Tag: Russia

The real underlying battle between Trump and Zelinsky

2:01 pm

The kerfuffle last week between the United States and the Ukraine, instigated by the unprecedented ugly end to the press conference that concluded the visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House, is actually quite understandable if one is willing to consider the perspective of both sides. Unfortunately, I have seen little such analysis anywhere. Instead we get emotional attacks. On the left Trump is a vicious politician who wants to carve the Ukraine up for the benefit of Russia. On the right Zelensky is a corrupt barbarian who simply wants the war to continue forever so that he can steal as much U.S. foreign aid as possible for his own private benefit.

Neither of these conclusions are very helpful. Nor do they provide any insight to what is really going on.

So, what are the different perspectives that caused this confrontation?
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Russia and SpaceX complete launches

9:34 pm

Two more launches today. First, Russia launched a Glonass GPS-type satellite, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northern Russia. The rocket’s core stage, four strap-on boosters and upper stage all landed in planned zones within Russia. Whether they crashed near homes is unknown.

Next SpaceX launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its fifth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Note that though some launch sites indicate China also did a launch this weekend of the solid-fueled Kuaizhou-1A rocket built by the pseudo-company Expace, a translation of this French site indicates the launch was a failure.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

26 SpaceX
9 China
3 Russia
2 Rocket Lab

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Russia successfully launches new Progress freighter to ISS

3:07 pm

Russia today successfully placed a new Progress freighter into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Kazakhstan.

The freighter will dock with ISS on March 2, 2025, docking with the aft port of the Zvezda module, the core module of the Russian half of the station. I guarantee that during that docking the hatch will be closed between the American and Russian segments, as that is now NASA’s policy because of its concern about the stress fractures in Zvezda.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

25 SpaceX
9 China
2 Rocket Lab
2 Russia

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Putin fires head of Roscosmos

8:28 am

Vladimir Putin today fired Yury Borosov, who has run Russia’s space industry as head of Roscosmos for only two and a half years after he replaced Dmitry Rogozin, whom Putin had fired in 2022.

According to this British news report, Borosov was fired due to a “catastrophic reduction in the number of launches, as well as incidents and accidents with serious consequences”. Since 2022, the number of successful Russian launches has dropped from 21 to 19 to 17 (in 2024), and so far in 2025 it has only launched once, a classified military launch yesterday. Though there is no indication that launch was a failure, the timing of Borosov’s firing today suggests something might have gone askew once the payloads reached orbit.

The new Roscosmos head is 39-year-old Dmitry Bakanov, who was previously deputy minister of transport.

It is not likely Bakanov will have any better luck revitalizing Russia’s space industry than Borosov. First, Putin consolidated that industry in 2015 into this single Roscosmos corporation, so there is no competition allowed. Russia under Putin’s rule has increasingly returned to the top-down communist model, and as a result it is increasingly less capable of accomplishing much.

Second, Putin’s idiotic invasion of the Ukraine has done nothing but harm to the nation. And as that war continues to drag on, the harm has only been metastasizing.

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Italian government awards former Ukrainian startup a $1.14 million development loan

10:07 am

A former Ukrainian startup, Kurs Orbital, has won a $1.14 million loan from Italy’s National Agency for Investment Attraction and Business Development (Invitalia) in order to build and sell its module providing rendezvous and docking capabilities for satellites.

Kurs Orbital was founded in 2021 by the former director of Ukraine’s space agency, Volodymyr Usov. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the company relocated to Turin, Italy. The company is currently developing its ARCap system, a rendezvous and proximity operations module that can be integrated with a wide range of vehicles, including satellites, orbital transfer vehicles, and even cargo or crew spacecraft. Possible applications for the technology include satellite life extension missions, in-orbit servicing, and space debris removal.

On 30 December, the company announced that it had secured a €1.1 million soft loan from Italy’s National Agency for Investment Attraction and Business Development (Invitalia). A soft loan provides the borrower with more favourable terms than traditional lenders typically offer. The loan was awarded through the agency’s Smart&Start programme, which focuses on supporting the growth of innovative startups by providing financing of between €100,000 and €1.5 million.

