Scroll down to read this post.

 

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News


Sunspot update: Sunspot activity crashes in September

As it is the start of the month, it is time another monthly sunspot update, in which I provide some context and analysis to NOAA’s most recent update of its monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere.

After several months in which the number of sunspots rose considerably each month, in September the sunspot count crashed, dropping precipitously to levels closer to the various predictions of solar scientists, but still far above what they had all expected at this time of the solar maximum.


September 2024 sunspot activity
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.

What is really interesting about today’s graph is that, though the sunspot count dropped significantly, it still remained significantly above the prediction, which also said that by now we would almost be at solar maximum. The predicted sunspot count for September was 109, while the actual count was 141. The predicted highest count for solar maximum was 115, so the September number exceeded that by almost 30%, and that was despite September being one of the weaker months so far in this on-going solar maximum.

What will happen next? As I have been saying now for years, no one knows. The Sun is doing what it wants, and we have no have idea why. And while there are certainly some fundamental processes still unknown that could help explain things, it is also certain that simple random and chaotic fluctuations play a part.

Readers!

 

Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.

 

In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.

 

Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.

 

You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:

 

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

 

2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
 

3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:

 

4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
 
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652

 

You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.

4 comments

  • gbaikie

    “After several months in which the number of sunspots rose considerably each month, in September the sunspot count crashed, dropping precipitously to levels closer to the various predictions of solar scientists, but still far above what they had all expected at this time of the solar maximum.”

    Predictions years before cycle 25 started. But there are on going forecasts, such as “Solar Cycle Progression Updated Prediction (Experimental)”
    https://testbed.spaceweather.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression-updated-prediction-experimental

    “In 2018-2019, NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environment Service (ISES) convened an international panel to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 and the date at which solar maximum will occur. The panel solicited for community input and received nearly 50 distinct predictions that were synthesized into a single prediction, with a range of uncertainty. The uncertainty range of the panel prediction, issued in 2019, is shown as the shaded red area in Figure 1.

    Within several years, it became clear that this panel prediction was too low, just beyond the estimated range of uncertainty. Though it is still interesting from a scientific standpoint to compare the observed progression with the prediction made before the cycle started, a more reliable forecast is needed to accurately assess the potential for space weather hazards.

    An updated forecast for the amplitude and timing of Solar Cycle 25 is shown by the magenta line in Figure 1. “

  • Ronaldus Magnus

    Reminds me of the Terran-based weather forecasters. I often comment about the daily and weekly weather reports. If, in my job, I used the following vocabulary and phraseology, in meetings, reports, I would not remain employed very long.

    Maybe, Perhaps, Chance Of…

    I lived in one area where, for several months, the daily forecast used Partly Cloudy and Partly Sunny, back and forth.

    Someone very famous, maybe Socrates, perhaps Einstein, stated: The Beginning Of Wisdom Starts By Stating “I Don’t Know.”

    We know some things. The Sun is very hot. Sometimes it is hotter. The long-term sunspot patterns will not be determined for many, many years. Right now, on Earth, we believe that there are long, long periods of much colder temperatures. Perhaps 100,000 years of cold, with warming periods of 10-15,000 years. What involvement, what types of back and forth conditions, patterns of the Sun are a part of this will be revealed.

    I would love to have a peak into the future, when the Great Cold returns. I imagine a future Comedy Channel, with one weekly show dedicated to laughing at AlGore and his minions stating “The Earth Has A Fever” as the viewers shiver.

  • BLSinSC

    BUT, the “climatistas” are CERTAIN that if we give them a few BILLION$ they can tell us how that .01 DEGREE warming in the next two CENTURIES will cause us ALL to perish! The Weather app on my phone gives a ten day “forecast” that can change DRASTICALLY from one HOUR to the NEXT! I do give them credit for being somewhat accurate on what happened YESTERDAY!

    I’m wondering if this drop in sunspots is the cause of our temps dropping later this week?

  • Max

    TWO CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Confirmed: Two CMEs are now heading for Earth following consecutive X-flares (X7.1 and X9.1) from active sunspot AR3842. According to NOAA and NASA models, the first will strike Earth on Oct 4th and the second (more potent) will strike on Oct. 6th. The dual impacts could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with auroras at mid-latitudes, especially on Oct. 6th.

    Nice way to end the summer, I think I’ll stay up late/get up early. If the second event is more energetic, traveling faster, it might be another “perfect storm” both occurring at the same time like happened in 2004? The brightest northern lights seen over more of the northern hemisphere then any other storm in this generation. When carbon dioxide levels went above 400 ppm for the first time and it occurred/was measured in the Arctic under the storm.

Readers: the rules for commenting!

 

No registration is required. I welcome all opinions, even those that strongly criticize my commentary.

 

However, name-calling and obscenities will not be tolerated. First time offenders who are new to the site will be warned. Second time offenders or first time offenders who have been here awhile will be suspended for a week. After that, I will ban you. Period.

 

Note also that first time commenters as well as any comment with more than one link will be placed in moderation for my approval. Be patient, I will get to it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *