An update on the new virus outbreak originating from China
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Link here. The numbers of people so far infected is hardly gigantic, less than 450 worldwide, with almost all confined to one province in China.
You can also find out some general information about this particular virus as well as other related viruses, such as SARS and MERS, in this separate article. All are far less threatening that press reports make them appear. For example, SARS only infected 8,000 people total, killing a little less than 10% of those infected.
This new virus appears so far to be even less deadly, with nine deaths total, about 5%.
While under no condition should this outbreak be ignored or poo-pooed, it is very important to recognize that, at least so far, it is hardly an epidemic that will wipe out civilization. This could change with time, but I doubt it.
My annual birthday-month fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now on-going. Not only do your donations help pay my bills, they give me the freedom to speak honestly about science and culture, instead of being forced to write it as others demand.
Please consider donating by giving either a one-time contribution or a regular subscription, as outlined in the tip jar below.
Regular readers can support Behind The Black with a contribution via paypal:
If Paypal doesn't work for you, you can support Behind The Black directly by sending your donation by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman, to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Link here. The numbers of people so far infected is hardly gigantic, less than 450 worldwide, with almost all confined to one province in China.
You can also find out some general information about this particular virus as well as other related viruses, such as SARS and MERS, in this separate article. All are far less threatening that press reports make them appear. For example, SARS only infected 8,000 people total, killing a little less than 10% of those infected.
This new virus appears so far to be even less deadly, with nine deaths total, about 5%.
While under no condition should this outbreak be ignored or poo-pooed, it is very important to recognize that, at least so far, it is hardly an epidemic that will wipe out civilization. This could change with time, but I doubt it.
The early detection and actions to contain it are quite impressive. Good work by those charged with the task.
Gordon Chang saying that the reporting is inaccurate. Cremation before diagnosis and misreporting of diagnosis. Hardly surprising the communists would do so.
Worth watching: (I was in Wuhan last year !)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI&feature=em-uploademail
The coronavirus in China is spreading, and largely could have been prevented. A town 7 km from where the virus was discovered in Wuhan had a state run banquet with 100,000 people eating off of the same dishes. This was 2 days after 49 cases were confirmed in Wuhan, China. The Chinese government is trying to save face, and now it is backfiring.
It’s way too early to make statements about its reach and impact. It still can mutate (multiple times). Which can change everything. Different incubation times, indicators (symptoms), lethality. Makes it harder to create new antidotes and mass produce them. Might require different containment and treatment policies and infrastructures. Most outbreaks produce less fatalities than the seasonal influenza, but we shouldn’t underestimate them. We need to be right every time, the outbreak needs to be right only once.
Bigger issue than originally thought. There are reports of mutation, and late containment efforts.
Perhaps a lower mortality rate, but a faster rate of transmission, or greater level of contagion (if that is the right word for this).
The result can be a higher actual death toll, even if the disease itself is less dangerous individually , due to a wider outbreak.