Legitimacy.
For July 4th: Legitimacy.
For July 4th: Legitimacy.
For July 4th: Legitimacy.
The competition heats up: This week’s launch failure of the Proton rocket leaves two satellite communications firms in a quandary.
Luxembourg-based SES joins London-based Inmarsat among the commercial customers awaiting Proton launches later this year, a prospect that almost certainly disappeared in the fireball that engulfed Proton shortly after liftoff from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Inmarsat’s entire next-generation high-speed mobile communications product offer is booked on three Proton launches.
It appears that their only other launch options are Arianespace, which is booked up, and SpaceX, which is not yet ready to take on this much new business.
In other words, the launch industry has a need for more launchers from companies willing to compete for that business.
Update: Arianespace has said that if they get the orders quickly, they might be able to fit the launch’s into their 2014 launch manifest. That has the sound of a company that wants to make money, and is willing to do whatever it takes to capture the business.
Throw away those batteries! A fifteen year old has invented a flashlight that runs on body heat alone.
The competition heats up? NASA has revised their plans for the 2017 and 2021 flights of its Orion capsule, making both flights more ambitious.
[M]anifests have always pointed towards the first SLS/Orion launch being an uncrewed Exploration Mission (EM-1), which was baselined a validation flight that would send Orion on a 7-10 day mission around the Moon.
SLS and Orion would then endure a four year gap – again, mainly due to the advanced 2017 debut relating to ISS crew back up – before repeating a version of EM-1, this time as a CLO (Crewed Lunar Orbit) flight, with four astronauts spending three to four days orbiting our nearest neighbor, as opposed to heading directly home after passing around the Moon – a flight known as Exploration Mission -2 (EM-2).
Much to the surprise of some people deeply involved with SLS and Orion, the order came down from NASA HQ to realign EM-2, based around a 2019 mission tasked with hunting down and capturing an asteroid that would then be placed in the vicinity of the Moon within one to two years. EM-2 is also known as the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM). [emphasis mine]
It has been my understanding that the plans for the 2017 unmanned test flight have previously described it as sending the Orion capsule into a high several thousand mile orbit, not to the Moon, in order to simulate a re-entry from lunar distances. Making that unmanned mission a lunar orbital mission makes it far more challenging. Similarly, it is incredibly risky to turn the next flight, the first manned flight for Orion, into a duplicate of this mission, or a flight to an asteroid. This will be the first time humans will have ever flown on Orion, and only the second time the capsule has been used. To then send those humans to the Moon or an asteroid seems downright foolish. Even the 1960s NASA, which was quite willing to run risks, would not have attempted such a plan.
It is my guess that the White House has recognized that SLS can’t survive politically with a launch rate once every four years and planned test flights that aren’t very exciting. They are therefore pushing NASA to accelerate the second mission (and first manned flight) from 2021 to 2019, while also making both flights more ambitious and therefore more salable to the public.
Whether this is possible, given NASA’s bloated bureaucracy, is the main question. Moreover, even at this accelerated pace SLS will be competing directly against the private sector, which I expect will continue to do things far faster and, more importantly, far cheaper. Against that competition SLS will be hard put to survive.
The Proton rocket is now grounded pending an investigation into today’s launch failure.
This is no surprise. What is more significant is that the crash today will likely delay all launches out of Baikonur for at least three months.
[C]ontamination will likely suspend activities at Baikonur Cosmodrome for two or three months, Ria Novosti reported, citing an unnamed source within the Russian space industry. The launch of a robotic Progress cargo ship to the International Space Station from Baikonur, currently scheduled for July 27, will probably be delayed as a result, according to this source. The next manned launch from Baikonur is Soyuz 36, which is slated to blast off on Sept. 25 to take three new crewmembers to the International Space Station.
The competition heats up: Both SpaceX and Boeing say that they are on schedule to make their first test flights of their manned capsules before 2016.
Boeing claims they will be able to make their first manned flight in 2016. SpaceX says it will fly manned by 2015.
» Read more
The competition heats up: The Kickstarter campaign by the private company Planetary Resources has made its $1.5 million goal.
That campaign reached its $1 million goal on June 19, opening the way for one of Planetary Resources’ Arkyd-100 space telescopes to be used for educational and personal imaging projects. The biggest crowd-pleaser was a $25 offer that will let backers take “space selfies” — orbital pictures showing a display on the telescope with an image submitted by a backer in the foreground, and Earth in the background.
The Asteroid Zoo plan was [the $1.5 million] stretch goal for the campaign. Planetary Resources will partner with Zooniverse to create a game-like online program to identify asteroids, modeled on other Zooniverse citizen-science efforts such as Galaxy Zoo, Moon Zoo and Planet Hunters. Users would be recruited to join in, and then trained to spot the telltale signs of an asteroid’s movement — for example, by “blinking” multiple images of the same patch of sky, or using more sophisticated techniques. The search would draw upon more than 3 million images from the Catalina Sky Survey.
