Tomorrow’s landing of Intuitive Machine’s Odysseus lunar lander

South Pole of Moon with landing sites
Nova-C is Odysseus’s landing spot

NASA has now announced its planned live stream coverage of tomorrow’s landing attempt of Intuitive Machine’s Odysseus lunar lander near the south pole of the Moon.

Intuitive Machines is targeting no earlier than 5:49 p.m. EST Thursday, Feb. 22, to land their Odysseus lunar lander near Malapert A in the South Pole region of the Moon.

Live landing coverage will air on NASA+, NASA Television, the NASA app, and the agency’s website. NASA TV can be streamed on a variety of platforms, including social media. Coverage will include live streaming and blog updates beginning 4:15 p.m., as the landing milestones occur. Upon successful landing, Intuitive Machines and NASA will host a news conference to discuss the mission and science opportunities that lie ahead as the company begins lunar surface operations.

No live stream is of course active yet. When it goes live tomorrow afternoon I will embed the youtube broadcast here on Behind the Black.

If successful, Odysseus will be the first American landing on the Moon since the manned Apollo missions more than a half century ago. It will also mark the first successful lunar landing achieved by a privately-built spacecraft. Companies from Israel, Japan, and the U.S. have already tried and failed.

Space Perspective unveils test balloon capsule for unmanned test flights

Space Perspective's Neptune Capsule

The high altitude balloon company Space Perspective yesterday unveiled the test balloon capsule, dubbed Excelsior, which it plans to use for a program of ten flights beginning this year, prior to beginning manned flights on its Neptune manned capsule, shown in the graphic to the right.

Neptune is designed to take eight passengers to altitudes of twenty miles for several hours, not quite space but high enough to see the curvature of the Earth. The company had said in 2022 it would begin commercial flights by the end of 2024, but it now says it is targeting 2025.

Florida-based Space Perspective is one of two American companies attempting to fly high altitude balloon flights for tourists, with Tucson-based World View the other. There is presently no word when World View will begin its first manned flights.

ISRO: Upper stage engine of largest rocket now approved for Gaganyaan manned mission

India’s space agency ISRO today announced that it has completed engine tests of the upper stage engine of its LVM rocket, a variation of its GSLV rocket and its most powerful, that will be used on its Gaganyaan manned orbital mission presently scheduled for launch in 2025.

In order to qualify the CE20 engine for human rating standards, four engines have undergone 39 hot firing tests under different operating conditions for a cumulative duration of 8810 seconds against the minimum human rating qualification standard requirement of 6350 seconds.

Before the 2025 manned mission, ISRO plans four more launch abort tests (one has already taken place) and three unmanned Gaganyann orbital demo missions. Two of those unmanned demo flights are scheduled for this year.

Firefly: Software caused failure of upper stage in December

According to the rocket startup Firefly, a software issue prevented the engine on the upper stage of its Alpha rocket from firing its final burn, leaving a Lockheed Martin satellite in the wrong orbit.

In a Feb. 20 statement, Firefly said an error with the guidance, navigation and control (GNC) software for the upper stage of the Alpha on the company’s “Fly the Lightning” mission Dec. 22 kept the upper stage from firing as planned to circularize its orbit. That left the upper stage and its payload, a Lockheed Martin technology demonstration satellite, in an orbit with a low perigee.

The investigation, which included the company’s own mishap team as well as an independent review, found that the error in the GNC software algorithm “prevented the system from sending the necessary pulse commands to the Reaction Control System (RCS) thrusters ahead of the stage two engine relight.” Firefly didn’t elaborate on the issue, but the RCS thrusters likely would have been used to ensure the stage was in the proper orientation and to settle its tanks so propellant would flow from them into the engine.

From this description it appears the attitude thrusters (RCS) had not worked correctly, and this made it impossible for the main engine to fire, either because the computer sensed it was in the wrong orientation, or its fuel could not flow properly to the engine.

