El Niño has finally arrived, far weaker than predicted
The uncertainty of science: The periodic warm weather pattern called El Niño has finally arrived in the mid-equatorial Pacific Ocean, more than a year late and far weaker than predicted by scientists.
The announcement comes a year after forecasters first predicted that a major El Niño could be in the works. At the time, NOAA predicted a 50% chance that an El Niño could develop in the latter half of 2014. The agency also said the wind patterns that were driving water east across the Pacific were similar to those that occurred in the months leading up to the epic El Niño of 1997, which caught scientists by surprise and contributed to flooding, droughts and fires across multiple continents.
In the end, last year’s forecasts came up short, in part because the winds that were driving the system petered out. Researchers, who have been working to improve their forecasting models since 1997, are trying to figure out precisely what happened last year and why their models failed to capture it.
But remember, these same climate scientists are absolutely sure that their climate models can predict the temperature rise of the climate to within a degree one century hence. Yet, they have no idea why this El Niño turned out weak and late, even though it exhibited the same early features as the epic 1997 El Niño.
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The uncertainty of science: The periodic warm weather pattern called El Niño has finally arrived in the mid-equatorial Pacific Ocean, more than a year late and far weaker than predicted by scientists.
The announcement comes a year after forecasters first predicted that a major El Niño could be in the works. At the time, NOAA predicted a 50% chance that an El Niño could develop in the latter half of 2014. The agency also said the wind patterns that were driving water east across the Pacific were similar to those that occurred in the months leading up to the epic El Niño of 1997, which caught scientists by surprise and contributed to flooding, droughts and fires across multiple continents.
In the end, last year’s forecasts came up short, in part because the winds that were driving the system petered out. Researchers, who have been working to improve their forecasting models since 1997, are trying to figure out precisely what happened last year and why their models failed to capture it.
But remember, these same climate scientists are absolutely sure that their climate models can predict the temperature rise of the climate to within a degree one century hence. Yet, they have no idea why this El Niño turned out weak and late, even though it exhibited the same early features as the epic 1997 El Niño.
Please consider donating to Behind the Black, by giving either a one-time contribution or a regular subscription, as outlined in the tip jar below. Your support will allow me to continue covering science and culture as I have for the past twenty years, independent and free from any outside influence.
Regular readers can support Behind The Black with a contribution via paypal:
If Paypal doesn't work for you, you can support Behind The Black directly by sending your donation by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman, to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
Choose a prediction:
1. http://dailycaller.com/2015/03/05/new-york-city-global-warming/
2.. http://newsbusters.org/blogs/julia-seymour/2015/03/05/and-thats-way-it-was-1972-cronkite-warned-new-ice-age
Of course the new models are based on more refined analysis and scientific data. I was listening this morning to these gentleman http://www.wnyc.org/story/future-now/ .
Human beings are apparently actually changing the physical structure of the earth to humanity’s detriment. I believe the earths crust is aprox. 35 miles thick with a total diameter of aprox. 8000 miles and human ability to regularly invade that space is about 1.5 miles?
The imagery that is being created imparts much much more power of humans than physics and current technology would indicate IMO.
I am in no way saying that humanity should not clean up pollution and other offensive activities on the planet but this power that is being created in the minds of the public is just not realistic but it sounds like it intuitively makes sense.
“leading up to the epic El Niño of 1997,”
Which tracks nicely with the rise of AGW alarmism. Weather isn’t climate except for when it is needed to be. They desperately need El Nino to show up so they can claim that the world is ending.
News Flash:
Climate scientists tell us their predictions are so accurate they can even predictl what shape clouds will take over your region such as: giant bunnies, cotton balls etc..
It must be true because they are scientists, don’t ya know.