The Kurs rendezvous and docking system was first developed in the Ukraine for the Soviet-era space stations. When the Soviet Union broke up it continued to sell them to Roscosmos, but over time the Putin government increasingly worked to block these deals as it tried (and generally failed) to develop the capabilities within Russia. The Ukrainian companies then began marketing their products, with some success, in the west. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine those companies have either died, or done what Kurs Orbital did, move to the west.

While this story might resemble the actions of the Chinese government as described in my previous post, there is one very fundamental difference. In Italy the law protects the property rights of this company. The Italian government might provide it loans and assistance, like the Chinese, but it does not have the power or right to take it over, at its whim, as the Chinese communists can.

The story also illustrates the foolishness of Russia’s power-hungry policies. It not only has wasted its youth and industry on a useless war, it has driven away companies and technology that formerly gave it capabilities it now lacks.

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Roscosmos buys Earth observation data from private Russian satellite company

11:05 am

According to a report today by Russia’s state-run news agency TASS, Roscosmos has awarded a commercial contract to a private Russian satellite company, dubbed Sputnix, to purchase earth observation data its satellites have already collected.

“In 2024, up to 1.4 billion rubles [around $14.285 million] were allocated in budget funds to conclude forward contracts with private companies on buying out Earth’s remote sensing data obtained from their satellites and created under the federal project ‘Developing the Advanced Space Systems and Services High-Tech Sector.’ The first contract on buying out data has been concluded with the Sputnix Group of Companies,” Roscosmos said in a statement.

The Sputnix Group confirmed to TASS that the contract had been signed.

“Under the contract, the data already loaded into the database were bought out. We hope that next year we will be able to sign a forward contract as part of implementing the roadmap for the ‘Advanced Space Systems and Services’ project,” the company said, emphasizing that cooperation with Roscosmos remained a priority for Sputnix.

Sputnix was founded in 2011, and has so far launched 20 satellites into orbit, though many were short-lived cubesats. While on the surface this company appears real, it is not unlike the pseudo-companies in China. Its contracts appear to be almost all with the Russian government, all its work appears supervised by that government, and at any moment the Russian government can take it over, as it essentially did with the effort of the so-called private rocket startup S7 to launch from the Sea Launch ocean platform.

In other words, this news piece is simply the Russian government’s attempt to convince the world and its own people that there is a competitive and independent private sector in Russia, when in reality it doesn’t exist.

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Russia launches earth resources satellite

9:53 am

Russia today successfully launched the last in a five-satellite constellation of satellites focused on mapping Earth resources, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

The rocket’s core stage and four side boosters fell into frequently-used drop zones in Kazakhstan and Russia.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

134 SpaceX
64 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 117.

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Land-locked Zimbabwe wants a spaceport, and is asking the Russians to help build it

9:47 am

According to the head of Zimbabwe’s space agency, Painos Gweme, the land-locked African country hopes to build its own spaceport and launch its own rocket sometime in the next ten years, and is in negotiations the Russians for aid.

In an interview published on Tuesday, Gweme told TASS that his country has begun negotiations with Russia’s national spaceflight corporation, Roscosmos, about the planned projects, including connecting Zimbabwe to Moscow’s cosmonaut training system. “We expect that with the assistance of our Russian colleagues, we will be able to launch our own rocket into space within the next 10 years,” he said, according to the news agency.

“We hope that our first rocket will be launched from our own cosmodrome. We have already begun working on plans, selecting a location whose natural conditions would be best suited for creating a launch complex,” Gweme added.

Any launches that take place from Zimbabwe will have to cross either South Africa or Mozambique, so expect their to be some objections from those quarters.

I also suspect that if Russia is considering this, it is doing so with the intention of building that Zimbabwe spaceport for its own uses. Zimbabwe certainly doesn’t have the capability to do this, even in ten years. Because of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine in 2022 it was banned from its launch site in French Guiana, operated in partnership with the European Space Agency. Roscosmos might be hunting for another international site to give it more options, as well as some good international publicity.