The company says it has made corrections, and still expects to launch four times this year.

SpaceX launches Indonesian communications satellite

SpaceX today successfully launched an Indonesian communications satellite into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

Indonesia’s reasons for buying SpaceX’s launch services are explained here. The first stage completed its 17th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

16 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
2 Russia
2 Japan
2 India
2 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the entire world combined in successful launches 19 to 16, with SpaceX now tied 16 to 16 with the entire world combined (excluding American companies).

India proposes to send its own helicopter to Mars

India has now considering adding its own helicopter to its next Mars mission, dubbed the Martian Boundary Layer Explorer (Marble).

While ISRO’s rotorcraft is still in the conceptual stage, the agency envisions a drone that can fly as high as 100 meters in the thin Martian air. Along with the Marble instrument suite, the drone is expected to carry various sensors, including temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, electric field, trace species, and dust sensors.

Whether this mission will include a lander, rover, or orbiter as well is very unclear, which suggests strongly the entire mission profile is presently very much undecided as yet.

How SpaceX got Indonesia’s business

Link here. The article describes not only how Elon Musk and SpaceX persuaded the Indonesian government to buy Falcon 9 launches and introduce Starlink into its country, it describes how a Chinese launch failure contributed as well.

When a Chinese rocket malfunctioned shortly after launch in April 2020, destroying Indonesia’s $220 million Nusantara-2 satellite, it was a blow to the archipelago’s efforts to strengthen its communication networks. But it presented an opportunity for one man. Elon Musk – the owner of SpaceX, the world’s most successful rocket launcher – seized on the failure to prevail over state-owned China Great Wall Industry Corp (CGWIC) as Jakarta’s company of choice for putting satellites into space.

The most fascinated aspect of the article for me however was its effort to create a sense that the U.S. government dislikes SpaceX’s independence.

But the U.S. government and military are concerned about their reliance on SpaceX, especially given Musk’s muscular business style, according to one current and one former U.S. official working on space policy. While legacy U.S. defence contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin typically consult the State Department before making foreign deals, Musk and SpaceX dealt directly with Jakarta, the two officials said.

…Nicholas Eftimiades, a former U.S. intelligence officer and expert on Chinese espionage operations at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, said SpaceX’s CEO had ruffled some feathers in the U.S. capital: “Elon Musk does things his way and some officials don’t like that”.

The only Pentagon official quoted however had nothing negative to say about SpaceX.

It is likely there are officials in the Pentagon who want SpaceX to crash and fail, especially considering the full court press by many agencies against SpaceX since Biden became president. It is also likely that Reuters, which published this article, wants that full court press to succeed, and is eager to spin any SpaceX success badly, if it can. In general today mainstream press sources like Reuters operate as arms of the Democratic Party. If Biden wants SpaceX killed, so will Reuters.

No matter. The article can’t help describing why SpaceX is successful. It competes aggressively, and wins customers because it produces products that work, reliably.

Australian rocket startup raises $36 million in private investment capital

Proposed Australian commercial spaceports

The Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space has now raised $36 million in private investment capital in its most recent fund-raising round. The company had previously raised $46 million.

The funding supports the small launch vehicle startup’s campaign to manufacture, test and begin launching rockets and satellites from the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in North Queensland.

Gilmour Space, founded in 2012, is developing a three-stage rocket called Eris. The first Eris test flight is expected “in the coming months, pending launch approvals from the Australian Space Agency,” according to the Gilmour Space news release. A second test flight is expected later this year and commercial launches are scheduled to begin in 2025. [emphasis mine]

The map to the right shows both the location of Gilmour’s Bowen launch site, but also that of Equatorial Launch Australia (ELA), which is building a spaceport open to all rocket companies.

