Apropos my comment here, Rand Simberg superbly summarizes the serious threat SpaceX poses for the older space launch companies.
The competition heats up: Russia’s deputy prime minister is pushing to accelerate the completion of Russia’s new spaceport in Vostochny.
The first scheduled launch is now planned for 2015, but this article suggests they are trying to make it happen by the fall of 2014.
A Brazilian earth research satellite was lost today when a Chinese Long March rocket failed to put it into orbit.
The cause of the failure is not yet known. This failure, however, is a strong boost for SpaceX, as China is its strongest competitor in terms of price.
Tbe competition heats up: International Launch Services ((ILS) has successfully launched its Russian Proton rocket to put another commercial communications satellite into orbit.
This launch solidifies the recovery of the Proton rocket since the disastrous July launch. With the Russian government forcing a consolidation of all Russian aerospace companies into one government owned cooperation, however, it is unclear what will happen to ILS and Khrunichev (the Russian company that makes the Proton).
Google Lunar X-Prize competitor Moon Express has unveiled its lunar lander, scheduled to soft land on the Moon in 2015.
Moon Express is generally considered the leader in this lunar landing X-Prize competition, and this story adds weight to that consensus.
Let the space price war begin.
Two money quotes:
This latest launch is bad news for Russia, Europe, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. SES paid $55 million to SpaceX for the launch; rivals typically charge $100 million to $200 million. SpaceX has a backlog of about $4 billion worth of launches, many for commercial customers that it can now begin to serve.
and this:
We’ll really get a sense of SpaceX’s abilities over the next year. The company plans to launch rockets at a much more ferocious clip, to refine their reusability and to prepare for sending humans to the International Space Station. You can also expect to see SpaceX tormented by politicians with ties to existing launch contractors and military suppliers. May we live in interesting times.
Some more details about the impending takeover and overhaul of the Russian space industry by the Russian government.
Sadly, Russian culture is strongly top-down and authoritarian. After two decades of wild freedom — when they claimed a large share of the launch market and made a lot of money — they are now returning to their centralized ways. It will not work.
The competition heats up: Blue Origin today revealed details of its successful tests of its BE-3 hydrogen rocket engine.
More details here.
All is go for today’s Falcon 9 launch with less than four minutes left in the countdown. You can watch it live here.
We have liftoff. The real moment of truth on this launch will be once the rocket is in orbit. Can its upper stage relight to lift the SES satellite to geosynchronous orbit?
The rocket is now in orbit. The final engine burn and payload separation will occur within the hour.
The second stage engine burn has been successful. We now await payload separation.
The payload has separated successfully and has been delivered to its planned orbit.
With this successful launch SpaceX is poised to dominate the launch industry. Every other launch company has got to cut its prices in half, or more, in order to compete.
In a 376-5 bi-partisan vote, the House has approved a one year extension to the liability exemption of the 2004 Space Amendments Act.
Though this is helpful, it still leaves intact the regulations imposed by that 2004 law, all of which make difficult the future of space tourism. That this extension was passed in conjunction with an effort by Congress to overhaul the law is encouraging.
India has delayed the first test launch of its Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) from mid-December until the first week in 2014.
This delay appears to be simple prudence. They have no specific deadline for launch, and by giving themselves a few extra weeks they can make sure they have things right. I also have two additional comments.
First, I wish they would give this rocket a decent name. GSLV is not only hard to remember, it is ugly. A better name would help their marketing enormously.
Second, read the comments at the link. They are all from Indians, and the majority of them are very enthused. It will give you a sense of that country’s passion for technology and science.
Tonight I will make another of my many appearances on the Space Show with David Livingston. What makes this particular appearance special is that it will be the tenth anniversary of my first appearance on the show. Ten years ago tonight, on December 3, 2003, I appeared with David to discuss both the history of space exploration as well as its future — as we saw it then. (If you want to listen to that first appearance simply go to this link.)
For the first half of the show our discussion mostly focused on history, the 1960s space race, and my book, Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 (now available as an ebook).
