The orbits of the nearest stars orbiting the Milky Way’s central black hole are impossible to predict
The uncertainty of science: Using a computer program developed in 2018 that can predict with accuracy the orbits of more than three interacting objects, scientists have found that the orbits of the 27 nearest stars orbiting the Milky Way’s central black hole, Sagittarius A* (pronounced A-star) are impossible to predict after only a very short time.
“Already after 462 years, we cannot predict the orbits with confidence. That is astonishingly short,” says astronomer Simon Portegies Zwart (Leiden University, the Netherlands). He compares it to our solar system, which is no longer predictable with confidence after 12 million years. “So, the vicinity of the black hole is 30,000 times more chaotic than ours, and we didn’t expect that at all. Of course, the solar system is about 20,000 times smaller, contains millions of times less mass, and has only eight relatively light objects instead of 27 massive ones, but, if you had asked me beforehand, that shouldn’t have mattered so much.”
According to the researchers, the chaos emerges each time in roughly the same way. There are always two or three stars that approach each other closely. This causes a mutual pushing and pulling among the stars. This in turn leads to slightly different stellar orbits. The black hole around which those stars orbit is then slightly pushed away, which in turn is felt by all the stars. In this way, a small interaction between two stars affects all 27 stars in the central cluster. [emphasis mine]
To my mind, the quote by the scientist above should be considered the most absurd statement by a scientist ever spoken, except that nowadays scientists make such idiotic statements all the time. To think that such different conditions wouldn’t produce different results suggests a hubris that is astonishing for a person supposedly trained in the scientific method.
Regardless, these results suggest that acquiring an understanding of the dynamics that created these stars is going to be very difficult, if not impossible. The conditions change so rapidly, and in an unpredictable manner, that any theory proposed will be simply guessing.
The uncertainty of science: Using a computer program developed in 2018 that can predict with accuracy the orbits of more than three interacting objects, scientists have found that the orbits of the 27 nearest stars orbiting the Milky Way’s central black hole, Sagittarius A* (pronounced A-star) are impossible to predict after only a very short time.
“Already after 462 years, we cannot predict the orbits with confidence. That is astonishingly short,” says astronomer Simon Portegies Zwart (Leiden University, the Netherlands). He compares it to our solar system, which is no longer predictable with confidence after 12 million years. “So, the vicinity of the black hole is 30,000 times more chaotic than ours, and we didn’t expect that at all. Of course, the solar system is about 20,000 times smaller, contains millions of times less mass, and has only eight relatively light objects instead of 27 massive ones, but, if you had asked me beforehand, that shouldn’t have mattered so much.”
According to the researchers, the chaos emerges each time in roughly the same way. There are always two or three stars that approach each other closely. This causes a mutual pushing and pulling among the stars. This in turn leads to slightly different stellar orbits. The black hole around which those stars orbit is then slightly pushed away, which in turn is felt by all the stars. In this way, a small interaction between two stars affects all 27 stars in the central cluster. [emphasis mine]
To my mind, the quote by the scientist above should be considered the most absurd statement by a scientist ever spoken, except that nowadays scientists make such idiotic statements all the time. To think that such different conditions wouldn’t produce different results suggests a hubris that is astonishing for a person supposedly trained in the scientific method.
Regardless, these results suggest that acquiring an understanding of the dynamics that created these stars is going to be very difficult, if not impossible. The conditions change so rapidly, and in an unpredictable manner, that any theory proposed will be simply guessing.