Gilmour had originally announced plans for an April 2023 launch. Though it is not surprising for a new rocket company to experience delays in developing a new rocket, the highlighted phrase in the quote above, which has appeared in a previous story in September 2023 about the delays at Gilmore, strongly suggests Australia’s government might be a problem as well. Its legal framework is strongly influcenced by Great Britain’s, which has turned out to be a nightmare for both rocket companies and spaceports. That approvals have been pending now for many months is further evidence this is so.

Roscosmos: Russia will do 40 launches in 2024

Yury Borosov, the head of Roscosmos, the agency that controls all of Russia’s aerospace industry, announced today that it intends to complete 40 launches in 2024.

“Over 40 [space launches]. However, plans always remain just plans. Last year, we also planned a large number of launches. But, unfortunately, we could not implement the launch program in full due to some objective circumstances,” the Roscosmos head said.

Roscosmos took efforts last year and keeps taking them this year to ensure the smooth joint operation of its enterprises, Borisov stressed. “This is being done to rule out delays. The main task for this year is to fulfil the entire launch program,” the Roscosmos chief said.

The last time Russia completed 40 launches in a single year was 1994. Since 2015, when SpaceX essentially began full launch operations and began taking away its share of the commercial launch market, Russia has struggled to manage 20 launches a year. Furthermore, since 2022 and its invasion of the Ukraine, it has lost almost all of its remaining international customers. Unless its military has suddenly found money to increase its launch rate significantly, Borosov’s prediction seems absurd. Nor is there any reason to believe Russia’s government has the cash to increase its military launch rate.

Note too that the year is already seven weeks old, and Russia has only launched twice. At that pace it will only launch about 12 times this year.

ESA awards Spanish launch startup PLD a million-plus development contract

Capitalism in space: The European Space Agency (ESA) today awarded the Spanish launch startup PLD a €1.3 million contract to develop a payload deployment system for its Miura-5 orbital rocket, expected to make its first launch in 2025.

Designed to release all types of satellites with as much flexibility as possible, the payload system – called MOSPA for Modular Solution for Payload Adapter – will allow PLD Space to offer its customers a wider range of missions and services, including accommodation of CubeSats, nanosatellites and microsatellites. The development of the modular payload adapter will be done in partnership with OCCAM Space. The goal is to create the hardware to be as light as possible while also being as adaptable as possible to launch more satellites and meet market demands.

“PLD space has proven itself with its first launch last year, and we look forward to seeing the experience applied to the Miura 5 launch services development,” says ESA’s Jorgen Bru, “The payload adapter development engaged today was chosen to increase market competitiveness and ensure that many different types of satellites and customers can fly.”

This contract once again signals ESA’s shift from depending solely on its own launch company, Arianespace, to instead obtaining launch contracts from as many private, independent, and competing European companies as possible. Arianespace, for many reasons (some not its fault), failed to develop rockets capable of competing with SpaceX, and also failed to get them developed on time. ESA presently has no launch capability, and has had to sign contracts with SpaceX to get its payloads into orbit.

The shift is ground-shaking. It suggests that in the next two decades Europe should have a half dozen competing rocket companies of its own, all striving for business and thus all working hard to come up with ways to reduce launch costs. Under the Arianespace monopoly, little innovation took place, launch costs never dropped, and though for many years it controlled a majority of the launch market, it could never make a profit.

Rocket Lab successfully launches Japanese commercial space junk demo satellite

Rocket Lab today successfully launched a commercial test mission of commercial space junk removal satellite, dubbed ADRAS-J and built by the Japanese company Astroscale, in partner with Japan’s space agency JAXA. It is designed to demonstrate the ability to make a close rendezvous of a large piece of space junk and then photograph and inspect it closely to determing it precise condition to facilitate later removal efforts.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

15 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
2 Russia
2 Japan
2 India
2 Rocket Lab

A lot of launch entities grouped at 2. Expect Iran and Japan to fall away as Russia, India, and Rocket Lab continue to launch regularly this year, with Russia and Rocket Lab eventually outpacing India.

