Behind The Black – Robert Zimmerman

Miranda, the smallest of Uranus’ spherical moons

March 13, 2026 12:52 pm Robert Zimmerman

Click for original image.

Cool image time! The image to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was created from photographs taken on January 24, 1986 by Voyager-2 as it made its fly-by of the gas giant Uranus. From a later 1996 release:

Miranda, roughly 300 miles in diameter, exhibits varied geologic provinces, seen in this mosaic of clear-filter, narrow-angle images from Jan. 24, 1986. The images were obtained from distances of 18,730 to 25,030 miles; resolution ranges from 1,840 to 2,430 feet. These are among the highest-resolution pictures that Voyager has obtained of any of the new “worlds” it has encountered during its mission.

On Miranda, ridges and valleys of one province are cut off against the boundary of the next province. Probable compressional (pushed-together) folded ridges are seen in curvilinear patterns, as are many extensional (pulled-apart) faults. Some of these show very large scarps, or cliffs, ranging from 1,600 feet to 3 miles in height — that is, higher that the walls of the Grand Canyon on Earth.

This is really the only close look we have of this distant world. The other hemisphere remains a mystery, as it was in darkness when Voyager-2 zipped past. And though some of the individual shots that make up this mosiac are more detailed, they don’t provide that much more information.

Nonetheless, to my uneducated eye Miranda looks like a ball of thick molasses that some giant stirred a bit as gravity forced it to settle into its spherical shape. In this case the molasses is likely a mix of ice and other materials, not yet fully identified. The result is a tiny misshapen planet with some of the roughest topography known in the solar system, including one 12-mile high cliff face (the white streak at the image bottom) thought to be the highest in the solar system.

We don’t yet have a true understanding of the geological processes that formed this strange landscape, nor will we have until we have a lot more data, including a global map of the entire surface. And that won’t come until a spacecraft is sent there to look more closely. Right now no such mission is in the works. No NASA missions have been funded, though several have been proposed. And a Chinese mission was apparently canceled last year.

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The new town of Starbase is canceling its May elections

March 13, 2026 12:15 pm Robert Zimmerman

Boy, Elon Musk sure is a FASCIST! Because no one filed to run against the mayor and two commissioners, the new town of Starbase is now about to cancel its May elections.

During an upcoming meeting, the Starbase City Commission is scheduled to consider an ordinance canceling the May 2, 2026 General Election, as all candidates for mayor and city commissioner are running unopposed.

Under Texas law, local governments may cancel elections when every race on the ballot is uncontested.

That means Starbase’s current leadership will remain in office without voters needing to cast ballots. The city’s inaugural mayor is Robert “Bobby” Peden, a SpaceX executive who serves as Vice President of Texas Test and Launch for the company. Two commissioners serve alongside him: Jordan Buss, a senior director of environmental health and safety at SpaceX, and Lois Wallace, an interim commissioner and Starbase resident.

Expect to see stupid mainstream stories suggesting no one filed because people were afraid to run against these SpaceX managers and thus threaten their job status. “Musk, that evil fascist, clearly threatened to send out hit men against anyone who filed! Opposition to Musk will not be allowed!”

What I think is really happening is twofold. First, no one at SpaceX is really interested in this boring administrative government work. They’d rather build cutting-edge rockets. Note that the two commissioners are not really rocket engineers, with one being the wife of a SpaceX employee and the other doing “environmental health and safety” work, likely related to making sure SpaceX meets government work regulations. The real engineers at SpaceX have better things to do.

Second, there really isn’t that much for these town officials to do anyway. The town was established mostly to ease SpaceX’s own regulatory red tape with the state, and once established the task is largely done. Why waste time running for a position that will only add to your work load, while accomplishing nothing of real substance?

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A day-by-day description of the entire Artemis-2 manned mission

March 13, 2026 10:04 am Robert Zimmerman

NASA today posted a detailed day-by-day description of the entire ten-day Artemis-2 manned mission around the Moon, outlining the tasks planned for the astronauts on each day.

The launch is now targeting April 1, 2026.

The description of their closest approach to the Moon is both interesting and underwhelming.

The Artemis II crew will come their closest to the Moon on flight day 6, while traveling the farthest from Earth. Artemis II could set a record for the farthest anyone has traveled from Earth depending on launch day, breaking the current record – 248,655 miles away – set in 1970 by the Apollo 13 crew. The distance the Artemis II crew will travel depends on their exact launch day and time.