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Two more launches completed today

9:40 pm

Since the first two launches earlier today, we have seen two more launches successfully completed.

First Russia placed a classified military payload into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia. The fairings and first three stages all crashed inside Russia. No word if they landed near habitable areas, though the regions are generally sparsely inhabited.

Then SpaceX completed its second launch today, placing another 20 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. Of the satellites thirteen were configured for direct-to-cell service. For the second time in the last week the company broadcast did not begin until after liftoff. In both cases the reason might be to avoid revealing any visuals of the rocket’s fairing, suggesting that SpaceX was using something different that it wanted to keep secret.

The first stage completed its twelfth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

Not surprisingly, two of the launches previously scheduled for today have been postponed. The PSLV launch of a European solar telescope was delayed one day due to an issue detected with the payload’s propulsion system, while the first launch in two years of Arianespace’s Vega-C rocket was delayed because of an unspecified “mechanical issue.” At present Arianespace is targeting a launch for tomorrow.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

126 SpaceX
58 China
16 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 145 to 87, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 126 to 106.

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Russia launches radar satellite

3:36 pm

Russia today successfully launched a new radar Earth-observation satellite, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Vostochny spaceport in the far east.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

122 SpaceX
55 China
15 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 141 to 83, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 122 to 102.

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“Toxic smell” at Progress hatch was hypergolic fuel

9:24 am

Figure 3 from September Inspector General report
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, annotated to show Zvezda and Poisk locations.

According to information obtained by Anatoly Zak at RussianSpaceWeb.com, the “toxic smell” detected by Russian astronauts immediately after opening the hatch to unload the newly docked Progress at ISS was actually a small but very dangerous amount of hypergolic fuel left over from the previous Progress freighter.

[T]he working hypothesis was that the ground control failed to perform a routine purging of propellant lines between the station and Progress MS-27 before its undocking. As a result, highly toxic residue of hypergolic propellant remaining in the lines could easily spill into the main cavity of the docking mechanism on Poisk, once Progress MS-27 undocked from the module, an industry source told RussianSpaceWeb.com. After the arrival of Progress MS-29, the interior of the docking mechanism between the space station and the cargo ship was re-pressurized trapping the propellant residue and letting it into the station after opening of the hatches. [emphasis mine]

If true, this incident indicates a shocking level of incompetence, sloppiness, or even malice at Russian mission control. How can mission controllers forget to do a “routine purging” of hypergolic fuel, especially when it is known that this very dangerous fuel — which can dissolve skin if you allow yourself to get in contact with it — can “easily spill” into the docking port where people will travel?

The Russian government pays its top-level engineers very little, even as those engineers watch often bungling managers rake in big bucks through legal deal-making as well as bribery and embezzlement (only rarely caught and punished). These circumstances have been suggested as behind the various suspicious leaks in Soyuz and Progress capsules as well as the new Nauka module. In the case of the Soyuz, it was clearly caused by someone drilling a hole on the ground before launch and then fixing it with a makeshift patch that was certain to fail during the mission in space. Both the Progress and Nauka leaks also suggested a similar cause. The Russians told NASA its investigation discovered who drilled that Soyuz hole, but never revealed what it had found. As for the Progress and Nauka leaks, no investigation results were ever even discussed.

There is something distinctly rotten within Roscosmos, a rottenness that it appears Russia is doing little to fix. More likely it can’t really fix it, because the Putin administration in the late 2000s made Russia’s aerospace industry a remake of the Soviet Union, a single government-run corporation that owns everything and blocks all competition. Since then it has shown a steady decline in its ability to accomplish much and the steady growth of problems such as this.

The sooner Americans no longer have to partner with Russia the better. We must hope that NASA can at least get to 2030 and its planned retirement of ISS without a major failure. This leak occurred within the Poisk docking module that is attached to the larger Zvezda module where air is leaking from the station due to serious stress fractures in its hull. Each docking puts more stress on Zvezda, risking a catastrophic failure, so much so that it is now NASA policy to close the hatch between the American and Russian halves of the station whenever such dockings take place.

