The deadly impact of Russia’s Ukraine invasion on commercial space, on ISS, and beyond
The Russian invasion might be signaling the end of the ISS partnership.
Though the international ramifications of the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia in the past week will be far reaching and hard to predict, we can get a hint by reviewing the impact on Russia’s long-standing partnership on ISS as well as the effect the invasion will have on a number of commercial enterprises dependent on both Russian and Ukrainian space rocketry.
The International Space Station
All signs so far from the western partners on ISS indicate that they are guardedly hopeful that the cooperation with Russia will continue unimpeded. According to two stories (here and here) describing a panel discussion today at George Washington University Space Policy Institute, state department officials expressed complete confidence that the partnership at ISS will continue without interruption, as it did in 2014 when Russia invaded the Crimea, taking it from the Ukraine. From the first link:
Valda Vikmanis-Keller, Director of the State Department’s Office of Space Affairs, said cooperation continues with Russia’s State Space Corporation Roscosmos and the other ISS partners “to maintain safe and continuous operations.” As planned, three Russian cosmonauts will launch to ISS on March 18, and two Russians and one American will return on March 30.
The United States and Russia have been negotiating a crew exchange agreement where Americans will fly to ISS on Soyuz spacecraft and Russians on the U.S. commercial crew vehicles on a no-exchange-of-funds basis, unlike the past decade-and-a-half where NASA paid Russia to transport its crew members.
Vikmanis-Keller confirmed that three Russian cosmonauts are in training right now at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston. She also said two American astronauts are “wrapping up” their training in Russia now and “up to five NASA astronauts are scheduled for training in Russia.”
At the same time, Roscosmos’ head, Dmitry Rogozin, made a statement that indicated that cracks could easily develop in the partnership, based on the west’s generally hostile response to Russia’s invasion.
“We value highly our professional relations with NASA, but as an (ethnic) Russian and a citizen of Russia I am very unhappy with the openly hostile policy of the USA toward my country,” said the statement by Dmitry Rogozin, who heads Russian space policy and interfaces directly with NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.
What prompted the statement from Rogozin is not immediately clear. On Monday, he tweeted, “Glory to Russia” following Putin’s speech on Ukraine and Russia’s right to occupy territories of the former Soviet Union. Rogozin is a member of Putin’s inner circle, having previously served as a deputy prime minister in the government before leading Roscosmos.
Rogozin also stated however that a break is not something he wishes to see happen.
“Neither Russia nor the United States have much to gain by withdrawing from their partnership in space,” he told Ars. “An argument could be made that Russia has even more to lose, as Roscosmos’ budget hinges more on the space station than does NASA’s. If there is any change in the near term, it might be a delay to launching cosmonauts on US commercial vehicles and resuming flying NASA astronauts on Soyuz, but even that could carry disadvantages for both parties.”
From all this evidence I suspect that the Biden administration will behave like the Obama administration in 2014 by throwing a meaningless public tantrum about the invasion, imposing somewhat inconsequential sanctions while specifically leaving the ISS partnerships untouched.
In the long run however I suspect this war is just one more nail in the coffin of the partnership. The U.S. is moving towards privately owned space stations after ISS, which will not require any partnership with Russia at all. The war will make it easier to end ISS, with or without Russia participation.
Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus freighter, launched by Antares
Commercial Space
The conflict however could have much more serious consequences for at least one American rocket company. The first stage of Northrop Grumman’s Antares rocket is built by a Ukrainian company and uses two Russian-built engines. Whether these deals can survive the invasion is very unknown.
Antares is used to launch Cygnus freighters to ISS. Russia might not want those supplies to be blocked, since doing so will hurt its own operations on ISS. At the same time, Putin might wish to use this as an opportunity to indirectly damage the long term American operations on the station. He certainly appeared willing to do so with the anti-sat test recently that put a lot of space debris in orbits that will increasingly threaten ISS over time.
At the moment Northrop Grumman says it has the hardware needed for its next two flights to ISS. Beyond that all is unknown. Once again, this Russian invasion could be signalling the eventual end of the partnership at ISS.
While another American company, ULA, presently still uses Russian rocket engines for its Atlas-5 rocket, it has already received delivery of all the engines it needs for the last few Atlas-5 launches. The company is planning in the next two years to transition to its new Vulcan rocket, which does not use Russian engines, though its dependence on Blue Origin’s much delayed BE-4 engine has caused endless delays there as well.
Russia’s own rocket industry presently has only one western commercial customer, the satellite company OneWeb, which is launching its satellites using Soyuz-2 rockets. As OneWeb is jointly owned by an Indian company and the government of the United Kingdom, it is unclear whether those entities will take action to break off its deal. If I was to make a bet, I would say not likely. There is too much money involved. To delay OneWeb launches would simply cost the company too much.
The invasion however has likely ended the chance of Russia getting itself any new non-Russian satellite customers. Essentially, Russia’s market share for international commercial launches is now guaranteed to be zero, except for those remaining OneWeb launches. And once the OneWeb contract is completed, expect that company to look for launch alternatives outside of Russia.
The war will also likely impact negatively a new spaceport in Nova Scotia, which signed a deal with a Ukrainian rocket company to provide launch services at the spaceport. It is questionable whether those rockets will be delivered now.
As for western satellite companies, U.S. officials are warning that Russia could interfere with their operations as part of its military offensive, especially if those satellite provide any service to the Ukraine, such as American GPS satellites. From this second link:
As the Ukraine crisis escalates, U.S. National Reconnaissance Office Director Christopher Scolese warned that Russia’s military could target satellites to disrupt communications and GPS services.
“I think we’re seeing pretty clearly that Russia is committed to doing what they want to do in Ukraine, and they want to win,” Scolese said Feb. 23 at the National Security Space Association’s Defense and Intelligence Space Conference. “So I think it’s fair to assume that, to the extent that they can, and to the extent that they feel it won’t extend the conflict out of their control, that they will extend it into space,” Scolese said.