Over the course of the day, the crew will come within 4,000 to 6,000 miles of the lunar surface as they swing around the far side of the Moon – it should look to them about the size of a basketball held at arm’s length. [emphasis mine]

In other words, Orion is not going to get very close, and in fact, the Moon will only be 2 to 3 times bigger than what we see here on Earth. I suspect the best photographs taken will be those showing both the Earth and Moon, both of which will be relatively small.

Overall, I remain highly concerned about this mission. The life support system has never been tested in space before, and they will spend the first day checking it out in Earth orbit. And the return to Earth will involve using a heat shield that did not perform well on the Artemis-1 mission in 2022, losing chunks during re-entry.

They hope a less stressful flight path will mitigate this issue, but then, they need to hit that flight path perfectly on their way back from the Moon. During yesterday’s briefing it was obvious this was a concern to NASA officials.

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China to begin construction of its Mars sample return spacecraft

March 13, 2026 8:13 am Robert Zimmerman

China’s state-run press today announced it is about to begin construction of its Mars sample return spacecraft, Tianwen-3, set for launch in 2028.

Based on the announcement, that date seems very unlikely.

China’s mission to retrieve samples from Mars will advance to the flight model development phase within this year, Liu Jizhong, chief designer of the Tianwen-3 mission, said on Thursday. Building on the preliminary technical research and demonstrations, the mission has achieved breakthroughs in key technologies. The engineering team is now focused on developing prototypes, Liu, also a national legislator, told reporters.

The Mars sample return mission is scheduled for launch around 2028, with the goal of returning no less than 500 grams of Martian samples to Earth by around 2031. [emphasis mine]

They only have two years to get the spacecraft built, and it involves “an orbiter, a returner, a lander, an ascender, and a service module.” While China is basing this mission’s design on its successful Chang’e lunar sample return missions, returning samples from Mars is significantly more challenging. The ascent vehicle will have a much greater gravity to overcome, and doing a robotic rendezvous and docking in orbit around another planet millions of miles from Earth has never even been tried.

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German rocket startup Isar Aerospace wins launch contract from Astroscale

March 13, 2026 8:03 am Robert Zimmerman

Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace has won a launch contract using its Spectrum rocket to launch Astroscale’s ELSA-M space junk removal mission, with a launch now targeting 2028.

The mission involves a $15 million contract Astroscale won from the space agencies of the UK and Europe to de-orbit a defunct OneWeb satellite. This demo mission however has been delayed repeatedly since it was first announced in 2022. Then it had a launch date of 2024. In 2024 that launch date was shifted to 2026. With this new announcement it is delayed again, to 2028.

Isar meanwhile has not yet achieved a successful launch of its Spectrum rocket. The first attempt, in March 2025, failed mere seconds after launch due to a loss of attitude control. Its second attempt is presently scheduled for March 19 from Norway’s Andoya spaceport.

If successful, this launch would be the first from a European spaceport, and the first from one of Europe’s new rocket startups.

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China completes two launches early today

March 13, 2026 7:40 am Robert Zimmerman

China early today resumed launches after a month-long pause, apparently for the Chinese New Year.

First, it completed the 20th launch for the Guowang (Satnet) internet satellite constellation, its Long March 8A rocket lifting off from its coastal Wencheng spaceport.

Though China’s state-run press provided no information on the number of satellites in the payload, all previous launches using the Long March 8A had carried nine satellites. If so, that would mean the constellation now has 159 satellites in orbit, out of a planned 13,000.

Next, China placed two “test satellites” into orbit, its Long March 2D rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China. Its state-run press provided no information about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

30 SpaceX
10 China
3 Rocket Lab
2 Russia

SpaceX continues to lead the entire world combined in total launches, as it did in both ’24 and ’25. Though it has up to now almost doubled the launch pace of everyone else, with China resuming launches that pace will likely end.

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Max Steiner – Casablanca suite

March 12, 2026 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: From the 1942 film Casablanca, still one of the greatest movies ever made.

Hat tip Wayne DeVette.

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Cubesat ultraviolet space telescope achieves first light

March 12, 2026 5:05 pm Robert Zimmerman

Click for original images.

