Sunspot update: Activity recovers mostly from last month’s decline
It is the start of the month, and thus time to post NOAA’s monthly update of its graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. That graph is below, with some additional details added by me to provide a larger context.
After the first real decline in sunspot activity in June, the Sun recovered that decline almost completely in July. Though the ramp up to solar maximum has stalled somewhat in the last two months, the trend continues to point to a very active maximum, much higher than predicted as well as much stronger than the last very weak maximum in 2020.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
No days were blank during July, so this year’s total of blank days remains a measly one. We are definitely moving into the maximum, when Sun’s visible hemisphere will always have sunspots, continuously for the next few years.
If (a very big if) the present trend continues, the upcoming maximum will likely be quite strong, and occur much sooner than predicted. The trend also suggests the Sun might very well return this cycle to the active maximums seen routinely in the twentieth century.
As I have noted repeatedly for the past twelve years, an active Sun correlates with higher global temperatures on the Earth, while an inactive Sun correlates with cooling temperatures. Despite being generally dismissed by global warming activists — who are convinced humans are the only possible reason the climate can change these days — good climate scientists know that the Sun is a major factor in any long or even short term climate variations. An active Sun over the next decade will almost certainly contribute to any warming we might see in the global climate. In fact, it could very well be the main cause of that warming.
None of this however is known with any certainty. In fact, when it comes to the very complex climate of the Earth, nothing is known with any certainty. Remember that the next time some politician — who is without question and with total certainty completely ignorant of the science (no matter the party) — claims “the science is settled!”
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
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It is the start of the month, and thus time to post NOAA’s monthly update of its graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. That graph is below, with some additional details added by me to provide a larger context.
After the first real decline in sunspot activity in June, the Sun recovered that decline almost completely in July. Though the ramp up to solar maximum has stalled somewhat in the last two months, the trend continues to point to a very active maximum, much higher than predicted as well as much stronger than the last very weak maximum in 2020.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
No days were blank during July, so this year’s total of blank days remains a measly one. We are definitely moving into the maximum, when Sun’s visible hemisphere will always have sunspots, continuously for the next few years.
If (a very big if) the present trend continues, the upcoming maximum will likely be quite strong, and occur much sooner than predicted. The trend also suggests the Sun might very well return this cycle to the active maximums seen routinely in the twentieth century.
As I have noted repeatedly for the past twelve years, an active Sun correlates with higher global temperatures on the Earth, while an inactive Sun correlates with cooling temperatures. Despite being generally dismissed by global warming activists — who are convinced humans are the only possible reason the climate can change these days — good climate scientists know that the Sun is a major factor in any long or even short term climate variations. An active Sun over the next decade will almost certainly contribute to any warming we might see in the global climate. In fact, it could very well be the main cause of that warming.
None of this however is known with any certainty. In fact, when it comes to the very complex climate of the Earth, nothing is known with any certainty. Remember that the next time some politician — who is without question and with total certainty completely ignorant of the science (no matter the party) — claims “the science is settled!”
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Mr. Z. – There is another major Geophysics story where “the science is (NOT) settled”.
Apparently the Earth is rotating faster than its usual speed. On June 29, 2022, Earth completed one spin in 1.59 milliseconds less than 24 hours.
Some stories mention the Chandler Wobble, an irregular movement of Earth’s geographical poles across the surface of the globe.
Other explanations involve Seismic activity and/or the motion of our Earth’s inner molten core.
Of course the Climate Fanatics are touting the melting of the glaciers at the the poles.
Here is an article from the website Interesting Engineering:
https://interestingengineering.com/science/earth-is-suddenly-rotating-faster-and-the-shortest-day-just-recorded
Paragraph 4 after the graph is probably the best estimate of our current rend.
Nice work Bob!