Author: Robert Zimmerman

Local billionaire landowner renews his oppposition to the Sutherland spaceport

10:58 am

Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea
Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea.

An effort by the proposed Sutherland spaceport on the north coast of Scotland to place a tracking dish on a nearby peak — where other telecommunication dishes are already installed — is now being fought by local billionaire landowner Anders Holch Povlsen, who had previously tried and failed to stop construction of the spaceport entirely.

The spaceport’s main customer, the rocket startup Orbex, has already experienced endless red tape from the United Kingdom’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). It applied for a launch license in February 2022, and almost two-and-a-half years later still has not gotten an approval. It had previously announced a first launch that year, and has been stymied since, not only by the CAA but by local authorities who have demanded it make many changes to its construction plans.

Povlsen, who has himself invested in the competing Saxavord spaceport on the Shetland Islands, has repeatedly acted to block Sutherland, so far with no success. This new suit is especially absurd — claiming the new dish would harm the local landscape — which is why the local councils appear ready to reject it.
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To guarantee no capsule debris hits inhabited areas, SpaceX to move its manned splashdowns to Pacific

10:32 am

As part of the changes SpaceX is instituting to the de-orbit procedures of its Dragon capsules in order to end any chance parts of the service module will fall in inhabited areas (as has happened several times in the past few years) the company will be shifting all manned splashdowns to the Pacific Ocean.

Repeated issues with large chunks of debris from Dragon — “trunks” where the fuel and electrical supplies are held — have repeatedly crashed down in areas ranging from Australia to North Carolina. One measure to fix that will be tasking future spacecraft after Crew-9, perhaps as soon as Crew-10, to splash down on the U.S. Pacific coast, SpaceX said during a press conference today (July 26).

“What we’ll do is we’ll implement a software change to complete the deorbit burn before jettisoning the trunk, like we did with Dragon-1, and then the trunk will intentionally land […] in an unpopulated area of the ocean,” Sarah Walker, SpaceX’s director of Dragon mission management, said in the livestreamed briefing. “So to make this change possible, we’ll move a Dragon recovery vessel to the Pacific sometime next year.”

Crew-9 is now scheduled to launch to ISS on August 18th on a six month mission, landing sometime in February 2025. Crew-10 would launch about that time and land sometime in August, 2025.

Side note: The announcement yesterday of August 18th for the launch of the next Dragon manned mission suggests NASA is now confident it can determine a date prior to that for returning Starliner. This reinforces the fact that the astronauts and Starliner are not “stranded” on the station, and any news source that states or even implies such a thing indicates it is a place where you are likely getting junk news, on all its stories.

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SpaceX’s Falcon 9 resumes launches, successfully launching 23 Starlink satellites

11:44 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully resumed launches of its Falcon 9 rocket after a July 11, 2024 launch was a failure due to an engine leak in the upper stage. The rocket lifted off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, successfully placing 23 Starlink satellites into orbit.

The first stage completed its seventeenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

72 SpaceX
31 China
8 Rocket Lab
8 Russia

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 84 to 47, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world combined, including American companies, 72 to 59.

SpaceX has additional launches scheduled for tomorrow and the next day, so these numbers are only temporary.

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July 26, 2024 Quick space links

3:13 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

 

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Report: Law enforcement officers nationwide no longer trust the FBI, and will not work with it

12:51 pm

Kamala Harris joking about killing Donald Trump, Mike Pence, and Jeff Sessions
Kamala Harris as she enthusiaticallly joked on television
about killing Donald Trump, Mike Pence, and Jeff Sessions

A just released scathing and horrifying report put together by the National Alliance of Retired and Active Duty FBI Special Agents and Analysts has found extensive nationwide evidence that local law enforcement officers so distrust the FBI they will no longer cooperate with it in any way.