A new low-cost cubesat-sized NASA ultraviolet space telescope, dubbed Sparcs, has achieved first light, successfully taking both near- and far-ultraviolet false-color images of a nearby star.

Those images are to the right, with the top the far-ultraviolet image and the bottom in the near ultraviolet. From the press release:

Roughly the size of a large cereal box, SPARCS will monitor flares and sunspot activity on low-mass stars — objects only 30% to 70% the mass of the Sun. These stars are among the most common in the Milky Way and host the majority of the galaxy’s roughly 50 billion habitable-zone terrestrial planets, which are rocky worlds close enough to their stars for temperatures that could allow liquid water and potentially support life.

The question astronomers will try to answer with this telescope is whether the solar activity on these stars is high enough to prevent life from forming in the star’s habitable zone. Because these stars are dim and small, the habitable zone is quite close to the star, which means solar activity has a higher impact on the planet. We don’t yet have sufficient data to determine the normal activity of such stars. Sparcs will provide a good first survey.

It will also demonstrate the viability of such small low-cost cubesats for this kind of research. If successful expect more such telescopes, some of which are likely to be private, like Blue Skies Space’s Mauve optical telescope already in orbit.

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NASA now targeting an April 1st launch of Artemis-2

March 12, 2026 3:54 pm Robert Zimmerman

At a press briefing today, NASA officials said they are now targeting an April 1, 2026 launch date for the Artemis-2 mission, a ten-day manned mission sending four astronauts around the Moon.

NASA completed the agency’s Artemis II Flight Readiness Review on Thursday, March 12, and polled “go” to proceed toward launch. NASA is targeting Thursday, March 19, to roll the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket and Orion spacecraft to launch pad 39B in advance of a launch attempt Wednesday, April 1, pending close out of remaining open work.

The repair work involved replacing a helium seal that was preventing flow to and from the tanks and testing it to confirm the new seal worked. It also involved replacing batteries as well as some oxygen seals.

NASA officials also stated that they do not plan to do another wet dress rehearsal, that they are satisfied by the testing they did in the assembly building. Instead, they are go for full launch countdown, with the hope they can lift-off with no more fueling issues. They have also determined that if there is a scrub, they will also have several launch opportunities through April 6th.

To underline the risks of this mission, the Orion capsule in which they are sending four astronauts around the Moon has an uncertain heat shield and an untested life support system. To mitigate the shield uncertainties, they must hit a specific flight path through the atmosphere upon return.

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March 12, 2026 Quick space links

March 12, 2026 2:44 pm Robert Zimmerman

As BtB’s stringer Jay is on vacation, here are a few links I spotted that don’t deserve full posts. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

Scientists: Our Sun formed with a bunch of similar stars which migrated out from galaxy’s center
You can read the papers here and here. Lots of uncertainty and assumptions, but intriguing nonetheless.

Celebrating the 100th anniversary of the first liquid-fueled rocket launch by Robert Goddard
A great man who should not be forgotten.

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Real change at the FCC?

March 12, 2026 1:51 pm Robert Zimmerman

Brendan Carr during Breitbart interview

FCC chairman Brendan Carr this week didn’t simply make a public statement yesterday against Amazon, as I reported earlier today. The day earlier, on March 10th, he did an hour-long interview with Breibart News, providing a more complete summary of the FCC’s overall agenda since the change of administrations from Joe Biden to Donald Trump.

You can watch that interview here. To put it mildly, the shift in policy and approach at the FCC is significant, and appears to be generally moving in the right direction.

To understand the context, we need to first review the FCC’s approach during the Biden administration. My regular readers will remember the many stories during that time describing the FCC’s aggressive effort to expand its regulatory power, in many cases in areas completely exceeding its fundamental statutory authority. For example, it proposed new regulations designed to tell satellite companies how and when to de-orbit their satellites. It also wanted to its own bureaucracy for imposing those regulations, and went ahead and created it without any congressional approval. It also under Biden attempted to limit satellite operations that the astronomy community opposed, an action that was once again outside its statute authority.

Overall, the goal of the FCC under Biden was to expand the power of the administrative state, in as many areas as possible. And though there was push back from Congress, as long as a Democrat was president it was clear that this power-grab was going to grow exponentially.