During the second half, our conversation began to range far and wide, speculating about the future of manned space exploration and what would be the best ways to jump start the American effort. Though I did not get everything right, what I said then has turned out to have been a remarkably accurate prediction of what has happened since.
To set the context, this appearance occurred only six weeks before George Bush’s January 14, 2004 speech where he announced his vision for space exploration. At the time we did not know what Bush would say, or even if he would propose anything, though there had been a lot of rumors that Bush was about to make a Kennedy-like speech proposing another Kennedy-like NASA mission to explore the solar system. David Livingston asked me what I thought would happen.
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Russia consolidates its space industry into one giant government-owned corporation.
While the U.S. is working to increase the number of space companies and thus the competition to get into space, Russia is returning to its Soviet-era roots. This second story about this consolidation includes this telling quote:
The country is set to radically centralize its space industry in a bid to combat major inefficiencies and cut down on the misuse of funds under plans unveiled by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the defense and aerospace sectors.
This decision does not really bode well for Russia’s effort to compete on the open market. You never solve inefficiencies or cut costs by eliminating competition. Instead, the lack of competition encourages inefficiency and increased cost.
SpaceX now plans its next launch attempt of the first Falcon 9 geosynchronous launch for Tuesday at 5:41 pm (Eastern).
Can’t light a Falcon 9 without a spark.
The article is an interesting analysis of why Thursday’s Falcon 9 launch was scrubbed. They are aiming to try again Monday evening.
The competition heats up: Two brothers, also college students, have formed a company to build cubesats for researchers.
Mark and Eric Becnel are aiming their company Radiobro at providing turnkey cube satellite services to researchers who have experiments they’d like to fly, but who don’t have the resources to build their own satellites to fly them. “There’s an unfilled niche there in supplying a need if a scientist wants to take an experiment and fly it in space,” Eric Becnel said. “The idea is to provide that researcher with an off-the-shelf solution.”
The solution will encompass both the hardware and software necessary for the research to take place and be monitored, the brothers said. “Maybe you’ve got a launch opportunity and a window to launch,” Mark Becnel said. “We can help you by delivering that satellite in as fast as 12 months.”
This is the kind of creative capitalism the American aerospace industry hasn’t seen from its new engineers in years. In my experience giving lectures at student chapters of the AIAA, aerospace students have routinely been focused on looking for a job, either at NASA or with one of the big aerospace companies. These guys are instead trying to create their own. I say, they have the right idea, and have picked the right venue at exactly the right time. If they do it right, they and their company Radiobro stand to be a big success.
Russia has now officially delayed the launch of its next module to ISS by at least a year.
The cause of the delay is because of a number of serious quality control problems by the company that manufactured it.
China’s next lunar mission, set to launch next month, will have a rover named “Yutu”.
In Chinese folklore, Yutu is the white pet rabbit of Chang’e, the moon goddess who has lent her name to the Chinese lunar mission. Legend has it that, after swallowing a magic pill, Chang’e took her pet and flew toward the moon, where she became a goddess, and has lived there with the white jade rabbit ever since.
Chang’e 2 is the name of the entire mission.
Faced with stiff competition from SpaceX, Arianespace is considering lowering its launch prices.
SpaceX has scrubbed today’s first geosynchronous launch of its Falcon 9 rocket.
The scrub occurred after the third unplanned hold. There was an issue with the first stage, but more information has not yet been released, though they also said that they have rescheduled the next launch attempt for Thursday, 5:38 pm, on Thanksgiving.
As said by the chief technology officer of one of the world’s largest satellite communications company, in reference to today’s scheduled 5:37 pm (Eastern) launch of Falcon 9’s first geosynchronous satellite payload. As this man and Elon Musk also added,
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ESA has announced a six month delay in the development of its service module for the Orion capsule.
Y’know, you can’t finish these government projects too quickly. Otherwise, the cash cow is gone and stops producing milk!
SpaceX successfully completed a countdown dress rehearsal and launchpad hot fire engine test yesterday in preparation for the next commercial launch of its Falcon 9 rocket on November 25.