You can read the report here. It came to the following ten conclusions:

  • Local law enforcement officers do not trust the FBI
  • Local law enforcement no longer share actionable, substantive information with the FBI
  • FBI National Academy graduates are troubled by bias
  • Routinely poor management and ineffective leadership found in FBI-led task forces
  • The FBI is isolated and unresponsive to local law enforcement
  • Local law enforcement officers feel disrespected by FBI special agents
  • Today’s tone-deaf FBI disregards the value of retired FBI special agents
  • The new generation of FBI special agents are seen as “completely worthless”
  • FBI management is too transitory and obsessed with self-promotion
  • The FBI’s cult of narcissism begins at the FBI Academy

For conservatives who have been paying attention for the past decade, none of these conclusions are a surprise. The FBI, as well as the CIA, ATF, the Secret Service as well as the entire intelligence and security community in the federal government have not only demonstrated obvious incompetence in their basic jobs since Obama was president, these agencies have clearly become partisan weaponized tools for the Democratic Party.
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Perseverance finds intriguing geology, and the press goes crazy

9:58 am

Intriguing Martian rock
Click for original image.

A press release from JPL yesterday described an intriguing rock (image to the right) that the Mars rover Perseverance science team has recently been studying, and in doing so repeatedly hinted that its features suggest the possibility of past Martian life. From its first two paragraphs:

A vein-filled rock is catching the eye of the science team of NASA’s Perseverance rover. Nicknamed “Cheyava Falls” by the team, the arrowhead-shaped rock contains fascinating traits that may bear on the question of whether Mars was home to microscopic life in the distant past.

Analysis by instruments aboard the rover indicates the rock possesses qualities that fit the definition of a possible indicator of ancient life. The rock exhibits chemical signatures and structures that could possibly have been formed by life billions of years ago when the area being explored by the rover contained running water. Other explanations for the observed features are being considered by the science team, and future research steps will be required to determine whether ancient life is a valid explanation.

Not surprisingly the press immediately went crazy. Here are just a few headlines:
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Do Kepler’s sunspot drawings tell us the length of the solar cycle in the 17th century?

9:19 am

Kepler's first sunspot drawing
Click for original image.

The uncertainty of science: Scientists have done a new analysis of Johannes Kepler’s three drawings of sunspots on the Sun in 1607, and have concluded that the solar cycle at that time — just before the start of the Maunder grand minimum of no sunspots for decades — was about the same length, 11 years, that has been measured since the 1700s onward.

You can read the peer-reviewed paper here. The drawing to the right is figure 1 in that paper, and shows Kepler’s first drawing of the Sun’s surface showing sunspots. From the paper’s conclusion:

In combination with sunspot drawings in the 1610s–1620s, it is reasonable to suppose that the duration of the Solar Cycle −13 was between 11 and 14 yr. This does not support Miyahara et al.’s claim of anomalously long/short durations for Solar Cycle −13 (16 yr) and Solar Cycle −14 (5 yr) but supports Usoskin et al.’s reconstruction of regular durations of Solar Cycle −13 (11 yr) and Solar Cycle −14 (14 yr).

In other words, the solar cycle prior to the sixty-plus yearlong Maunder Minimum, when few to none sunpots occurred, was about eleven years long, like now, and not five years or sixteen years long, as some scientists have theorized. Knowing the length and nature of the cycle before the Maunder grand minimum would help scientists predict when the next minimum might occur. It would also help them better document the Sun’s long term behavior.

There is however great uncertainty in this result, since there really is so little data about sunspots prior to the Maunder Minimum. Before Galileo’s first use of the telescope in astronomy in 1609, such observations like Kepler’s were rare and very difficult. The conclusions here are intriguing, but hardly convincing.

In fact, it is really impossible to get a defiinitive answer from this data. We really won’t know how the Sun behaves just prior to a grand minimum until it happens again and scientists can use modern technology to observe it.

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SpaceX announces completion of investigation of July 11 Falcon 9 second stage failure

5:45 pm

SpaceX today issued an update outlining completion of its investigation of July 11 Falcon 9 second stage failure, noting that it had located the problem and instituted fixes throughout its fleet.

It turns out the upper stage was not destroyed when it restarted its engine.

