When will SpaceX launch the upgraded Falcon 9? We have competing news stories:

When will SpaceX launch the upgraded Falcon 9? We have competing news stories:

  • The Canadian Space Agency sent out a press release today saying Cassiope will launch on September 15 on its Falcon 9 rocket.
  • Elon Musk sent out a twitter report of yesterday’s static fire test, noting there were anomalies and that the launch date is still to be determined.

This is very puzzling. That the Canadian release was sent out today suggests that they have information we don’t have about the static fire test and thus knew they could announce the launch date. That Musk is more circumspect however suggests that the information the Canadians have is not correct.

Update: Stephen Clark at Spaceflight Now has more information. It appears the launch will not happen on Sunday, as SpaceX plans a second launchpad static test tomorrow to iron out the unexplained “anomalies” in yesterday’s static test.

SpaceX successfully completed a static test of the 9 first stage engines of its upgraded Falcon 9 rocket today.

SpaceX successfully completed a static test of the 9 first stage engines of its upgraded Falcon 9 rocket today.

SpaceX’s upgraded Falcon 9 rocket briefly fired nine Merlin 1D engines on the launch pad Thursday, but engineers will review data from the prelaunch static fire test before confirming the mission’s targeted Sunday launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, sources familiar with SpaceX’s launch preparations said.

Today’s static fire test and launch rehearsal of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket was scrubbed.

Wednesday’s static fire test and launch rehearsal of SpaceX’s Falcon 9R rocket was scrubbed.

I hear rumors that there was a fuel leak, but this is not confirmed. Regardless, this scrub could cause another delay of Sunday’s planned launch of the upgraded Falcon 9R with its first commercial payload, as the company wants to do this test prior to launch.

SpaceX has again delayed the launch of its first Falcon 9 commercial launch.

SpaceX has again delayed the launch of its first Falcon 9 commercial launch.

This delay appears to be only one day, from Saturday to Sunday, September 15. The static fire test of the rocket on the launchpad appears set for today, and I suspect the one day delay was to give them more time to analyze the results of today’s test.

Also, this quote from the article shows the risks involved with this first launch of the upgraded Falcon 9:

The launch would be the first for the next-generation Falcon 9-R, designed not only to be more powerful but to have the potential for re-use — that would be the “R” in “9-R” (which Harris incidentally said is pronounced “niner” according to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk).

Space News’ Irene Klotz talked to Musk late last week and found some nervousness going into the launch. “We’re being, as usual, extremely paranoid about the launch and trying to do everything we possibly can to improve the probability of success, but this is a new version of Falcon 9,” Musk told her. [emphasis mine]

The first commercial launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 has been pushed back to September 14.

The first commercial launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 has been pushed back to September 14.

I must apologize to my readers. I completely missed this news item last week. However, in my defense SpaceX has been unusually tight-lipped this time with information.

The launch itself also seems dependent on a hot fire engine test that SpaceX wishes to do first, which means that the September 14 date might still be pushed back again.

While the launch industry eagerly awaits SpaceX’s first commercial Falcon 9 launch on September 10, Arianespace has been signing up customers.

The competition heats up: While the launch industry eagerly awaits SpaceX’s first commercial Falcon 9 launch on September 10, Arianespace has been signing up customers.

Arianespace Chief Executive Stephane Israel said Aug. 29 after the last Ariane 5 launch that the company has booked around 300 million euros ($400 million) in new orders in recent weeks, bringing this year’s total contract volume to 1 billion euros. Industry officials said the contracts are for government missions in Brazil and Japan, and commercial operators in Brazil, the United States, Mexico and Spain.

The Ariane 5 is incredibly reliable, having successfully completed more than fifty launches in a row. It is also much more expensive that Falcon 9, which is expected to cost a customer about half as much to get a payload into orbit.

Until SpaceX proves Falcon 9, Arianespace will be in a strong position to get customers. Once Falcon 9 starts flying regularly however, Arianespace will begin to lose business to this cheaper alternative. Thus, the new contracts will help tide the company over while they scramble to figure out how to reduce costs in order to compete.

In related news, SpaceX readies the new upgraded Falcon 9 for launch.

A engineering problem during construction of one of the shuttle-derived solid rocket boosters for SLS is causing delays.

A engineering problem during construction of one of the shuttle-derived solid rocket boosters for SLS is causing delays.

[The] original test target of mid-2013 slipped when an issue with the aft segment [of the booster] was found. Inspection of the segment showed it was contained an area where propellant had debonded from the inside of the segment wall. Following analysis – which notably found no voids in the propellant itself – NASA decided to ask ATK to scrap the segment and cast a replacement.

Preparations … continued, with the shipping and integration of forward and center segments at the test site, while ATK went to work to replace the aft segment, following approval – post investigation – from NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. After ATK successfully cast the replacement segment in July, technicians carried out routine ultrasound and x-ray tests. Unfortunately, the tests showed this segment had also had similar voids. [emphasis mine.]

The Space Launch System (SLS), was mandated by Congress to use as much shuttle-derived components as possible in order to supposedly save money as well as employ as many of the companies that built those components as possible. In reality, however, every one of those components has required significant redesign to make them work in SLS. In the case of the solid rocket boosters, the four segment shuttle boosters were not powerful enough. They had to be expanded to five segments.

Moreover, it appears from this article it was other technically unnecessary changes to the boosters that are now causing this problem.
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NASA has put Orbital Sciences on notice that, assuming its demo cargo mission to ISS in two weeks is a success, the company might have to do it again as soon as December.

