Category: Behind The Black

The evidence shows clearly that Biden has worked to squelch Elon Musk and SpaceX

12:41 pm

Starship #15 about to land
Starship prototype #15, during its successful suborbital test flight in May 2021

The public concerns expressed last week by one NASA official about the regulatory delays caused by the FAA to SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy development program illustrated once again my sense that there had been a stark change in how SpaceX was being regulated by the federal government, from the Trump to the Biden administration. Under Trump, SpaceX was moving fast, launching test flights frequently. Under Biden, all such test flights appeared to grind to a halt.

For example, it seemed to me that during the Trump administration the FAA allowed SpaceX to complete its investigations of explosions or launch failures quickly, so they could proceed as quickly to another test launch, sometimes only weeks later. After the first orbital test flight of Superheavy/Starship on April 20, 2023, however, the FAA responded quite differently, demanding the right to oversee a full investigation that it also implied would take many months.

Others have disputed this assertion. For example, space reporter Doug Messier commented about my analysis, stating that the FAA’s insistence on a lengthy investigation into the April 20, 2023 Superheavy/Starship orbital test flight failure was simply standard procedure. “I don’t think this represents any change in policy. This is how it’s been done for years,” Messier wrote. “It’s easy to scapegoat FAA as THE cause of the problem, and speculate about nefarious actions by the Biden Administration.”

Who is right? Am I being paranoid? Or is Messier being naive? As Howard Cosell used to say on Monday Night Football, “Let’s go to the videotape!” Or in this case, let’s take a hard detailed look at how SpaceX’s test program for Starship/Superheavy came to a screeching halt when Joe Biden took over the White House from Donald Trump.

From 2018, when SpaceX began first cutting metal on Starship prototypes, to May 2021, the company did eight suborbital test flights and at least six tank and static fire engine tests, with some resulting in explosive destruction. Below is a list of those tests (There were more such engine and tank tests during that time, but these were ones I could quickly find).
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A faint irregular cloud of stars

9:06 am

A faint irregular cloud of stars
Click for original picture.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was released today by the science team of the Hubble Space Telescope. It shows an irregular galaxy thought to be about 44 million light years away.

Alongside its hazy shape, NGC 7292 is remarkably faint. As a result, astronomers classify NGC 7292 as a low surface brightness galaxy, barely distinguishable against the backdrop of the night sky. Such galaxies are typically dominated by gas and dark matter rather than stars.

Astronomers directed Hubble to inspect NGC 7292 during an observational campaign studying the aftermath of Type II supernovae. These colossal explosions happen when a massive star collapses and then violently rebounds in a catastrophic explosion that tears the star apart. Astronomers hope to learn more about the diversity of Type II supernovae they have observed by scrutinising the aftermath and remaining nearby stars of a large sample of historical Type II supernovae.

NGC 7292’s supernova was observed in 1964 and accordingly given the identifier SN 1964H. Studying the stellar neighbourhood of SN 1964H helps astronomers estimate the initial mass of the star that went supernova, and could uncover surviving stellar companions that once shared a system with the star that would become SN 1964H.

I searched but was unable to locate any 1964 images of this galaxy when the supernova was still visible, so I could not pinpoint its location in the picture. It has long since faded away.

Note that the reddish smudges scattered throughout the picture are likely galaxies so far distant that their light has shifted entirely into the reddish spectrum. This likely places them one to several billions of light years away, not millions.

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SpaceX launches another 52 Starlink satellites

12:21 am

Just after midnight tonight (Pacific) SpaceX successfully launched another 52 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage successfully completed its ninth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic, the 199th time that SpaceX has accomplished this so-called impossible task. The two fairing halves completed their fourth and fifth flights respectively.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

39 SpaceX
22 China
8 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads China 44 to 22 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 44 to 38, with SpaceX by itself leading the rest of the world, excluding other American companies, 39 to 38.

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Astronomers admit new satellite constellations “are not a threat” to Hubble

2:56 pm

In a June 5, 2023 press release from the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) that operates both the Hubble and Webb space telescopes, astronomers admitted that the increased number of orbiting satellites from SpaceX and OneWeb have had little impact on Hubble’s observations, and even that impact has been reduced by new software tools.

