Poll numbers suggest largest Republican victory in generations

Gallup poll numbers suggest tomorrow’s Republican victory could be the largest in generations, and could exceed all predictions. Key quote:

It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained. [emphasis mine]

Squeal like a pig

Let’s take a trip into the future, looking past Tuesday’s midterm election.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that, come Tuesday, the Republicans take both houses, in a stunning landslide not seen in more than a century. Let’s also assume that the changes in Congress are going to point decidedly away from the recent liberal policies of large government (by both parties). Instead, every indication suggests that the new Congress will lean heavily towards a return to the principles of small government, low taxes, and less regulation.

These assumptions are not unreasonable. Not only do the polls indicate that one or both of the houses of Congress will switch from Democratic to Republican control, the numerous and unexpected primary upsets of established incumbents from both parties — as well the many protests over the past year by large numbers of ordinary citizens — make it clear that the public is not interested in half measures. Come January, the tone and direction of Congress is going to undergo a shocking change.

Anyway, based on these assumptions, we should then expect next year’s Congress to propose unprecedented cuts to the federal budget, including the elimination of many hallowed programs. The recent calls to defund NPR and the Corporation for Public Broadcastings are only one example.

When Congress attempts this, however, the vested interests that have depended on this funding for decades are not going to take the cuts lightly. Or to put it more bluntly, they are going to squeal like pigs, throwing temper tantrums so loud and insane that they will make the complaints of a typical three-year-old seem truly statesman-like. And they will do so in the hope that they will garner sympathy and support from the general voting public, thereby making the cuts difficult to carry out.

The real question then is not whether the new Congress will propose the cuts required to bring the federal government under control, but whether they, as well as the public, will have the courage to follow through, to defy the howls from these spoiled brats, and do what must be done. » Read more

Toronto elects conservative mayor by a surprising margin

Is this a hint of what’s to come on Tuesday? Toronto yesterday not only elected a conservative mayor by a very large margin, four incumbent councillors were also defeated soundly. Key quote:

Polls, indicating the race was razor edge close, were proven false in 11 single minutes! . . . [The conservative] Ford won with 383,501 votes—more than the votes of his two main opponents combined.

Why this election is important

Mark Steyn explains why next week’s midterm election and what the next Congress does has very special significance. Key quote:

In a two-party system, you have to work with what’s available. In America, one party is openly committed to driving the nation off the cliff, and the other party is full of guys content to go along for the ride as long as we shift down to third gear. That’s no longer enough of a choice. If your candidate isn’t committed to fewer government agencies with fewer employees on lower rates of pay, he’s part of the problem. This is the last chance for the GOP to restore its credentials. If it blows it, all bets are off for 2012.

Republicans weaseling out already?

Republican senator Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire) suggested Monday that it would be better to restructure the healthcare bill than repeal or defund it.

Idiot. I think he and the rest of the Republican Party are being as clueless as the Democrats if they think this strategy will work. They should instead pay very close attention to what Sarah Palin said on the same day about a third party threat:

“Some in the GOP, it’s their last shot,” Palin said Monday evening on Fox News. “It’s their last chance, and we will lose faith and we will be disappointed and disenchanted from them if they start straying from the bedrock principles that can grow our economy.”

I am also reminded of this prescience Iowahawk post. As he says so eloquently, “Retards.”

Charles Lollar vs Steny Hoyer

Steny Hoyer must be in trouble. At the Charles County Candidate Forum on Wednesday, he lowered himself to actually debate his opponents for the upcoming Congressional election, the first time I have seen this happen since I moved to his district in 1999. However, his Republican opponent, Charles Lollar, got the last word, and made Hoyer look bad.

Two Democratic candidates try to silence their opposition

Freedom of speech alert! Rather than debate their opponents, two Democratic House candidates are trying to shut them up.

In the first case, incumbent Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) is trying to use election laws to block an anti-abortion group from putting up billboards against him. Ed Morrissey at hotair.com has more details.

In the second case, incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper (D-Pennsylvania) is trying to get radio stations to pull the radio ads of another anti-abortion group which attack her for her healthcare vote.

In both cases, the Democratic candidates voted for the Healthcare bill, and seem to want to hide that fact now from the voters. Not only does this illustrate the contempt they have of freedom of speech, it shows us just how toxic the healthcare bill has become politically. I suspect that this law is going to dog the Democrats who voted for it for years to come.

Gallup’s astonishing numbers

I can see November from my house. New numbers from Gallup are “astonishing.” To quote Michael Barone today in the Washington Examiner: “These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928.”

