russia.

The rocket’s stages crashed in several designated drop zones within Russia and the Arctic Ocean.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

18 SpaceX
9 China
3 Russia

American private enterprise still leads the entire world combined 21 to 18 in successful launches, while SpaceX by itself is now tied with the the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 18 all.

Roscosmos: Russia will do 40 launches in 2024

Yury Borosov, the head of Roscosmos, the agency that controls all of Russia’s aerospace industry, announced today that it intends to complete 40 launches in 2024.

“Over 40 [space launches]. However, plans always remain just plans. Last year, we also planned a large number of launches. But, unfortunately, we could not implement the launch program in full due to some objective circumstances,” the Roscosmos head said.

Roscosmos took efforts last year and keeps taking them this year to ensure the smooth joint operation of its enterprises, Borisov stressed. “This is being done to rule out delays. The main task for this year is to fulfil the entire launch program,” the Roscosmos chief said.

The last time Russia completed 40 launches in a single year was 1994. Since 2015, when SpaceX essentially began full launch operations and began taking away its share of the commercial launch market, Russia has struggled to manage 20 launches a year. Furthermore, since 2022 and its invasion of the Ukraine, it has lost almost all of its remaining international customers. Unless its military has suddenly found money to increase its launch rate significantly, Borosov’s prediction seems absurd. Nor is there any reason to believe Russia’s government has the cash to increase its military launch rate.

Note too that the year is already seven weeks old, and Russia has only launched twice. At that pace it will only launch about 12 times this year.

The Washington swamp suddenly discovers that Russia has anti-satellite capabilities

The fake kerfuffle in the past few days about a so-called new “serious national security threat” from Russia’s space capabilities is simply the Washington swamp suddenly discovering capabilities that Russia has had for decades and has been working to improve repeatedly, discovered suddenly and pushed in our state-run press (the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Guardian, NBC, the Associated Press, ) to help that swamp lobby for passage of the Senate foreign aid bill, that spends $90 billion for the military and for the Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel.

The key facts are highlighted below in this quote from the Washington Post propaganda piece about this story:

Exactly what the new Russia weapon is remains unclear, but the system is a “serious national security threat,” in the words of U.S. Rep. Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. “I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat,” Turner wrote in a statement Wednesday.

In his briefing to reporters Thursday, [White House spokesman John] Kirby would say only that the system is “an antisatellite capability that Russia is developing.” [emphasis mine]

My heart be still. Lordy, the Russians are developing an anti-sat capability! Will wonders never cease.

This is not news. There is nothing here that we haven’t known about the Russian anti-satellite efforts now for decades. Turner and the White House are simply pushing this story now to create a crisis and panic to force the House to approve the Senate bill, even though there is great opposition to it. That opposition sees the bill has spending billions to protect other countries, while doing nothing to protect our own.

Sadly, we are ill-served by our modern press in this manner, which is all-in on this propaganda.

Russia launches Progress freighter to ISS

Russia today (February 15th in Kazakhstan) successfully used its Soyuz-2 rocket to launch a Progress freighter to ISS.

As happens on launches from Kazakstan to ISS, the rocket’s core stage and strap-on boosters crashed within Kazakstan inside planned crash zones.

This was supposed to be the third launch today, but SpaceX’s second launch today, this time of 22 Starlink satellites, was scrubbed due to weather and reschduled 24 hours till tomorrow at Vandenberg. There is still one more launch scheduled today, SpaceX launching Intuitive Machines Nova-C lunar lander at 9:57 pm (Pacific).

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

13 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
2 Russia

American private enterprise still leads the entire world combined 15 to 14 in successful launches, with SpaceX by itself now trailing the rest of the world combined (excluding American companies) 13 to 14.

Despite big bucks from the U.S., the stalemate in the Ukraine continues, with only minor Russian gains

With the passage by the Senate yesterday of a major foreign aid bill that includes $60 billion in aid to the Ukraine war effort, despite strong public opposition and a House Republican leadership unwilling to approve it, it seems that this might be a good time to look at the actual situation on the ground in the Ukraine. Have the front lines changed in any major way since my last update on the Ukraine war in September, 2023? And will that aid make any difference, should House Republicans break their word and approve it in the end?

