The orbits of the nearest stars orbiting the Milky Way’s central black hole are impossible to predict
The uncertainty of science: Using a computer program developed in 2018 that can predict with accuracy the orbits of more than three interacting objects, scientists have found that the orbits of the 27 nearest stars orbiting the Milky Way’s central black hole, Sagittarius A* (pronounced A-star) are impossible to predict after only a very short time.
“Already after 462 years, we cannot predict the orbits with confidence. That is astonishingly short,” says astronomer Simon Portegies Zwart (Leiden University, the Netherlands). He compares it to our solar system, which is no longer predictable with confidence after 12 million years. “So, the vicinity of the black hole is 30,000 times more chaotic than ours, and we didn’t expect that at all. Of course, the solar system is about 20,000 times smaller, contains millions of times less mass, and has only eight relatively light objects instead of 27 massive ones, but, if you had asked me beforehand, that shouldn’t have mattered so much.”
According to the researchers, the chaos emerges each time in roughly the same way. There are always two or three stars that approach each other closely. This causes a mutual pushing and pulling among the stars. This in turn leads to slightly different stellar orbits. The black hole around which those stars orbit is then slightly pushed away, which in turn is felt by all the stars. In this way, a small interaction between two stars affects all 27 stars in the central cluster. [emphasis mine]
To my mind, the quote by the scientist above should be considered the most absurd statement by a scientist ever spoken, except that nowadays scientists make such idiotic statements all the time. To think that such different conditions wouldn’t produce different results suggests a hubris that is astonishing for a person supposedly trained in the scientific method.
Regardless, these results suggest that acquiring an understanding of the dynamics that created these stars is going to be very difficult, if not impossible. The conditions change so rapidly, and in an unpredictable manner, that any theory proposed will be simply guessing.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The uncertainty of science: Using a computer program developed in 2018 that can predict with accuracy the orbits of more than three interacting objects, scientists have found that the orbits of the 27 nearest stars orbiting the Milky Way’s central black hole, Sagittarius A* (pronounced A-star) are impossible to predict after only a very short time.
“Already after 462 years, we cannot predict the orbits with confidence. That is astonishingly short,” says astronomer Simon Portegies Zwart (Leiden University, the Netherlands). He compares it to our solar system, which is no longer predictable with confidence after 12 million years. “So, the vicinity of the black hole is 30,000 times more chaotic than ours, and we didn’t expect that at all. Of course, the solar system is about 20,000 times smaller, contains millions of times less mass, and has only eight relatively light objects instead of 27 massive ones, but, if you had asked me beforehand, that shouldn’t have mattered so much.”
According to the researchers, the chaos emerges each time in roughly the same way. There are always two or three stars that approach each other closely. This causes a mutual pushing and pulling among the stars. This in turn leads to slightly different stellar orbits. The black hole around which those stars orbit is then slightly pushed away, which in turn is felt by all the stars. In this way, a small interaction between two stars affects all 27 stars in the central cluster. [emphasis mine]
To my mind, the quote by the scientist above should be considered the most absurd statement by a scientist ever spoken, except that nowadays scientists make such idiotic statements all the time. To think that such different conditions wouldn’t produce different results suggests a hubris that is astonishing for a person supposedly trained in the scientific method.
Regardless, these results suggest that acquiring an understanding of the dynamics that created these stars is going to be very difficult, if not impossible. The conditions change so rapidly, and in an unpredictable manner, that any theory proposed will be simply guessing.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
My guess is that a couple of stellar mass black holes may be in the mix.
Any gas gets between Scylla and Charybdis, the pull of Sgr A* and the collapsar results in the gas being expelled–rocket wise.
The old “28-Body Problem” strikes again.
One of the key markers of someone worth listening to is the ability to admit that they are wrong. Admitting one is surprised is a form of that. Science constantly requires its adherents to admit mistakes. The same is true of the Christian faith. A Christian has to be constantly turning from his wrongs and back to the Jesus. The scientific method and Christianity are together the big secret behind Western culture’s success. At least the author Zimmerman quotes above is changing his mind. He is learning. That is to be praised.
When I was an undergraduate studying differential equations and analysis, that sort of thing, I noticed how an unusual amount of the pure and applied mathematics being developed by students of, and students of students of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri_Poincar%C3%A9 (who is strongly associated with the study of sensitivity to initial conditions and chaos theory, areas kindred to the science of this Z-post), ground to a halt. The number of young mathematicians who were never heard from again after the Battle of the Somme is a measurable tragedy, along with the approximately million casualties, and millions more who would never be the same. Why the United States wanted a piece of this action less than two years later I’ll never understand.
The sometimes popular notion that war accelerates technology is certainly disproven upon closer examination. Technology and war don’t mix, like gasoline and alcohol don’t mix (i.e. don’t drink and drive).
If we could have an extended period of relative peace, like the world had in the 30 years before 1914, it would certainly be helpful to science. But politicians love war rhetoric, FDR’s War on Ignorance, the great society War on Poverty, then War on Cancer.
Ray Van Dune: Nice one.