This was the first such fueling at Kennedy of the Falcon 9.
Update: This article gives some details about why the second engine burn of the upper stage rocket did not occur on the previous Falcon 9 launch, and what SpaceX has done to fix the problem. That failure caused speculation that the engine exploded at the attempt.
It is essential that engine functions in space on the November 25 launch in order for SpaceX to deliver its commercial satellite to its proper geosynchronous orbit.
Construction of Russia’s new Vostochny spaceport is essentially back on schedule.
“I think we have reduced the lag and are getting back to the initial schedule,” Spetsstroy Director Alexander Volosov said on Thursday, November 21. While in July 2013, the lag was about three months, now it has been reduced to ten days. “Funding is provided on time and in sufficient volumes,” Volosov said. The first stage of the project – construction of roads at the cosmodrome – has been completed. The second stage is proceeding as scheduled and is to be completed in December 2014.
The competition heats up: In a launch today a Russian Dnepr rocket sent 32 satellites into orbit, breaking the record of 29 set less than a week ago by a Minotaur rocket.
This is the future. Satellites are going to get smaller, and thus cheaper to launch.
Dennis Tito’s project to launch a manned fly-by of Mars by 2018 has issued its revised plans, and they call for NASA to use SLS to do it.
I will have more to say about this proposal shortly.
On Tuesday NASA issued a solicitation for bids on providing the agency a manned ferrying capability to and from ISS.
The new solicitation asks for proposals for final design, development, test, evaluation and certification of a human space transportation system, including ground operations, launch, orbital operations, return to Earth and landing.
The article is unclear how this solicitation fits in with the commercial crew program that already exists and is funding the manned upgrade of SpaceX’s Dragon and the development of Boeing’s CST-100 and Sierra Nevada’s Dream Chaser.
Update: This article makes things much clearer, outlining how this solicitation is the next phase in development and is open to all bidders.
A close look at another government program to try to lower the cost to orbit.
The latest program is know as the Experimental Spaceplane — or XS-1. The objective “is to demonstrate a reusable first stage launch vehicle capable of carrying and deploying an upper stage that inserts 3,000 to 5,000 lb. payloads into Low Earth Orbit (LEO), designed for less than $5M per launch for an operational system.” The system has to be able to perform with aircraft-like operations. And demonstrate the ability to fly 10 times in 10 days. It needs to reach Mach 10 at least once. And provide the basis for next-generation launch services and “global reach hypersonic and space access aircraft.”
Forgive me if I am skeptical. Despite DARPA’s reasonable success (It helped make possible SpaceX’s Merlin engine), these government efforts generally fail because they are unattached to the prime reasons for lowering cost: competition and profits. Consider this very accurate historical summary in the article above:
In the era of bell bottoms and Richard Nixon, there was the space shuttle. When Ronald Reagan ruled the roost, all hope rested in the National Aerospace Plane. During the Bill Clinton era, there were the X-33 and Venture Star. In Barack Obama’s first term, the Air Force pursued its Reusable Booster System (RBS).
Five programs. One objective: to radically reduce the cost to orbit. More than $14 billion spent on development. And the result? A super expensive shuttle program. Four vehicles that never flew. And access to space just kept getting more expensive.
Only when every effort in the aerospace industry is focused on making itself more competitive will we see the kinds of technical advancements this new DARPA program wishes to achieve.
The new head of the Russian Space Agency has requested that the government impose a ban on the sale in Russia of any foreign made satellites.
The idea is that Russian industries should build these satellites instead, and that this ban will encourage the rebirth of the Russian satellite business.
I doubt it. If the Russian satellite business could do it better, they would get the business anyway, especially since their labor costs are generally much lower.
The competition heats up: In the past three months Scaled Composites has conducted nine tests of SpaceShipTwo engines.
It also appears that one test was of an alternative engine to the one they have been planning to use. All told this suggests they are accelerating their effort to finish SpaceShipTwo.