After the 2024 election, however a Democrat was no longer president. Trump quickly moved in 2025 to squash the FCC’s power grab, with a stated public goal to instead streamline FCC regulations and speed license approvals.

Carr’s interview earlier this week essentially gave us an update on that Trump policy, and it appears this new anti-regulatory policy is moving forward, with a goal to eliminate ten regulations for every one regulation added. According to Carr:
» Read more

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A close-up of the dark side of Saturn’s moon Iapetus

March 12, 2026 11:55 am Robert Zimmerman

Click for original image.

Today’s cool image is a double-header! The picture above, cropped to post here, was taken on September 10, 2007 during Cassini’s fly-by of Saturn’s moon Iapetus, taken from approximately 1,000 miles above the surface. It looks at the dark side of this two-toned planet (see yesterday’s cool image). As the moon’s rotation is tidally locked so that one side always faces Saturn, one hemisphere always leads while the other always trails. For some reason still unexplained, the leading hemisphere is covered with an almost pitch-black material, while the trailing hemisphere is bright and very white, its icy surface quite visible.

For context, to the right is a global image of that dark side taken during Cassini’s first fly-by of Iapetus on December 31, 2004. This picture highlights the long ridge that runs along the planet’s dark hemisphere’s equator that was the focus of the close-up image above. From the 2005 press release:

The most unique, and perhaps most remarkable feature discovered on Iapetus in Cassini images is a topographic ridge that coincides almost exactly with the geographic equator. The ridge is conspicuous in the picture as an approximately 12 miles band that extends from the western (left) side of the disc almost to the day/night boundary on the right. On the left horizon, the peak of the ridge reaches at least 8 miles above the surrounding terrain. Along the roughly 800-mile-length over which it can be traced in this picture, it remains almost exactly parallel to the equator within a couple of degrees. The physical origin of the ridge has yet to be explained. It is not yet clear whether the ridge is a mountain belt that has folded upward, or an extensional crack in the surface through which material from inside Iapetus erupted onto the surface and accumulated locally, forming the ridge.

Iapetus itself has a diameter of about 900 miles, so this ridge essentially crosses most of the dark hemisphere.

The 2007 press release did not provide enough information to pinpoint exactly where along that ridge the close-up is located, but no matter. Both images make very clear what we are looking at.

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China’s giant Spacesail constellation seeks more funding

March 12, 2026 9:57 am Robert Zimmerman

Spacesail, one of the largest of China’s planned constellations designed to compete with Starlink, is now seeking more funding to build its full constellation of 10,000 to 14,000 satellites.

Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, or SpaceSail, a satellite communications company developing a massive constellation known as “Qianfan,” disclosed plans to bring in new investors through a capital increase, according to a notice published on the Shanghai United Assets and Equity Exchange.

At present, this Chinese pseudo-company has launched only 119 out of the constellation’s first phase of 648 satellites. While it has gotten Airbus to sign a contract to use its constellation on its airplanes, it also appears to be somewhat cash poor, having only about $150 million on hand (much of it government funding), and is not going to meet its international licensing requirement to get those 648 satellites in orbit by the end of this year.

This new funding round announcement suggests it is in need of capital, and is having trouble getting the Chinese government to cough up the additional funds.

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Have astronomers spotted the collision of two exoplanets around a Sunlike star?

March 12, 2026 9:36 am Robert Zimmerman

Changes in the infrared

Using data from a number of orbiting space telescopes, astronomers think they have detected the collision of two exoplanets, producing debris that for about 200 days variably blocked the light from the system’s star.

The images to the right come from figure 1 of their published paper [pdf], showing changes in the infrared as detected by the WISE space telescope. From the press release:

The star, named Gaia20ehk, was about 11,000 light-years from Earth near the constellation Pupis. It was a stable “main sequence” star, much like our sun, which meant that it should emit steady, predictable light. Yet this star began to flicker wildly. “The star’s light output was nice and flat, but starting in 2016 it had these three dips in brightness. And then, right around 2021, it went completely bonkers,” said Tzanidakis, a doctoral candidate in astronomy at the University of Washington. “I can’t emphasize enough that stars like our sun don’t do that. So when we saw this one, we were like ‘Hello, what’s going on here?’”

