New data now suggests that in swing states there has been a significant decline in Democratic registration

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What does this tell us? New data now suggests that in swing states there has been a significant decline in Democratic registration contrasted with big gains for Republicans voter registration in the upcoming election.

The numbers are startling. Two key quotes:

In Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada — tossup states where direct election-year comparisons could be drawn — the numbers are striking. Democratic rolls increased by only 39,580, less than one-tenth the amount at the comparable point in the 2008 election. At the same time, GOP registration has jumped by 145,085, or more than double for the same time four years ago. Independent registration has shown an even stronger surge, to 229,500, almost three times the number at this point in 2008.

And this:

Based on recent data, Democratic registration has declined by more than 800,000, or 5.2 percent; Republican enrollments were down about 80,000, or 0.7 percent; and independents were up 486,677, or 6.4 percent, in [battleground] states.

These numbers favor the Republicans by 3.5 to 1 and 10 to 1, respectively, numbers that are astonishing. More significantly, these numbers are for the swing states, the very places where voters have been undecided and willing to shift from one side to the other. Thus, these numbers tell us that these voters are now swinging strongly in one direction, and that direction is towards the Republicans.


One comment

  • Kelly Starks

    Everything I’m reading/hearing is saying Republicans are really excited about the election this year and dems arn’t at all. Also polsters have tended to over sample Dem leaning voters. Also voters have been shown to not like to say they are against Obama when asked, because they don’t want to look bigoted. These all would suggest the actual votes could be a lot different then the dead even heat the polls have been seeing for months.

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