The risk of escalating the war beyond the Ukraine by interfering with American satellites, both commercial or government (such as GPS satellites), will likely force Russia to hold back. However, in war it is difficult to predict what will happen, and unlike the Crimean invasion in 2014, this invasion of the Ukraine is much larger and more extensive. If the Ukraine fights back with any success, Russia might feel compelled to block U.S. GPS and communications satellites, even to the point of launching anti-satellite missiles to destroy them. The risk is real, though at present small.
Europe’s partnership with Russia
Finally, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could have a very harmful impact on the partnership between Russia and the European Space Agency on several on-going projects, with the project most threatened the Mars rover Rosalind Franklin, its launch scheduled for later this year. Russia is providing the rocket and the lander, and should either be delayed the launch will likely not happen.
Furthermore, Arianespace’s partnership with Russia to use Soyuz-2 rockets is likely threatened as well. Other than the OneWeb launches, do not expect Arianespace to sign up any more customers for Soyuz-2. This war could accelerate what some sources have hinted, that the partnership was ending anyway.
Conclusion
Overall, the risks now are far more volatile than they were in 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimea. Not only is this war far larger, worldwide tensions are much higher because of the panic and governmental overreach and failure in the last two years because of COVID. Emotions are running high. Not only could the Russian invasion cause the end of its many international partnerships in space, the war could expand outward in ways that no one right now can predict.
No one could have guessed that the assassination of an archduke would
start World War I
For example, Taiwan reported today that nine Chinese aircraft had entered its defensive zone without permission today. China might have decided to use the distraction created by Russia’s action to move on Taiwan, and do its own invasion there. Both Russia and China see the Biden administration as weak and ineffective, and thus are eager to take advantage of this fact.
If the war widens, then all bets are off in space. While the partnership at ISS is expected to end before this decade is over, this conflict might accelerate that breakup significantly. Similarly, Europe’s partnerships with Russia are seriously threatened. This conflict might finally force France and Germany to sign on to the Artemis Accords, realizing at last that Russia and China are not reliable partners..
Finally, all commercial partnerships in the Ukraine are likely damaged or dead. While this fact will hurt some western businesses somewhat, the real harm will be to the Ukrainian space industry, which has been struggling to rebuild itself since the separation from Russia. The resumption of Russian rule will likely not benefit those companies, as Russia has now developed its own resources to replace them and will act to keep that business for itself.
The bottom line remains: At this moment the situation is emotional and unpredictable. Past events in 2014 suggest things will calm down and the space industry will continue as before, No one however should take that conclusion nonchalantly.
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Throw the Russians out the hatch
Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin said on Thursday that the ISS may deoribit…onto Europe or the US!
https://www.urdupoint.com/en/technology/iss-may-deorbit-onto-europe-or-us-if-sanction-1476213.html
Now in this insane clown world I have to watch for falling space stations.
On Ukraine, US and the West should just sit back and let Russia pay the price of the occupation of a huge country. Do not even impose sanctions. Have the UN indict the leadership for war crimes of killing civilians. But other than that, how does Russia intend to govern and satisfy the people of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia itself?
I am actually kind of hopeful the realization that the US has to compete in the world of power politics will force the ruling democrats to ease up on their beatdowns of working class republicans. The ruling elite is going to need domestic loyalty and respect from the governed to counter foreign powers which are intent on extending the territory under their control.
Heck, maybe SpaceX will be allowed to fly again as the US will need reusable heavy lift rockets which can be launched quickly to replace communications satellites knocked out a foreign enemy.
I was struck how much ISS resembles a sailing ship. Both designed to harvest the local resource efficiently.
The assembly looks a little cobbled together (it was!), especially the interior, but, hey, it’s what we’ve got.
Sanctions only hurt the poor any way. Rumor has it that Buran’s other ride–the AN-225 –has been destroyed.
… ..and the fine aeropace model firms that come from both nations are sure to be hurt by Putin’s Folly as well.
Sigh.
Things could have been bloodier…but it is still early.
I think what we are seeing now in Ukraine is primarily a consequence of America’s boundless imperial ambitions. Ukraine will be divided. The western part will belong to the US empire in the future. The other eastern part belongs to the Russian-Chinese power bloc.
I predict that one fall out from this is that many more countries will acquire nuclear arms, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Eastern European states to start with more to follow. With the UN following the League of Nations in demonstrating its worthlessness and US guarantees of doubtful worth, countries will look to their own defense.
Jeff Wright,
I am sad to say that you are correct, it has been confirmed the An-225 has been destroyed during the battle for the airport. I feel fortunate to have seen it land in SLC while I was taxiing out a few years ago.
Col Beausabre:
Forget it! The American hegemon would never allow its dependent and non-sovereign vassal states like Japan and South Korea to have their own control over nuclear weapons.
What are you really looking forward to? What Russia is currently practicing, regime change forced by force of arms, has long been common practice for the American empire for many years!
THE WAGES OF WEAKNESS AND “ELITE” THINKING
Thomas Freidman, Liberal Democrat “Elite”, “Woke”, “Progressive” thinker: The week in whoppers: Tom Friedman’s ‘oops,’ the WaPo’s stump and more (nypost.com)
John Kerry, Liberal Democrat “Elite”, “Woke”, “Progressive” thinker: Kerry: ‘I Hope President Putin Will Help Us to Stay on Track’ with ‘What We Need to Do for the Climate’ (breitbart.com)
Both Freidman and Kerry have a great admiration for the way that the Communist Chinese are able to get things done. In other words, neither have no real use for the concept of Democracy which is a bit less efficient than the Communist Chinese model.
Liberals / Democrats in power who are now essentially Leftists and who are all highly “Educated” and are elite thinkers are anti and un-American and do not really adhere to the principles of Democracy. They in fact by evidence despise it, they have highjacked it, they use it as a weapon against itself in order to diminish it.
And what does all this “Elite”, “Woke”, “Progressive” Liberal now Leftist Democrat thinking produce?
‘We had to invade Ukraine,’ says Putin: https://youtu.be/4p8jCuQmHlI
And what is next? China invading Taiwan? https://youtu.be/4clEdMsfa84 It’s a pretty good bet.
