Sunspot update: Sunspot activity crashes in September
As it is the start of the month, it is time another monthly sunspot update, in which I provide some context and analysis to NOAA’s most recent update of its monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere.
After several months in which the number of sunspots rose considerably each month, in September the sunspot count crashed, dropping precipitously to levels closer to the various predictions of solar scientists, but still far above what they had all expected at this time of the solar maximum.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
What is really interesting about today’s graph is that, though the sunspot count dropped significantly, it still remained significantly above the prediction, which also said that by now we would almost be at solar maximum. The predicted sunspot count for September was 109, while the actual count was 141. The predicted highest count for solar maximum was 115, so the September number exceeded that by almost 30%, and that was despite September being one of the weaker months so far in this on-going solar maximum.
What will happen next? As I have been saying now for years, no one knows. The Sun is doing what it wants, and we have no have idea why. And while there are certainly some fundamental processes still unknown that could help explain things, it is also certain that simple random and chaotic fluctuations play a part.
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“After several months in which the number of sunspots rose considerably each month, in September the sunspot count crashed, dropping precipitously to levels closer to the various predictions of solar scientists, but still far above what they had all expected at this time of the solar maximum.”
Predictions years before cycle 25 started. But there are on going forecasts, such as “Solar Cycle Progression Updated Prediction (Experimental)”
https://testbed.spaceweather.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression-updated-prediction-experimental
“In 2018-2019, NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) convened an international panel to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 and the date at which solar maximum will occur. The panel solicited for community input and received nearly 50 distinct predictions that were synthesized into a single prediction, with a range of uncertainty. The uncertainty range of the panel prediction, issued in 2019, is shown as the shaded red area in Figure 1.
Within several years, it became clear that this panel prediction was too low, just beyond the estimated range of uncertainty. Though it is still interesting from a scientific standpoint to compare the observed progression with the prediction made before the cycle started, a more reliable forecast is needed to accurately assess the potential for space weather hazards.
An updated forecast for the amplitude and timing of Solar Cycle 25 is shown by the magenta line in Figure 1. “
Reminds me of the Terran-based weather forecasters. I often comment about the daily and weekly weather reports. If, in my job, I used the following vocabulary and phraseology, in meetings, reports, I would not remain employed very long.
Maybe, Perhaps, Chance Of…
I lived in one area where, for several months, the daily forecast used Partly Cloudy and Partly Sunny, back and forth.
Someone very famous, maybe Socrates, perhaps Einstein, stated: The Beginning Of Wisdom Starts By Stating “I Don’t Know.”
We know some things. The Sun is very hot. Sometimes it is hotter. The long-term sunspot patterns will not be determined for many, many years. Right now, on Earth, we believe that there are long, long periods of much colder temperatures. Perhaps 100,000 years of cold, with warming periods of 10-15,000 years. What involvement, what types of back and forth conditions, patterns of the Sun are a part of this will be revealed.
I would love to have a peak into the future, when the Great Cold returns. I imagine a future Comedy Channel, with one weekly show dedicated to laughing at AlGore and his minions stating “The Earth Has A Fever” as the viewers shiver.
BUT, the “climatistas” are CERTAIN that if we give them a few BILLION$ they can tell us how that .01 DEGREE warming in the next two CENTURIES will cause us ALL to perish! The Weather app on my phone gives a ten day “forecast” that can change DRASTICALLY from one HOUR to the NEXT! I do give them credit for being somewhat accurate on what happened YESTERDAY!
I’m wondering if this drop in sunspots is the cause of our temps dropping later this week?
TWO CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Confirmed: Two CMEs are now heading for Earth following consecutive X-flares (X7.1 and X9.1) from active sunspot AR3842. According to NOAA and NASA models, the first will strike Earth on Oct 4th and the second (more potent) will strike on Oct. 6th. The dual impacts could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes, especially on Oct. 6th.
Nice way to end the summer, I think I’ll stay up late/get up early. If the second event is more energetic, traveling faster, it might be another “perfect storm” both occurring at the same time like happened in 2004? The brightest northern lights seen over more of the northern hemisphere then any other storm in this generation. When carbon dioxide levels went above 400 ppm for the first time and it occurred/was measured in the Arctic under the storm.