The competition heats up: India today successfully launched the first satellite in its own homegrown GPS constellation.
This launch was with their very reliable but smaller Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle rocket (PSLV). They still need to get their more powerful Geosynchronous Satellite Launch rocket (GSLV) into operation to be truly competitive.
A Russian Proton rocket went out of control and crashed mere seconds after launch today at Baikonur.
Video below the fold. It appears the rocket’s avionics had completely failed so that the engines could no longer control its flight. Obviously that is speculation. What is clear is that the failure was not because of a problem with the rocket’s Briz-M upper stage, which has been the source of the five Proton failures during the past three years.
This is very very very bad news for the Russian commercial rocket effort. They have been trying to recover from those earlier failures, and with the string of successes this year had appeared to doing so. Instead, they now have had their worst and most spectacular launch failure in decades, so spectacular it is reminiscent of the rocket failures of the 1950s. Worse, the failure is not because of the relatively new Briz-M upper stage, but in their well established, decades old first stage, indicating that there are some fundamental quality control problems in their manufacturing process that they have not fixed.
This cannot be good for their business, especially as they have some serious competition. Arianespace, though expensive, is very reliable. SpaceX, though new and essentially untried, is very competitive in price. So is Orbital Sciences.
Expect a lot of heads to roll.
» Read more
The competition cools off! NASA’s Space Launch System, costing billions per year, will only make its second manned flight in 2025.
SLS is to make its maiden flight in 2017, when it will carry an empty Orion crew capsule to near-Moon space and back. Another flight would follow in 2021 and, depending on factors both technical and political, could see a crew of astronauts travel to a captured asteroid NASA wants to redirect to a high lunar orbit using a yet-to-be-built robotic spacecraft.
Notionally, SLS would next fly in 2025, giving the rocket a launch rate of once every four years. NASA has been spending about $1.8 billion a year on SLS development, including construction of a rocket test stand in Mississippi, and associated launch infrastructure at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Add in the cost of the rocket’s companion crew capsule, the Lockheed Martin-built Orion, and the tab rises to nearly $3 billion a year. [emphasis mine]
At that launch rate, the NASA’s space effort is slower than China’s, which has a pace that I consider extremely tortoise-like.
But don’t worry, buckos! NASA will be keeping the seats warm in its thousands of government facilities, employing thousands of government workers doing little or nothing.
The competition heats up: Arianespace will not be able to set its launch manifest for the remainder of this year until late July.
The year’s third Ariane 5 mission is scheduled for launch in late July carrying the large Alphasat satellite for mobile satellite services operator Inmarsat of London and the European Space Agency (ESA); and India’s Insat-3D telecommunications satellite.
Beyond that, Israel said, it is unclear which commercial payloads will be placed on which of the two remaining Ariane 5 flights, scheduled for this fall, or what the Ariane 5 manifest looks like for 2014. A big question is whether Arianespace has any slots open in the Ariane 5 manifest in 2014 to accommodate new customers who want to switch to Ariane 5 because their selected vehicle is late.
This article not only suggests that Arianespace has more business than it can handle, it is also provides evidence that the company is scrambling to cut costs in order to compete.
Shenzhou 10 has landed safely, completing its 15 day mission.
The competition heats up: A Russian Soyuz rocket successfully launched four commercial broadband satellites today for French Guiana.
The constellation’s orbit is designed to provide high-bandwidth Internet links to land masses located between 45 degrees north and 45 degrees south of the equator, which means mainly the developing world.
An interesting historical note of this story is that
O3b and SES officials have said that the company has regulatory rights to sufficient spectrum to put as many as 120 satellites in the same unusual orbit. O3b is making use of radio spectrum originally won, following a long battle, by a U.S. company called Teledesic, which had envisioned more than 800 satellites to provide broadband links worldwide. Teledesic ceased operations before launching its satellites.
Teledesic was a $9 billion satellite constellation proposed by Bill Gates back in 1998. They only launched one satellite, Teledesic 1, which was a failure. That this project has essentially come back to life fifteen years later is most intriguing.
Six images that ruined the lives of the individuals they made famous.
Except for the last (which isn’t a photo), every one one of these images is iconic. That an innocent person was destroyed by each says a great deal about the decline of our culture in the past half century.
The Chinese astronauts have undocked from the Tiengong-1 space station and will return to Earth tomorrow.
Following a separation from the Tiangong-1 at 7:05 a.m. Beijing Time, the manned Shenzhou-10 moved back to a point from where the spacecraft changed its orbit and flew around the target module. Under the command of ground-based professionals, Shenzhou-10 adjusted its flight gesture at a point behind Tiangong-1, and approached and rendezvoused with the target module.