During the first burn of Falcon 9’s second stage engine, a liquid oxygen leak developed within the insulation around the upper stage engine. The cause of the leak was identified as a crack in a sense line for a pressure sensor attached to the vehicle’s oxygen system. This line cracked due to fatigue caused by high loading from engine vibration and looseness in the clamp that normally constrains the line. Despite the leak, the second stage engine continued to operate through the duration of its first burn, and completed its engine shutdown, where it entered the coast phase of the mission in the intended elliptical parking orbit.

A second burn of the upper stage engine was planned to circularize the orbit ahead of satellite deployment. However, the liquid oxygen leak on the upper stage led to the excessive cooling of engine components, most importantly those associated with delivery of ignition fluid to the engine. As a result, the engine experienced a hard start rather than a controlled burn, which damaged the engine hardware and caused the upper stage to subsequently lose attitude control. Even so, the second stage continued to operate as designed, deploying the Starlink satellites and successfully completing stage passivation, a process of venting down stored energy on the stage, which occurs at the conclusion of every Falcon mission.

For near term upcoming flights, they have removed the sense line and the sensor, stating that neither is essential and can be covered by other sensors.

This SpaceX update implies that the rocket can now resume launches, but I have yet to see a confirmation from the FAA. Since July 19th SpaceX has scheduled launches to begin the next day, and with each day shifted that schedule back 24 hours. Right now it has a Starlink satellite launch scheduled for tomorrow at 9:21 pm from Florida. We will have to wait to see if it gets an official okay from the FAA before then.

UPDATE: The FAA has approved SpaceX to resume launches. Apparently it accepted SpaceX’s request that because no public safety issues remain, it can allow launches to resume even though the FAA has not yet retyped SpaceX’s report to make it sound as if the FAA has concluded its own investigation.

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July 25, 2024 Quick space links

4:03 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

 

 

 

 

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Zebra layering in the Martian high southern latitudes

1:39 pm

Zebra layering in the Martian high southern latitudes
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on May 16, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The science team labeled it simple as a “terrain sample,” which usually indicates a picture not taken as part of any specific request or research project, but to fill a gap in the photography schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature.

When such pictures are necessary, the camera team tries to target the most interesting features that will be below MRO during the required time period. In this case they aimed for a north-facing slope, about 340 feet high, made up of a series of terraced layers, distinguished by the sharply contrasting bright flat benches and very dark cliff-faces.

While the cliffs are dark partly because of the sun is coming from the west, putting them in shadow, it is not entirely the cause. Note how the cliffs on the west side of the mound are also dark, suggesting that the darkness is a fundamental feature of the ground itself.
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Webb: Carbon monoxide detected on surface of Uranus’s moon Ariel suggests an underground ocean

12:04 pm

The best image of Ariel, as seen by Voyager-2, January 24, 1986
Voyager-2’s best image of Ariel during the
January 24, 1986 fly-by. Click for original.

By doing infrared spectroscopy using the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have detected carbon monoxide (CO) and confirmed extensive carbon dioxide (CO2) deposits on the surface of Uranus’s moon Ariel, with the carbon monoxide suggesting the moon has an underground ocean.

Using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to collect chemical spectra of the moon and then comparing them with spectra of simulated chemical mixtures in the lab, a research team led by Richard Cartwright from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland, found that Ariel has some of the most carbon dioxide-rich deposits in the solar system, adding up to an estimated 10 millimeters (0.4 inches) or more thickness on the moon’s trailing hemisphere. Among those deposits was another puzzling finding: the first clear signals of carbon monoxide.

“It just shouldn’t be there. You’ve got to get down to 30 kelvins [minus 405 degrees Fahrenheit] before carbon monoxide’s stable,” Cartwright said. Ariel’s surface temperature, meanwhile, averages around 65 F warmer. “The carbon monoxide would have to be actively replenished, no question.”

You can read the peer-reviewed paper here [pdf]. Though there are a number of ways in which the carbon monoxide can be replenished, the scientists think it is coming from an underground ocean. From the paper’s abstract:

The evidence for thick CO 2 ice deposits and the possible presence of carbonates on both hemispheres suggests that some carbon oxides could be sourced from Ariel’s interior, with their surface distributions modified by charged particle bombardment, sublimation, and seasonal migration of CO and CO 2 from high to low latitudes.

