Experts now admit COVID-19 mortality rate much lower then predicted
According to Dr. Deborah Birx, the U.S. coronavirus response coordinator, the experts who initially claimed that the Wuhan flu was far more deadly than the flu were wrong, and that the death rate appears far less, closer to that of a typical flu.
“I think we underestimated very early on the number of asymptomatic cases,” Dr. Birx said. “And I think we’re really beginning to understand there are people that get infected that those symptoms are so low-grade that they don’t even know that they’re infected.”
Dr. Birx added that many of those dying from coronavirus have other diseases, such as heart disease or problems with their immune systems. “[W]e’re seeing the majority of the people that we’re losing to this disease have those other diseases that you just described,” she said. “And so, I do believe that a lot of the diseases we’re seeing in the hospital right now, yes, they may have preexisting conditions but those preexisting conditions are resulting in them having a much more serious course when they’re infected with this virus.”
In other words, the best way to defeat this virus is to get a lot of young and healthy people infected so they can develop antibodies. Those antibodies then do the job a vaccine might do, squelch the disease, and do it far faster and with almost no cost.
This article provides the evidence for Birx’s statement, outlining the five studies so far that have all confirmed the Wuhan flu death rate to be less than 1%, with four finding the rate exactly comparable to that of the ordinary flu.
I must note, with some anger, that from the very beginning, as soon as we began to collect reliable data outside of China, it was clear that this was where the data was taking us. Did any of our elected politicians or mainstream press do anything to note this fact and thus ease the panic? No. Instead, they went out of their way to pour gasoline on the fire, for their own evil and power-hungry ends.
Americans have got to stop obeying these people, or follow any of their advice. They are taking us down the road to hell.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
According to Dr. Deborah Birx, the U.S. coronavirus response coordinator, the experts who initially claimed that the Wuhan flu was far more deadly than the flu were wrong, and that the death rate appears far less, closer to that of a typical flu.
“I think we underestimated very early on the number of asymptomatic cases,” Dr. Birx said. “And I think we’re really beginning to understand there are people that get infected that those symptoms are so low-grade that they don’t even know that they’re infected.”
Dr. Birx added that many of those dying from coronavirus have other diseases, such as heart disease or problems with their immune systems. “[W]e’re seeing the majority of the people that we’re losing to this disease have those other diseases that you just described,” she said. “And so, I do believe that a lot of the diseases we’re seeing in the hospital right now, yes, they may have preexisting conditions but those preexisting conditions are resulting in them having a much more serious course when they’re infected with this virus.”
In other words, the best way to defeat this virus is to get a lot of young and healthy people infected so they can develop antibodies. Those antibodies then do the job a vaccine might do, squelch the disease, and do it far faster and with almost no cost.
This article provides the evidence for Birx’s statement, outlining the five studies so far that have all confirmed the Wuhan flu death rate to be less than 1%, with four finding the rate exactly comparable to that of the ordinary flu.
I must note, with some anger, that from the very beginning, as soon as we began to collect reliable data outside of China, it was clear that this was where the data was taking us. Did any of our elected politicians or mainstream press do anything to note this fact and thus ease the panic? No. Instead, they went out of their way to pour gasoline on the fire, for their own evil and power-hungry ends.
Americans have got to stop obeying these people, or follow any of their advice. They are taking us down the road to hell.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
We have the power to fire them all. It is called an election. They all need to go.
Joe,
90%+ reelection rate for incumbents running for re-election.
Ain’t gonna happen.
In conversation with my doctor back on 03FEB20 I stated my opinion: When this virus gets to a country (like ours) with a 1st world medical capability the mortality rate would drop to flu-like levels. She was in agreement with me and thought the reaction to the Communist Chinese Party Virus was way overblown.
In other words?
No, Birx didn’t mention convalescent plasma therapy, so that’s not an “in other words” of her comments.
Of the 5 studies mentioned in the PJ Media article only the NY anti-body study and the Lancet study are respectable and they both have fatality rates significantly above the flu at 0.72% and 0.66%. Multiply those numbers by the far higher infection rates Covid has compared to the flu and you still get to about 1.5 million deaths were covid left to run unchecked until herd immunity is reached in the US.
Joe, who should be elected to replace anti-Georgia-opening, anti-Sweden-plan, Mr. Lockdown-in-Chief, Donald Trump? Is it too late to instigate a party revolt prior to the nomination? Do we need to draft someone for an independent or third party run? Justin Amash is vying for the Libertarian ticket. How about him?