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UPDATE: Launch did not occur

3:15 pm

UPDATE: Thanks to my readers (see below), we can now confirm that the launch listed below did not occur as indicated at the link I provided, and is rescheduled for a few days hence. I have therefore removed this launch from Russia’s totals for 2024.

The corrected leaders in the 2024 launch race:

122 SpaceX
55 China
14 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 141 to 82, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 122 to 101.

The original post, minus the launch totals:
————————
Russia yesterday apparently launched a classified military payload, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northwest Russia.

This launch however remains unconfirmed by any other sources. No information about its launch or payload appears available on line, except for the link I provide above. Though I am adding it to Russia’s launch totals, I will remove if if further information proves it did not happen.

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Unloading of new Progress docked to ISS delayed due to “toxic smell”

10:02 pm

The unloading of cargo from the new Progress freighter that docked to ISS on November 23, 2024 halted immediately after hatch opening because of a “toxic smell” detected by the Russian astronauts.

The crew then proceeded with air leak checks in the docking port, but after opening the hatch between Poisk and Progress, it had to be closed immediately due to toxic smell and possible contamination hazard in the form of droplets, according to communications between the US mission control in Houston and the ISS crew in late hours Moscow Time on November 23.

Various systems aboard the ISS were activated to scrub the station’s atmosphere from possible contamination, while the hatch of the Poisk module leading into the pressurized cargo compartment of the Progress M-29 spacecraft remained closed. In particular, the Trace Contaminant Control Sub-assembly, TCCS, was turned on aboard the US Segment. The Russian crew was also reported donning protective equipment and activating an extra air-scrubbing system aboard the Russian Segment, which operated up to a half an hour.

By the end of today mission controllers from both Russian and the U.S. declared the air cleared and normal, and have begun unloading operations.

The cause remains unexplained.

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Russia and SpaceX complete launches

9:16 am

Both Russia and the American company SpaceX successfully completed launches this morning. First, Russia sent a new Progress freighter on its way to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan. The cargo ship is planned to dock with ISS in two days.

Next SpaceX put another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its 20th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

119 SpaceX
53 China
14 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 137 to 80, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 119 to 98.

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NASA reveals that it and Russia disagree about the danger posed by the airleak on ISS

8:54 am

Figure 3 from IG report
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, annotated by me to show Zvezda location.

In a public session yesterday by a NASA commission focused on accessing the safety condition of ISS, officials revealed that the commission and Russia disagree about the root causes behind the airleak and cracks in the docking section of the Zvezda module on the Russian half of ISS, as well as the risk of a catastrophic failure. According to the commission’s head, former astronaut Bob Cabana.

The Russian position is that the most probable cause of the PrK cracks is high cyclic fatigue caused by micro vibrations. NASA believes the PrK cracks are likely multi-causal including pressure and mechanical stress, residual stress, material properties and environmental exposures.

The Russians believe that continued operations are safe, but they can’t prove that to our satisfaction. The U.S. believes that it’s not safe, but we can’t prove that to Russian satisfaction that that’s the case. So while the Russian team continues to search for and seal the leaks, it does not believe catastrophic disintegration of the PrK is realistic and NASA has expressed concerns about structural integrity of the PrK and the possibility of a catastrophic failure.

Because of this disagreement American astronauts now close the hatch between the Russian and American halves of ISS whenever a docking to Zvezda is taking place, and apparently keep that hatch closed until unloading of the docked spacecraft is complete. The Russians in turn only open the hatch to the docking section of Zvezda when they need to load or unload material into the freighter docked there, and coordinate with American astronauts whenever they do so.

Engineers from the two nations continue to discuss the issue, and hope to result their disagreement and come up with a joint plan.

Ultimately, this issue indicates the certain end of ISS in the near future, and adds ugency to the need to get some of those commercial space stations operating in orbit.

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Three launches last night

9:10 am

Last night three different rockets took off from three continents.