Stark applied the new tool, based on the image analysis technique known as the Radon Transform, to identify satellite trails across Hubble’s camera with the widest field of view, the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). In 2002 the satellite streaks were present in five percent of ACS exposures, with many of those too faint to discern easily. This rose to ten percent by 2022, although the typical brightness of the detected trails remained unchanged.

…”To date, these satellite trails have not had a significant impact on research with Hubble,” said Tom Brown, Head of STScI’s Hubble Mission Office. “The cosmic rays that strike the telescope’s detectors are a bigger nuisance.”

Radiation from space hits the ACS electronic detectors on every exposure, leaving streaks. These are easy to identify from exposure to exposure. The same holds true for artificial satellites. “The average width I measured for satellites was 5 to 10 pixels. The ACS’ widest view is 4,000 pixels across, so a typical trail will affect less than 0.5% of a single exposure. So not only can we flag them, but they don’t impact the majority of pixels in individual Hubble images. Even as the number of satellites increases, our tools for cleaning the pictures will still be relevant,” said Stark. [emphasis mine]

In other words, the claims by many astronomers that the increase in satellites is a threat to astronomy have been exaggerated. The new satellites might have a greater impact on ground-based telescopes, but based on these numbers (which would be comparable if not better for the giant 8-meter-plus big telescopes on Earth), that impact should be as easily mitigated.

I am gob-smacked that STScI issued this press release, since it undercuts the entire political narrative of the astronomical community that demands these new satellite constellations be either regulated, limited, or even banned, because otherwise all astronomy will be impossible. Based on the information presented here, none of those regulations are justified, at all, and that narrative is an utter lie.

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China tests parachutes on recent Long March 3B launch

10:17 am

During a May 17, 2023 launch of a Long March 3B rocket, China tested the use of parachutes to better control the descent and landing of the rocket’s boosters.

The system was used on a Long March-3B rocket carrying a BeiDou navigation satellite into orbit on May 17 from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan Province, according to the academy.

Developed by the academy, the parachute brought down the rocket boosters to a predetermined location, narrowing the range of the landing area by 80 percent.

Based on the limited information provided by China’s state-run press, it appears this system was only tested on the four strap-on boosters, not on the first stage core. Regardless, such a system, which appears to be a copy of the system Rocket Lab has been developing for the last four years, will significantly reduce the hazards to Chinese inhabitants who live in the drop zones of these rockets.

Note too that China previously tried to copy SpaceX’s grid fins. Apparently its engineers found it difficult if not impossible to reverse engineer that concept, so they apparently decided to try copying Rocket Lab’s parachute methods instead.

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Zac Brown Band – Knee Deep

6:01 pm

An evening pause: Performed live in 2022.

I heard this song on the radio and was astonished because it actually didn’t overload the sound with a typical rock instrumentation so that it was no longer a country tune but a simply rock song with the singer having a western accent. Instead it is simple and clear and a pleasure to listen to, partly because it doesn’t sound like every other pop song played these days.

It also makes a great song to start the weekend.

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June 8, 2023 Zimmerman/Space Show podcast

12:34 pm

You can now listen to the podcast of my appearance last night, June 8, 2023, on the Space Show at this link.

Twas an excellent show. For me however the highlight was the call from Ryan, a self-admitted “lefty” from Oregon, who called in simply to praise in astonishingly glowing words his admiration of my book, Conscious Choice. I had not prompted this, and was floored by his almost unbelievably positive impression.

It was even more gratifying because of his own political leanings, opposite of mine. He recognized the book’s depth of knowledge and grasp of truth, and realized it was not partisan.

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Eroding glacier on Martian slope?

12:21 pm

Eroding glacier on Martian slope?
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, enhanced, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on April 1, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows what the science team labels as “Rough Ground and Bright Exposures” on the flanks of a wide mountain range on Mars, whose highest point is about 4,400 feet higher to the northeast and about 30 miles away.

The arrow indicates the downhill grade. Notice the smooth flat areas that seem to only partially cover much rougher terrain below. To my eye this top layer resembles an Earth glacier that has partly sublimated or melted away, exposing the rougher bedrock below that has been ground and scraped by the glacier previously.