The cause of the flickering had nothing to do with the star itself: Huge quantities of rocks and dust — seemingly from out of nowhere — were passing in front of the distant star as the material orbited the system, patchily dimming the light that reached Earth. The likely source of all that debris was even more remarkable: a catastrophic collision between two planets.

…“The infrared light curve was the complete opposite of the visible light,” Tzanidakis said. “As the visible light began to flicker and dim, the infrared light spiked. Which could mean that the material blocking the star is hot — so hot that it’s glowing in the infrared.”

A cataclysmic collision between planets would certainly produce enough heat to explain the infrared energy. What’s more, the right kind of collision could also explain those initial dips in light.

The data suggests the collision occurred at an orbit comparable to that of the Earth’s, and took more than a half a year to largely dissipate.

All of this is a reasonable hypothesis based on the data available. Though there is a lot of uncertainty in this conclusion, the researchers considered other explanations, such as variability in the star itself, and found them less credible.

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FCC chairman blasts Amazon and its Leo satellite constellation

March 12, 2026 9:08 am Robert Zimmerman

FCC logo

Brendan Carr, the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, yesterday harshly criticized Amazon for filing papers opposing SpaceX’s application to place a million new satellites into orbit while failing to meet its own FCC license requirement to get 1,600 Amazon Leo satellites in orbit by July 2026.

Amazon should focus on the fact that it will fall roughly 1,000 satellites short of meeting its upcoming deployment milestone, rather than spending their time and resources filing petitions against companies that are putting thousands of satellites in orbit.

To put it mildly, Carr’s point is well taken. In legally protesting SpaceX’s proposed constellation while failing to launch on time as promised, Amazon is following what appears to be standard Jeff Bezos’ practice, epitomized by his rocket company Blue Origin. When customers begin favoring others because the Bezos company either submits a poor bid or fails to meet schedules, the Bezos companies routinely go to court in an attempt to squelch that better competition.

Carr is demanding Amazon stop this, and focus instead on getting its own job done for once. Carr is also signaling the FCC’s position on both SpaceX and Amazon. It is likely going to reject Amazon’s filing and give its okay to SpaceX’s million-satellite constellation, in one form or another.

Carr is also telling Amazon that it faces some push back for failing to launch the required number of Amazon Leo satellites on time. Though it is extremely unlikely the FCC will cancel Amazon’s Leo license, the FCC might fine it heavily. Or it could impose new limits on the constellation. Carr is also indicating the FCC will treat future Amazon license applications much more stringently.

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NASA’s Van Allen Probe A burns up over the Pacific

March 12, 2026 8:49 am Robert Zimmerman

We didn’t all die! Van Allen Probe A, one of two NASA spacecraft launched in 2012 to study the Van Allen radiation belts that circle the Earth, yesterday burned up harmlessly over the Pacific ocean as expected.

Both Van Allen probes have been defunct since around 2019, when they ran out of fuel. Van Allen Probe B weighed about 1,300 pounds, so some pieces probably reached the ocean. Had it returned over land it did carry the small risk of doing harm.

The orbit of the other probe, Van Allen Probe B, is expected to decay sometime around 2030. Like its twin, it is heavy enough that some parts will survive re-entry. It is therefore a prime target for a demonstration mission proving the technology for removing space junk safely and under control. NASA should put out a request for bids to the many orbital tug companies that now exist to do exactly that, as it is NASA’s responsibility to make sure this spacecraft re-enters the atmosphere safely.

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Firefly launches its Alpha rocket, almost a year after previous launch failure

March 11, 2026 9:11 pm Robert Zimmerman

Firefly today successfully launched its Alpha rocket, almost a year after a launch failure in April 2025.

This launch, from Firefly’s launchpad at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, was the last for this version of Alpha, and was designed as a test flight, both to check out the fixes to correct last year’s failure as well as to prove out some of the technology that will be used on the upgraded Alpha to be used on all future flights.

The 2026 launch race:

30 SpaceX
8 China
3 Rocket Lab
2 Russia
1 ULA
1 Europe (Arianespace)
1 Firefly

SpaceX continues to lead the entire world combined in total launches — as it did in both ’24 and ’25 — and is doing almost twice as many launches as everyone else.

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March 11, 2026 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast

March 11, 2026 8:11 pm Robert Zimmerman

Embedded below the fold in two parts.