First, Russia launched two space weather satellites and 53 cubesats, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Vostochny spaceport in the far east. The main payload were the two Ionosfera-M satellites, designed to study the Earth’s ionosphere in tandem.

The rocket flew north, over Russia, where its lower stages were dropped into planned drop zones. No word if they crashed near habitable ares.

Next, SpaceX launched an unmanned cargo Dragon to ISS, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its fifth flight, landing safefly back at Cape Canaveral. The capsule is on its fifth flight, and successfully docked with ISS this morning.

Finally, Rocket Lab launched a “confidential commercial” payload under a contract designed to launch very fast after contract signing, its Electron rocket lifting off from one of its launchpads in New Zealand.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

108 SpaceX
49 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 126 to 75, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including American companies, 108 to 93. Note too that with these launches the world has exceeded 200 launches in 2024, the second time this has ever been done, with the record of 213 launches set last year. This record will almost certainly be broken sometime this month.

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Russia launches military satellite

9:38 am

Russia today (October 31st in Russia) successfully launched a classified military satellite, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northern Russia.

The flight path took the satellite over the Arctic, where the rocket’s lower stages crashed harmlessly.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

107 SpaceX
49 China
12 Russia
11 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 124 to 73, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including American companies, 107 to 90.

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One unidentified astronaut hospitalized after return to Earth today

9:04 pm

Though NASA has released very little information, including the indentity of the astronaut, one of the four crew who were brought back to Earth early today has ended up in the hospital.

NASA said Friday one its astronauts is in a hospital in Florida for medical observation after a “normal” predawn splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico inside a SpaceX capsule.

The mission’s other three crew members were cleared to return to their home base at Johnson Space Center in Houston after their own medical evaluations, NASA said.

The hospitalized astronaut “is in stable condition and under observation as a precautionary measure,” a NASA spokesperson said in a statement. The agency did not identify the astronaut or provide any more details about their condition, citing medical privacy protections.

That the other three astronauts returned to their home base at Johnson in Houston strongly suggests the hospitalized astronaut is the one Russian, Alexander Grebenkin, Normally Russians head back to Russia relatively quick after landing.

This remains speculation. We will have to wait for more information.

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Russia delays first launch of new Soyuz-5 rocket to 2026

8:52 am

According to Russia’s state-run press, the first launch of its new Soyuz-5 rocket will not occur in 2025 as previously predicted, but has been delayed to 2026.

No reason for the delay was given, but I suspect it is because Russia has still been unable to negotiate a deal with Kazakhstan for the use of the planned launchpad at Baikonur. In 2023 Kazakhstan seized control of the Soyuz-5 launchpad, and has apparently so far refused to agree to a new deal for allowing Russia to use it.

These negotiating delays with Kazakhstan are not the Soyuz-5 rocket’s only issues. Russia first announced the rocket in 2015, with its first launch planned for 2022. Thus, long before Kazakhstan retook its launchpad in 2023 the project was behind schedule. Other plans in 2019 to launch it from the former commercial Sea Launch platform that Russia took over have come to nothing.

Kazakhstan’s unwillingness to negotiate almost certainly stems from Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. It now fears Russia, and is very reluctant to give it more control of Kazakhstan’s assets.

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NASA inspector general: Air leak in Zvezda module on ISS increased significantly in 2024

12:14 pm

Figure 3 from IG report
Figure 3 from IG report, annotated by me to show Zvezda location.

According to a new report [pdf] from NASA’s inspector general, the air leaks in the Russian Zvezda module on ISS increased significantly in 2024, reaching “the highest level of risk in its risk management system,” and more than six times the normal planned leak rate for the station (see the box in the lower corner of the figure above).

[I]n February 2024 NASA identified an increase in the leak rate, and the Agency and Roscosmos continue to assess the risk that the increase poses to the module’s structure. In May and June 2024, ISS Program and Roscosmos officials met to discuss heightened concerns with the increased leak rate. The ISS Program subsequently elevated the Service Module [Zvezda] Transfer Tunnel leak risk to the highest level of risk in its risk management system. According to NASA, Roscosmos is confident they will be able to monitor and close the hatch to the Service Module prior to the leak rate reaching an untenable level. However, NASA and Roscosmos have not reached an agreement on the point at which the leak rate is untenable.