American private enterprise now leads the entire world combined in successful launches 18 to 16, with SpaceX still trailing the entire world combined (excluding American companies) 15 to 16.

Japan and India successfully complete launches

Japan and India today completed launches of different rockets, one on its first successful test launch.

First, early this morning Japan’s new H3 rocket successfully reached orbit for the first time, on its second attempt. The first attempt had problems, first with a launch abort at T-0 when the solid-fueled strap-on boosters failed to ignite. On the launch attempt the upper stage failed. Today’s launch was a complete success, placing a dummy payload into orbit.

Japan’s space agency JAXA however needs to learn how to run a launch in a professional manner. Minutes prior to launch an announcer began a second-by-second countdown, and continued this for minutes after the launch. Not only was this unnecessary and annoying, it made the real updates impossible to hear. India used to do this in its first few live streams, but quickly recognized the stupidity of it. In addition, the person translating the updates clearly knew nothing about rocket launches, so her translations were tentative and often completely misunderstood what had just happened.

All of this makes JAXA look like a second rate organization, which might also help explain its numerous technical failures in recent years.

About twelve hours later, at mid-day in India, India’s space agency ISRO successfully launched its GSLV rocket, placing a commercial radar environmental satellite into orbit.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

15 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
2 Russia
2 Japan
2 India

American private enterprise still leads the entire world combined in successful launches 17 to 16, with SpaceX trailing the entire world combined (excluding American companies) 15 to 16.

Rocket Lab begins maneuvers to bring Varda’s capsule back to Earth

With the FAA finally giving its okay (six months late), Rocket Lab has now begun the orbital maneuvers required to bring Varda’s small manufacturing capsule back to Earth at the Utah test range.

For more than eight months in space, Rocket Lab’s 300kg-class spacecraft has successfully provided power, communications, ground control, and attitude control to allow Varda’s capsule to grow Ritonavir crystals, a drug commonly used as an antiviral medication for HIV and hepatitis C.

Due to the initial planned reentry date being adjusted from late 2023, Rocket Lab’s spacecraft has been required to operate for more than double its intended orbital lifespan, which it has done without issue.

If all goes as planned, the capsule will land on February 21, 2024. Whether those drugs are still viable and sellable remains unknown. The delay due to government red-tape might have made them useless.

Nonetheless, a success in recovering those samples, viable or not, would establish Varda’s business plan. With three more missions planned, all to be launched and controlled by Rocket Lab, it will be positioned well for the future, its capsule a method for manufacturing a number of products in weightlessness that are needed on Earth but can only be made in space.

China targets May 2024 for launch of its Chang’e-6 lunar sample return mission

The Moon's far side
The Moon’s far side. Click for interactive map.

China is now working to a May 2024 launch of its Chang’e-6 lunar sample return mission to bring back about four pounds of material from the far side of the Moon.

The map to the right, created from a global mosaic of Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) imagery, shows the planned location of Chang’e-6’s landing site, in Apollo Basin. The landing site of China’s previous mission to the Moon’s far side, Chang’e-4 and its rover Yutu, is also shown. Both are still operating there, since landing five years ago on January 2, 2019.

Chang’e-6’s mission will be similar to China’s previous lunar sample mission, Chang’e-5, which included a lander, ascender, orbiter, and returner. It launched in November 23, 2020, landed a week later, and within two days grabbed its samples and its ascender lifted off. The samples were back on Earth by December 16, 2020.

There are indications however that Chang’e-6 might spend more time on the surface before its ascender lifts off with samples.

Uruguay signs Artemis Accords

Uruguay yesterday became the 36th nation to sign the Artemis Accords, originally conceived during the Trump administration as a political maneuver to get around the legal restrictions against private ownership imposed by the Outer Space Treaty.

It is unclear where Uruguay stands with these goals. The last two signatories, Belguim and Greece, hinted in their public statements that their goals were far different, aimed more at imposing the modern leftist globalist agenda instead (“You will own nothing and be happy.”)