And why is all this now possible? All both Putin and president Xi
were waiting for was a weak, incompetent, “Woke”, “Progressive”, Liberal now Leftist and feeble American leadership change.
And wa lah! It magically appeared. Are you paying attention yet America?
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This is not the result of some fictional “boundless Imperial ambitions”. This is a result of a failure to lead, internationally.
Cotour:
“And why is all this now possible? All both Putin and president Xi
were waiting for was a weak, incompetent, “Woke”, “Progressive”, Liberal now Leftist and feeble American leadership change.”
Yes, Putin is defeating the bright and progressive ideology (Globohomo for short) in Ukraine. That’s what this is about.
The question of “allowing” Japan to have nuclear weapons has never been an issue. They have the means and the know how to build them, but they have deliberately chosen not to, based on their unique place in history as the only country to be on the recieving end of atomic weapons.
Vassal states? Really?
Question: Are the Chinese Space Station and the ISS in very different orbital planes (orbital inclination and perihelion argument)? I suppose so, otherwise the Russians might be able to link their ISS share with the Chinese station.
Next, are you going to tell us about the Nazi’s in Ukraine? Or how they were “antagonizing” the Russians in the Donbass region?
BTW, those region were never disputed, they have always been part of Ukraine.
sippin_bourbon:
Do South Korea, Japan and Germany have military bases in America, or is it the other way around? Who occupied when?
Q:
“Yes, Putin is defeating the bright and progressive ideology (Globohomo for short) in Ukraine. That’s what this is about.”
In Ukraine?
Defeating the “Elite” “Globohomo” movement as an incidental result. The “Elite” “Globohomo” movement in the world has delivered both Xi and Putin their opportunity to further acquire and retain power.
Which when you step back and actually see it for what it is fulfills all party’s concerned, Putin, Xi and Shwab / Soros with the destruction or diminishing of America and its Constitution of the political power and influence in the world.
One thing stands in the way of the Russians, the Chinese and the Globalists and their “Great reset”, and that is America.
And that is how I see this all.
With China and Russia on the Security Council, the UN will be continue to prove it is a useless forum. This may also finally prove the uselessness of NATO.
My father and I discussed if NATO should continue to exist years ago, and, the cold war vet that he is, said “Well if it keeps Russia off balance, it should stay.” Since then, they waltzed into Georgia, Crimea, and now Ukraine. So, NATO is not even doing that.
The Trump admin rightfully saw it as being used by European states to outsource national security. They were not paying up for the collection security, and relying on us to foot the bill, while providing an umbrella of security. Trump’s threats to pull out caused a few to start paying again, but that policy was reversed by Biden.
This event should either seal it’s doom, or bolster it, because the status quo cannot stand. The Baltic states have too much to lose. With Belarus, and not Ukraine cutting them off from the rest of Europe, geographically, there is little to prevent Putin from eyeing them as the next jewels to return to the Soviet Crown.
Questioner, currently Tiangong-3 (Tianhe module) is at 378 x 385 km, 41.5° and the ISS is at 413 x 420 km, 51.6°. Yes they are in different orbital planes.
The governments of those places WANT us there.
South Korea enjoys the added security. Note, the war there never really ended. Just on hold.
When we reduced our footprint in Germany, a lot of Germans were upset. They enjoyed the extra money that we payed for that presence. They also enjoyed the money that service members and contractors injected into the economy. They enjoyed the benefits of sending their own servicemen to the US to cross train with us. Not to mention the buying and selling of equipment in both directions.
That is not occupation.
Japan, has also hosted our bases for the same reason. Strategic security. We have reduced our footprint there as well. Interaction with Japanese forces in the face of Chinese aggression and disputes has been welcome.
That is not occupation.
You really need to stop taking your talking points from Russian agents.
Jay:
thanks. Yes, 10° differences is too much. This orbit plane change requires to much delta-v (about 1370 m/s) and therefore propellant.
sippin_bourbon:
Yes, America has reduced its troop levels in the countries mentioned because they no longer pose a threat to America, e.g. through independent national action. However, America can drastically increase its troop levels very quickly at any time without these vassal states being able to do anything about it. In the meantime, of course, regimes and political systems have been installed and trained in these states that want nothing more than to submit to America. These states are so hollow and weak in their own national identity, especially Germany, that they are already dependent on a hegemon who also protects them militarily.
Incidentally, apart from America, there are only a handful of sovereign countries that fit this description. Not coincidentally, it is precisely these states that America has declared its enemies (“rogue states”).
After the re-build, troops were not based in Germany to keep our thumb on them. They were there to stifle Soviet expansion.
Your view of foreign relations with these countries is wildly inaccurate. The fact that we had to negotiate with these countries just to get them on board with actions against Russia belies that they are in anyway vassals states. Any time we increase troop counts in Germany, for example, we talk to the German Government. Nord Stream 2 was actually against European and US interests, for reasons that should really be obvious at this point. But they did it anyway. Now they stand to pay the price.
As for Germany not having a National Identity, I do not know where to start. Germany is the industrial heart of the EU. Oh, and that whole EU thing.. we have no role in it. If we did, it would be structured a lot differently.
I think you will find though, that just because they often agree with our policies does not mean that they are vassals. It means they also see the benefits of the policies, and want the same thing.
Your definition of troops being present making them vassals it too narrow. In that case, we are Canadian Vassals. There was a unit of Canadians in California recently. Or are they our vassals, too, because we train up there annually? Strategic Partnership are the words you are looking for.
Both Russia and China see the Biden administration as weak and ineffective
That implies that it may or may not be weak and ineffective; it’s just seen that way. I would have phrased that as “Both Russian and China see how weak and ineffective the Biden administration is”
America’s boundless imperial ambitions
We sure suck at imperialism. Where’s my share of the loot?!? No blood for oil! Wait, we didn’t get any oil? What? You’re doing it wrong!