To mitigate potential impacts from the air leaks, NASA and Roscosmos continuously monitor leak rates and close the hatch to the Service Module when access is not required, sealing the module to minimize air loss while isolating the leak. While it is possible for the ISS to function if the hatch is closed permanently, it could impact cargo delivery because there would be one less cargo delivery port. Closing the hatch permanently would also necessitate additional propellent to maintain the Station’s altitude and attitude. Although the root cause of the leak remains unknown, both agencies have narrowed their focus to internal and external welds. As of June 2024, there was no indication of other leaks on the Station.

The transfer tunnel is the section of Zvezda that connects it to ISS. Though the report is very careful not to say anything specific about the cause of the leak, the evidence strongly suggests it is caused by stress fractures in the module’s hull, fractures that indicate a serious and dangerous long term issue. The tunnel however cannot be replaced without replacing Zvezda, and Zvezda cannot be replaced without detaching the entire Russian section from ISS, something that is likely very difficult and maybe impossible to do. And even if it could be replaced, Russia does not have the capability or the money right now to build a replacement.

The report also noted that keeping the station operating through 2030 faces other challenges, including the lack of redundancy for getting cargo and crew to ISS, the increasing difficulty of obtaining spare parts for the station, the long term damage from micrometeoroids and orbital debris, and finally, the unknown commitment of Russia, which at this point has not yet decided whether it will remain a partner after 2028.

All these issues underline the need for the four American private commercial space stations to reach orbit and get operational before 2028.

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New Russian missile explodes during test

9:29 am

According to orbital imagery, it appears that a new Russian missile that has been under development for more than a dozen years but has not yet completed a full test flight, exploded sometime between September 20th and September 21st during a test launch.

Satellite images from Planet Labs of the Sarmat’s Yubileinaya launch silo in Plesetsk posted on Sept. 21, 2024, showed a major crater left by an apparent rocket explosion, along with multiple fires just east of the site. The fires were also confirmed by NASA’s satellite-based Fire Information for Resource Management System, FIRMS, within 24 hours of Sept. 21, 2024. At least four fire engines speeding to the facility were also discernable on satellite images, confirming that these pictures had been taken immediately after the incident on September 21.

The rocket’s development — which claims will be far more capable than its present missiles — appears to have been plagued with problems and delays. It is also a strange missile, in that it is liquid-fueled, something that western militaries abandoned for missiles more than a half century ago. Solid-fueled missiles are simpler and can be stored ready-to-launch for long periods. Fueling and launching a liquid-fueled rocket quickly is not really practical during a wartime emergency.

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Russia’s Angara rocket launches pair of classified military satellites

8:47 am

Russia early today used its Angara-1.2 rocket to launch a pair of classified military satellites, lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northwestern Russia.

The Angara-1.2 is the smallest member of the Angara family of rockets, intended to eventually replace all of Russia’s other rockets. This was that rocket’s third launch, all from Plesetsk. The rocket’s upper stages and fairings fell in Barents Sea.

The leader board in the 2024 launch race remains unchanged.

91 SpaceX
38 China
11 Russia
10 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 106 to 60, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including American companies, 91 to 75.

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Russia launches three astronauts to ISS

9:45 am

Russia this morning successfully launched a new crew to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

With this launch there are now nineteen humans in orbit, a new record. This includes the three Chinese astronauts on China’s Tiangong-3 space station, the four astronauts on the private Polaris Dawn mission, the three astronauts on this Soyuz, and the nine astronauts on ISS (four from a Dragon launch, two from the Starliner launch, and three from a previous Soyuz launch).

The Soyuz capsule will dock with ISS this afternoon.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

89 SpaceX
38 China
10 Rocket Lab
10 Russia

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 104 to 58, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 89 to 73.

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Russia claims its next unmanned Moon mission, Luna-26, is on schedule

9:09 am

Phase I of China/Russian Lunar base roadmap
The original phase I plan of Chinese-Russian lunar
base plan, from June 2021.