Andrew, I didn’t read that as Bob recommending CVP so much as herd immunity via infection and recovery (and lets hope that works and we don’t instead have antibody-dependent enhancement).
But yeah, I agree with your second point. I suppose it comes down to a choice of the measure of closeness, but I am still surprised to see people considering 7X comparable “because it is only another +0.5%.”
I do advocate that course, but we shouldn’t kid ourselves about the cost — just as we shouldn’t kid ourselves about the economic consequences of a year-long lockdown.
I don’t expect to see starvation in the US (in the short term, at least) over this, but I do expect that looking back a couple years out, we will have seen more deaths from war, famine, and other disease (particularly in Africa) as a result of world-wide economic collapse, than from covid-19 directly. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
Rose, rereading Mr. Zimmerman’s comment I think you’re right about him just advocating for herd immunity.
The numbers for the US are very flat at the moment, at about 2000 deaths a day, at 0.7% fatality rate that suggests around 285,000 new infections a day, which would mean something like 2.5 years to herd immunity at that rate, if you want to cut that down to say another 2 months (how long can you reasonably keep the elderly physically separated from the rest of the population?) daily infection rates would need to go to about 4.3 million, daily deaths would increase, but hard to say by how much as that would depend on the nature of the screening (age vs other ailments) of those being partitioned from society.
The difficulty of getting a coherent course of action in the US remains; there’s no will across the political spectrum to reach an agreement on either effective social distancing or on far faster spread of the disease with the goal of quicker herd immunity, so it’s turned into an opportunity for the most partisan to play the blame game, unable to recognise their own culpability.
I agree with your math. But I also think the lack of a precipitous drop seven weeks into lockdown shows that, while it has a limiting effect, it isn’t the path to eradication for us that it was for you. Blame that on the early stronghold of infections, on too big a population to properly implement testing and tracing, or just on our inherent orneriness, but I don’t see it happening.
Regarding US prospects for a coherent course of action, you are dead on. We will just muddle on, doing neither one thing nor the other.
Yup Rose we will muddle on. What a shame. What we really need is one ruler, a strong man, someone to impose the right course of action on everyone. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Who needs this idea of freedom and allowing people to follow what they in their ignorance think is the best course of action, for them.
No, we need that strong ruler. And since Trump obviously ain’t strong enough, letting the states decide, we need to find someone more willful, more determined, more brutal, and certainly more willing to clamp down when others object.
Otherwise, we will just muddle along, and this virus will spread.
As if it won’t anyway.
And for those who can’t read carefully, I am being very very very harshly sarcastic.
Looking on the global scale there are distinct regional trends; East Asia, Europe, Oceania and some Middle East/North African countries are driving infections down, in Sub Sahara Africa, North and South America, and the Sub-Continent numbers continue to rise. It’ll be a strange world in which half the planet has eliminated it (with modern tech I think that’ll turn into the goal) with the other half of the world accepting natural herd immunity.
We won’t be on the same travelers planet until a vaccine arrives. SMH.
There’s a certain charm about how some minds around here work, always trying to bend reality to fit yearnings.
Michigan security guard shot and killed after asking Family Dollar shopper to wear a mask
* https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/michigan-security-guard-shot-and-killed-after-asking-family-dollar-shopper-to-wear-a-mask
Extremism in defense of liberty? Or just revenge for perceived disrespect, after all, an armed society is a polite society. Then again, maybe it was the water.
I have made some comments before that some have not got the drift.
Let me be blunt!
President Trump had no choice but to overreact due to the pressures from the dimocrats and their media because they would jump down his throat. They do anyway, but his actions, I believe, have been reasonably restrained.
Here is a big problem and one which surely will wrangle some: Should scientists make policy? I say absolutely not. We have been trained in specific subjects. Yes, we tend to be bright people but, the higher the degree, the more is known of less and less.
Should term limits be put on politicians? NO. Whenever a new government comes in, the stupid mistakes are grievous. I would not hire someone without experience to run a company or manage my employees. Reading Dick Cheny’s book “In My Time” his past experience over several years prepared him for the VP job. He still made new guy mistakes but he learned.
Now, we know there is a problem with politician corruption. That problem needs to be dealt with. Many in the dimocrat party have broken the law and need prosecution big time. People are smart enough to find ways to deal with the corruption. Can anyone imagine a new slate of congress all like AOC or others in the squad. That is what would happen if there were term limits.
