Forty just-launched Starlink satellites lost because of geomagnetic storm

SpaceX revealed today that because of the unexpected and ill-timed arrival of a geomagnetic storm from the Sun, 40 of the 49 Starlink satellites launched on February 3rd were lost and will quickly burn up in the atmosphere. As noted at Teslarati:

SpaceX says it “commanded the satellites into a safe-mode where they would fly edge-on (like a sheet of paper) to minimize drag” as soon as it was aware of the issue but that “the increased drag…prevented the satellites from leaving safe-mode to begin orbit raising maneuvers.” Based on that phrasing, the most obvious explanation is that the added drag caused up to 40 of the satellites to fall far enough into the atmosphere that their ion thrusters would no longer be able to raise their orbits faster than the drag was lowering them. Raising their solar arrays into the position needed for maximum power generation (and thus maximum sustained thrust) would also drastically accelerate reentry.

A lot of the press and those who love to attack SpaceX have made a big deal about this, but the real news of this story is the unprecedented impact of a geomagnetic storm on some newly launched satellites. Such a thing has never happened before, and only happened now because SpaceX does not raise the orbits of any Starlink into a more stable orbit before making sure the satellite is functioning properly. If it is not, the company leaves it in a low orbit so it quickly burns up and does not add to the amount of space junk in orbit. This approach is also somewhat unprecedented, but it also demonstrates SpaceX’s generally rational and responsible approach to what it does in commercial space.

Because of this approach, however, these satellites were vulnerable to this storm. The timing had to be just perfect to destroy them, and sadly for SpaceX it was. I fully expect SpaceX to add solar activity as a factor in timing future Starlink launches.

Note: I didn’t initially comment because I don’t see this as that big a deal. The effort to slander SpaceX by some (see the quotes for example near the end of this article) however changed my mind.

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Parker images the surface of Venus

Parker image compared to radar maps of Venus
For original images go here and here.

During its flybys of Venus in July 2020 and February 2021 the Parker Solar Probe used its wide field camera to take images of the night side of Venus in red optical and near infrared wavelengths, essentially measuring the heat (in the range of 863 degrees Fahrenheit) being emitted by the planet’s surface.

The resulting images, the first orbital photos of Venus’ surface in the optical, showed continent-sized surface details that matched previously made radar maps, and confirmed as expected that the higher altitudes are cooler than the lower.

The paper outlining these results can be read here.

The two pictures to the right compare previous radar maps (on the right) with the new Parker image (on the left). The central dark and cooler area is a region called Aphrodite Terra, which like Earth’s continents sits higher than the surrounding terrain.

Note that though cooler, the surface at these dark areas is still hellishly hot, more than 800 degrees Fahrenheit. Exploring the surface of Venus is going to be a far far far more challenging task that going to Mars.

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Mars: Glaciers on top of glaciers on top of glaciers

Overview map
Mars’ glacier country.

glaciers on top of glaciers on top of glaciers
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on December 12, 2021 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows a small patch of layered glacial features flowing in all directions. The overview map above marks its location by the red dot, at 40 degrees north latitude in the region dubbed Deuteronilus Mensae, on the western end of the 2,000 long strip from 30 to 60 degrees north latitude that I dub Mars’s glacier country because practically every image in this region shows glacial features.

What makes the glacial features in this picture so remarkable is their number, their somewhat chaotic nature, and the evidence of many layers, suggesting a cyclical process of ebb and flow over the eons.

Below I zoom into one section of this photo, showing that section at full resolution.
» Read more

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Have astronomers discovered an asteroid with three moons?

The uncertainty of science: According to a New York Times article published yesterday, astronomers have now discovered an asteroid with three moons, making it the first such asteroid ever discovered.

The asteroid, Electra, was first discovered in 1873, and orbits the Sun in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. It was already known that it had two moons. The new research thinks it has found a third.

In reading the researchers’ the actual paper describing this research, it appears that the Times is spinning the data, making it sound more certain than it is. This new result comes entirely from new software that was designed to better resolve archival images of the asteroid, and thus carries a lot of uncertainty. From the paper’s conclusion:

[There remain] a lot of uncertainties remain concerning the orbit of S3 [the new asteroid moon]. More data on S2 and S3, as well as a more thorough dynamical study are necessary to solve the problem of the motion of the satellites of Elektra. However, the discovery of the first quadruple asteroid system slightly opens the way for understanding the mechanisms of the formation of these satellites.

