Durable goods orders fall 4% in January, the worst drop in three years and four times what was expected.


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The Obama recovery: Durable goods orders fell 4% in January, the worst drop in three years and four times more than expected.

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5 comments

  • Jim

    Meaningless report.
    When durable goods increased 3.2% in December, no note then?
    And as Bloomberg reports, that decrease always happens at the beginning of the quarter.
    “Last month’s decrease in capital goods orders extends a pattern of declines early in a quarter that are typically reversed later. Demand for non-military capital goods like computers, engines and communications gear have dropped in the first month of a quarter in all but three instances since the end of 2005. ”
    Yes, thats been the pattern since the last Republican President.
    So, when there are increases in durable goods, like for the previous 3 months, that is not a sign of the Obama recovery, but when there is a decrease it is?

  • Garry

    If you want to read a positive spin on all things Obama, there are plenty of mainstream media outlets willing to oblige. Your comments have some validity; time will tell how much validity. It’s certainly worthy of comment when a leading indicator (meaning an indicator that is among the first to show a trend) experiences “the worst drop in three years and four times more than expected.”

    I certainly hope the recovery is for real, but many things tell me otherwise. No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, when there are 2 million fewer members of the workforce than there were 3 years ago, it doesn’t look good.

    Don’t get me started on unemployment numbers. As an entrepreneur, if I close up shop tomorrow (something I’ve come very close to many times), I can’t claim unemployment benefits and won’t show up in any unemplyment stats. Yet, small businesses are the engine of growth. Saw a headline the other day that a record 50% of people now work for large companies; how many entrepreneurs have called it quits, and where are the new jobs going to come from? Keep in mind that we not only have a shortfall of 2 million workers as compared to 3 years ago, but the population is much larger.

    Where is growth going to come from? Without growth, where is all the money for benefits going to come from?

    I don’t blame Obama for the whole mess the economy is in, but I don’t see what he’s done to make it better, or that it is in fact recovering in any meaningful way.

  • Jim

    Garry-
    Well you and I have something in common. I too started my own business 20 years ago…still at it. The last few years have been trying to say the least.
    But for what its worth, I have seen things getting better. Job market is still tough indeed, but I and my clients all see things improving. But its a slow improvement. You say maybe not meaningful, but I say from where we came from, very meaningful. How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.
    My only point is that it is easy to read statistics and reports selectively. That decrease in durable goods was the first in 4 months. And as Bloomberg says, it has often been decreasing in the first month of the quarter.
    But the proof is in the pudding. If next month durable goods orders increase, will it be reported here (or on HotAir) as indicative of an improving economy? Not a chance. That is what I mean by selectivity. There are plenty of things to complain about…this was not one of them.

  • Jim wrote: “If next month durable goods orders increase, will it be reported here (or on HotAir) as indicative of an improving economy? Not a chance.”

    You know, I find this kind of statement particularly offensive, especially since I have been quite willing to allow you to post here as often and in as much detail as you like, even when you are trying to prove me wrong (which is most of the time).

    How the hell do you know what I will report, on any subject, in the future? Of course you don’t, and because you don’t, you should show a little grace and refrain from putting words in my mouth.

  • Jim

    Fair enough. At the end of the day, I never like it when I get people angry. But it happens. Accept my apologies. I will try to show more grace in the future.

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