The American hegemon
“Hegemony” I will grant, but it’s not our fault that the rest of the world just sucks more than we do. Have you looked at our debt and the ridiculously low interest rates on our bonds? That doesn’t mean we’re doing well. It means that all the other debt-issuers are doing worse (except Germany – they got away with negative interest rates).
markedup2
Hegemony vs Political Influence?
Hegemony implies a great deal more control. It also implies a threat of failure to comply.
Political influence means we convince them to go along, but usually comes at some sort of political or economic price.
We have either bought a lot of influence in one form or another around the Europe and Asia. It has not been cheap.
“Over three months, senior Biden administration officials held half a dozen urgent meetings with top Chinese officials in which the Americans presented intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade, according to U.S. officials.
Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said.”
New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/us/politics/us-china-russia-ukraine.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
If anyone needs an illustration of how poorly the administration understands the current multi-polar world, this is it.
sippin_bourbon:
What I absolutely dislike is not America’s claim to power, but how it hypocritically hides it behind false morals. Americans present themselves as sheep, but they are actually wolves!
Dr. Daniele Ganser | “9/11 truth ends illegal wars”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-4LtJKRq0U
Not another 9/11 conspiracist… oh boy.
“Illegal” wars.
By who’s measure?
All potentials exist in the Political realm.
EXPLANATION: Strategy Over Morality describes a two-tiered “conversation” between a Public and their Empowered Leadership where the Public believes there is only a single, no tiered conversation occurring and that single conversation is assumed by the Public to relate to the Public’s morality and truth model perspective.
Noting that both WW I and WWII was under Democrats so was Korea and Vietnam
sippin_bourbon
Concerning China. It is my belief that if we (America) had worked far harder at keeping Chinese influence out of Hong Kong and worked far harder at keeping it an independent nation we would have the ability today of using our influence there as an lever against China.
Russia and China could very easily have a territory conflict (if we had previously worked at it) right now that could be Chinas influence over Russia. But as it stands they are far to friendly.
If we had already moved North and South Korea towards peace we could have also used our military presence there as a point of influence.
As it sits now we have no influence over Chinese political decisions.
If true, Putin cannot sustain these kinds of losses for much longer:
“Ukraine says it has inflicted one of Russia’s heaviest ever day of losses with more than 1,000 casualties: Putin’s losses now stand at 2,800 troops, 80 tanks and 516 armored vehicles as fightback continues”
He may have bitten off much more than he can chew.
One week longer? Maybe two? Then what?
What we really need is a tutorial on the history – Lionel on Donbass
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrh-1QqvhjA
Yes, please, more geography lessons from the Russian State controlled media.
Not.
At the moment only about 60,000 Russian soldiers are said to be in Ukraine. These troops are also available.
“Thousands of Chechen servicemen ready for Ukraine deployment – reports”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6V1yk9IBPo
2023: JOE BIDEN WILL BE IMPEACHED
I do not know whether Joe Biden will be removed from office or not, but he will after the 2022 midterm elections be impeached. That is assuming the elections will be allowed to take place due to “Domestic terrorism”.
1. Day one Joe Biden stopped building the Southern border wall and actively invited any illegal worldwide to cross our border and invade the U.S. which they are doing by the millions along with massive amounts of drugs and human trafficking all being paid for by the American people.
2. Day one Joe Biden stopped the XL pipeline from Canada and disabled and weakened U.S. ability to produce energy. And he green lighted and clearly empowered the Russians and allowed the Nordstrom pipeline from Russia to Germany without securing any guarantees from Russia concerning their potential aggression.
3. Joe Biden surrendered Afghanistan and a strategic military airfield that threatened China, left thousands of Americans behind enemy lines, and unnecessarily cost 13 soldiers their lives. Joe Biden clearly strategically empowered China by removing that American controlled military airfield.
4. Joe Biden’s economic policies have created extreme inflation and combined with his disabling the U.S. ability to produce energy we are now forced to purchase energy from Russia.
5. Through Joe Bidens projected weakness, physical and mental infirmity and Leftist Democrat party “Progressive”, “Woke” policies he has green lighted Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.
6. We wait to see how president Xi of Communist China will proceed with their clearly stated aspirations to repatriate Taiwan. We wait.
And Joe Biden is barely more than one year in office, can you imagine where our country and the world will be if he is able to remain in office and even semi empowered by the Congress and Senate? Joe Biden is a BS man, a jackass, a tool of people who actually have a vision.
Joe Bidens incompetence and his anti pro American agenda is not so much about incompetence, it’s about fulfilling the anti and un-American now existentially desperate Leftist Democrat party machines agenda to, as stated by B. Obama: “Fundamentally transform America”. From that point of view Joe Biden and “Kammy” are doing a great job.
You want more of this America? I did not think so. What are you going to do about it?
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“Why Putin’s $20 BILLION-a-day invasion is NOT going to plan: As Ukrainian forces OBLITERATE enemy convoy, Estonia’s ex-defense chief says Russia will run out of money, weapons and resources if Kyiv hold out for 10 days”
Might Putin be rewarded with an exclusive but short stay in a small room with one drain and a one-way ticket to Communist nirvana?
The answer to this question may be known in short order.
Cotour:
Why are you so upset? Russia is now pretending to be doing what America has been doing for decades on dozens of occasions in the past. Namely wars of aggression for geopolitical reasons. What we are witnessing now is the end of America’s sole dominance in the world. This was already indicated in Syria and then in Afghanistan and is now continuing. This process is of course aided by your present weak, feminine President, who is run by women.
I absolutely agree with your assessment here: “This process is of course aided by your present weak, feminine President, who is run by women.”. 100%, this is “Equality” in today’s America. A waste of time, weakness is its own reward.
But what the Globalists desire which is to fulfill their agenda and remove America from the global power equation may not be as easily to accomplish as they believe it is. And why is that? If you have been paying attention to what I propose, the Globalists agenda is dependent on the American Constitution being made moot. And I do not believe that is likely because it is built for exactly what they are throwing at it.
And I see things in terms of Strategy Over Morality regarding politics and power and the reality that exists is a function ultimately ones ability to make it so.
All potentials exist, and there are no guarantees.