At present these are the nations who have signed on: Angola, Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Columbia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

The competing alliance of communist nations, led by China, includes only Russia, Venezuala, Pakistan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and South Africa. Former deep Soviet bloc nations like Bulgaria and Romania, as well as previously very Marxist Angola, joined the American alliance, suggesting that these two space alliances are not a return of the Cold War of the 20th century. Instead, it appears that both alliances are untrustworthy when it comes to individual rights, freedom, and limited government. Both have tensions within each, with many leaders in both groups working both against and for these ideals, with a large plurality likely focused on power and control, not human freedom.

The U.S. can do much good here, if its leadership stands firmly for freedom (to paraphrase John Kennedy). Sadly, its leadership today does not do this, and it is very unclear whether future leaders will do so either.

SpaceX launches 22 Starlink satellites

SpaceX today successfully launched another 22 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California at 1:34 pm Pacific.

This was the launch scrubbed yesterday, and its launch today means the company completed three launches in less than 24 hours. The first stage successfully completed its second flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

15 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
2 Russia

American private enterprise now leads the entire world combined 17 to 14 in successful launches, with SpaceX by itself is leading the rest of the world combined (excluding American companies) 15 to 14.

Space Force cancels major satellite contract with Northrop Grumman

The Space Force today announced it has cancelled a major multi-satellite contract with Northrop Grumman, worth almost a billion dollars, because of cost overruns and scheduling delays.

Northrop was formally notified last month of the termination within “our restricted Space Business,” the defense contractor said in a regulatory filing, using jargon for classified programs. The filing offered no details on the classified satellite or the reasons it was called off, which were provided by people who commented on condition of anonymity because of its secret status.

Based on previous contract announcements, this cancellation appears to be the contract awarded to Northrop Grumman in August 2023, as part of two awards, one to Northrop and the second to Lockheed Martin, with each building 36 satellites of a 72 satellite communications constellation. The Northrop contract was valued at $733 million.

Apparently in the six months since, the Space Force found that Northrop Grumman wasn’t doing a satisfactory. Whether Lockheed Martin will pick up the contract to replace Northrop however is not clear. The Space Force might put it up for bid again.

SpaceX moves its corporation home from Delaware to Texas

As had been threatened by Elon Musk, SpaceX has now officially filed to move its incorporation home from Delaware to Texas, taking with it signicant tax dollars.

SpaceX, which was incorporated in the famously corporation-friendly Delaware, filed to relocate its business incorporation with the Texas Secretary of State, Bloomberg reported.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk publicly railed against the Diamond State and a judge’s decision to void his $55 billion Tesla pay package.

Another Musk company, Neuralink, has also shifted its incorpoation from Delaware to Nevada.

None of this involves the movement of any physical facilities. However, Musk is making it very clear once again that if a state government interferes unreasonably with his business operations, he will leave it. He did this by the actual shifting previously large parts of SpaceX operations from California to Texas when California government officials attempted to punish him for remaining open during the Wuhan panic. Now he is doing the same to Delaware because it appears one judge decided he didn’t like Musk’s Tesla’s pay package, even though 80% of the company’s stockholders approved.

Varda finally gets FAA permission to land its capsule

After more than six months of paper-pushing, the FAA has finally agreed to let the commercial in-space manufacturing startup Varda land its orbiting capsule in Utah.

After months of effort and one rejected application, Varda Space Industries said Feb. 14 it has received a license from the Federal Aviation Administration to return a capsule from its first mission.

The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation issued a reentry license for Varda’s W-Series 1 spacecraft. The license will allow the company to land a capsule from that spacecraft at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) and neighboring Dugway Proving Ground west of Salt Lake City. Varda said that reentry is scheduled for Feb. 21.