In terms of data processing, S3 is barely visible in the data reduced with the standard pipeline and processed with standard halo removal algorithms and it was missed until now.

The paper repeatedly notes that the orbital data for Electra and its moons is presently “poorly constrained” and needs significant refinement in order to confirm this result.

If true, however, these moons are probably pieces that broke off of Electra at some point in the past, and could provide good information about the long term history of asteroids in the asteroid belt.

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Swiss startup raises $29 million to build a hypersonic commercial plane

Capitalism in space: Destinus, a new Swiss startup, has successfully raised $29 million in seed money to begin development of a hypersonic commercial plane.

Destinus is developing a vehicle that takes off and lands horizontally under the power of airbreathing jet engines. Once out of controlled airspace, Destinus’ hyperplane is designed to accelerate to hypersonic speeds with the help of a cryogenic hydrogen-fueled rocket engine, according to the company’s Feb. 8 news release.

Destinus has been testing airbreathing engines during flight tests of an unpiloted prototype. By the end of the year, the company aims to show its prototype can break the sound barrier

This company’s founding has an interesting backstory. Its founder, Mikhail Kokorich, was a major investor in the American space tug company Momentus. When the Defense Department forced him to sell his share in that company last year because he was not an American, he moved to Switzerland to form Destinus instead. Nor is this Kokorich’s only endeavors in commercial space. He has started a number of other small companies previously.

Don’t expect Destinus’s plane to fly in the near future. Though it has already flown a small scale prototype, the company only started to hire engineers in the past few months.

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Ingenuity completes 19th flight

Perserverance and Ingenuity as of February 8, 2022
Click for interactive map.

The Mars helicopter Ingenuity yesterday successfully completed its 19th flight on the Martian surface, traveling for 99 seconds about 200 feet to the northeast, landing close to the landing site of its 8th flight back in June 2021.

The map to the right shows the helicopter’s overall travels in tan, with the 19th flight path in green. The white line marks Perseverance’s travels, with the red dot indicating its present location. The dashed yellow line indicates the rover’s planned route. To achieve that the rover team is retracing its steps along the path it had previously traveled, with Ingenuity flying in front, along that path.

The flight had been delayed more than a month while waiting for a dust storm to settle as well as making sure Perseverance was in a good position to maintain communications throughout the flight. With Perseverance finally on the move to the east and the dust storm subsiding, the Ingenuity flight was finally possible.

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Pioneer game update: Full demo of game released

Though no launch date for the Kickstarter campaign for funding the creation of a videogame based on my science fiction book Pioneer has been announced, the producer, Aaron Jenkin, early this week released the full demo of the game. You can download a version for either Windows, Mac, or Linux here.

I’ve played the Linux version and had a great time. While this is only a demo, Aaron has captured the feel of my book, while adapting it to the needs of a video game. I really hope when the Kickstarter campaign starts, it quickly raises enough to produce the game. It will be a blast for players.

For those who want to get the game’s newsletter updates, published about once per week, you can subscribe at PioneerSpaceGame.com. If you are definitely interested in donating to the game, you should also subscribe as it gives Aaron a sense of the amount of interest (the numbers have been rising quickly in the past month, a very good sign!).

For those who want to get a sense of of what the game itself will be like now, below the fold is the game’s trailer.
» Read more

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Random Martian ridges on a lava plain

Random ridges on Martian lava plain
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on December 30, 2021 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). This was a terrain sample image, taken not as part of any specific research project but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule and thus keep its temperature maintained properly. When the MRO team needs to take such pictures, they try to pick locations that might be interesting and previously unphotographed, but often the location is neither.

In this case this terrain sample captured a flat lava plain interspersed with sinuous ridges going in all directions. On top of this is a scattering of smaller impact craters, which obviously occurred after the lava had flowed and solidified.

What caused the ridges?
» Read more

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Space tug company picks Falcon 9 for test flights

Capitalism in space: Launcher, one of several space tug startups, has awarded SpaceX the contract to launch its first four test flights of its Orbiter tug.

Launcher announced Feb. 7 it signed a multi-launch contract with SpaceX for three additional missions of its Orbiter tug. Those tugs will fly on Falcon 9 rideshare missions in January, April and October of 2023.

Launcher’s first Orbiter tug will launch on SpaceX’s Transporter-6 rideshare mission in October 2022 under a contract announced last June when the company revealed its plans to develop Orbiter. The vehicle is designed to deploy cubesats and other smallsats in their desired orbits as well as host payloads for missions lasting up to two years.