Part of the problems in the US and Canada (which I have a front row seat) is that government workers are making the rules. It seems impossible for them to think rationally about the whole picture, being caught in CMB thinking. One of my pet peeves is government related logins require a password change every three months. Banks do not but maybe, for some, once per year or less: with no security issues.
We need to get back to risk taking and personal responsibilities. People like to take risks. Without such, there would be caves unexplored and mountains unclimbed, two thing I enjoy very much.
I was expecting an upwards revision on this site, but such a jump is a bit of a surprise, but I don’t think unrealistic.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
From 74,000 to 134,500.
Phill O, not only should Doctors NOT make policy, Congress and the administration should be the sole policymakers. Not unelected bureaucrats whom Congress has given the power to, but ONLY Congress and the administration, and by administration I mean cabinet members who have been nominated with the advice and consent of the Senate.
That IHME model doesn’t even take into account expected changes in social restrictions. So unlike the leaked CDC projections in the news today, IHME is showing a slow but steady rate decrease. The bump in the projected total is just coming from a longer, thicker tail than they had earlier predicted.
What do you make to the Deaths per day plot? Clearly they are smoothing the reported portion of the graph — a 7 day running average makes sense, though a sophisticated algorithm could be more responsive while still accounting for the day-of-week reporting effects. But they’ve got a ~2K/day local min on 26 April, then climb to a absolute max of 2.35K/day by 1 May. I’ve not seen anything in the data sets to suggest such a climb, have you? The projections starts from there immediately decreasing, leaving behind what looks like a cusp. It is almost as if it was forced to swallow that same anomaly we saw in the 1 May US SitRep. Strange.
Anyhow, here is a 22 April interview of Chris Murray, the IMHE model’s creator, where he discusses the inner workings of his model with political and sports modeler Nate Silver.
* https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-one-modeler-is-trying-to-forecast-the-toll-of-covid-19/
I enjoyed it and plan to listen to it again as my attention was divided the first time. My takes from the first pass:
* IMHE model internals — relies much more on fitting and less on internal assumptions (priors) than Silver’s political models.
* Dirty input data — discussed having to unroll the 1-day chunk of NYC probably deaths over the days they likely occurred to avoid perturbing the model.
* Concerns over how much of the excess mortality is not directly due to covid, but instead from our response to covid (such as deferred medical care).
* An early 100K – 240K projection from Boy-Wonder-in-law was misattributed to IMHE, and he seemed insulted than anything sloppy enough to not even label the time axis scale would be attributed to his group.
* They’ve projected CFR patterns from age specific data onto the Diamond Princess set to come up with IFR projections ranging from about 5% for age 85 to 0.02% for < age 35. I've the sense they haven't publicly released the full projection, but he didn't say so explicitly. I'd sure love to see it!
* Updates to the model up through then yielded only small changes in predictions.
Rose asked;
“Do we need to draft someone for an independent or third party run? Justin Amash is vying for the Libertarian ticket. How about him?”
He had a conversion, saw the light, now claims to be a libertarian, constitutional conservative.
He is none of those, he voted for the impeachment of Trump with no evidence or proof of wrongdoing. That makes him lying politician devious scoundrel, nothing more than an opportunist because Joe Biden is weak, and he sees a way to get money from billionaires for doing nothing more then stirring the pot, if he’s convincing enough he may take a few conservative votes giving Biden a chance. Despite The many accusations of sexual misconduct, the selling of classified technology to China, and the taking of money from Ukraine after making sure their attorney general was fired in a quick Pro quo.
We all know the opposition to trump is desperate, the illegal methods and false testimony or accelerating against him and they’re ready to take it to the next level.
I never truly trust these government spokesman doctors.
They got their position by knowing someone more than knowing something.
And having a government doctor making policy is only good for the feelings of the people. Doctors could recommend but someone else should make the policy.
Doctors have a lifetime of covering their own butts when treating every single patient or they get sued. Even if they don’t think anything will help they will recommend everything just to make the patient feel safer and that old CMA policy.
Can you imagine some government elected official or a medical representative saying something like
“Well there is nothing anyone can do about this, so we recommend trying to stay away from other people. Give yourself a safe 6 foot space. And of course protect our sick and elderly, try to keep away from them until we get a vaccine.
But just keep going to work and act as normal as possible.”
They would have been ran out of town on a rail.
I have learned to never demand more than I am willing to pay for in some way.
We are now paying for the safe feelings and security our citizens demanded in the beginning. We need a dad to step in. mom has coddled us long enough.