The fly-around and rendezvous was apparently controlled by ground controllers, not the astronauts on board.
Orbital Sciences, in its scramble to obtain engines for its Antares rocket, has sued the United Launch Alliance (ULA) for blocking their purchase of the Russian-made RD-180 engine.
Two Russian astronauts completed a six-hour-plus spacewalk today, preparing the station for Russia’s science module.
This science module is many years late, delayed due to Russia’s financial problems after the fall of the Soviet Union. That the Russians are finally about to launch it is another indication, like their recent Proton rocket launch successes, that there space program might be experiencing a resurgence.
SpaceX’s commercial launch from Vandenberg in California of the Cassiope satellite has now been set for September 5.
This is actually the first firm launch date I’ve seen for this satellite.
As planned, the Chinese astronauts successfully completed a manual docking today to their station Tiengong 1.
Orbital Sciences is scrambling to find a reliable long term first stage engine for its Antares rocket.
The NK-33 engine that powered Antares’ first flight was built decades ago by Russia’s Kuznetsov Design Bureau and is no longer in production. Further, Orbital is uncertain about the quality of Aerojet’s remaining stockpile of 23 NK-33s, beyond those set aside for NASA’s CRS-1. Aerojet Rocketdyne is Orbital’s primary subcontractor and overhauls the old NK-33 engines into a configuration for Antares, dubbed AJ-26. Orbital officials say its only current alternative is the RD-180 engine made in Russia by NPO Energomash. But the United Launch Alliance (ULA), which operates the U.S. Air Force’s Atlas V and Delta IV fleets, holds exclusive rights in the U.S. to buy the RD-180.
Over the last four years, Orbital has inquired about purchasing the RD-180 from ULA, RD Amross and Energomash. “We could never get to first base on that,” says Michael Hamel, the company’s senior vice president of corporate strategy and development. Requests for support from the Air Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense and Congress were also met with silence, company officials say.
What I find disturbing about this story is the complete lack of effort by Orbital, Aerojet, or ULA to build their own engines. Even if new NK-33 engines are made by Aerojet, they will be manufactured in Russia, as are ULA’s engines. Why can’t they do what SpaceX has done and make their own engines?
The competition heats up: Germany’s next three radar reconnaissance satellites will be launched by SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
Note that Germany chose SpaceX over Ariane 5, even though Germany is a partner in Arianespace.
We don’t need no stupid government: Planetary Resources’ Kickstarter campaign to raise money to build its Arkyd Space Telescope has reached its million dollar goal.
The competition heats up: At a briefing at the Paris Air Show this week Arianespace admitted that its planned accelerated upgrades to Ariane 5 are intended to counteract the competition from both Russia’s Proton and SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets.
I love competition. It energizes everything.
Update: This long article specifically discusses how Arianespace is scrambling to meet the competition. Key quote:
» Read more
If you are hoping to buy stock in Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, Musk now says you will have to wait until they have begun regular missions to Mars.
This is a change from earlier comments by Musk, which to me suggests that the company’s recent successes and sales has made it profitable enough that he’d rather maintain control than get cash from an IPO. By keeping the company private, Musk can avoid being beholden to stockholders. He can do what he wants.
The competition heats up: Virgin Galactic has sold its 600th ticket to fly on SpaceShipTwo.
At $200K per ticket, that’s $120 million in sales, which I suspect will easily produce a tidy profit for the company. It will also allow them to begin lowering the price, once they have become operational.
The competition heats up: Arianespace is considering accelerating upgrades to its Ariane 5 rocket so that it can carry larger satellites.
The delays in SpaceX’s commercial launch schedule appear caused by a series of problems testing the first stage’s upgraded engines.
The article also provides this updated scheduling information:
A successful test will be key for several of SpaceX’s future ambitions, not least their upcoming increase in launch frequency, with the next Falcon 9 – the debut of the v1.1 – set to loft Canada’s space weather satellite, CASSIOPE, out of Vandenberg Air Force Base. This mission has officially slipped to August, with the likelihood it will be re-targeted to September. Focus will then switch to Cape Canaveral, with two satellite missions, the first carrying SES-8, to be followed by the Thaicom 6 launch.
I had suspected the delays were related to the upgrades to Falcon 9. This article confirms this.
Some hints about SpaceShipTwo’s next powered test flight, as well as details about the first.
China’s manned Shenzhou-10 capsule successfully completed an automated docking with its Tiengong-1 space station today.
They will spend 12 days on board the station, during which they will do, among other things, one manual docking test.
China has launched its fifth manned mission, planned to be longest to date.