…The company had hoped to return the capsule as early as mid-July, but said then was still working with the FAA to obtain a reentry license, required for any commercial spacecraft returning to Earth. One issue the company said it was facing was that it was the first company seeking a reentry license under new regulations called Part 450 intended to streamline the licensing process, but which some companies reported difficulties adjusting to. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted sentence dishonestly implies it has been the companies that are having problems adjusting to these so-called “streamlined” regulations, when the truth is that the FAA has been the one having the problem. Since Part 450 was established all FAA appovals have slowed to a crawl, when previously the FAA moved much faster.

In fact, that sentence is proven dishonest in the article’s very next paragraphs, which describe how the July approval didn’t happen because two government agencies couldn’t get their act together. Varda really had nothing to do with this lack of approval.

The capsule contains pharmaceuticals for sale on Earth that can not be manufactured in gravity. For the government to delay their return almost half a year simply because of red-tape is disgusting, especially because this delay might end up destroying the startup entirely. It is even more disgusting in that these government agencies have had had no problem approving the return of NASA capsules from space, to this very same Utah range.

SpaceX successfully launches Intuitive Machines Odysseus lunar lander

South Pole of Moon with landing sites

SpaceX has successfully launched Intuitive Machines commercial Nova-C-class Odysseus lunar lander, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral at 1:05 am (Eastern) on February 15th.

This was the third launch in less than eleven hours today, and the second launch by SpaceX. The first stage successfully completed its 18th flight, landing back at Cape Canaveral.

The green dot on the map to the right shows the planned landing site for Odysseus, next to a crater with a permanently shadowed interior, though it will have no way to travel into it. This will also be the closest landing to the Moon’s south pole, and if all goes well, will take place eight days from today, where it will operate for about ten Earth days. You can find out more about the lander’s payloads and mission from the press kit [pdf].

It must be emphasized that like India’s Vikram lander and Pragyan rover, Japan’s SLIM lander, and Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander, Odysseus is mostly an engineering test to prove out the landing systems. If this spacecraft does any science on the lunar surface that will be a bonus.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

14 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
2 Russia

American private enterprise now leads the entire world combined 16 to 14 in successful launches, with SpaceX by itself is now tied the rest of the world combined (excluding American companies) 14 to 14.

Russia launches Progress freighter to ISS

Russia today (February 15th in Kazakhstan) successfully used its Soyuz-2 rocket to launch a Progress freighter to ISS.

As happens on launches from Kazakstan to ISS, the rocket’s core stage and strap-on boosters crashed within Kazakstan inside planned crash zones.

This was supposed to be the third launch today, but SpaceX’s second launch today, this time of 22 Starlink satellites, was scrubbed due to weather and reschduled 24 hours till tomorrow at Vandenberg. There is still one more launch scheduled today, SpaceX launching Intuitive Machines Nova-C lunar lander at 9:57 pm (Pacific).

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

13 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran
2 Russia

American private enterprise still leads the entire world combined 15 to 14 in successful launches, with SpaceX by itself now trailing the rest of the world combined (excluding American companies) 13 to 14.

SpaceX launches two military prototype satellites

SpaceX today successfully launched two prototype reconnaissance satellites for the U.S. military, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral at 5:30 pm (Eastern) time.

The first stage successfully completed its seventh flight, landing back on at Cape Canaveral.

This is the first of four launches scheduled for the next eleven hours. Next up is another Falcon 9 launch, carrying 22 Starlink satellites and lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

13 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran

At present American private enterprise leads the entire world combined 15 to 13 in successful launches, with SpaceX by itself tied with the rest of the world combined (excluding American companies) 13 all.

SpaceX announces plans to build $100 million office complex in Brownsville

According to a filing with the Texas Department of Regulations and Licensing, SpaceX is now planning a $100 million office complex in Brownsville, Texas, in addition to the extensive facilities it is building nearby at its launch site at Boca Chica.