Based on what has happened in the past six months, the answer to these questions is “Not much”, and “No”. Note the map below, adapted from maps produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), comparing the territory occupied by the Russians in November 2022 with what it presently occupies in February 2024.
» Read more

Ukraine: Russia using Starlink; Musk: No we don’t allow it

Over the weekend Ukrainain officials reiterated the claim from last week that Russia soldiers are using Starlink terminals illegally in occupied territories.

Earlier on Sunday, Ukrainian military intelligence said Russia is using Musk’s satellites to facilitate communications on the battlefield. The intelligence agency posted audio of an exchange between two Russian soldiers from the 83rd Assault Brigade in the Donetsk region, claiming that the Russians were speaking over Starlink.

Ukraine intelligence did not specify how many terminals it believed Russia had or how they might have been obtained. Still, Ukrainian Military Intelligence Spokesperson Andriy Yusov said that the use of Starlink by Russians was becoming “systemic.”

Musk soon responded on X, stating that SpaceX does not sell any of its terminals in Russia, and it immediately blocks use of stolen terminals in Russia once detected.

Musk however was very careful to say nothing about what happens in the occupied territories of the Ukraine where Russia troops operate. In the recent slow gains of territory that the Russians have achieved it could have captured terminals and begun using them, in their correct location. SpaceX would have no way to knowing who the user is.

I expect SpaceX will now take actions to deal with this issue, using information provided by the Ukrainians.

SpaceX denies Russian claim that Starlink terminals sold illegally will work in the Ukraine

Russian media sources have recently claimed that Starlink terminals are being sold illegally to Russians for use in the Ukraine and in Russia near the Ukraine border, where they will supposedly work. SpaceX has now denied that claim.

[A]ccording to a report from Russian media outlet ComNews, vendors have been selling the equipment because it allegedly works near the country’s borders and in Ukraine, including the Russian-occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, along with Crimea.

That’s contrary to the official Starlink map, which shows the internet access restricted in Russian-occupied areas. Still, as evidence, ComNews cites the online pages of several vendors, including one that notes the Starlink dish can be used in the “CBO,” a reference to Russian military operation in Ukraine. Although the Russian military has a ban on using Starlink equipment, some volunteer military troops have been buying it up.

The terminals are supposedly obtained secretly through Dubai. The SpaceX denial on X noted that they would deactivate any unauthorized terminal and that…

Starlink also does not operate in Dubai. Starlink cannot be purchased in Dubai nor does SpaceX ship there. Additionally, Starlink has not authorized any third-party intermediaries, resellers or distributors of any kind to sell Starlink in Dubai.

This story however does raise the long-standing question of how SpaceX can control the use and ownership of its terminals. Once shipped to a legal customer, what is to stop that customer from selling that terminal to anyone who can then ship it and sell it to some third party in a blocked region? SpaceX can probably identify the location of its terminals, and if one is found not to be where it should be, deactivate it. But could smugglers eventually block SpaceX from getting this location data?

Russia completes its first launch of 2024

Russia early today successfully completed its first launch of 2024 by launching a classified military satellite, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its military Plesetsk spaceport in the northeast of Russia.

The launch placed the satellite in a polar orbit. Though this likely means the rocket’s lower stages crashed in very remote areas of the Arctic, either in Russia or over the Arctic Ocean, no word on if they hit the ground near habitable areas.

The 2024 launch race:

11 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
1 India
1 ULA
1 Japan
1 Rocket Lab
1 Russia

Kazakhstan approves Russia use of Baikonur through 2024

Though Russia supposedly has a long term lease for launching rockets from its Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan this week revealed that it has just now approved the Russian plan of launches there for 2024.

The Government of Kazakhstan approves the plan of spacecraft launches for 2024 presented by the Russian side within the framework of the state program of the Russian Federation “Space Activities of Russia”, programs of international cooperation and commercial projects from Baikonur Cosmodrome.