Americas only solution? The world’s only solution? Strong AMERICAN leadership.
Cotour:
What you don’t understand: America’s supremacy = globalism!!!
AFTER THE DEMOCRAT INSANITY, WHO?
After the now without argument insane, weak, Liberal, Leftist and unpatriotic Democrat party machine has been razed and rejected by the rational Democrats in America (Yes, there is still a segment of a more rational and patriotic Democrat party in America), who stands in the wings that will lead the Democrat party?
Tulsi Gabbard and the like. Tulsi Gabbard has been a steady and rational patriotic Democrat voice. And make no mistake, she is probably too Liberal for me, but she is what will inherit the mess of the Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden Stalinist worthy administration of America.
“Tulsi Gabbard crosses party lines and goes after the ‘power elite’ in CPAC speech where she earns standing ovation for praising the Durham probe into ‘Clinton corruption’ and blasting FISA courts”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10553733/Tulsi-Gabbard-earns-standing-ovation-CPAC-praises-Durham-probe.html
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/26/04/54676437-10553733-image-m-126_1645850759068.jpg
I have clearly stated here before (Apparently you are not paying attention?)”
“If I have to choose who I want to dominate the Globe, I choose America and its Constitution with all its warts, perversions and corruptions.”
And so should you, if you have to choose.
And it clearly appears that you must choose.
Time to set the Russkies adrift. The two reasons they were brought onboard to create the ISS no longer exist. Number one: Space Station Freedom was on the verge of being cancelled because its costs were mushrooming—making it an international program protected it from cancellation. Number two: the USSR had fallen and we wished to employ their rocket scientists and prevent them from selling their expertise to emerging rogue players like the Norks and the Mullahs. That genie is long gone from that bottle and our (finally!) emergent commercial space sector will soon make affordable and much more capable space stations and profitable space industry a reality. The Russians at this point are simply a lead weight on our ankle and the only reason I see to keep them involved is to dissuade them from actively opposing our efforts, with crazy things like, I don’t know, kinetic ASAT “tests”. Oh wait……
“Russia is now pretending to be doing what America has been doing for decades on dozens of occasions in the past.”
– More Russian propaganda talking points.
Concerned wrote: “Number two: the USSR had fallen and we wished to employ their rocket scientists and prevent them from selling their expertise to emerging rogue players like the Norks and the Mullahs.”
Who knew that the Russians would become the roque player, threatening to use nukes and to drop the ISS onto countries and continents?
The Russians have told the Ukrainians they wished to discuss the surrender.
The Ukrainians refused, saying they have no way to take care of that many prisoners
Col Beausabre,
Perhaps the Ukrainians could also use the word “nuts.”
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/nuts
Among my favorite war stories:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Bulge#Siege_of_Bastogne
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePCVxoWlB2g (“Patton” 17 seconds)
My understanding is that Bastogne has a few businesses whose names reference that reply.
Putin Has Never Lost a War. Here Is How He’ll Win In Ukraine
https://www.newsweek.com/2022/03/11/putin-has-never-lost-war-here-how-hell-win-ukraine-1682878.html
Lijian Zhao: “If democracy means this, be ware! USA bombing list: the Democracy World Tour… none of these countries have ever attacked, invaded or occupied the USA.”
https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1140713703563829248?lang=de
Dude, your propaganda is falling on deaf ears.
Apparently Putin is doing do well, this morning, it is being reported that he is warming up the Nukes.
If you need any clearer illustration that he has become maniacal, it is this.
He is prepared to to begin nuclear annihilation because of this.
Questioner:
You never answered my challenge to you.
Choose:
A: The perversion, corruption and Global dominance of America.
Or
B: The Perversion, corruption and Global dominance of Communist China, Russia and the Globalist agenda of the World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab and George Soros.
Sometimes choices are simple.
And wherever you live, I forget where, where do you believe your and your family’s and your country’s best interests lie?
This question is open to all who would like to participate.
“Putin is smart, our leaders are dumb”: Trump blasts US response to Ukraine crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLJvCuWuRXk
Sure, Pootin is smart. But also debased. Also maniacal.
He will be in the history section with Hitler, Stalin, Napoleon, and other tyrants.
Questioner:
What do you not understand about what Trump said?
All he is doing is verbalizing rational observations regarding the strategy that Putin has rationally come to. Its called the truth. AND it does not mean that Trump is in support of Putins actions. Not at all.
This is your and the dopey Democrats in the media who are attempting to sell this what is but another fraud to the world and the dopey Liberal / Leftists who are the clear and present danger to EVERYTHING!
Are you unbale to think clearly and in your own interests also?
Now I ask you again, CHOOSE.
And if you are unable to or are unwilling to that would indicate that you are as confused and as much of a problem as Putin, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, BLM, Klaus Schwab, Geroge Soros etc.
YOU and your ilk are the problem here.
Cotour: Questioner lives in Germany. His agenda has been to consistently excuse tyrants and blame the U.S. for all the world’s evil. He even tried at one point to blame the U.S. for the holocaust. To sum up his argument: The American refusal, during the war, to accept Hitler’s offer to take all the Jews from him, was what caused their death.
He also sees people only as a member of their race or ethnicity, and ranks people by that superficial measure. He revealed this in his early comments, and than backed off when he realized if he was too upfront about these positions I would ban him. He has also admitted as such. This is the topic he has previously said he won’t speak about on BtB.
“Conscious Choice”, yes.
I have written about a very highly “Educated” friend, now former by his choice, due to both the politics that we both adhere to and the addition of how we both saw Covid and chose to deal with it. I got it and survived; he got the shot and lived in fear.
My last comment to him when he also refused to answer simple questions about what he thought and why was: “You are not a serious man”. And that was my last communication with him. And that is fine with me.
And so anyone in my estimation who is unwilling to answer what should be simple questions having to do with what you think and why you think it, Is NOT a serious man or person. And that is an indictment.
So if you are however unable to answer the question and properly defend your position then one should have a chance to think about the question until a time in the future where one might be better able and equipped to answer it. And that is fine.