To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
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Helen Mirren – On The Good Ship Lollipop

March 11, 2026 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: From the 1980 film, The Fiendish Plot of Dr Fu Manchu.

Hat tip Judd Clark.

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March 11, 2026 Zimmerman/Pratt on Texas podcast

March 11, 2026 4:28 pm Robert Zimmerman

I was on the Pratt on Texas radio show today with Robert Pratt for about an hour. The podcast is available for listening here, or here.

I have also embedded it below the fold. It was a good talk, covering in detail the entire situation with Artemis and SLS, as well as the growing commercial industry in orbit.
» Read more

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Iapetus: Saturn’s ying-yang moon

March 11, 2026 11:55 am Robert Zimmerman

Click for original image.

Cool image time! The image to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was taken on September 10, 2007 by the Saturn orbiter Cassini as it made its first close fly-by of the moon Iapetus, from a distance of about 45,000 miles.

Iapetus, about 912 miles in diameter, is one of the strangest objects in the solar system. As it orbits Saturn, its leading hemisphere is very dark, covered with almost pitch black material, while its trailing hemisphere is very bright. This picture captures a bit of both, with the dark leading hemisphere visible along the right edge.

In many places, the dark material–thought to be composed of nitrogen-bearing organic compounds called cyanides, hydrated minerals and other carbonaceous minerals–appears to coat equator-facing slopes and crater floors. The distribution of this material and variations in the color of the bright material across the trailing hemisphere will be crucial clues to understanding the origin of Iapetus’ peculiar bright-dark dual personality.

There are several theories to explain the planet’s strange ying-yang two-tone coloration. One suggests it is material thrown off by other Saturn moons that Iapetus sweeps up. Other theories suggest the planet’s orbit itself causes the two hemispheres to have different temperatures, allowing material to sublimate off the dark side and to the bright side.

No theory is presently accepted. Nor does any explain the data fully.

Tomorrow I’ll post a most intriguing close-up of Iapetus taken by Cassini during that 2007 fly-by.

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Interstellar comet 3I/Atlas is unusually enriched with windshield wiper fluid

March 11, 2026 10:45 am Robert Zimmerman

Comet 3I/Atlas as seen by Hubble
in November 2025. Click for original.

While interstellar comet 3I/Atlas is remarkably like most comets from our own solar system, scientists have now found new evidence that it spalled off unusual amounts of methanol (CH3OH) — material normally used as windshield washer fluid, carburetor fluid, and cooking fuel — when it made its close fly-by of the Sun in the fall of 2025.

You can read the paper here [pdf] . The research also detected large amounts of prussic acid (HCN). As the comet made its closest pass to the Sun, the numbers increased. From the paper’s abstract:

The CH3OH production rate increased sharply from August through October, including an uptick near the inner edge of the H2 O sublimation zone at r H = 2 au. Compared to comets measured to date at radio wavelengths, the derived CH3 OH/HCN ratios in 3I/ATLAS of 124+30 −34 and 79−14 +11 on September 12 and 15, respectively, are among the most enriched values measured in any comet, surpassed only by anomalous solar system comet C/2016 R2 (PanSTARRS).

Though the numbers are high, they aren’t outside the range of what has been found in comets from our own solar system. Instead, this data suggests — as has all data so far — that Comet 3I/Atlas is a normal comet, but unique in its own way, as are all comets and in fact every object in space.

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Fourteen-year-old NASA satellite about to burn up uncontrolled in the atmosphere

March 11, 2026 9:27 am Robert Zimmerman

Chicken LIttle rules again.

Chicken Little rules again! After fourteen years, the orbit of one of NASA’s two Van Allen Probe satellites is about to decay, causing the 1,323 pound satellite to burn up uncontrolled in the atmosphere.

As of March 9, 2026, the U.S. Space Force predicted that the roughly 1,323-pound spacecraft will re-enter the atmosphere at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with an uncertainty of +/- 24 hours. NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry. The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low — approximately 1 in 4,200.

As today is a very slow news day in space news, a lot of the mainstream press is highlighting this story, with the usual fear-mongering about how it could hit the Earth and cause terrible damage. And while it is certainly true that this satellite appears large enough for some pieces to reach the ground, the chances of those pieces causing any real harm is quite slim. In fact, I think NASA’s estimate of 1 in 4,200 to be far too high.