Kazakhstan has increasingly become a bit hard-nosed about Russia’s long term lease. For example, in March seized control of the launchpad Russia hoped to use on its new Soyuz-5 rocket, leaving that rocket with no place to launch. And for the last decade there have been hints from both countries that the deal is souring, with Russia suggesting it will shift launch operations entirely to its new spaceport in Vostochny and Kazakhstan politicians eager to see Russia go.

Russia and NASA agree to extend ISS astronaut exchanges on each other’s spacecraft through 2025

Russia and NASA have agreed to extend their barter deal through 2025, whereby each nation sends astronauts to ISS periodically on the other nation’s rockets and capsules.

This is a barter deal, with no exchange of money. The fundamental idea is to make sure astronauts on board ISS understand how the capsules from each nation operate in case of emergency. Russia had initially resisted signing such a deal after SpaceX began providing NASA its Dragon capsules and Falcon 9 rocket to get astronauts to ISS. It said this was because it did not trust SpaceX’s technology, but I suspect Roscosmos was also hoping to squeeze some cash from NASA as it was no longer being paid to fly U.S. astronauts on its Soyuz rocket and capsule. That attempt was futile. For numerous political reasons there was no way NASA was going to pay Russia anything in this barter deal.

Russia then signed on, and will keep extending this agreement until the day ISS is retired, or it finally launches its own station (something that is becoming increasingly unlikely).

Russia launches military satellite

Russia today successfully placed a classified military satellite into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in the north of Russia.

No other information was released, including where the rocket’s strap-on boosters and core stage crashed inside Russia.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

94 SpaceX
64 China
19 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches 108 to 64, and the entire world combined 108 to 101. SpaceX in turn trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 94 to 101.

Russia launches military satellite

Russia early this morning successfully launched a classified military satellite, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northern Russia.

No word on where the rocket’s strap-on boosters or first stage crashed within Russia.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

92 SpaceX
61 China
18 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches 105 to 61, and the entire world combined 105 to 97. SpaceX by itself now trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 92 to 97.

Russia launches weather satellite

Russia early today successfully launched a new weather satellite, the second in a new constellation, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

The flight path took the rocket north, with its lowers stages crashing in landing zones in Russia.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

91 SpaceX
60 China
17 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches 104 to 60, and the entire world combined 104 to 95. SpaceX now trails the rest of the world combined (excluding American companies) 91 to 95.

December 13, 2023 Quick space links – All Russia today

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

  • Russia planning to lay off several major managers in manned program
  • The article at the link states that this decision suggests Roscosmos is shifting from space exploration and science to doing military and commercial missions. Sadly, these former communists still don’t understand how freedom works, which if allowed to flourish will end up paying for both.

 

  • Russia’s proposed space station is shrinking
  • This story is related to the first above. Rather than having the new station made up of several modules, like ISS, Tiangong-3, and Mir, Roscosmos’ division that builds its manned spacecraft, Energia, is working out a one-module design comparable to the Soviet Union’s Salyut stations from the 1970s.

In other words, the news from Russia today is that it is recognizing it no longer has the capability to build a manned space program. The decision to invade the Ukraine, and the resulting isolation and loss of its international satellite business, has left Roscosmos very short of cash.

Russia & China appear to time their secret space operations to American holidays

According to data gathered by the startup LeoLabs, which attempts to track objects in orbit, both Russia and China appear to time their secret space operations to American holidays, likely in the hope fewer eyes are watching at that moment.

The latest evidence happened on Nov. 23, US Thanksgiving, when Russia’s Cosmos 2570 satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) revealed itself to be a Matryoshka (nesting) doll system — comprising three consecutively smaller birds, performing up-close operations around each other, according to the company. This “spawning” event mimicked the activity of Cosmos 2565, launched on Nov. 30, 2022 and believed to be an electronic reconnaissance satellite, which released a daughter satellite (Cosmos 2566) on Dec. 2, and which, in turn, released its own baby satellite on Dec. 24 (Christmas Eve), according to LeoLabs.