But to present an argument, whether it be about Trump, Putin, Globalism or anything else, and not be able to fully defend and explain that argument, then that to me is fraudulent and is more of a manipulation or a psyops in furtherance of an immutable political position.
If you cannot have a conversation and explain to me why you believe something related to a direct question, then that is a problem and I have no respect for that.
Victor Davis Hanson –
“How a Border War in Europe Led to WWII”
Hillsdale College event
https://youtu.be/tQq-ORA4fHw?t=547
1:14:00
There is something in the genes in some of the German / Austrian / Russian make up. Is it a thousand years of brutality in trying to survive their neighbors’ aggressions? Maybe.
https://youtu.be/SSMemfHh7Og
We all have the potential, but there is something going on deep in the psyche of some that allow them to “Go there” and justify it.
Cotour:
I was pleased that we were able to find some good points of agreement last year (e.g. on Trump or Covid), but if you claim that Putin is a supporter of globalism, then you lose me and I do not know, to put it bluntly, how I should classify you (positively spoken).
Simple, both Putin and president Xi are the beneficiaries of Globalism.
That has been my continuing point for as long as I have been commenting here on BTB.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Listen when the enemy speaks: https://youtu.be/PbVD4tB4cVQ
Can you understand what Mr. Schwab stated here? Angela Merkel, Justin “Castreau” Trudeau and Vladimir Putin are among the *NEW* Global leaders in the World Economic Forum model.
I find debates over globalism pointless.
The definitions and nuances are so varied for each point of view, it seems no two groups can agree on it’s meaning, but more how to use it as a bat to beat someone over the head (virtually speaking, usually).
And no, I am not asking for your definitions of it.
Mr Z, that clears things up a bit, and why he calls Germany a vassal state.
Germany is defensively hollow. But the fact is that there is no one to blame for that but the German leadership themselves.
The previous administration tried to convince them and other NATO members to ante up for their own mutual defense. They failed to heed the warning.
If they were a vassal state, we would have simply commanded it.
But since they are not, the failure is on their own heads.
“The Bundeswehr, the army I am allowed to lead, is more or less bare”.
He states this is light of 41 years of peace time service.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6902486582067044353/
“Putin will not Attack Ukraine | George Friedman”
Very detailed analysis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzX2N1L3A-c
Questioner:
“His own people do not understand why he is doing this”.
https://youtu.be/Gnm_pmbtxx0
Its pretty clear to me anyway why Putin is doing what he is doing at this particular time.
1. America’s current leadership is mired in internal “Woke”, “Progressive” distractions and agendas.
2. America is currently being led by an extremely weak and deficient leader and administration.
3. Putin along with president Xi will attempt at this opportune time to force a dramatic power shift in the world I.E. the Globalist / World Economic Forum Globalist model within which they dominate.
4. And I will throw in the fact that Ukraine was seeking membership in NATO. But I will give more weight to the first three reasons.
Its pure strategy driven by opportunity being executed for advantage in world power structure.
Capece?
This however if Putin does not conclude his operations soon may result in him being “rewarded” in an unexpected manner. I have read that this operation is costing possibly $20 billion a day? Russia cannot sustain that level of offensive operation. Especially while his men are being killed, 4500 dead and 146 tanks plus already destroyed if the reporting is correct.
What is his end game? It is not clear right now, Putin has a problem and is rattling his nuke sword. He is desperate for positive results.
And desperation for someone with a couple of thousand nukes is not a good thing as Martha would say.
Q:
Mr. Fiedman gave an educated opinion as to what Mr. Putin would and would not do, but he was incorrect Putin has attacked, and so you must ask, Why?
What lead Putin to that strategic conclusion?
And I propose that my assessment might be the better fit.
Putin had to have this all sewn up in 3 or 4 days and needed Zolensky to flee to Poland. But that did not happen and now he is a stone cold, died in the wool newly minted 100% hero. Exactly the opposite of what Putin needed.
Cotour:
to the loss numbers. I also hear success stories from the Russian side with large numbers of enemy targets destroyed. I don’t think either side can be trusted. Both sides exaggerate and lie. We have no proof.
Ukraine is said to be using banned 122mm phosphorus ammunition.
The truth about you, me and everything else will become apparent soon enough.
Cotour:
Not not yet confirmed: Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 Drones Destroy Russian Convoys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdTGT1dLSKA
Putin now appears to be taking off his kid gloves.
“Ukraine War – Massive Thermobaric Blast In Cherkasy Oblast Reported
”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cwjOvzLXQk
Q:
https://youtu.be/c-kMHYNxNgg
Choose.
Cotour:
I will choose the one who is most successful in fighting leftism and globalism. And you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7H4HFmqH7NQ
Then you back Trump or anyone who has adopted his stance.
And your security, as is Lee S’s security, comes from a strong America.
What changed?
https://youtu.be/ba6hfm9GwG8
Putin in 2019 being shocked at the thought of nukes being used, and that there was no Russia China alliance to speak of.
What changed? The Liberal Leftist Democrats taking power in America and the weakness and political insanity that that they have pushed within our country.
And of course, the opportunity that the power vacuum that the Democrat puppet Joe Biden / Kammy Harris “Woke”, “Progressive” administration strategically presented regarding the rearrangement of the world “Globalist” power structure because of it.
And I would like to point out that Putin in this video is trim and fit, and if you look at him today, he is overweight and bloated to my eye.
All of a sudden Putin is an overeating overweight slob? Or is he sick and on chemo?
Just some interesting observations.
Adult Swim
” Li’l Hitler ”
https://youtu.be/pxJ_BJmkiCk
0:59
Cotour:
This discussion contains some rather interesting information from an American (?) living in Ukraine about the real situation in Ukraine. He describes the Russian advance as very successful!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1AIbQ3XBn0
“I’m Here In Kiev, Ukraine”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtN6C9xfzFo
Ellis Karanikolaou: “A Masterpiece in Modern Journalism. This one will be remembered historically as one of the greats of all time. Astute Political commentary peppered with contemporary Human observations. Thank you Coach.”
bestiaccia:
“The simple step of a courageous individual is not to take part in the lie.
