A review of the last half century of major ice calving events in Antarctica detects no trend
Click for original image.
The uncertainty of science: A review by scientists of major ice calving events in Antarctica that have occurred in the last 47 years has detected absolutely no trend either up or down, despite decades of predictions that human caused global warming would cause huge sections of the icecap to break off and catastrophically change the Earth’s climate.
The graph to the right comes from figure 4 of the paper, and illustrates the lack of trend. Note how the actual observations, the blue dots, show no increase in large calving events. From the abstract:
We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.
The researchers of course genuflect to human-caused global warming in their conclusion by stating that the shrinkage predicted in the Antarctic ice cap (but not yet seen in any significant amount) could instead be occurring due to an increase in small calving events.
The lack of an upward trend in annual maximum iceberg area could be attributed to an overall increase in the number of smaller calving events, which may inhibit the development of extremely large calving events. As such, small calving events pose the greatest threat to the current stability of Antarctic ice shelves.
Since there is no detailed or reliable data of the number of smaller calving events, this hypothesis is entirely made up, and carries no weight. It is simply a fantasy created to maintain the fiction of global warming. A more open-minded look at these results would say that the larger events provide an excellent guide to the overall trend, and that the icecap simply isn’t shrinking as predicted.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Click for original image.
The uncertainty of science: A review by scientists of major ice calving events in Antarctica that have occurred in the last 47 years has detected absolutely no trend either up or down, despite decades of predictions that human caused global warming would cause huge sections of the icecap to break off and catastrophically change the Earth’s climate.
The graph to the right comes from figure 4 of the paper, and illustrates the lack of trend. Note how the actual observations, the blue dots, show no increase in large calving events. From the abstract:
We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.
The researchers of course genuflect to human-caused global warming in their conclusion by stating that the shrinkage predicted in the Antarctic ice cap (but not yet seen in any significant amount) could instead be occurring due to an increase in small calving events.
The lack of an upward trend in annual maximum iceberg area could be attributed to an overall increase in the number of smaller calving events, which may inhibit the development of extremely large calving events. As such, small calving events pose the greatest threat to the current stability of Antarctic ice shelves.
Since there is no detailed or reliable data of the number of smaller calving events, this hypothesis is entirely made up, and carries no weight. It is simply a fantasy created to maintain the fiction of global warming. A more open-minded look at these results would say that the larger events provide an excellent guide to the overall trend, and that the icecap simply isn’t shrinking as predicted.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
wikipedia is a bit unclear as to whether the entire Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking or not. I assume that means the Antarctic is not losing ice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_ice_sheet
but they do say Artic sea ice has declined by 50% since the first satellite images.
“… The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty-first century, with a decline rate of 4.7% per decade (it has declined over 50% since the first satellite records) …”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#:~:text=Global%20warming%2C%20caused%20by%20greenhouse,since%20the%20first%20satellite%20records).
NY Times had an alarming article this week on artic tundra wildfires.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/climate/arctic-emissions-carbon-ice-warming.html
There is no giant thermostat in the sky which says it has to be 300 parts per million of CO2, or whatever.
Greens are bent on the idea that we just have to go back to pre-industrial levels–like when the Thames froze over.
No thanks.
I seem to remember -perhaps on BtB an article discussing an old National Geographic map showing much less ice at the arctic circle than there is today.
I seem to remember an article – perhaps on BtB – that showed an older National Geographic map with much less arctic ice than today.
“The lack of an upward trend in annual maximum iceberg area could be [hypothesis] attributed to an overall increase in the number of smaller calving events, which may [hypothesis] inhibit the development of extremely large calving events. As such, small calving events pose [declarative statement] the greatest threat to the current stability of Antarctic ice shelves.”
As Tim Allen would say: “Hunhh?!”
The common term for “small ice calving events” is called “melting”… Antarctica is a large continent with 3 miles of ice on top of it. The worlds largest glacier system flowing to where? The South pacific ocean we’re hundreds of feet thick ice slides into the ocean. When enough of the ice flow extends into the bottom of the ocean where it eventually begins to float, the melting accelerates but the ice is thick and will extend for miles before a large section will break off. Meanwhile the calving (melting) occurs constantly because pacific water is warm.
The graph above confirms what observations have been telling people all my life. Thank you for posting this.
As for the arctic, the only glacier systems flowing into the Arctic sea is off of Greenland. The rest of the Arctic is covered in ice seasonally and melts seasonally. It’s average winter time thickness every year is 3 to 9 feet thick. (The movies of submarines coming up through the ice is a good illustration of how thin it is)
When I lived above the Arctic Circle, I experienced 24 hour sunlight keeping the temperatures between 60 and 80° all summer. All the snow melted and ran to the rivers because of the permafrost, everything else was just a muddy mess with lots of mosquitoes.
Pilot whales live in the Arctic year around, they need air to breathe which indicates that the Arctic is never completely frozen over… Not ever.
It’s the loss of all the cute cuddly polar bears like Al Gore said that breaks my heart. Without the Antarctic ice the poor guys stood no chance. But now that I think about it, they were white so I guess they had it coming.
John, Polar bears are not native to the Antarctic and there are no penguins in the Arctic
The ice in the arctic circle is already afloat. Glaciers calving off Greenland and Antarctica is what is scaring folks.
I wish China would abandon Silk Road II through Islamic countries and build oil derrick towers beneath the waves so as to have a Drake passage route. Transport that ice to where fresh water is needed.
Okay, if you melt Arctic Sea ice, do you get salt water or fresh water? If it is salt water, what do Polar Bears drink? If it is fresh water… how?
Awwww, so the climate change killed all the penguins in the Arctic too. So sad, they were only part white. Poor bastards.