Similarly, on the 25 and 26 of November 2022, LeoLabs said it observed China’s spaceplane, which Beijing calls Test Spacecraft 2, “conduct[ing] rendezvous and proximity operations” that involved a docking maneuver by a satellite it released, Victoria Heath, LeoLabs team lead for communications and marketing, told Breaking Defense. A second docking “likely took place” around Jan. 10, 2023, she said.

In the end it appears this effort only delays observations, at best, but that does give these countries a slight window to do some tests unobserved.

Russia launches Progress to ISS

Russia early this morning successfully launched a Progress freighter to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

The rocket’s core stage, strap-on boosters, and second stage crashed in the standard drop zones the Russians have used since the launch of Sputnik in 1957. It is unclear how close to inhabited areas any of these are.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

87 SpaceX
53 China
16 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches, 99 to 53, and the entire world combined 99 to 85. SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world (excluding other American companies) 87 to 85.

SpaceX however has two launches scheduled for today, one at Vandenberg at 10:04 am (Pacific) and the second at Cape Canaveral at 11 pm (Eastern). The links go to the live streams.

Russia launches military satellite

Russia today successfully placed a classifed military satellite in orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northern Russia.

The satellite is likely a reconnaissance satellite. No word on where the rocket’s core stage and strap-on boosters landed inside Russia, though launches from Plesetsk generally head north over very empty regions and the Arctic, and as the satellite appears to have an orbit with an inclination of 67 degrees that is likely in this case.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

86 SpaceX
53 China
15 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China 98 to 53 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 98 to 84. SpaceX meanwhile maintains its lead over the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 86 to 84.

Two Russian satellites — one thought defunct — have been tracked in rendezvous maneuvers

The American commercial satellite tracking company has over the past two years identified two Russian satellites — one thought defunct — that have rendezvoused and done proximity maneuvers.

Resurs-P3 — a Russian Earth observation satellite — performed a large maneuver in November 2022 after years of inactivity, and approached the Russian military satellite Cosmos-2562, according to a LeoLabs briefing.

The maneuver by Resurs-P3 “placed it in an entirely new orbit shared by Russian assets with non-publicly disclosed payloads,” said the briefing. “Based on the approaches observed by LeoLabs, it’s highly likely that Cosmos-2562 has an electro-optical payload and has collected high-resolution imagery of Resurs-P3.”

This new data further documents the long-term classified Russian effort to develop such satellite maneuvering capability, both to track and inspect its own satellites as well as do the same to the satellites of others. The unstated capability also includes the ability to destroy a satellite also, once rendezvous is achieved.

Russia’s Soyuz-2 rocket launches military satellite

Russia today used its Soyuz-2 rocket to launch a classified military surveillance satellite, lifting off from its Plesetsk spacesport in northern Russia.

A graphic at the link shows the rocket’s flight path crossed over almost all of Russia as it flew east, with its lower stages and fairings crashing on land. Though the drop zones were inside Russia, there are very isolated regions in the high Arctic latitudes, with few inhabited areas.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

76 SpaceX
48 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China 88 to 48 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 88 to 77. SpaceX by itself now trails with the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 76 to 77.

Russian astronauts locate coolant leak on spacewalk

Coolant leak on Nauka radiator

In an almost eight hour spacewalk yesterday, two Russian astronauts were able to locate the source of the coolant leak on a radiator unit connected to the new Nauka module on the Russian half of ISS.

The image to the right, a screen capture from the live stream, shows the leak location, where a small white droplet sits on one of the coolant lines that connect two radiator panels. You can also see darkening on the tubes to either side, likely also caused by the leaking ammonia. To locate it ground controllers opened valves to let coolant into the line while the astronauts watched for changes, and were able to see the coolant come out of this spot.

One astronaut also noted the following during the inspection:

[B]efore noticing the growing deposit of liquid coolant, Kononenko reported seeing a myriad of small holes on the surface of the radiator’s panels. “The holes have very even edges, like they’ve been drilled through,” Kononenko radioed to the flight controllers working in Moscow Mission Control. “There are lots of them. They are spread in a chaotic manner.”