One word of truth outweighs the world.”
― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn
Ayyy Gabriel:
“This is one of the greatest livestreams i’ve ever listened to. Thanks mate, i had no idea of who you were before but I wont ever forget your cussing mixed with militiary/political analysis. At this stage, watching anything from the MSM for information is subjecting yourself to living a life viewing everything through poison-tinted spectacles. Bless you good sir!”
Nope. That guy is full of it.
To him it is all about because some people just hate russia.
No.
He also glosses over things that do matter, because they do not support the narrative he wants to tell.
Big man telling the truth. This must hurt American ears!
What appears to be happening is that Putin although he is sustaining significant losses if reports are to be believed and some of the video and pictures in the media sustain that opinion. Putin is in the process of strangling Ukraine’s military and energy supplies which will bring them to a halt if they do not surrender and negotiate.
And Zelinsky has now apparently demanded that Ukraine be admitted into the EU? Even though the Ukraine has no qualifications to be admitted.
Putin wants / needs Ukraine to at least be neutral and not enter the EU nor enter into NATO. Zelinski needs leverage, which he has little to none of. But Putin has ensured that he is now an historical figure, a stone-cold, stone washed international war hero and Democratic freedom fighter. If he lives he is a rock star.
Unknown how this exactly plays out, but Putin is committed and does not appear to be willing to pulling back until he gets more or less what he demands. He has painted himself into being defined as a genocidal war criminal internationally and he believes that its worth that long term risk.
Putin’s other long-term risk? If this takes too long weeks / months (a guerilla war for years?) he may be “rewarded” by internal powers that want /need him removed?
And why has Putin decided that this is the correct time to execute this apparently long planned strategy?
America is perceived as being weak with the confusion that is prevailing internally for now and our weak president (D) and Liberal / Leftist administration that is more concerned with trans issues in the military than securing the country and by extension the world.
As a related aside: Joe Biden is totally compromised as far as Ukraine AND Russia goes. Remember this withholding $1 billion dollar Hunter Biden involved potential indictment threat issued by Vice President Joe Biden to the Ukraine?
“You’re not getting the billion dollars until that prosecutor is fired”. And who was the prosecutor investigating? Hunter Biden and his associates. And the $3.5 million to Hunter Biden from the mayor of Moscow’s wife? Totally compromised.
https://youtu.be/rnIPw_Who7E
https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.GS2pIcdChNXADnDNP84GRwHaFf?w=219&h=180&c=7&r=0&o=5&dpr=1.25&pid=1.7
Cotour:
What Russia Wants From Its Invasion of Ukraine—and Why Zelensky Is Evil
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vdiEABLFoo
Cotour:
You fell for Western propaganda about Russia and Putin’s strength. Watch the video above to learn.
Russia is so far following typical Russian tactics.
They send in prisoners, sub people ( Chechens), and under trained conscripts.
They are sent in with old equipment and no supplies. As evidenced by vehicles running out of fuel and solders begging for food. Prisoners and free equipment for the defenders.
this is to soften up the enemy but uses up a lot of equipment and people.
It also gives time to the enemy to get supplied and ready. As evidenced by the civilians making up fire bombs and IED;s.
This just means it will get VERY ugly when it breaks down to urban warfare and anti Russian insurgency.
As an aside my community has a huge Ukrainian population. And their flag is popping up all over the city. There is some talk of a supply and relief flight being organized. 90 years after the big immigration cycle we still have Ukrainian language church services.
Q: Not an unreasonable video and analysis. Zelenski is evil, but Putin is then what?
If you are going to choose to see the one in those terms, then it is YOU who are being manipulated by propaganda. What either side does strategically in order to prosecute their perspective and secure their interests can be seen as being evil depending on your chosen perspective.
PZ: Yes, the crews and equipment that have first gone into Ukraine appears to be a bit rag tag and very young. Sacrificial?
Now this is an interesting picture:
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/28/14/54757019-10559373-image-a-13_1646056851918.jpg
Vlad in a meeting discussing the sanctions sitting 25 feet away from his generals at the other end of the table.
Now what does this tell you? Vlad is Covid paranoid?
Zelenski is evil, because he does not bow to Putin’s desires.. That is the take away.
Putin simply wants to come in and install a puppet government. He even says that in the video.. No concerns or worries about the people.
Those that resist will simply be eliminated later, when he has full control of the press and can hide it.
The previous video with this bozo talked about the Color Revolution, but failed to truly outline that most of the people wanted to align themselves with Europe, and not Russia. What he will not admit is that they did so seeking the freedom and prosperity found there.
But he does say that any alignment away from Russia is a threat, and therefore, Putins actions are justified.
This guy in the vid is a boot licker.
Let me re-phrase. He says Zelenski is evil because he is leading people to fight back, to resist. That is what is boils down to. How evil it is to fight back. He would not be so evil , if he simply rolled over.
The Russian Army, they are so nice, they are hitting then pulling back.. because, they don’t really want to kill people. Putin is actually a real humanitarian like that. Never mind the fact that ZERO people would be dying if he had never invaded in the first place.
But you see he had to.. because those silly Ukraine people, they are buying into the “lies” about peace and prosperity to be found in the democratic West. Putin, the savior, must save Ukraine from this horror.
That is the basis for this guy’s twisted argument. It does not matter how nice and reasonable you tell the lies. The fact is Ukraine is not Russia. The Ukraine people are not Russian and do not want to be Russian, and definitely do not want to be ruled by Russia. Zelensky knows this, because they elected him. And he will will likely die because of it.
The guy is also basing his argument on a clear lie, that Zelensky is evil for handing out weapons to untrained people.
Ukraine has had compulsory service for most of it’s modern history, except for 2 years, between 2012 and 2014. Minimum of 12 months of training and service. So every make between 20 and 27 has a year of service.
Do I think that means some untrained people might have gotten a gun. Probably. But overall, all males in Ukraine have training.
I lost count of half-truths through this video.
And half a truth, means half a lie.
