Tag: Venera

Crash prediction for Venera failed lander now reduced to four hours

8:24 am

Venera reentry prediction
Click for original image.

UPDATE: According to several reports today such as this one, the spacecraft ended up burning up over the Indian Ocean west of Indonesia at 2:24 am (Eastern) on May 10, 2025. It remains unclear whether it can be salvaged in any way.
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The Aerospace Corporation’s prediction for the final uncontrolled re-entry of the Soviet Union’s 1972 failed Venus lander Venera has now been reduced to four hours, centered above the Indian Ocean near Indonesia, as shown on the map to the right, at around 1:29 pm Eastern.

This prediction however has great uncertainty, and will change in the next few hours. However, based on the orbits depicted, there is a good chance the lander will come down over either Europe or Asia.

As it was designed to survive the very thick and very hot atmosphere of Venus, there is also a good chance it will survive its uncontrolled re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Since Russia inherited all the assets of the Soviet Union, it will be responsible for any damage the lander does, as per the Outer Space Treaty.

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Crash prediction for Soviet-era Venus probe narrows

9:36 am

May 9, 2025 morning prediction
Click for original image.

The prediction for when and where a 1972 Soviet-era failed Venus lander will crash back on Earth has now narrowed to an eight hour period on May 10, 2025, centered at 1:54 pm (Eastern).

The map to the right, from the Aerospace Corporation, shows the orbital path of the lander for the Venera lander, covering its last six orbits. Though the center of the prediction would have the lander come down over the Atlantic, that orbit has it crossing parts of South America, all of Europe, much of Asia and India, and Australia.

The lander failed to leave Earth orbit when it was launched in 1972, and has been circling the Earth since. As it was designed to survive the very thick and hot atmosphere of Venus, it is likely to survive re-entry through Earth’s more benign atmosphere.

This prediction will narrow continuously for the rest of the day. I will post an update this evening.

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Failed Soviet-era Venus probe to crash to Earth between 2023-2025

12:59 pm

A failed Soviet-era probe to Venus that never left Earth orbit is now predicted to crash to Earth sometime between 2023-2025.

The Kosmos 482 interplanetary station, which was unsuccessfully sent towards Venus in 1972 by the USSR, may crash land on Earth between 2023 and 2025, astronomer and cosmonautics historian Pavel Shubin told Sputnik. He couldn’t pinpoint the exact location of the future crash site, but noted that it would be between 52 degrees north and 52 degree south latitude.

The astronomer has studied the data on Kosmos 482 orbit as well as its deterioration and detected that it started to degrade faster due to it getting closer to Earth and experiencing increased gravitational pull.

He also expressed confidence that the station would successfully reach the surface since it was adapted for entering the much harsher atmosphere of Venus so is able to endure stress of 300g and 100 atmospheres. The astronomer is anxious to study the station after it lands in order to analyze how prolonged exposure to open space affected its materials.

It is not likely that this probe will land anywhere where it can be recovered, as most of the Earth is ocean. However, the scientist’s hopes are not unreasonable, as it is always worthwhile for future engineering designs to study how the environment of space effects materials over long periods of time.

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