In the past year similar coolant leaks have occurred on both a Progress freighter and a Soyuz manned capsule, with the leak location in almost the exact same spot, suggesting an intentional cause, not a random micrometeorite hit. This coolant leak in Nauka is on equipment that was launched to ISS in 2010. If it was also drilled, whoever did it did so a long time ago, which implies Russia has a long standing saboteur within its operations.

This conclusion however remains wild speculation. In the dozen-plus years since launch, this radiator has been stored on the outside of ISS, where it could easily have been hit by micrometeorites that would cause those holes and this leak.

The plan is to consider some repair operation on future spacewalks. In the 1980s the Russians did something similar, with astronauts doing six spacewalks to replace a section of fuel line that was leaking on its Salyut-7 station. They cut open its hull and installed a second section of line so that the valves could remove leaking section from operations.

Russia announces revised schedule for its lunar unmanned projects

NPO Lavochkin, the Roscosmos division that builds Russia’s lunar landers, has now announced a revised schedule for all of that country’s proposed lunar unmanned projects, following the failure of its Luna-25 lander in August.

The program calls for at least six missions, including orbiters, landers, and a rover, launching from 2027 through the 2030s. However, this quote from the article is the reality:

As often before, the latest strategy relied on the development time frames that had never been demonstrated by NPO Lavochkin in comparable projects in the past three decades.

What is worse is the 100% failure record of Lavochkin’s planetary probes once launched. It takes forever to build anything, and then what it builds and launches doesn’t work.

Not that this absimal record will cost Lavochkin anything. The Russian government and the bureaucracy that controls it does not allow any competition. Instead, like prohibition-era mobsters, divisions like Lavochkin carve up territories that they control, and allow no one else in. For example, Lavochkin owns planetary research while Energia, another division in Roscosmos, controls manned space flight as well as its launch industry. No one else is allowed it enter these markets, which means Lavochkin can fail repeatedly for the next century and nothing will change.

Russian geosynchronous spy satellite making close-up inspections of other commercial satellites

A second Russian “inspector” spy satellite in geosynchronous orbit is being directed to move relatively close to other commercial satellites, close enough to obtain high resolution images.

According to data gathered by California startup Slingshot Aerospace, the satellite known as Luch-5X or Olymp-K-2 [Norad ID 5584] began moving east to west shortly after its launch on March 12 — in what company officials told Breaking Defense on Oct. 6 shows a “pattern of life” that includes making stops nearby non-Russian satellites.

So far it the closest it has gotten to another satellite is about 10 miles, just far enough away so as to avoid triggering any collision concerns but close enough that good cameras will see fine details. It is believed the satellite so far under surveillance is a communications satellite from Eutelsat that covers Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and central Asia, suggesting a link to the wars in the Ukraine and Gaza.

ISS Russians to do spacewalk on October 25 to investigate Nauka coolant leak

Due to the coolant leak that appeared in a back up outside radiator connected to Russia’s Nauka module, NASA and Russia have rearranged their upcoming spacewalk schedule, with two American spacewalks now delayed until after a Russian spacewalk on October 25 that will investigate the leak.

During that spacewalk, [Oleg] Kononenko and [Nikolai] Chub will install a synthetic radar communications system on the Russian segment of the orbiting laboratory and deploy a nanosatellite to test solar sail technology. In addition, they plan to inspect and photograph the backup radiator that leaked on the Nauka multipurpose laboratory module.

The leak itself has stopped, though neither NASA nor Roscosmos have explained why. The leaked material is considered non-toxic, but there appears to be a concern it might get into some “internal systems” and cause problems.

NASA delays two ISS spacewalks as Russian engineers assess now stopped leak on Nauka module

NASA yesterday confirmed it is delaying by at least one week two ISS spacewalks in order to allow more time for Russian engineers to analyze the causes of the coolant leak on Nauka module and assess its short and long term consequences for the station.

The spacewalks were deferred from their original target dates to allow engineers additional time to complete their analysis of the coolant leak, which occurred on Oct. 9 and has now stopped. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted words are the most important takeaway. The leak has stopped leaking, though we have not been told why. The Russians might have closed off the leaking radiator from the system, or maybe the leak stopped on its own for unknown reasons. More information is clearly required.