This theory however has not been confirmed, and the scientists admit it will take a probe making close observations of Ariel to find out for sure.

Hat tip to stringer Jay for this story.

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Sierra Space successfully completes 2nd test-to-failure of a full scale LIFE inflatable module

11:40 am

Sierra Space's family of planned LIFE modules
Sierra Space’s family of planned LIFE modules. Click for original

Sierra Space today announced it has completed a second successful test-to-failure of a full scale version of its LIFE inflatable module, intended for use not only on Blue Origin’s proposed Orbital Reef space station, but also available for purchase by other space station.

The latest test by the numbers:

  • Company’s second Ultimate Burst Pressure test of a full-size, inflatable space station structure occurred on June 18
  • Test unit stood over 20’ tall and was comparable in size to an average family home
  • The article was 300 m³ in volume, or 1/3rd the volume of the International Space Station
  • Test results exceeded NASA’s recommended x4 safety levels by 22%
  • Two 4-ft x 4-ft steel blanking plates were integrated into the highest loaded cylinder section of the article; both were 50 lbs. lighter than the ones used in the first full-scale test and accommodate larger windows

The test article in the company’s historic first full-scale burst test last December peaked at 77 psi, which well exceeded (+27%) NASA’s recommended level of 60.8 psi (maximum operating pressure of 15.2 psi multiplied by a safety factor of four). This most recent test in June showed similar results – within five percent of the pressure loading of December’s test article – with this one reaching 74 psi, exceeding NASA’s 4x safety factor by 22 percent. These back-to-back test results accelerate Sierra Space’s path to flight certification, verifying scalability for 10 cubic-meter and up to 1,400 cubic-meter structures based on the company’s current softgoods inflatable architecture. Sierra Space is currently gearing up for a first test of its 500 cubic-meter space station technology next year.

Video of this test, dramatically edited with its own music soundtrack, can be seen at the link.

It is intriguing that the only developments related to Orbital Reef appear to come from Sierra Space. From Blue Origin — supposedly the lead company in that project — we hear almost nothing. Though Sierra Space has said the partnership is still solid, it has also made it clear it is building the LIFE module not just for Orbital Reef. I think it is hedging its bets, anticipating that Orbital Reef will be another Blue Origin dud, and wants to market itself to others.

Hat tip to stringer Jay for this story.

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NASA/Boeing: Cause of Starliner thruster failure identified

10:21 am

According to NASA and Boeing officials, ground static fire engine tests have now identified the likely cause of the thruster failures on the Starliner capsule during its docking to ISS in early June, and puts them in a position next week to determine a return date for the capsule and its two astronauts.

It appears the problem is related to teflon seals in the thrusters, detected while engineers did a series of tests on the ground with another Starliner capsule. Based on this information, Boeing thinks it can fix the problem on future capsules, while also insuring there will be no problems returning the astronauts from ISS.

The thrusters in question are all attitude thrusters, where there is a lot of redundancy and the issue has been seen to be well controlled from the start. The larger thrusters used for the undocking and de-orbit burn have been tested as well, and have not shown any similar issues at all.

The ground tests have also identified the cause of the helium leaks within the capsule engine system. Boeing will use this data to fix later capsules as well. These leaks are not a concern for the return to Earth.

The plan now is to do in the next few days one more set of static fire tests with the capsule docked on ISS, doing short bursts with all the attitude thrusters to further confirm what has been learned on the ground. If that goes as expected, a final meeting next week will determine the return date for the capsule and crew.

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Hungary/Axiom finalize deal to fly a passenger on its AX-4 commercial manned mission to ISS

9:52 am

Hungary and Axiom have finalized their agreement to fly 32-year-old mechanical engineer Tibor Kapu on Axiom’s AX-4 commercial manned mission to ISS, presently targeting an October 2024 launch date.

