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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

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SpaceX ramps up Raptor engine tests

Capitalism in space: SpaceX has conducted another Raptor engine test, this time running the engine at full power.

“Raptor just achieved power level needed for Starship [and] Super Heavy,” Musk tweeted just after 3 a.m. EST (08:00 GMT) Feb. 7.

Musk did not say how long the test was or if it was at full power. The Feb. 3 burn was only about two seconds and at about 60 percent power. However, he said the latter test reached a chamber pressure of 257 bar, or about 3,700 pounds per square inch, and an estimated force of about 172 metric tons with “warm propellant.”

Musk has said that they will be doing hopper test flights with their Starship prototype this spring, but they can’t do that until they have three working Raptor engines. It seems to me that it will be at least a few months before this engine is tested sufficiently to be ready for flight. Then they need two more finished engines.

Don’t expect the first Starship hopper flights for at least six more months, if that soon.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

3 comments

  • Diane Wilson

    Word on NSF yesterday centered around 90% power for less than 10 seconds, probably around 6. Also, shock and awe that this test followed the first by only two days. Musk says it will be a while (Musk time?) for full power. But this is sufficient for the hopper and apparently the first prototypes.

    No speculation yet on “full duration” firing, whatever that might mean for hopper engines. And no word on the overall test plan, but noting that this is a full-scale Raptor fresh off the production line. (I don’t think I’d call serial number one a “production model,” though. Close.) Depending on results, this engine may get more testing than hopper engines two and three, and maybe a spare for the hopper. I don’t expect a test-to-destruction until after the hopper has its engines. The hopper engines will get some restart testing, but again I expect that engines for prototypes will get a lot more of that.

    By way of comparison, Boeing sets aside two airframes for static testing of new airliners, one for wing deflection (usually to destruction, although they didn’t do that for the composite wings of the 787), and one for fatigue testing, with simulated take-off and landing cycles in excess of expected airframe life. That seems a prudent approach for high reliability and reuse.

  • Edward

    Diane Wilson wrote: “I don’t expect a test-to-destruction until after the hopper has its engines.

    I don’t expect any intentional tests to destruction on rocket engines. It tends to be hard on the test equipment, and it does not reassure customers.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBBIbTUvWnY (9 minutes: “Test firing a new rocket engine (and watching it explode)”)

    I once tested some standoffs for a spacecraft instrument, and we decided that while we were on the shake table and finished with the planned test, we would test to destruction just to see how well we had designed our standoffs, but it gave no necessary engineering information. When NASA heard that the standoffs had broken, they were upset, and we had to calm them down, because they hadn’t realized that we had deviated from the test plan.

    I have stuck to test plans ever since, and made sure to design the plans to test only what was necessary. This is a case where going above and beyond is not such a good idea.

    Boeing testing wings and airframes to destruction may have given them important engineering feedback and reassured customers that their purchases would last longer than the designed economic lifetime.

  • Diane Wilson

    Test-until-destruction and fatigue testing are done with aircraft because aircraft are reused. That hasn’t been done with rockets because rockets didn’t get reused, until SpaceX. And New Shepard, which takes months between re-use; Musk certainly plans faster turn-around than that.

    We’ll see. SpaceX seems intent to shake up the rocketry industry with more than just pricing.

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