The single most powerful political force in the nation

Want to know what the actual future consequences of the Tea Party movement will be? Read this op-ed by Glenn Reynolds. Key quote:

Both political parties are out of touch, and ordinary Americans are very unhappy about it, as they watch the Treasury being looted, the economy sink, and the political, journalistic, and financial ruling-class figures escaping the consequences of their ham-handed and self-serving actions.

Also:

For now, Republicans are (sort of) the beneficiaries. Though Tea Partiers aren’t happy with the GOP, they’re much less happy with the Democrats. In this election cycle, Republicans will benefit. But Tea Partiers are also taking over the GOP from the bottom up, running for precinct chairs and state committee seats.

This makes sense: There are barriers to entry for third parties, and it makes more sense to take over an existing party than to start from scratch, if that’s possible.

But those establishment GOP figures who think that they’ll cruise to victory and a return to the pocket-stuffing business-as-usual that marked the prior GOP majority need to think again. This election cycle is, in a very real sense, a last chance for the Republicans. If they blow it, we’re likely to see third-party challenges in 2012, not only at the Presidential level but in numerous Congressional races as well.

Hoyer says Americans are “conflicted”

At a press briefing today my congressman, Steny Hoyer, said that he thinks Americans are “conflicted”, have “a lot of angst and anxiousness”, and are “not sure” which party will move the country forward. Steny is partly right about the first two points, but quite wrong about the third, considering his party’s dismal poll numbers.

I also suspect that Steny has a lot of his own angst and anxiousness, considering the momentum his opponent, Charles Lollar, is building.

A November wipe-out

This article suggests that the Republican victory in November is going to be far greater than any polls have indicated. Key quote:

Only about 160 of the Democrats’ 239 Congressional Districts are even remotely considered to be in play. But that playbook is badly out of date. The Republican message has raced far ahead of the GOP campaign and put a lot of new seats in play. We just have to work these districts to win them.

In fact, there are no polls to analyze in most of these 160 districts. Nobody considered them in play enough to poll them. We just don’t know how vulnerable these extra incumbents are. But, given the surprising vulnerability of the first eighty seats, we believe that a substantial number of these formerly invincible Congressmen can be ousted. [emphasis mine]

I strongly suspect that my home district, the 5th Congressional district of Maryland, is one of these 160 unknown districts. My congressman, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, is running against Republican Charles Lollar. For years this district has been considered safe for Steny. No more.

Lollar, a black conservative with Tea Party connections, has run an aggressive campaign, raised lots of money, and has been unafraid of taking the race into the hardcore Democratic areas near Washington. His signs are up everyone, only a week after clinching the nomination in the primary.

Come November 2, I think that the results from this district will be a stunning upset. I also think these results will only be one example among many others.

Full disclosure notice: In all my life, I had never given money to any political candidate. I considered such contributions a waste of my money. This year, however, I broke that string. Soon after the healthcare bill passed Congress (under Steny Hoyer’s leadership), I contributed $200 to Charles Lollar’s campaign. Not only do I believe this contribution will not be a waste of money, I think the fact that I did it is another indication that the results of this coming election will be very surprising.

Something’s coming, something good

Three polls issued today make it very clear that the upcoming November elections are going to be a very different animal than any election anyone has seen in decades.

First, Public Policy Polling (PPP) finds that in the West Virginia race for the Senate seat formerly held by Robert Byrd, long shot Republican John Raese is leading shoe-in Democrat Joe Manchin by 3 points.

Second, Rasmussen finds that not only is Republican Joe Miller leading his opponents in the Alaska Senate race by 15%, the Democrat candidate, Scott McAdams, can only garner 25%. Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski, who lost to Miller in a primary upset, is doing almost as bad as an independent write-in candidate, with 27%.

Third, a Quinnipiac poll shows Republican Tom Corbett destroying Democrat Dan Onorato by a 54-39 margin in the race for Pennsylvania governor.

Not only do these numbers show a willingness of the public to consider new and unknown candidates and reject incumbents, they also show a surprising hostility to Democrat candidates in regions that have always been considered Democrat strongholds. In West Virginia, the accepted wisdom was that the Democrat Manchin would be nominated and then annointed. Not so. In Alaska, not only did Miller upset the incumbent Murkowski in the Republican primary, voters apparently have little interest in seeing her return to office, or give her Democrat rival the job either. And in Pennsylvania, a swing state that has in recent years been swinging increasingly Democratic, the numbers show instead a complete reversal of that trend and a total rejection of the Democrat candidate.

Yes, November 2nd is going to be an interesting day indeed.

Update: Another poll released today from PPP and commissioned by the leftwing website, Daily Kos, continues these astonishing trends. In the Wisconsin Senate race, Democrat incumbent Russ Feingold now trails Republican Ron Johnson by 11% points. And in Wisconsin governor’s race, the same poll found the Republican leading by 9%.

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