No plans to shoot down Long March 5B booster; revised prediction
The Biden administration will make no attempt to shoot down the 21-ton core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket, according to the Defense secretary Lloyd Austin:
At this point we don’t have a plan to shoot the rocket down. We’re hopeful it will land in a place where it won’t harm anyone. Hopefully in the ocean or someplace like that. I think this speaks to the fact that for those of us who operate in the space domain that there should be a requirement to operate in a safe and thoughtful mode and make sure that we take those kinds of things into consideration as we plan and conduct operations.
Meanwhile, the predicted reentry window has shrunk again, to 16 hours, and shifted so that its centerpoint is now over Egypt, as shown on this map by the Aerospace Corporation:
The blue tracks indicate the stage’s path before that centerpoint, the yellow tracks after. The tick marks show 5 minute intervals. Thus, if it comes down just 8 minutes early it lands in Spain. Twenty-five minutes early puts it in Florida.
If it comes down one hour later than this centerpoint it will be crossing over the continental U.S.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The Biden administration will make no attempt to shoot down the 21-ton core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket, according to the Defense secretary Lloyd Austin:
At this point we don’t have a plan to shoot the rocket down. We’re hopeful it will land in a place where it won’t harm anyone. Hopefully in the ocean or someplace like that. I think this speaks to the fact that for those of us who operate in the space domain that there should be a requirement to operate in a safe and thoughtful mode and make sure that we take those kinds of things into consideration as we plan and conduct operations.
Meanwhile, the predicted reentry window has shrunk again, to 16 hours, and shifted so that its centerpoint is now over Egypt, as shown on this map by the Aerospace Corporation:
The blue tracks indicate the stage’s path before that centerpoint, the yellow tracks after. The tick marks show 5 minute intervals. Thus, if it comes down just 8 minutes early it lands in Spain. Twenty-five minutes early puts it in Florida.
If it comes down one hour later than this centerpoint it will be crossing over the continental U.S.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
“… there should be a requirement to operate in a safe and thoughtful mode …”
There is. It’s called “treaty”. Welcome to a classic example of the Communist attitude toward treaties.
Yeah, I’ve noticed several stories trying to make the case this is a problem of nations who put objects I orbit vs the CCP deliberately flaunting existing protocols.
This shows that the rocket is very like Atlas and R-7 lightly loaded…almost stage-and-a-half to orbit. This could be a wet-workshop, with mods…reduced payload. Skylab started off that way.
Is the 21 tons dry mass or wet?
According to Space News..
31 tons dry mass…….
https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/
Correction 21 tons
The statement by Comrade Defense Minister Austin is not how a competent people operate. I am ashamed and appalled that such an individual is in charge of national defense. Honestly, a Denubian bloodworm has more spine.
Still a chance the booster could hit China.
I was able to view the tumbling booster and the Tianhe-1 module just before dawn on Thursday May 6th. A guy in New York captured a closeup of the core module at the same time. Others have captured photos of the passes.
https://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=07&month=05&year=2021
Jeff,
I saw the booster (still tumbling) this (Friday) morning. The booster was over southern and southeastern Oklahoma at the time yet I could still see it from the Houston area. It was of course very low in the northern and northeastern sky. It would brighten to almost the brightness of Polaris with about a two second interval. I was expecting it to be a much more difficult observation.
Didn’t know we could shoot down 20 tons in a decaying low earth orbit. Down is where it’s going anyway.
We might have a shot at destroying a small reentry vehicle on a ballistic trajectory to and from known or assumed locations, but not 20 ton derelict hulks.
John,
You are correct that we never knocked out a 20 ton object. I think the biggest object to my memory was USA193, that was over 2 tons, and it was a kinetic hit. I tried to film its last pass without success in 2008.
I think a shot at it would smash it into smaller pieces, but not obliterate it.
Whether it could be done or not (I think not) the total lack of concern by both the Chinese and our own government (but I repeat myself) is the troubling part. Then the reflex to use the situation (that they don’t give a rat’s rear end about) to call for more international regulation (when the current set of regulations are being ignored) is preposterous.