Surprise! According to two different news outlets today (Reuters and CNN) citing anonymous sources, NASA is about to announce further delays in its manned Artemis program to put humans back on the Moon.
Both reports state that the second Artemis mission, the first with humans on board, will not take place this year as NASA has been saying, but will be delayed until 2025. The third mission, the intended manned landing on the Moon, will be further delayed until 2026. Furthermore, Reuters reports that the actual landing might be delayed until the fourth mission, “giving SpaceX and other contractors more practice before making the first such landing in half a century.”
None of these dates will be met. I predict that further delays will be announced next year and the year after that, pushing all these missions back again, in small increments, even though it is obvious now that the entire program is years from making those first manned flights.
There are numerable problems. First the SLS rocket is so cumbersome it takes many months to assembly for launch. Any issues along the way cause delays. Second, battery problems were detected during testing of the Orion capsule to fly, requiring their replacement.
Third, and most important, the lunar landing requires NASA’s Lunar Gateway and SpaceX’s Starship. Gateway is nowhere near ready. All of its multiple components are still being built, with none yet launched.
SpaceX’s Starship is undergoing testing, but those test flights are being hampered by red tape at the FAA and elsewhere in the federal government. SpaceX had planned to do as many as six test flights per year. Right now the federal bureaucracy is slowing that plan to only one to two test flights per year. Under that restriction, the Starship lunar lander won’t be ready for years.
Pushing the manned lunar landing back one mission makes some sense, but the entire program remains fraught with great risks. Because SLS is so expensive and difficult to fly, NASA can’t afford to do the correct number of unmanned test missions before sending humans on it. For example, the first manned flight will be the first using the environmental system in Orion designed to keep people alive. Yet, that mission intends to circle the Moon with people on board.
For context, note that this program was first announced by George Bush Jr in 2004, with a goal of putting humans on the Moon by 2015. NASA did not even fly the first unmanned SLS/Orion mission until 2022.
Right now, if NASA gets a human on the Moon before 2030 it will be doing well.