That flight will use a Dragon capsule and last 14 days. Kapu would be the second Hungarian to ever fly in space, following Bertalan Farkas’s eight day mission in 1980 in a Soyuz capsule during the Soviet era.

Hungary and Axiom had worked out an initial agreement in 2022, with the country to pay the company $100 million for the flight. At that time the flight was to last 30 days, not two weeks. It was also unclear if the mission would be free-flying or dock with ISS, or even whether it would fly on a Dragon or Starliner capsule. There is no word on how these changes have impacted the price.

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Saxavord: We will get our last required spaceport license by September

11:45 pm

Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea
Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea.

My heart be still: According to one official of the Saxavord spaceport in the Shetland Islands, it expects to get its last required spaceport license from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) of the United Kingdom sometime in September of this year.

In a presentation at the Farnborough International Airshow here July 23, Scott Hammond, deputy chief executive and operations director of SaxaVord Spaceport, said he expected the spaceport to receive the last of the licenses from U.K. regulators in September needed to host the inaugural launch of Rocket Factory Augsburg’s RFA ONE rocket there.

The red tape getting the first launch off at Saxavord has been odious and disheartening, to say the least. After almost two years of deliberations, the CAA awarded the spaceport its spaceport license in December 2023. This finally allowed it to be a spaceport, but apparently that was insufficient for it to be allowed to do any launches. The CAA then took three more months to issue what it called the range license.

Saxavord was still not allowed to do any launches. The CAA demanded one more license for what it calls “airspace access for launches.” I have no idea how this is different than the range license, unless the CAA has separated control of the surface from the air space, and thus requires two separate licenses for each. Either way, getting that approved has now dragged on for months. No one should be confident Saxavord’s September prediction for approval will turn out to be true.

All these licenses however will still not permit any launches to proceed. The CAA also requires each particular rocket company to get its own launch license. Though Saxavord as well as Rocket Factory are targeting a launch before the end of the year, soon after getting that last airspace license, they might be counting their chickens before they hatch, based on the CAA’s track record with Virgin Orbit.

After Cornwall got all its CAA licenses to allow Virgin Orbit to launch from that airport, Virgin thought it would be able to get is launch license quickly and launch within only a few months. Instead, the CAA took about a year to issue Virgin its launch license, with that long delay eventually becoming the main reason the company went bankrupt.

Rocket Factory unfortunately appears to have locked itself into Saxavord. It has already done a static fire test of its first stage there, and has delivered the rocket’s upper stage. If the CAA takes its time again giving its approval, the startup might find itself bleeding cash, as Virgin Orbit did.

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The anti-Semitic Pro-Hamas Democratic Party shows its colors again

5:17 pm

Democrats burn American flags in support of Hamas
Democrats burn American flags in support of Hamas

Today the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, came to Washington to meet with American government officials and give a speech before both houses of Congress.

Not surprisingly, numerous Democrats both inside and outside Congress showed their hatred of Israel and love of the Hamas terrorists, enthusiastically slandering Netanyahu, Israel, and its struggle to survive while elevating terrorists into “freedom fighters”, even though on October 7 last year those Hamas fighters weren’t fighting for freedom, they were out to kill Jews, eagerly raping, torturing, and murdering more than a thousand men, women, children, and babies simply because they were present inside Israel.

Inside Congress more than forty Democrats boycotted Netanyahu’s speech, including Vice President Kamala Harris (now running for president against Trump). Apparently Harris is courting the American Hamas voting block. Democrats who did attend made it clear in numerous ways that they oppose the right of Israel and Jews to exist and that they support Hamas’ murder of women, children and babies, though of course they couched their statements in cute ways filled with lies in order to give themselves plausible deniability. For example, Nancy Pelosi said this:
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July 24, 2024 Quick space links

3:30 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

 

 

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The mountains of Mars

11:33 am

Curiosity's view south July 24, 2024
Click for full resolution. For original images go here and here.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

Cool image time! The panorama above, created from two left navigation camera photos taken by the Mars rover Curiosity on July 24, 2024 (here and here), looks south up the flanks of Mount Sharp as well as into the Gediz Vallis channel that the rover has been exploring for the past year or so.