Phill O wrote: “President Trump had no choice but to overreact due to the pressures from the dimocrats and their media because they would jump down his throat. They do anyway, but his actions, I believe, have been reasonably restrained.”
Wasn’t Trump elected because his voters thought he would not buckle to Democrat pressure but would do the right thing anyway? He stopped travel from high-risk areas and put up with Democrat pressure. But when it came to destroying our economy, liberty, and healthcare system he finally bows to their pressure?
Edward – Point well taken! Your other posts also display rational thought and insight.
I remember some things about President Regan. One in particular; he got criticized by some for bending on some things and made the comment that if bending meant he got %75 of what he wanted, it was far better than not bending and getting %25.
My personal opinion of President Trump is that he is an extremely good strategist, knowing which battles to fight. That does not mean I want to be friends with the guy, but I do respect his abilities in public opinion.
Max – “We all know the opposition to trump is desperate, the illegal methods and false testimony or accelerating against him and they’re ready to take it to the next level.” ABSOLUTELY!
pzatchok “I never truly trust these government spokesman doctors.” Me neither! Many love to stab in the back to get and keep the jobs! Guess that explains the leftist bent of government workers: I have trouble with it being a cause or an affect!
Max–
Good stuff.
Justin Amash, is an opportunistic Statist. (he gives Libertarians, a bad name)
pzatchok-
Good stuff.
RULE 1 – “Stand Up Straight With Your Shoulders Back”
Jordan Peterson (excerpted from the Jocko Willink interview)
https://youtu.be/RJe4m12sud0
11:09
Justin Amash, why is this nobody getting ANY play time in the media at all in the era of Trump?
Maybe he will team up with the likes of Joe Walsh (Another zero play delusional Libertarian) and really set the world on fire.
(All just a dopey distraction)
Or maybe Amash will make the move and draft governor William Weld to even out his possible campaign and bring some real gravitas to the game. Yeah, that might be the better power move.
(If Trump were to for some reason not be able to run NONE of these men would be on anyone’s top 100 list to replace him. A zero is a zero. So I ask the question again: Why the attention? IMO its all just the media attempting to agitate and some how muddy the waters as is their assigned task now in America and to keep the people confused and unfocused and unable to coalesce and exercise their power. Just an arm of the Democrat leadership for the most part)
A friend just sent this to me, and I naturally thought of Andrew W:
https://youtu.be/ObdyxIyU1sk
This Bill written exactly 1 year before the Covid 19 event????????
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/748
The Patriot Act was written and sitting in a draw also and dealt exactly with the events of 9-11, coincidence? Just good planning? The government in an Edgar Casey like move is just that good at predicting what WILL happen in the near future?
Information? Disinformation? Looks like Strategy to me.
Cotour,
Weld? Gravitas? Please tell me that’s sarcasm…
Here is a recent article for those who question President Trump’s bowing to public opinion. Note the this sheriff was forced to release some prisoners due to public opinion.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/jeff-reynolds/2020/05/05/rural-oregon-sheriff-announces-county-businesses-will-reopen-his-statement-is-glorious-n388183?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=onsite&utm_campaign=582
Phill O said;
“pzatchok “I never truly trust these government spokesman doctors.” Me neither! Many love to stab in the back to get and keep the jobs!”
Like the current director of the WHO organization not being a doctor? That they all seem to be saying the same thing basically getting the same talking points every day? Just like the media repeating the same phrase on the same day? Usually attacking Trump and covering for the liberals?
Isn’t it odd that the stimulus package for the media is a continual barrage of taxpayer funded infomercials. (I suppose something had to generate revenue stream now that the candidates for election have quit buying advertisements, particularly Bloomberg and his billions)
American oligarch Bill Gates is set to become the first trillionaire getting money from his computer business and owning the patents on viruses and the coming mandatory vaccinations which aren’t what they seem.
Congress is refusing to be tested, what do they know that we do not?
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/rare-unity-us-congress-refusing-trump-virus-tests-234204738.html
Cotour;
The virus was sent in 2015 to the newly opened Wuhan level 4 facility. Built by WHO, US, France and others. The first of “four” level 4 facilities. Why in China?
From the article;
“Lina says that China’s size justifies this scale, and that the opportunity to combine BSL-4 research with an abundance of research monkeys — “”Chinese researchers face less red tape than those in the West”” when it comes to research on primates — could be powerful. “If you want to test vaccines or antivirals, you need a non-human primate model,” says Lina.”
