This NASA bill is nothing more than pork
A sampling of headlines today, describing the passage last night in the House of the NASA authorization bill:
- Budget Deal Propels NASA on New Path (Wall Street Journal)
- Congress backs Obama plan on NASA’s future (Washington Post)
- Congress Approves Bill for NASA’s New Space Plan (space.com)
- House approves bill setting NASA’s new course (MSNBC.com)
- House OKs new course for manned spaceflight (Houston Chronicle)
- New NASA policy: House passes bill to change direction for space agency (Orlando Sentinel)
Unfortunately, none of these headlines are correct. All of them are examples of what I call “press release journalism”, where the press writes its stories based on what elected officials and public relations people tell them, rather than what’s in the bill itself.
Though the bill that passed last night does authorize significant additional funds for the subsidized development of new private rockets, it unfortunately does not send NASA on a “new path” or “new policy.”
First and foremost, the plan very specifically requires NASA to build a spacecraft and launch capability very similar to what was being built under Constellation. To quote:
It is the policy of the United States that NASA develop a Space Launch System as a follow-on to the Space Shuttle that can access cis-lunar space and the regions of space beyond low-Earth orbit in order to enable the United States to participate in global efforts to access and develop this increasingly strategic region.
This system is to have a launch capability of no less than 130 tons, which would exceed the Saturn V and is about what was planned for Ares V.
The Administrator shall continue the development of a multi-purpose crew vehicle to be available as soon as practicable, and no later than for use with the Space Launch System. The vehicle shall continue to advance development of the human safety features, designs, and systems in the Orion project.
This essentially means that Orion, as designed under Constellation, will go on.
Thus, the only real changes to Constellation the bill provides are less money, a faster timetable (finished by the end of 2016) and the freedom to pick a new name for the system, so as to not embarass the current administration with a Bush space rocket.
Of course, NASA has the freedom to redesign Constellation, but given the short time schedule and limited budgets, I wonder if that will be possible. (There are those who think this is a victory for the Direct approach, whereby the new launch system is almost entirely based on the shuttle system, but even that concept is probably not doable, given the money and time frame.)
Thus, has anything at NASA actually changed? I don’t think so. In the end, what we are going to get from this new plan is the same failures we’ve gotten from NASA in its repeated efforts over the last twenty-five years to build a shuttle follow-on. To quote a column I wrote for USAToday back in 2004:
- The National Aerospace Plane was proposed by President Reagan in 1986 during his State of the Union address. This cutting-edge technology, Reagan proclaimed, would “by the end of the decade take off from Dulles Airport, accelerate up to 25 times the speed of sound, attaining low-Earth orbit, or fly to Tokyo within two hours.” After spending $1.7 billion, and building nothing, the program was canceled in 1992.
- The X-33 was announced with much fanfare by Vice President Al Gore on July 4, 1996. The program was going to produce a single-stage-to-orbit reusable spacecraft. “This is the craft that can carry America’s dreams aloft and launch our nation into a sparkling new century,” Gore enthused. After five years and $1.2 billion, the X-33 was canceled when cracks were found in the spacecraft’s experimental fuel tanks.
- During the same years as the X-33, NASA pursued the X-34, a smaller two-stage reusable rocket launched from a belly of a L-1011 jet, and the X-38, a reusable lifeboat for the International Space Station. After four years, more than $1 billion but little hardware production, both were scrubbed. [Note that the X-37 did come back to life under the auspices of the Air Force, who saw its value if NASA did not.]
- In 2000, even as the previous projects were being put to the torch, NASA came up with another program, the Space Launch Initiative. For two years, the agency spent $800 million drawing blueprints for a plethora of proposed shuttle replacements. Nothing was built. In 2002, the Space Launch Initiative was scrapped like the rest.
In every case, NASA came up with plans that could not be built for the money available. Now, Congress has ordered NASA to build an updated Saturn V rocket, practically overnight and without sufficient funds. And it has asked this to be done by an administration that is uninterested in doing it, and has even shown a willingness to sabotage this project, when it can.
The result? I do expect NASA to spend all the money that Congress is giving them, passing it out to various aerospace companies, as it has done for the last few decades. Whether anything will get accomplished with all that spending, however, is very doubtful.