Launcher — along with Momentus, Spaceflight, Astroscale, and several others — are all rushing to build and launch the first tugs for transporting satellites from orbit to orbit, or to remove space junk. Launcher’s deal with SpaceX suggests it is tailoring its system for satellites launched from the Falcon 9.

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Lockheed Martin wins NASA contract to build Mars rocket

Capitalism in space: NASA yesterday awarded Lockheed Martin a $194 million contract to build the Mars rocket that will lift Perseverance’s samples into orbit for return to Earth.

Set to become the first rocket fired off another planet, the MAV [Mars Ascent Vehicle] is a crucial part of a campaign to retrieve samples collected by NASA’s Perseverance rover and deliver them to Earth for advanced study. NASA’s Sample Retrieval Lander, another important part of the campaign, would carry the MAV to Mars’ surface, landing near or in Jezero Crater to gather the samples cached by Perseverance. The samples would be returned to the lander, which would serve as the launch platform for the MAV. With the sample container secured, the MAV would then launch.

Once it reaches Mars orbit, the container would be captured by an ESA (European Space Agency) Earth Return Orbiter spacecraft outfitted with NASA’s Capture, Containment, and Return System payload. The spacecraft would bring the samples to Earth safely and securely in the early- to mid-2030s.

According to this project’s webpage, the European Space Agency (ESA) is building that they call a “fetch rover” which will be deployed from the rover to get the samples and bring them back to the MAV.

There are a lot of uncertainties in this scenario. It has been decades since Lockheed Martin built rockets. ESA has not yet built an operational Mars rover. It is also unclear who will build NASA’s lander and capture/return payload. Thus, do not expect this mission to launch “as early as ’26,” as the press release says. I predict it will launch at least five, maybe ever ten years, later.

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Astra launch aborts at T-0

UPDATE: The launch has been scrubbed for the day. No word on when they will reschedule, nor has Astra released any information as to what caused the launch abort, other than a “telemetry issue.”.

Capitalism in space: The second attempt by Astra to launch its first commercial satellites on its second orbital launch from Cape Canaveral aborted at T-0.

The launch on February 5th was scrubbed when some radar equipment used by the range failed.

The launch team is presently reviewing the data to see if they can recycle and attempt another launch today. This would be the second recycle today, as the first launch attempt was held about a minute before launch and then recycled, leading to the launch abort at T-0. The launch window still has about 100 minutes left.

The rocket is carrying four cubesats, three built by students at three different universities, with the fourth built by engineers at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in their effort to learn how to build cubesats for themselves.

I have embedded Astra’s live stream below the fold, for those who wish to watch.
» Read more

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Astronomers organize lobbying group to block satellite constellations

The International Astronomical Union (IAU) has now created an office to lobby governments worldwide to block the coming commercial launch of numerous satellite constellations.

The IAU claims that the first goal of this new office will be to study the effects of these satellites on ground-based astronomy accompanied by an effort to work with industry to mitigate those effects.

That is a lie. This is the office’s real purpose:

Another role for the center will be to create national and international laws and norms for what regulators allow in orbit. “We need to codify these good intentions, to have some backup,” says Richard Green of the University of Arizona’s Steward Observatory. “We’ll take a two-pronged approach: Cooperate and develop legislation to apply if necessary.” IAU and other bodies are working to convince the United Nations’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space of the need for legislation. “We are confident that we will have guidelines that will have to be followed by companies in the near future,” Benvenuti says. Cosmologist Aparna Venkatesan of the University of San Francisco says it would be good if there were laws in the United States and elsewhere that echoed the influential U.S. Clean Air Act: “Many of us dream of a Clean Skies Act.”

Rather than realize that things are changing and Earth-based astronomy is becoming obsolete, the astronomers wish to use the force of law to block progress by others so that they can continue to live in the past.

The time to have moved all cutting edge astronomical research off the planet arrived more than three decades ago. The astronomers refused to recognize this, focusing instead on building giant telescopes on the ground that had less capability than the Hubble Space Telescope and were dogged by political and engineering challenges that hindered their success.

Had astronomers instead focused on building many small orbiting optical telescopes, the threat of satellite constellations now would be minimal. Instead, astronomers would be poised to build the bigger space-based telescopes they need. Instead, they are grounded, with the needed future space-based telescopes possibly decades away.

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