Sunspot update: Sunspot activity crashes in September
As it is the start of the month, it is time another monthly sunspot update, in which I provide some context and analysis to NOAA’s most recent update of its monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere.
After several months in which the number of sunspots rose considerably each month, in September the sunspot count crashed, dropping precipitously to levels closer to the various predictions of solar scientists, but still far above what they had all expected at this time of the solar maximum.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
What is really interesting about today’s graph is that, though the sunspot count dropped significantly, it still remained significantly above the prediction, which also said that by now we would almost be at solar maximum. The predicted sunspot count for September was 109, while the actual count was 141. The predicted highest count for solar maximum was 115, so the September number exceeded that by almost 30%, and that was despite September being one of the weaker months so far in this on-going solar maximum.
What will happen next? As I have been saying now for years, no one knows. The Sun is doing what it wants, and we have no have idea why. And while there are certainly some fundamental processes still unknown that could help explain things, it is also certain that simple random and chaotic fluctuations play a part.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuses to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
“After several months in which the number of sunspots rose considerably each month, in September the sunspot count crashed, dropping precipitously to levels closer to the various predictions of solar scientists, but still far above what they had all expected at this time of the solar maximum.”
Predictions years before cycle 25 started. But there are on going forecasts, such as “Solar Cycle Progression Updated Prediction (Experimental)”
https://testbed.spaceweather.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression-updated-prediction-experimental
“In 2018-2019, NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) convened an international panel to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 and the date at which solar maximum will occur. The panel solicited for community input and received nearly 50 distinct predictions that were synthesized into a single prediction, with a range of uncertainty. The uncertainty range of the panel prediction, issued in 2019, is shown as the shaded red area in Figure 1.
Within several years, it became clear that this panel prediction was too low, just beyond the estimated range of uncertainty. Though it is still interesting from a scientific standpoint to compare the observed progression with the prediction made before the cycle started, a more reliable forecast is needed to accurately assess the potential for space weather hazards.
An updated forecast for the amplitude and timing of Solar Cycle 25 is shown by the magenta line in Figure 1. “