Mission engineers had initially estimated the orbit would decay in the 2030s, but that estimate was based on a prediction of a weak solar maximum. The Sun however was more active than predicted in the past decade, and that activity caused the Earth’s atmosphere to puff up, which in turn acted to accelerate the satellite’s orbital decay.

This incident once again shows us that there is money to be made in removing defunct satellites from orbit. NASA and ESA have both made it clear each would pay a company to do it. So have some private companies. Some of the orbital tug and robotic servicing companies have here an opportunity they need to grab.

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A nearby red dwarf star has a solar system of four planets, one in the habitable zone

March 11, 2026 9:11 am Robert Zimmerman

According to a new analysis of new data, astronomers now think the nearby red dwarf star GJ 887, only about 11 light years away, not only has a solar system of four planets, one of those planets is is a super-Earth orbiting the star in the habitable zone.

From the abstract:

With the Bayesian analysis, we confirmed a four-planet model, including the two previously known planets at periods of 9.2619 ± 0.0005 d and 21.784 ± 0.004 d, as well as two newly confirmed exoplanets: an Earth-mass planet, with a 4.42490 ± 0.00014 d period and a sub-meter-per-second amplitude, and a super-Earth with a 50.77 ± 0.05 d period located in the habitable zone (HZ). This super-Earth is the second closest planet in the HZ, after Proxima Cen b.

The super-Earth has a mass estimated to be anywhere from two to ten times that of Earth, so if any life could exist on it that life would have to be adapted for an extremely strong gravitational field. The star itself appears to be relatively benign for an M dwarf, having a “low level of magnetic activity”, though it does exhibit some flaring that could pose a threat to the development of life on the planet.

Unfortunately, this system is not aligned in a way to allow transits of these planets across the face of the star, so these conclusions are based on gravitational wobbles of the star analyzed by computer modeling. Lots of uncertainty. The scientists hope that direct observations of the planet by future space telescopes will reduce these uncertainties. At the moment, the proposed privately-funded Lazuli optical orbiting telescope has the best chance of doing this work, but it isn’t expected to launch before the end of the decade. It will have a 3.1 meter primary mirror, larger than Hubble’s 2.4 meter mirror.

It is a so far very slow news day in space.

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On the radio with Robert Pratt of Pratt on Texas

March 10, 2026 8:35 pm Robert Zimmerman

I will be appearing on the Pratt on Texas radio show on March 11, 2026 from 5:00 to 6:00 pm (Central) for a long discussion of the present state of Artemis and NASA, and how it is going to taken over by the private sector in the coming years.

The show will air at 987radio.com. Afterward I will post the links to the podcast for later listening.

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Jefferson Starship – Jane

March 10, 2026 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: Performed live 1981.

Hat tip Gene Shipp.

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March 10, 2026 Quick space links

March 10, 2026 3:06 pm Robert Zimmerman

The Paso Robles city council approves plan to make its airport a spaceport
Don’t bet on any orbital launches from this California city, for years if ever. There are no horizontal rockets presently operational, few are in development, and launching from California’s burdensome regulatory and anti-business government will discourage any that eventually start flying to come here. There are too many far better choices.

Meteorite breaks up over Europe, with some pieces crashing on a German home
It is estimated the asteroid was a few meters in diameter.

NASA inspector general generally approves its commercial manned lunar lander program
You can read the report here [pdf]. While it identifies a number of relatively minor management issues, it admits that relying on private companies to build the lunar lander has controlled cost, kept it low, and is proceeding at reasonable speed. It whines about whether either SpaceX or Blue Origin will be ready for a 2028 manned landing, but recognizes that both are proceeding with all due speed. Note too that this report is out-of-date, as it does not include the recent reshaping of the entire Artemis program.

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Who fired “the shot heard round the world”?

March 10, 2026 2:55 pm Robert Zimmerman

In just a few months we will be celebrating the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. That signing occurred because a little over a year previously a troop of British soldiers went into the heart of Massachusetts to seize weapons and ammunition that the British government did not want Americans to possess, and ended up getting involved in a firefight with the local militia in the town of Lexington, what became known as “the shot heard round the world. That shot started the American Revolution, and eventually forced the members of the Continental Congress to declare their independence from that British government.