South Korea is in final negotiations to cancel two Russian launch contracts

As has been expected since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, South Korea is in the process of canceling two Russian launch contracts, with the negotiations apparently now in the final stages.

“The Korea Multipurpose Satellite 6 and the next-generation mid-size satellite Compact Advanced Satellite 500-2, both developed by Korea, were initially scheduled to be launched into space using Russian launch vehicles, but due to the war between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent international sanctions against Russia, there were uncontrollable circumstances that prevented the use of Russian launch vehicles,” the Ministry of Science and ICT said in a statement.

“Since then, Korea has been negotiating with Russia on the terms of termination of the satellite launch contract and it is currently being finalized.”

South Korea has already found a different rocket for the first satellite, scheduled for launch on Arianespace’s Vega-C rocket when it resumes flights in April 2024 (after completing upgrades resulting from a December 2022 launch failure). As for the second satellite, no public decision has yet been announced, though contract bidding has been on-going.

Meanwhile South Korea is accelerating development of its own Nuri rocket, which it has successfully launched two times already.

Russia in turn no longer has any international customers for its rockets. Its invasion of the Ukraine has cost it hundreds of millions of dollars of lost business, all of which will likely not return for decades.

Three astronauts return to Earth safely, completing 371 day mission

One American, Frank Rubio, and two Russians, Sergey Prokopyev and Dmitri Petelin, early today safely returned to Earth in their Russian Soyuz capsule, completing the longest mission yet on ISS, 371 days, and the third longest human mission ever.

The mission was the longest by accident. It was originally supposed to be a standard six month tour, but was extended to a year when the Soyuz capsule they came in developed a leak in its coolant system and had to be replaced.

The previous record for an American in space of 355 days was set by Mark Vande Hei last year. This new year-long mission is only exceeded by two Russian missions on Mir, Valeri Polykov’s 439 day mission in 1994-1995, and Sergei Avdeyev’s 381 day mission in 1998-1999.

The emerging long term ramifications of the Ukraine War

With the war in the Ukraine now in the second half of its second year, with no clear outcome on the horizon, I thought it might be a good time to step back and look at what Russia’s invasion has wrought, not just on Russia and the Ukraine, but on the rest of the world, now and possibly into the long term future.

My goal in this essay is to look at the forest, not the trees, and to do so in very broad strokes, based on my experience as a historian who has taken this approach in all my histories.

First however it is necessary to give a short update on the war itself. In my previous two updates in April and July I concluded that the war was devolving into a stalemate, much like the ugly trench warfare of World War I. Nothing has changed that conclusion in the two months since July, a fact that is starkly illustrated by the two maps below, originally created by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and modified and annotated by me to highlight the most significant take-aways.
» Read more

Russian investigators pin down cause of Luna-25 failure

Though the investigation is not yet complete, reports out of Russia indicate that the cause of the failure of Luna-25 during an engine burn while in orbit around the Moon has been identified.

The article at the link provides the details, which involve problems with two “BIUS-L accelerometers” during the flight, which for reasons not yet understood were switching from the primary to the secondary randomly during the journey to the Moon, apparently because of some failure.

However, ahead of the fateful lunar orbit correction on August 19, both accelerometers worked correctly, but once the maneuver started, one set failed again, while the flight control system never switched to data from the second set. As a result, onboard computers were not receiving data about critical parameters required for properly completing the orbit correction, such as orientation of the spacecraft in space, velocity and altitude.

If confirmed, this crash scenario would likely implicate deficiencies in the development or testing of the flight control system and its software rather than any mechanical problem of the propulsion system, which was implied in the initial statement about the incident. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted sentence says it all. The serious quality control problems that have hampered Russia’s space efforts remain, and in fact appear systemic throughout its entire aerospace industry. In fact, this failure of a planetary probe helps explain the many difficulties Russia has been having in its war in the Ukraine, attributable to these same issues.

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