“But Ebright is not convinced of the need for more than one BSL-4 lab in mainland China. He suspects that the expansion there is a reaction to the networks in the United States and Europe, which he says are also unwarranted. He adds that governments will assume that such excess capacity is for the potential bio weapons development”
Are they concerned about building in China? “Absolutely”, also in the article;
“Many staff from the Wuhan lab have been training at a BSL-4 lab in Lyon, which some scientists find reassuring. And the facility has already carried out a test-run using a low-risk virus.
But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy.”
“The plan to expand into a network heightens such concerns. One BSL-4 lab in Harbin is already awaiting accreditation; the next two are expected to be in Beijing and Kunming, the latter focused on using monkey models to study disease.”
Nature February 2017
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
Makes me worry about the bio lab they built near Salt Lake City. They could not get a license for a level five, the state passed a law limiting the army depot to a level four.
The army agreed by building a level 4.9 facility.
Thanks Wayne, here is the coronavirus Rhapsody for you.
https://youtu.be/AQn7us3Amfc
I searched further and found the lab was spoken of again by nature this year;
https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787
Did the coronavirus come from a bat? Has not been confirmed. But it’s not from the lack of trying. It was the primary purpose of the lab.
The quote that gave the reason for the research and the virus’s is being transferred to China;
“Creation of a chimaera…
The argument is essentially a rerun of the debate over whether to allow lab research that increases the virulence, ease of spread or host range of dangerous pathogens — what is known as ‘gain-of-function’ research. In October 2014, the US government imposed a moratorium on federal funding of such research on the viruses that cause SARS, influenza and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome, a deadly disease caused by a virus that sporadically jumps from camels)”
“Gain of function” is code speak for Weaponized virus or bio weapons.
Phill O wrote: “One in particular; he got criticized by some for bending on some things and made the comment that if bending meant he got %75 of what he wanted, it was far better than not bending and getting %25.”
This is how the Fabian socialists gained so much ground over the past century. Reagan only had 8 years to undo more than half a century of progressive’s progress.
“My personal opinion of President Trump is that he is an extremely good strategist, knowing which battles to fight.”
We can only hope that he has a strategy in mind to turn this into a teachable moment about what is so bad about big government. The rest of us need to do the same, teaching our more liberal friends, neighbors, and family what is wrong with big government and those who have abused it and made us into a worse place to live because of overreaction. Trump is already strategically discussing exit strategy for our shutdown, ahead of the Democrats, where Congress is only now coming out of their own lockdown, because they realized that they are non-essential.
If the geezers in Congress can come out of lockdown and get back to work then why can’t most of the rest of us?
Max–
Good stuff!
“Dirty Hands, Must Come Clean”
Pat Godwin (AC/DC Parody)
March 10, 2020
https://youtu.be/CnEF1TLnb2A?t=64
“Disgust Sensitivity, Extended Immune System, and Totalitarianism”
excerpted from “2017 Personality 08: Carl Jung and the Lion King (Part 2)“.
https://youtu.be/XBu6xI1iUM0
5:49
“…the higher the prevalence of infectious diseases, the higher the probability of totalitarian political attitudes at the local level…”
Most business I have used (after quarantine) since getting back to Alberta this year no longer accept cash on the idea that money harbors the virus! We are getting closer to the end! Every little step, that seems soooo reasonable, is another step to totalitarianism.
Just a quick thought about the virus release.
What if both stories are sort of true? It came from the lab and was centered on the wet market.
What if the lab “accidentally” sent its dead test animals out to be cremated but somewhere along the road they “fell off the truck” and bounced into the market?
Phill O–
referencing ‘dirty-money’:
“Midget gangster Baby Face Finster pulls a bank job, disguising himself as a baby in a buggy. When his carriage (with its loot) falls down Bugs’ hole, Finster pretends to be a little baby to endear himself to Bugs….”
[Hilarity ensues…]
Merrie Melodies
Bugs Bunny
“Baby Buggy Bunny” 1954
https://www.b98.tv/video/baby-buggy-bunny/
7:07
(embedded player)
pzatchok–
…the anecdotal Story I saw on the Interweb some time ago-
low level lab-techs sold infected test-animals to the local population.
(make no mistake, the chi-coms were & are, up to no good, everything else is just typical commie incompetence.)
wayne Bugs starts out like the average voter. After the revelation, he becomes Trump!
Love Loony Toons