The competition heats up: NASA has put Orbital Sciences on notice that, assuming its demo cargo mission to ISS in two weeks is a success, the company might have to do it again as soon as December.

SpaceX is supposed to fly its next cargo mission first, but NASA thinks that flight will be delayed because of development issues with the upgraded Falcon 9 rocket.

A Russian astronaut, scheduled to fly to ISS in 2015, has unexpectedly resigned.

An experienced Russian astronaut, scheduled to fly to ISS in 2015, has unexpectedly resigned.

No explanation other than that he found “a more interesting job” was given for his resignation, but this paragraph might give us a hint:

The Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center has been rocked by reorganization problems since 2009, when it was transferred from the Defense Ministry to the civilian Federal Space Agency. An unnamed Russian cosmonaut told the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper last year that the prolonged reorganization had affected cosmonauts’ income and career prospects, breeding discontent in the ranks.

Orbital Sciences prepares its Cygnus capsule for its first flight to ISS, set for launch on September 17.

The competition heats up: Orbital Sciences prepares its Cygnus capsule for its first flight to ISS, set for launch on September 17.

Orbital officials said the Cygnus spacecraft was scheduled to be attached to the upper stage of the Antares launcher Wednesday. Final cargo loading into the Cygnus spacecraft’s pressurized module is set for Saturday, followed by its enclosure inside the rocket’s 12.8-foot-diameter payload fairing.

Rollout of the Antares rocket from its horizontal integration facility to the launch pad one mile away is expected Sept. 13.

September will be a busy and important month for private space. We also will have SpaceX’s first commercial launch with its Falcon 9 rocket. If both are successful, the trend away from a big government space programs shall accelerate.

A NASA veteran slams SLS.

A NASA veteran slams the Space Launch System (SLS).

The problem with the SLS is that it’s so big that makes it very expensive. It’s very expensive to design, it’s very expensive to develop. When they actually begin to develop it, the budget is going to go haywire. They’re going to have all kinds of technical and development issues crop up, which will drive the development costs up. Then there are the operating costs of that beast, which will eat NASA alive if they get there. They’re not going to be able to fly it more than once a year, if that, because they don’t have the budget to do it. So what you’ve got is a beast of a rocket, that would give you all of this capability, which you can’t build because you don’t have the money to build it in the first place, and you can’t operate it if you had it.

Q: What do you see as the alternative?

A: In the private sector we’ve got an Atlas and a Delta rocket, and the Europeans have a rocket called the Ariane. The Russians have lots of rockets, which are very reliable, and they get reliable by using them. And that’s something the SLS will never have. Never. Because you can’t afford to launch it that many times.

A businessman fights a federal regulatory effort that destroyed his business. The government responses by trying to destroy him.

A businessman fights a federal regulatory effort that destroyed his business. The government responds by trying to destroy him.

Read the article. It will send chills down your spine. The business was legal, did no harm, and was very successful. The government shut it down, killed it. Now they are going after the creator because he had tried to stop them.

In an effort to deal with their quality control problems the Russians plan to consolidate their space industries into a single company controlled by the government.

The Russian way: In an effort to deal with their quality control problems the Russians plan to consolidate their space industries into a single company controlled by the government.

This is not a good sign for the future competitiveness of the Russian aerospace industry. Consolidation will only reduce competition and innovation, while placing the government in control will only increase bureaucracy.

It appears a programming error might have caused the scrub of Japan’s new Epsilon rocket launch yesterday.

It appears a programming error might have caused the scrub of Japan’s new Epsilon rocket launch yesterday.

The computer controlling the launch from the ground detected an abnormality in the rocket position but it was later found to be normal. “It may have been an elementary, but not serious, problem, ” said one of the experts, quoted by the Kyodo News agency. An inspection after the canceled launch found no abnormality with the attitude sensors mounted on the rocket or with the computer feeding the data to the ground, according to the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).

This is a preliminary report, but sounds credible. The report also suggests that the Japanese are in no immediate hurry to launch but instead want to very carefully investigate the issue first. And as I said yesterday, this is really all good news for this new rocket.

A FAA waiver granted to SpaceX for its next launch outlines details on the company’s effort to recover the first stage for reuse.

The competition heats up: A FAA waiver granted to SpaceX for its next launch outlines the details of the company’s effort to recover the first stage for reuse.

The first stage will coast after stage separation, and then perform an experimental burn with three engines to reduce the entry velocity just prior to entry. Prior to landing in the water, it will perform a second experimental burn with one engine to impact the water with minimal velocity. The second stage will coast and then perform an experimental burn to depletion.

Elon Musk has said that they will be experimenting with bringing the first stage back safely with each launch of the upgraded Falcon 9 rocket. This waiver now gives us the plan for the first launch. It also shows that they are also considering recovery of the second stage as well.

Engineers in India have decided to completely replace the leaking second stage engine of the GSLV rocket whose launch was scrubbed last week.

Engineers in India have decided to completely replace the leaking second stage engine of the GSLV rocket whose launch was scrubbed last week.

The GSLV is a three-stage launch vehicle with four strap-on motors hugging the first stage. The first stage is powered by solid fuel while the four strap-on motors and the second stage are powered by liquid fuel. The third is the cryogenic engine powered by liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen.

“At the rocket assembly building, the satellite, cryogenic engine and the second stage have been destacked. It has been decided to shift the second stage to Mahendragiri for detailed inspection and study,” the ISRO official told IANS. He said ISRO has also decided to start assembling another engine so that the GSLV could fly at the earliest. Queried about the time-frame for the GSLV’s flight, he said: “It is not possible to give a time-frame for the GSLV’s flight now.”

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