Just a few miles away from its launch site, SpaceX will construct the multimillion-dollar office inside an industrial factory. It will be located at 52198 San Martin Blvd., Brownsville, TX 78521, according to the Texas Department of Regulations and Licensing filing.

Construction is slated to begin this month and is expected to have just under a year turnaround. An estimated start date is listed as February 23, with a completion date of January 1, 2025, according to the TDLR filing. All TDLR filings are subject to change.

It seems to me that the activist group Save RGV (Rio Grand Valley) that is suing SpaceX to shut down Boca Chica is acting to destroy this region, not save it. Before SpaceX showed up the economy of Brownsville and the Rio Grand Valley was very depressed and going nowhere. SpaceX has brought in billions in investment capital as well as tens of thousands of new jobs.

One wonders how any court can rule in favor of Save RGV’s lawsuit that seeks to prevent any future temporary beach closures at Boca Chica and thus outlaw any further launches. Such a ruling would essentially shut down much of what SpaceX is doing in the Brownsville region, and would result in the destruction of this new economic growth.

Such a ruling seems insane, but we should not ignore its possibility. Stupider decisions by courts have been made many times in the past. And it does appear we live in very stupid times.

Botswana bans Starlink

On February 2, 2024 regulators in Botswana rejected SpaceX’s application to sell Starlink terminals in that country, “citing the company’s failure to meet all requirements.”

In an email statement, BOCRA [Botswana Communications Regulatory Authority] emphasized that Starlink has not authorized any entity to import or resell its Internet kits in Botswana. Offenders will be committing an offence, although the specific charges remain undisclosed.

Notably, some Starlink kit owners, who claim to have purchased the devices for personal use, find themselves stranded at the Kazungula border in Zambia, facing restrictions on bringing the kits into Botswana. Options provided at the border include returning the device to Zambia or seeking permission from Botswana’s telco regulator, with no successful requests reported thus far.

The article is unclear as to what government requirements SpaceX has so far failed to meet. The article however does describe how many individuals have purchased Starlink terminals elsewhere and then brought them into countries where the service is not yet approved and used the company’s “roaming option in Africa” to make them work. SpaceX has been shutting down such terminals, but apparently it has not been entirely successful.

The bottom line here remains an issue of freedom versus government control. Africans very clearly want the service, and in fact the article describes at length the benefits it brings to poor rural areas. Freedom demands they should get it, as its use does no one harm and everyone good. All that stands in the way is government regulation and intransigence.

Musk: 3rd Starship/Superheavy test launch expected in early March

According to a tweet on X by Elon Musk, the third test flight of SpaceX’s heavy-lift Starship/Superheavy rocket is now expected in about three weeks, in early March.

The rocket is presently on the launchpad, undergoing final tests.

This confirms my December prediction that the launch would not happen earlier than March. SpaceX was ready to launch in January, but as I predicted red tape in the federal government have left the rocket sitting on the ground.

However, that prediction may have been too optimistic. First, SpaceX has still not gotten its launch license from the FAA, with no word from that agency when it will rubber-stamp SpaceX’s investigation into the second test launch in November. Second, the lawsuit by activists challenging the right of local authorities to close beaches at Boca Chica for launches remains active. It is very possible those activists will be successful in getting the court to issue an injunction preventing any beach closures (and thus launches) while the case is being litigated. If so, the next test launch could be months away.

The core and upper stages of the first Ariane-6 rocket are now on the way to French Guiana

After almost a decade of development and delays of more than four years, the core and upper stages of Europe’s Ariane-6 rocket are now on board ship and on the way to French Guiana for that rocket’s inaugural launch.

The Canopée ship left the port of Le Havre, in France, carrying the core and upper stages of the Ariane 6 launcher which will be used on the inaugural flight. Arrival at the port of Pariacabo in Kourou, French Guiana, from where it will be transferred to Europe’s Spaceport, is scheduled for the end of February.