The overview map to the right provides us a wide view of Gale Crater and the rover’s entire journey there since it landed on Mars in 2012. The blue dot marks its present position. The yellow lines indicate the approximate view in the panorama above. The red line indicates the planned route, leaving Gediz Vallis to take a parallel canyon uphill to the west.

Curiosity during its dozen years on Mars has traveled just under 20 miles and climbed about 2,500 feet. The peak of Mount Sharp however is still about 26 miles away and about 16,000 feet higher.

The rover is now at the very base of the sulfate-bearing unit, which is why last month it literally ran over some rocks that were its first detection of pure sulfur crystals on Mars. Once Curiosity reaches that sulfate-bearing unit it is likely going to be an extremely alien landscape, comprised of rock that is suffused everywhere with sulfur. Such landscapes are likely impossible on Earth due to its oxygen-rich atmosphere. The sulfur and oxygen would interact, forming different molecules.

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Judge issues injunction against NLRB in favor of SpaceX

10:34 am

NLRB logo

A U.S. federal district judge today issued an injunction against the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), blocking any further action on its complaint against SpaceX until the courts rule on the constitutionality of that complaint, accepting SpaceX’s position that the NLRB’s decision to suspend that complaint pending a court decision was irrelevant.

The NLRB has sued SpaceX, claiming it had violated the labor rights of several former employees because it fired them for criticizing Musk publicly. SpaceX responded by suing the NLRB itself, claiming the law which founded it and allowed it to act as prosecutor, judge, and jury in all cases while also limiting the President’s ability to fire its officials was unconstitutional.

As the case moved through the courts, the NLRB suspended its case against SpaceX. The company however demanded this injunction as well, since it considered that suspension merely a ploy that could be rescinded at any time.

Judge Albright ruled in favor of SpaceX and imposed an injunction as the case proceeds. He said the ruling came in part because of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit’s ruling that restrictions on removal for administrative law judges in the Securities and Exchange Commission are unconstitutional.

You can read the judge’s decision here [pdf]. This quote from it however is very telling:
» Read more

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Webb takes infrared image of exoplanet

10:02 am

A Jupiter-sized exoplanet imaged by Webb
Click for original image.

Cool image time! Using the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have taken an infrared false color image of a multi-Jupiter-sized exoplanet located only twelve light years away and orbiting the K-type star Epsilon Indi A.

That picture, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, is to the right. The light of the star, indicated by the star symbol, has been blocked by Webb’s coronagraph, the size of which is shown by the dashed circle. The exoplanet is the orange blob to the left.

[This exoplanet] is one of the coldest exoplanets to be directly detected, with an estimated temperature of 35 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) — colder than any other imaged planet beyond our solar system, and colder than all but one free-floating brown dwarf. The planet is only around 180 degrees Fahrenheit (100 degrees Celsius) warmer than gas giants in our solar system. This provides a rare opportunity for astronomers to study the atmospheric composition of true solar system analogs.

The data also revealed that the exoplanet is twice as massive as expected and has a slightly different orbit than expected based on previous less precise data.

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SpaceX’s contract to de-orbit ISS reveals the inability of the older space companies to compete

9:49 am

Link here. The article goes into detail about the bidding process that led to SpaceX winning the contract $843 million fixed-price contract to build a specialized Dragon capsule to dock with ISS and de-orbit it. While its focus is on the refusal of the older companies (Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing) to sign the fixed-price contracts that NASA now prefers and that SpaceX can handle with no problem, it was this section that struck me the most:

SpaceX’s bid price was $680 million. The source selection statement did not reveal a price for Northrop’s bid other than saying it was “significantly higher.” Based on NASA’s budget request, Northrop’s bid was likely approximately twice as high.

But SpaceX did not just win on price. Its “mission suitability” score, effectively its technical ability to design, develop, and fly a vehicle capable of deorbiting the space station, was 822, compared to Northrop’s score of 589. SpaceX’s approach had one weakness, compared to seven weaknesses in Northrop’s bid, according to NASA evaluators.

