Tag: policy

Artemis-2 proves NASA learned nothing from the Challenger and Columbia failures

9:56 am

NASA: an agency still avoiding reality
NASA: an agency that still avoids reality

Our bankrupt new media continues to fail us. NASA is about to send four astronauts on a ten-day mission around the Moon in a capsule with questionable engineering, and that media continues to ignore the problem. Mainstream news outlets continue to describe the mission in glowing terms, consistently ignoring that questionable engineering. In some cases the stories even make believe NASA has fixed the problem, when it has not.

The most ridiculous example is an article yesterday from an Orlando outlet, Spectrum New 13: “How the lessons learned from the Challenger disaster apply to Artemis rockets”. It focuses entirely on the O-ring problem that destroyed Challenger, noting repeatedly that NASA has fixed this issue in its SLS rocket.

Of course it has. That’s the last war, long over. Engineers fixed this issue almost four decades ago. The article however dismisses entirely the new engineering concern of today, Orion’s heat shield, which did not work as expected during its own test flight in space in 2022. It covers this issue with this single two-sentence paragraph:

However, during re-entry, it broke up into chunks instead of burning away. This issue pushed back the Artemis II and III missions, but NASA has stated it has resolved the problem.

NASA however has not resolved the problem. It is using the same heat shield now on this manned mission, and really has no reason to assume it will work any better, even if the agency has changed the re-entry flight path in an effort to mitigate the heat shield’s questionable design.

You see, NASA with Artemis-2 is doing the exact same thing it did prior to both the Challenger and Columbia accidents. » Read more

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German government hires German startup Polaris Spaceplanes to build reusable two-stage hypersonic plane

10:06 am

Mira-II prototype following first flight using aerospike engine
Mira-II prototype following first flight using
aerospike engine in October 2024.

The German government yesterday awarded a contract to the German startup Polaris Spaceplanes to build and fly a reusable two-stage hypersonic plane by 2027.

On 27 January, POLARIS Spaceplanes announced that it had been awarded a contract by the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) to build a fully reusable, horizontal take-off, two-stage hypersonic vehicle. The primary application of the Hypersonic Test and Experimentation Vehicle (HYTEV) will be as a hypersonic testbed for scientific and defence-related research. A variant of the vehicle with an expendable upper stage will also be capable of deploying small satellites into low Earth orbit.

According to the company, the HYTEV will be roughly the size and take-off mass of a fighter jet. The main stage will be powered by two turbofans and one of the company’s in-house developed aerospike rocket engines. The turbofans will be used for take-off and landing, and the rocket engine will accelerate the vehicle before upper-stage deployment. The upper stage will be entirely rocket-powered, with imagery accompanying the announcement appearing to show a more conventional rocket engine configuration compared with the aerospike engine equipped to the main stage. After completing its mission, it will likely be recovered under controlled glide conditions or potentially by a parachute or parafoil.

This deal appears to be an upgrade to a February 2025 German government deal with Polaris. It also follows Polaris’s successful use of an aerospike engine on a prototype test flight in 2024. While the company has shown some success, doing more than a dozen test flights with small scale prototypes (as shown in the image to the right), this program and schedule still seems quite ambitious.

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Ariane-6 gets a new government launch contract

9:45 am

The European Space Agency, one agency among many
The European Space Agency, one European
agency among many

The government rocket of the European Space Agency (ESA), the Ariane-6, yesterday won a new launch contract to place a pair of Galileo GPS-type satellites into orbit for the European Union (EU).

Arianespace announced today at the European Space Conference in Brussels the signature of the launch contract with the European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA), under the delegation of the European Commission, to orbit the second pair of second-generation satellites of the Galileo constellation (Galileo L18) on board an Ariane 6 launcher. With this signature, the European Commission and the EUSPA are formalizing the launch contract of Galileo L18, following the initial mission allocation to Arianespace made in April 2024.

All told this will be Ariane-6’s fifth launch of GPS-type satellites for the EU, which appears committed to Ariane-6, even though this expendable rocket costs much more than SpaceX’s Falcon 9, in order to promote European sovereignty. Eventually Europe will develop more cost effective private rockets (in about a decade), but until then its access to space will be limited by cost.

And the extra cost is not simply the expendable nature of Ariane-6. Note also the many layers of bureaucracy listed in the quote above. For the European Union there the European Union Agency for Space Programme, working under the supervision of the EU’s European Commission. It signed a deal with Arianespace, which represents the European Space Agency as its commercial rocket division.

That’s four different bureaucracies, two within the European Union and two more related to Europe’s space effort. Each adds cost to the launch, as well as the need for complex negotiations that delay any deal.