In other words, the bill passed last night is nothing more than the worst form of pork. At least with most pork projects, a new school or a better road system is built. Here, the taxpayer will spend a lot of money, and get very little for it.
The one glimmer of hope is the money authorized to subsidize the development of new private space rockets. Unfortunately, the bill requires NASA to strictly supervise the construction of these new rockets, to make sure they meet NASA’s safety standards and government rules. Such supervision cannot encourage the kind of innovation and creativity necessary to produce new rockets cheaply and efficiently.
Fortunately, the increasing demand for new and inexpensive launch services is going to counter this governmental interference. SpaceX’s amazing success with its Falcon rockets is evidence of this increased demand. So is the fact that Boeing has decided to dive into this market with its own manned spaceship. With increased demand comes increased profit, which — far more than government subsidizes — will pay for the new rockets.
Still, on the government side I suspect the end result of NASA’s new commercial development program will once again be a lot of money wasted. The new rockets will get built, but the American taxpayer is going to get screwed in the process.
Personally, if I had my druthers I would get the U.S. government entirely out of the civilian rocket building business. Let the private companies finance and build their rockets themselves (as SpaceX did with the Falcon 1), and when completed, let NASA then buy the services. The less say the government has in the design and construction of these rockets, the better.
Unfortunately, this fantasy is not going to happen. Instead, I expect the American space program to limp along for the next decade or so, dependent on the Russians (and eventually the Chinese) to get its astronauts to its own space station.
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I agree, and what if in 2016 when there is no HLV and its billions of dollars over budget? Will there then be a big hue and cry that those nasty private firms are not safe and we need a lot of new safety regulations so as to make it impossible to put anything in orbit. Or will they do that in the beginning before the private firm can embarrass them with cheaper rates. I guess I`ve come to mistrust these people after all their wrangling. Who really runs the USA: the president, the senate, the congress, or ATK? I thought it was scientists and engineers who were supposed decide what kind of vehicle we need to put what they want in space.
The commercial crew initiative isn’t about rockets, it’s about crewed spacecraft for existing rockets, the Falcon 9, the Atlas 5.
1- they didn’t vote on appropriating any money for this new “direction”.
2- it is good they did the blindingly obvious and kill Ares-1, but yes otherwise Constellations still ontrack. It COULD be built within the money designated – but that would require NASA to streamline its organization and oversight. Even where they legally could, they won’t. Especially building a Constellation system they want to kill.
3- at best it is just pork thrown to industry to keep it from going out of business.
Now not having the aerospace industry related to space exploration go out of business is a good thing; but we’ve still just gutted the space program and are just arguing about what remnants of the old NASA and space exploration related industry, to maintain. Were not talking about any new path – or even any old path. We’re not going anywhere.
4- NASA had or was offered several very technically doable, very good, successors to the shuttles, even obvious upgrades to the shuttles to correct their faults and cost issues. All these proposals failed due to a couple critical flaws. The biggest was they would DRAMATICALLY lower launch costs and overhead requirements. That was politically nonsensical, and utterly unacceptable, since it would cause layoffs in districts.
5- the glimmer of hope because of money to “..subsidize the development of new private space rockets.” Is really still more pork, its just going to different companies. Alt.spacers like those companies more then the bigger older companies – but its still pork when it goes to your friends. It is not buying a ticket to space no a new-space spaceline.
6- I’m going nuts over all the nonsense about how cool and innovative these new companies will be, and how much they will advance us in space. If old companies were given contractual and oversight streamlining, they could do far more with far less. If the new-space companies operate under the old rules, they will only be able to do far less then now with the same amount of money. its a fantasy of new-spacers that old space was to stupid and inefficient to do anything. Really old space is far more innovative and capable, but they also know the rules of the game.
> Gary Warburton says:
>Posted September 30, 2010 at 1:27 PM
>==Who really runs the USA: the president, the senate, the congress, or ATK? I thought it was scientists
> and engineers who were supposed decide what kind of vehicle we need to put what they want in space.
NASA’s civile service buracacy runs it, but they must respond to the political needs of congressman adn such ni their districts.
Why the hell did you think “..scientists and engineers..” run NASA?!!
Support for this bill is nothing more than relief that someone finally found something to agree on.