Once in French Guiana, the two stages will be assembled vertically and once on the launchpad, will then have attached two solid-fueled strap-on boosters. The launch window is presently from June 15th to July 31st.

SpaceX has caused a 77% drop in price for transferring data by satellite

According to a new study, SpaceX’s lower launch costs and its Starlink satellite constellation has caused a 77% drop in the price for transfering data by satellite in the past five years.

The costs involved in providing capacity have also declined in recent years following satellite manufacturing advances — and greater availability of launches thanks primarily to SpaceX. The average cost base of supplying HTS capacity in North America has dropped from around $40 a month per megabit per second in 2019 to about $12 in 2023, according to Euroconsult.

However, Euroconsult expects costs to stabilize over the next two to three years in the Americas and Europe, potentially slowing down the decline in capacity prices.

I think Euroconsult might be wrong about that last conclusion. Increased competition in the launch industry as well as the launch of other satellite constellations will force further drops in prices. The only threat to this continuing drop will outside forces, such as an overall economic collapse, war, or increased regulation.

Ukraine: Russia using Starlink; Musk: No we don’t allow it

Over the weekend Ukrainain officials reiterated the claim from last week that Russia soldiers are using Starlink terminals illegally in occupied territories.

Earlier on Sunday, Ukrainian military intelligence said Russia is using Musk’s satellites to facilitate communications on the battlefield. The intelligence agency posted audio of an exchange between two Russian soldiers from the 83rd Assault Brigade in the Donetsk region, claiming that the Russians were speaking over Starlink.

Ukraine intelligence did not specify how many terminals it believed Russia had or how they might have been obtained. Still, Ukrainian Military Intelligence Spokesperson Andriy Yusov said that the use of Starlink by Russians was becoming “systemic.”

Musk soon responded on X, stating that SpaceX does not sell any of its terminals in Russia, and it immediately blocks use of stolen terminals in Russia once detected.

Musk however was very careful to say nothing about what happens in the occupied territories of the Ukraine where Russia troops operate. In the recent slow gains of territory that the Russians have achieved it could have captured terminals and begun using them, in their correct location. SpaceX would have no way to knowing who the user is.

I expect SpaceX will now take actions to deal with this issue, using information provided by the Ukrainians.

SpaceX launches 22 Starlink satellites

After about four scrubs due to weather, SpaceX today finally launched another 22 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The first stage successfully completed its fourteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

12 SpaceX
8 China
2 Iran

At present American private enterprise leads the entire world combined 14 to 13 in successful launches.

Status of ULA sale offer, as seen by bankers

Link here. The article outlines the perspective of the banking community to the sale, relative to the three potential known purchasers, Blue Origin, Cerberus, and Textron.

[M]ost contended that a deal should have been finalized years ago, as SpaceX now dominates the global rocket launch market and has grabbed share from ULA’s best customer, the U.S. military. The sticky part of a sale, those bankers said, is the need for new ownership that can both streamline ULA and invest in further innovation.

The price is another sticking point: Bankers suggested ULA’s owners initially sought more than $4 billion for the company, but the consensus of a reasonable winning bid was in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. As one banker emphasized to me, there’s more competition among heavy launch vehicles like Vulcan today than there was a decade ago, and the rocket’s only just getting going now.

First, it appears that Textron has already dropped out. Second, the reason the sale was delayed was solely the fault of Blue Origin, as delays in delivering its BE-4 rocket engine to ULA caused the first launch of the Vulcan rocket to be delayed years. The sale couldn’t happen until that rocket was proven flightworthy.

The analysis between Blue Origin and Cerberus makes it hard picking either as the likely winner. It suggests that while Blue Origin, as a rocket company, might be able to more quickly take advanage of the ULA’s assets, Cerberus would be a better managerial fit, more able to trim the fat and make ULA more competitive. For sure, Blue Origin shows no ability to trim fat or work fast.

The bankers also indicated a dark horse could still appear.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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