Go in peace, and peace be with you, so sayeth the lord.
https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.b01f58362ac9eb4fee40384356cf89cb?rik=LjacF0djq6jvjw&pid=ImgRaw&r=0
The longer this goes on the worse Putin is seen and the more it costs and he becomes in time a liability.
Zelinsky, alive or dead is a stone cold, stone washed international hero and an icon of democracy.
What comes after this for Russia in the long term? Its not good.
Q:
I guess you (And Putin) would align with these stellar anti and un American “world leaders”?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10561299/AOC-Bernies-Democratic-Socialists-group-blames-Russia-invasion-demands-end-NATO.html
I again ask: Choose, there is no middle ground choice, even Switzerland has made a choice.
What the Western lying media (already known from their Covid lies) have been doing about the so-called failure of the Russians so far is ridiculous and of course untrue. All in all, absurd propaganda, that’s what these media can do. Then they pretend to know the Russians’ schedule. Ridiculous. But don’t panic. The Russians have everything under control. They will win. “Red Pill Coach” did a remarkable analysis on this that is easy to understand and which I linked above. Those readers who have the courage to know the truth can watch these videos while others are encouraged to continue being deceived and brainwashed.
Have a nice day.
Here again is 18-min version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vdiEABLFoo
Information about the current course of the front. Please use subtitle translation function.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb83JwO3Vi0
“What the Western lying media (already known from their Covid lies)”
No one can argue with that statement.
We are going to have to wait to see what the real facts are as this Russian invasion proceeds, this is now the fog of war.
The supply of Stinger missiles and Javelins or similar seems the best and most potent military help other countries can be supplying to the Ukrainians at this moment in time. Deny the Russians of their free access to the air and ground domination.
Things that they should have been fully stocked up on beforehand. Every household like in Switzerland should have been well armed and many should have had these anti-tank / anti-aircraft munitions in their closets.
Better late than never. But its pretty late.
HOW TWISTED AND DESOERATE IS THE LIBERAL NOW LEFTIST DEMOCRAT LOGIC?
Howard Stern, who in my opinion is no longer relevant and has been on a campaign recently to attempt to still appear relevant comments on Putin.
“Howard Stern Pulls No Punches Blasting Republicans Who Praise ‘F**king Animal’ Putin”
And Stern commented similarly during the Covid / “Vaccine” controversy where he called for people who chose not to be “Vaccinated” with a still experimental drug, and ONLY that experimental drug to the exclusion of all others that were known by the powers that be to be effective. And that they should be denied all medical care if they got sick or needed hospitalization implying that they should die. What a precious genius.
Stern: “Referring to those anti-vaxxers who say the decision about whether or not to get the shot is tied to their personal freedom, Stern said, “F*** them. “. A bold Stern maintained those who refused the vaccine should be refused treatment once they are infected. “Go f*** yourself,” he said. “You had the cure, and you wouldn’t take it.”. (Bold? He is an emotional has-been media whore jackass IMO).
Trump and others have stated facts related to Putin in general that he was to be respected and that he was intelligent. Thats it. No one in their right mind is praising Putin nor supporting him in his aggressions and now mass murder in Ukraine. No sane person and that includes Democrats AND Republicans thinks that.
The truth in life may be distasteful, but it is the truth just the same whether you desire it to be so or not. Ignore the truth at your own peril.
Howard Stern like many others on the Left are desperate to craft a narrative even if it is unsupportable in logic or fact.
Howard Stern? No longer relevant and just one more desperate Liberal Democrat in a political party that has lost its way and is now dominated by the anti and un–American Leftists among them. They are but tools that serve the Lefts political purpose. And that is both sad and stupid.
Who still listens to Howard Stern? Still juvenile fart joke obsessed 60-year-old 16-year old’s?
Cotour:
Please continue to indulge in illusions. Better you should try to not fool yourself. There will not and cannot be any other outcome than victory for Russia. And I say this without being an actual Putin supporter.
The Russian armed forces are currently conducting a pincer maneuver in southern Ukraine, which will lead to the encirclement and capture of around 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers in a few days.
Yes barring any major shift in their favor the Russians are winning.
And any resistance will be met the same way it was in Chechnya.
200,000 murdered. Another 300,000 displaced.
Why, because that is how the “humanitarian” Russians do things.
Ukraine was right to resist. They are right to continue resisting.
Q:
I am not arguing that the Russians cannot nor will not be successful in what they think they need to accomplish.
But at what long term cost?
All potentials exist as the fog of war continues.
ITS A LOCK
What’s a lock?
Hunter Biden will apparently at some point in the not-too-distant future IMO based on what has been forced in the media to be reported will be indicted?
Biden family scheme unravels (nypost.com)
Why has the New York Times and those on the Left been forced to recognize that the Hunter Biden “Computer From Hell” was real and not Russian disinformation? Because there is apparently a sitting grand jury in Washington DC and they are examining it all.
“It is not just the emails and other material on Hunter’s abandoned laptop that point to Joe Biden’s involvement in his family’s multimillion-dollar global influence-peddling schemes when he was vice president.”
Right up the Communist Chinese alley. If true, they would rather buy you than fight you.
So the Liberal / Leftist Media are being forced to report the truth and must attempt to save some credibility on the subject. I think that is clear.
Not aware of any of this? You have been in a medically induced coma for the last 2 years? What do you think?
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR.9b77f97a411ca68cdcd6c4a70358ecb0%3Frik%3DEtERoyY3dRks4g%26riu%3Dhttp%253a%252f%252fwww.floppingaces.net%252fwp-content%252fuploads%252f2020%252f12%252fScreenshot_20201216-155212_DuckDuckGo-1024×540.jpg%26ehk%3DoxeRAGNgH39l%252fJZjxa%252fqwFAmI3nKiy%252bpqEarIorb2Ws%253d%26risl%3D%26pid%3DImgRaw%26r%3D0&t=1649699663&ymreqid=dc7face7-d905-7706-2f2c-5a0320015100&sig=afo2m6gvuIuuBFFwgLPasA–~D