According to Russia’s state-run press, its next unmanned Moon mission, Luna-26, is on schedule for a planned launch in 2027, though that press also claims the launch may happen in 2026 instead.

The problem with this claim is that Russia had for years said that this lunar orbiter would launch by 2025. As expected, the mission has not launched on time, as have all of Russia’s 21st century lunar exploration plans. For example, the previous lunar mission, the Luna-25 lunar lander, was originally supposed to land on the Moon in 2021, was not launched until 2023, and ended up crashing on the Moon when the spacecraft did not function properly during a engine burn in lunar orbit.

In the first phase of the so-called China-Russian partnership to explore the Moon, is shown by the 2021 graph to the right, China continues to do all the heavy lifting, and do so pretty much on the schedule predicted. Russian meanwhile continues to do what I predicted back in 2021, get nothing done on time and when launched have problems.

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The continuing stalemate in the Ukraine War

12:32 pm

In the past few months the situation in the war between Russia and the Ukraine has had some significant battlefield events that suggested the situation is becoming unstable. First, Russia began an offensive campaign along the northern border of the Ukraine near the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, pushing back into the same territory it had abandoned during its major retreat and defeats in the fall of 2022.

This offensive, combined with the gains Russia has made in the past few months in eastern Ukraine, suggested that it had completely recovered from those 2022 defeats, and was now moving forward in its effort to conquer the Ukraine in its entirety. At least, that’s how it seemed from a cursory outsider’s view.

Then, last month, the Ukraine launched its own offensive across the border into Russia’s Kursk region, the first time any Russian territory had been invaded since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine in February 2022. That same cursory view suggested that the situation was becoming unstable, and that Russia now faced a serious problem of its own.

To me, the only way to find out how serious these changes are since my last Ukraine War update six months ago, in February 2024, is to do another, and to compare the territorial changes on a map, as I have done every time previously.

Not surprisingly, a look at the map brings clarity to the situation.
» Read more

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Russia launches Progress cargo spacecraft to ISS

9:34 pm

Russia tonight (August 15th in Russia) successfully launched a Progress freight to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan.

Rendezvous and docking with ISS scheduled for August 17, 2024 in the early morning.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

80 SpaceX
33 China
10 Rocket Lab
9 Russia

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 95 to 50, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world combined, including American companies, 80 to 65.

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August 7, 2024 Quick space links

3:49 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

 

 

  • Another relatively boring press release of an image from Europe’s Mars Expresss orbiter

    • I post so few images from Mars Express because Europe releases so few, and when they do, they don’t usually provide enough good information to understand what one is looking at. For example, this release never really tells us the global location of the picture, info that is crucial to understanding it. I could look it up, but the image itself is just not that interesting.

 

 

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Russia releases timeline for its Russian Orbital Station to replace its ISS operations

9:03 am

Tabletop Model of Russian Space Station
A tabletop model of the station unveiled in 2022

Earlier this month Russia released a detailed timeline for the construction of its Russian Orbital Station (ROS) to replace its ISS operations once the older station is retired and de-orbited, with the first station module supposedly launched in 2027 and the station completed by 2033.

Russia is set to launch the future orbital outpost’s first research and energy module in 2027, Roscosmos said. Roscosmos also plans to launch the universal nodal, gateway and baseline modules by 2030 to form the core orbital station together with the research and energy module, it said. “At the second stage, from 2031 to 2033, the station is set to expand by docking two special-purpose modules (TsM1 and TsM2),” Roscosmos said.

The project is estimated at 608.9 billion rubles (about $6.98 billion).

This project has been discussed in Russia since the middle of the last decade, and as usual for Russian government-run space projects, it has limped along with little but powerpoint proposals and small demo models (as shown on the right) for years. The impending end of ISS and its replacement by commercial stations (that will not include any Russian participation) seems to have finally helped get the project started for real.

Don’t expect this above schedule however to meet its target dates. Russia’s track record since the fall of the Soviet Union is that such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years.

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