Finally, the selection was also based on past performance by the contractors. SpaceX’s performance was rated as “very high,” given how it has delivered with the Cargo and Crew Dragon spacecraft and its Falcon 9 rocket. Northrop’s performance on Cygnus and its various rockets was given a “moderate” rating. Overall, the NASA evaluators expressed a “very high level” of confidence in SpaceX being able to complete the mission, whereas a “moderate level” of confidence was expressed in Northrop.

In other words, Northrop not only couldn’t do the job as cheaply and wasn’t even willing to do it at a fixed price, its technical performance has not been that good either.

The article focuses rightly on the present lack of any viable competitors to SpaceX, and the problems this raises for the entire American aerospace industry. I want to point out how this situation reveals a much more fundamental problem with the industry itself. The established aerospace industry is not only doing poor work, it is overcharging for it.

Or to put it more bluntly, it is unwilling or unable to compete. Relying on businesses with such bankrupt attitudes is not a good way to get anything done.

The hope had been that the newer startups (Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, Relativity, Firefly, etc) would pick up this slack, but except for Blue Origin the rocket capabilities of these companies are just not big enough yet to do it. Blue Origin’s proposed New Glenn rocket and associated spacecraft could do the job, but the company has demonstrated for the past decade its desire to emulate the older and failing big space companies rather than a new fresh face.

The new companies, given time, could solve this problem, since they are all willing to innovate and compete, but the apparent increase in the regulations imposed by the FAA and other government agencies in the past two years suggests they will be squelched as well.

Unless something changes, the U.S. is not going to see the space renaissance that seemed so promising only two years ago.

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Axiom hires British astronaut Tim Peake

9:32 am

Axiom has now added British astronaut Tim Peake to its staff, making him the fourth astronaut after Michael Lopez-Alegria, Peggy Whitson, and Koichi Wakata working for the commercial space station and space tourism company.

The decision appears to be in connection with Axiom’s agreement with the UK Space Agency to fly an all-British manned commercial mission in exchange for $19 million in government funding. NASA regulations require any commercial mission that docks with ISS to include as a company commander an experienced astronaut. By hiring Peake Axiom fulfills this requirement.

No date for this four-person two week mission to ISS has been announced. Nor have any other passengers been named. It is very possible this announcement today is a PR effort by Axiom to drum up interest from potential British customers because the earlier announcements have possibly failed to do so.

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Scientists find hydrogen molecules in Chang’e-5 lunar samples

9:18 am

According to China’s state-run press, scientists analyzing the lunar samples brought back by its Chang’e-5 lander have detected extensive “hydrated” molecules in Moon’s regolith.

The mineral’s structure and composition bear a striking resemblance to a mineral found near volcanoes on Earth. At the same time, terrestrial contamination or rocket exhaust has been ruled out as the origin of this hydrate, according to the study.

The Chinese article keeps referring to these molecules as a form of “water molecules” but that is dead wrong. These are mineral molecules that simply have hydrogen as a component. There is no water here.

The discovery suggests that the detection of hydrogen on the surface of the Moon, both in the permanently-shadowed craters at the poles as well as lower latitudes, might not be water at all, but hydrated minerals. If so, the Moon is going to be a much more difficult place to establish colonies or even research bases, as getting water (and hydrogen and oxygen) is going to require a much more difficult mining and processing effort.

For several years the data has increasingly pointed in this direction. And for several years I have noticed a strong unwillingness of scientists and the press to recognize the trend (as illustrated by the above article’s false insistence that these are water molecules). Water ice has not been ruled out yet in the permanently-shadowed craters at the poles, but the evidence is mounting against it.

I suspect this reluctance is fueled by a desire to not say anything that might discourage exploration of the Moon, and the possibility of water there has been the main driver for all the recent lunar exploration programs. I can’t play that game. As much as I want humanity to explore the Moon and the solar system, we mustn’t do it based on lies. The facts need to be reported coldly.

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