SpaceX’s next Superheavy/Starship launch, according to SpaceX
According to SpaceX’s CEO, Gwynne Shotwell, the company hopes to be ready to fly its fourth orbital test flight of Superheavy/Starship in about six weeks, and will not attempt to deploy any Starlink satellites, as I speculated earlier this week.
“We’ll figure out what happened on both stages,” she said, not discussing what may have gone wrong with either, “and get back to flight hopefully in about six weeks,” or early May. She added that the company doesn’t expect to deploy Starlink satellites on the next Starship launch, as some had speculated. “Things are still in trade, but I think we’re really going to focus on getting reentry right and making sure we can land these things where we want to land them.”
The story however provided one very important tidbit of information about the launch license process from the FAA. Kelvin Coleman, FAA associate administrator for commercial space transportation, noted that after the second test flight in November 2023 “the company completed that report in several weeks.”
That statement confirms my conclusion in late December that SpaceX had been ready to launch in early January, but couldn’t do it because the FAA had to spend another two months rewriting SpaceX’s investigation report.
We should therefore not be surprised if the same thing happens on the next test flight. Shotwell says SpaceX hopes to be ready to launch in early May. That means it will likely submit its report to the FAA around then. Expect the agency to then spend at least one to two months retyping the report, as it has done now after both the first and second flights.
Based on this information, we should now expect the fourth flight to occur sometime in the June-July timeframe, with July more likely.
I am sure that the people at the FAA want to move as quickly as possible. I am also sure their bosses in the White House are demanding they dot every “i” and cross every “t”, with meticulous care, so that things cannot move as fast as desired. That has been the pattern since Joe Biden took office, and I have seen no evidence of that changing now.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
According to SpaceX’s CEO, Gwynne Shotwell, the company hopes to be ready to fly its fourth orbital test flight of Superheavy/Starship in about six weeks, and will not attempt to deploy any Starlink satellites, as I speculated earlier this week.
“We’ll figure out what happened on both stages,” she said, not discussing what may have gone wrong with either, “and get back to flight hopefully in about six weeks,” or early May. She added that the company doesn’t expect to deploy Starlink satellites on the next Starship launch, as some had speculated. “Things are still in trade, but I think we’re really going to focus on getting reentry right and making sure we can land these things where we want to land them.”
The story however provided one very important tidbit of information about the launch license process from the FAA. Kelvin Coleman, FAA associate administrator for commercial space transportation, noted that after the second test flight in November 2023 “the company completed that report in several weeks.”
That statement confirms my conclusion in late December that SpaceX had been ready to launch in early January, but couldn’t do it because the FAA had to spend another two months rewriting SpaceX’s investigation report.
We should therefore not be surprised if the same thing happens on the next test flight. Shotwell says SpaceX hopes to be ready to launch in early May. That means it will likely submit its report to the FAA around then. Expect the agency to then spend at least one to two months retyping the report, as it has done now after both the first and second flights.
Based on this information, we should now expect the fourth flight to occur sometime in the June-July timeframe, with July more likely.
I am sure that the people at the FAA want to move as quickly as possible. I am also sure their bosses in the White House are demanding they dot every “i” and cross every “t”, with meticulous care, so that things cannot move as fast as desired. That has been the pattern since Joe Biden took office, and I have seen no evidence of that changing now.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
I wonder if public opinion might affect the Biden’s efforts to hinder SpaceX.
With the level of success achieved by the latest Superheavy/Starhip test launch, it might prove more difficult for the White House to hinder further testing.
Then again, with our corrupt Mainstream Media, most people have no idea that one of the primary obstacles to Superheavy/Starship is political in nature, and not technological.
WRT the next test, no they won’t deploy any Starlink satellites, but I would not be at all surprised if they deploy some Dummies instead just to test the mechanisms. Why waste high cost functional satellites when they will immediately de-orbit regardless of the success of the test?
All they need is the satellite shell loaded with some ballast to match the operational launch mass and center of gravity. The only reason I can think they would not do this is if they feared it might create a collision hazard for Starship during the planned re-entry attempt, which could indeed be a factor given the limited duration of a sub-orbital trajectory.
If/when they finally do launch the Starlinks from this vessel, the “train” is going to be insane.
Be prepared for the screech that they are ruining the skies.
That “several weeks” comment is very interesting, because there were multiple public statements that SpaceX had not yet closed out their investigation and submitted their report to the FAA as of mid February. From the date where the FAA publicly stated that they had received the final report from SpaceX, license was issued was almost exactly one month later. Which is still a disgustingly long time, but not as long as implied by this latest statement.
I suspect the discrepancy is that the investigation was done in just a few weeks, but the final report detailing all the corrections taken, impacts, etc took longer, and this statement was referring only to the first part.
Sounds like you’re spot on, Mr. Z.
https://payloadspace.com/a-tale-of-two-mission-authorization-plans/
Robert Zimmerman,
You wrote: “Expect the agency to then spend at least one to two months retyping the report, as it has done now after both the first and second flights.”
You make it sound as though SpaceX is not submitting their report in the right format and the FAA reformats it to their preferred way.
If only they had remembered to use the right TPS Report cover sheet, as in “Office Space.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsLUidiYm0w (2 minutes)
“… and will not attempt to deploy any Starlink satellites, …”
They will need to wait until they can launch into a useful orbital plane before they can release any Starlink satellites for operational service. If they can get Starship reentry reliable enough so that they don’t have to do these suborbital launches in order to guarantee safe disposal of the Starships, then they should be able to be more flexible in their orbits and delay reentry until they can do it where it is safe, a few orbits later. That way, they may be able to choose more useful orbital planes. Reliable reentry from orbit may not be too many launches away.
_____________
MDN suggested: “The only reason I can think they would not do this is if they feared it might create a collision hazard for Starship during the planned re-entry attempt, which could indeed be a factor given the limited duration of a sub-orbital trajectory.”
If they deploy sample satellites correctly, then their trajectories should have them reenter far enough away to not be a problem. Depending upon the success of opening Starship’s payload door, this could happen in a couple of launches. This particular test does not require successful closure and locking of the door afterward. A suborbital launch like this previous one is a perfect time to test the deployment mechanism in the way that MDN suggested. The test satellites would come down within the test landing zone.
Another advantage to this deployment test is to assure that Starship’s attitude control can handle the reaction to ejecting these masses.
Edward wrote, “You make it sound as though SpaceX is not submitting their report in the right format and the FAA reformats it to their preferred way.”
Yup. It really doesn’t matter what format SpaceX submits it. The FAA will very slowly retype it to better fit the requirements of the regulatory swamp, and take endless weeks to do so. Nothing will really be accomplished by this, other than to delay achievement and allow these paper pushers to claim they “did their own investigation!”
“… The FAA will very slowly retype it to better fit the requirements of the regulatory swamp, and take endless weeks to do so. Nothing will really be accomplished by this, other than to delay achievement and allow these paper pushers to claim they “did their own investigation!” …”
I have more hope for SpaceX being allowed more frequent launches. Yes, the democrat party wants to demonize Elon and assert their prime authority. But people run these agencies. Ambitious people. People who cycle between industry and government agencies. The alliances these top level administrators have with each other are fueled by the money, contracts and achievements they can gloom onto from SpaceX’s accomplishments. If Mr. Coleman, the FAA deputy admin for space, continues to grant timely launch licenses, there will be a lot more money in the pot for everyone to dip their beaks into. Yes, Coleman has a bright future in the democrat party if he pressures Elon to stay out of the 2024 election. But then doing that limits what he ( and those in his orbit ) can pocket from the space admin business.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91043851/faa-kelvin-coleman