Sunspots crash in February

Scroll down to read this post.

Readers!

The time has come for my annual short Thanksgiving/Christmas fund drive for Behind The Black. I must do this every year in order to make sure I have earned enough money to pay my bills.

For this two-week campaign, I am offering a special deal to encourage donations. Donations of $200 will get a free autographed copy of the new paperback edition of Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, while donations of $250 will get a free autographed copy of the new hardback edition. If you desire a copy, make sure you provide me your address with your donation.

As I noted in July, the support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.

In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.

Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.

Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.

3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:

4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to

Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652

You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.

March 9, 2015 9:54 am Robert Zimmerman

NOAA today posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, showing the sunspot activity for the Sun in February. As I have done monthly for the past five years, I am posting it here below the fold, with annotations to give it context.

In the past two months I have noted how the ramp down from solar maximum has closely tracked the 2009 prediction of the solar scientist community (indicated by the red curve).

In February, however, that close tracking ended, with sunspots plunging far below the prediction. Note also that sunspot activity in March has also been weak.

February 2015 Solar Cycle graph

The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The red curve is their revised May 2009 prediction.

Historically the ramp down from solar maximum is slower than the ramp up. You can see this if you look closely at the red and green prediction curves, which are steeper on the upside but more stretched out on the downside. The activity now, however, suggests a faster ramp down than normal, though no one should be surprised if activity increases again and offsets this period of low activity. To find out what will happen we will just have to wait and see. At the moment the solar scientists really don’t understand the reasons why sunspot activity itself has remained so low beginning with the solar minimum in 2009.

I want to add a thank you to the people who run the NOAA website. In upgrading their website for NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, they had initially left out the old links to the press releases for the 2007 and 2009 predictions. I had emailed them about this, and Brent Gordon of their website team responded, making sure that these press releases were once again on line and available to the public.

2 comments

Lawrence Stoskopf N0UU

March 9, 2015 at 9:34 pm

Amazing how this data doesn’t agree with the radio propagation during last weekend’s ARRL DX Amateur Radio Contest. The high bands which depend upon sunspots were quiet and very productive. Stations worldwide were easily workable during expected propagation paths. The 28 MHz band was open for extended periods. These conditions won’t be back for quite a few years if the SS progression continues as plotted.

Thanks for your coverage of this topic.
Robert Zimmerman

March 9, 2015 at 10:14 pm

I should clarify that even though sunspot activity has been weak, sunspots have still been present. It is only weak relative to past solar cycles.

Sunspots crash in February

2 comments

Leave a Reply