However, this is not on Earth, so assuming it is like an Earth glacier is dangerous.
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NASA worried FAA launch permit delays to Starship/Superheavy will delay first lunar landing

10:36 am

During a public meeting on June 7, 2023, a NASA official expressed concerns that the FAA’s slow launch permit process for SpaceX’s test program for developing Starship/Superheavy will end up seriously delaying the first Artemis manned lunar landing, presently targeting a December 2025 launch date.

The official, Jim Free, was very careful how he worded his comments, but the FAA issue loomed large in his mind.

Free said NASA met with the Federal Aviation Administration recently to discuss the importance of the Starship rocket to the space agency’s moon exploration plans. The FAA is overseeing SpaceX’s investigation into the problems encountered on the April 20 test launch, when the flight termination system took longer to destroy the rocket than expected. The destruct system is designed to terminate the flight before an errant rocket threatens populated areas.

The FAA is not expected to grant SpaceX another Starship launch license until the investigation is complete, and federal regulators are satisfied with changes to the rocket to address any public safety concerns. “They just have to get flying,” Free said of SpaceX. “When you step back and you look at (it), that’s a lot of launches to get those missions done, so our FAA partners are critical to that.”

For the FAA to treat SpaceX’s test program like ordinary launches, requiring a detailed investigation by it after every test flight, will likely delay the development of Starship/Superheavy by years.

Following the early suborbital tests of Starship, the FAA did not “oversee” the investigations. The FAA merely observed closely SpaceX’s investigation, and let it move forward when SpaceX was satisfied. Now the FAA wants to determine for itself when each launch will occur, even though there is no one at the FAA truly qualified to do that. The result will be endless delays and paperwork, and many fewer flights spaced many more months apart, none of which will do anything to aid the development.

NASA is obviously trying to get the FAA to see this, but we must remember that the change in policy at the FAA almost certainly came from the Biden administration, which doesn’t care as much for getting to the Moon as it does wielding its power to hurt Elon Musk, whom it now sees as a political opponent. Expect NASA’s pleas to fall on deaf ears.

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Firefly buys orbital tug company Spaceflight

10:21 am

Firefly Aerospace announced yesterday that it has purchased the orbital tug company Spaceflight, and will now offer its Sherpa tug as part of its launch services.

Spaceflight Inc. was known as a leader in arranging launches of small satellites on small launch vehicles or as secondary payloads on larger launch vehicles, deploying more than 460 payloads. Spaceflight had also developed its own series of orbital transfer vehicles called Sherpa, using a mix of chemical and electric propulsion systems.

Spaceflight has worked with a wide range of launch providers, although at one point it ran afoul of one of its largest partners, SpaceX. However, Firefly said that Spaceflight’s services will, going forward, be used only with Firefly’s vehicles.

Though Firefly will honor the contracts Spaceflight arranged for smallsats to be launched on other rockets, it appears it will be no longer be acting as a launch arranger. Instead, it will offer smallsats a package launch deal, including both its Alpha rocket and the tug. For this deal to pay off however Firefly has got to get Alpha operational. The two launches scheduled for this summer should do this, assuming they fly with no problems.

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Space Force awards SpaceX and ULA contracts for six launches each

10:09 am

As part of its long term launch agreement with SpaceX and ULA, the Space Force today awarded both companies contracts for six launches each, all to occur beginning in 2025.

According to the overall agreement, each company got five-year contracts to launch as many as 40 missions. ULA won 60% of the missions and SpaceX 40%. However, the delays to ULA’s Vulcan rocket will likely change those numbers:

In a report released June 8, the Government Accountability Office noted that the NSSL program office continues to order launch services from ULA and SpaceX amid concerns about Vulcan’s delays. “ULA delayed the first certification flight of the Vulcan launch system … to accommodate challenges with the BE-4 engine and a delayed commercial payload, nearly two years later than originally planned,” said GAO. “In the event that Vulcan is unavailable for future missions, program officials stated that the Phase 2 contract allows for the ability to reassign missions to the other provider.”

One of the reasons that ULA has not hurried its effort to make Vulcan reusable and more competitive with SpaceX is that is already has this guaranteed military launch commitment. It doesn’t need to be as competitive.

What needs to happen is a third or fourth company has to enter the market, giving the military other options. The military also has to cancel this long term launch agreement, which limits the number of companies it will do business with to just SpaceX and ULA. It would be much better to open the competition up to everyone. The ULA would be forced to compete.

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