As with all history, though that firefight sparked vast changes in politics, history, and culture across the globe and across centuries, the event itself was the act of just one or a few individuals, in a specific moment and place, under very specific circumstances created by those greater movements of politics, history, and culture.

One man fired the gun. A few others fired back. And then a war started.

But who was that man?

In one of the best histories I have ever read, historian David Hackett Fischer attempts to answer this question. His 1994 book, Paul Revere’s Ride, centers the story on Paul Revere and that man’s actions to warn the citizens throughout Concord and Lexington of the British invasion, so that they could be prepared to fight, if necessary.
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Pluto’s cratered glacial terrain

March 10, 2026 12:56 pm Robert Zimmerman

Click for full resolution. For original images go here, here, here, and here.

Click for original image.

Cool image time! The panorama above, created from four New Horizons’ images that were cropped and enhanced to post here, was taken by New Horizons on July 14, 2015 (here, here, here, and here), about 30 minutes before its closest approach of 7,800 miles above Pluto.

I have searched the New Horizons’ press release archive, and as far as I can tell, this sequence of images and the terrain it shows was never highlighted publicly by the science team. For that reason, I am not sure exactly where to place it on the global true-color image of Pluto to the right, released by the science team shortly after that fly-by. I suspect the panorama covers a strip on the eastern limb of the globe, in the darker crater region to the east of Pluto’s giant frozen nitrogen sea. It is also possible this is actually covering the north pole regions, with the raw images as released oriented with north to the right.

Other than these guesses I cannot tell. If anyone has better information please provide it in the comments.

What the panorama does show us is cracked and pitted terrain, thought to be mostly made up of frozen ice mixed with dust and debris with some nitrogen and other materials thrown in. Though in many ways it resembles the Moon, that similarity is only very superficial. For example, the polygon shapes near the picture’s center suggest ice floes or glaciers, though there is no underground liquid ocean on which they could float.

This is a very alien world. And it is likely even more alien than the few pictures obtained during that New Horizons’ fly-by have suggested. After all, we only saw in high resolution one hemisphere. Who knows what’s really on the planet’s other side?

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SpaceX now targeting early April for next Starship/Superheavy test flight

March 10, 2026 9:40 am Robert Zimmerman

Based on a tweet posted by Elon Musk on March 7, 2026, SpaceX now targeting early April for next and 12th Starship/Superheavy test orbital flight.

According to this update at nasaspaceflight.com, the Superheavy booster, the 19th prototype and the first version 3 booster, is now on the launchpad for final checks.

On March 8, Booster 19 left Mega Bay 1 and rolled down Highway 4 towards the launch site and Pad 2. This is the start of pad commissioning and booster engine testing for Block 3.

Booster 19 is mounted on Pad 2 to conduct multiple tests over the coming days. This will likely include ambient pressure testing, tanking tests with Liquid Oxygen (LOX) and Liquid Methane (LCH4), spin primes, and eventually a static fire, maybe even a couple of static fires. These tests are not only to help test the booster but also to test all of the pad systems.

While crews have run operations with the Pad 2 tank farm many times, they have never loaded an actual booster with propellant. With a booster finally on the pad, this will help in the final commissioning process.

For these initial pad and booster check-outs, #19 does not have all 33 engines installed. It appears the company wants to test the launchpad fueling system first, with the minimum number of engines needed.

Meanwhile, the Starship prototype that will fly, #39 in the series, is in the assembly building after completing its own series of tanking and launchpad tests.

I want to highlight two numbers — 19 and 39 — in order to illustrate how SpaceX does things versus NASA. Not only has SpaceX already completed eleven test flights of Starship/Superheavy, it has tested or flown 19 and 39 prototypes of each, in one manner or another. The company has a very rich history of hardware and testing as it ramps up towards operational flights. This practically guarantees that those operational flights will not only occur relatively soon, they will be relatively safe and robust.

This was all done in less than a decade, though most of the testing of those prototypes has occurred in the last six years.

NASA meanwhile began work on SLS about fifteen years ago, and has built two rockets total, and so far flown only one. Though the agency did a lot of tests of pieces of the rocket, it flew only one test launch, in 2022. SLS’s design is so cumbersome and expensive, the agency could not afford to fly it multiple times. Thus, much of its testing was done on computer screens, in simulations.

Which rocket would you want to fly on when both are operational?

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Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.