Not

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SpaceX launches GPS satellite

9:06 am

SpaceX last night successfully launched a GPS satellite for the Space Force, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The Space Force had originally hired ULA to launch this satellite, but two weeks ago it switched launch provider to SpaceX. Apparently the military wanted this satellite launched now, and for some reason ULA could not do it, even though the Vulcan rocket was supposedly ready for launch.

The first stage completed its fifth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The two fairing halves each completed their second flight.

The 2026 launch race:

11 SpaceX
5 China
1 Rocket Lab

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Scientists produce new estimate of the thickness of Europa’s icy crust

5:23 pm

Europa in true color
Europa in true color, taken by Juno during that
September 2022 fly-by. Click for full image.

Using data produced by Juno during a 2022 close-fly of Jupiter’s moon Europa, scientists have made a new estimate of the thickness of Europa’s icy crust, approximately 18 miles thick with a 6-mile margin of error.

In other words, their estimate could be as small as 12 miles thick, or as large as 24 miles thick.

You can read their paper here. From their abstract:

For the idealized case of pure water ice, the data are consistent with the existence of a thermally conductive ice shell with a thickness of 29 ± 10 km [18 ± 6 miles] and with the presence of cracks, pores or other scatterers extending to depths of hundreds of metres below the surface with a characteristic size smaller than a few centimetres in radius. An ice-shell salinity of 15 mg kg−1, as indicated by models based on terrestrial marine ice, would reduce our estimate of the thickness of the ice shell by about 5 km, substantially less than our 10 km uncertainty. The low volume fraction, small size and shallow depth of the scatterers indicate that the fracture interfaces observed at Europa’s surface are alone unlikely to be capable of carrying nutrients between the surface and the ocean. [emphasi mine]

The highlighted sentence is the important one. If this new estimate is right, than the unidentified reddish material that appears to leak out of the long ridgelike cracks on Europa’s surface, clearly visible in the picture to the right, are not coming from any underground ocean. The distances are too large.

Other estimates have suggested that ice crust could be as thin as 2 miles, but like this research the uncertainties are very large.

Meanwhile, the Juno mission is still alive, though essentially winding down operations. The mission was expected to officially end at the end of September 2025, when its budget ran out, but the just passed budget included enough money to keep it going, albeit at a relatively low level. According to the orbiter’s webpage, it will continue to orbit Jupiter, its orbit degrading naturally until it falls into Jupiter to burn up. As it does so data will continue to be collected, though at a much lower rate.

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NASA targeting January 31, 2026 for Artemis-2 dress rehearsal countdown

8:25 am

The flight plan for the Artemis-2 mission around the Moon
The flight plan for the Artemis-2 mission around the Moon. Click for original.

NASA engineers are now targeting January 31, 2026 for the manned dress rehearsal countdown of the Artemis-2 SLS rocket and Orion capsule.

The upcoming wet dress rehearsal is a prelaunch test to fuel the rocket. During the rehearsal, teams demonstrate the ability to load more than 700,000 gallons of cryogenic propellants into the rocket, conduct a launch countdown, and practice safely removing propellant from the rocket without astronauts inside the spacecraft.

During several “runs,” the wet dress rehearsal will test the launch team’s ability to hold, resume, and recycle to several different times in the final 10 minutes of the countdown, known as terminal count. The rehearsal will count down to a simulated launch at 9 p.m. EST, but could run to approximately 1 a.m. if needed.

This rehearsal will include the four-person crew inside the Orion capsule, which will once launched take them in a wide ten-day Earth orbit that will swing them past the Moon and then back to Earth. The crew entered quarantine at the end of last week to reduce the chance they will catch any illnesses prior to launch.

This mission carries great risk, as the capsule’s life support system has never been used in space before, while the viability of its heat shield remains questionable.

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NASA makes it official: Oman signs the Artemis Accords

8:01 am

Active and proposed Middle East spaceports
Active and proposed Middle East spaceports

In a press announcement yesterday, NASA officially confirmed that Oman has become the 61st nation to sign the Artemis Accords.

U.S. Ambassador to the Sultanate of Oman Ana Escrogima and NASA’s Deputy Associate Administrator Casey Swails participated in the event held on the opening day of the Middle East Space Conference, an international forum on space and innovation in the region. Said al-Maawali, Oman’s minister of transportation, communication, and information technology signed on behalf of the country.

I had reported early yesterday a story in Oman’s state-run press claiming that its sultan wanted his country to sign the Artemis Accords, a claim put forth by Oman officials during this conference. Apparently that was poor reporting. What actually happened was the event included the official Artemis Accords signing ceremony, which also included a number of other bi-laterial trade agreements.

As I noted yesterday, Oman has been unsuccessful so far in its efforts to bring American rocket and satellite companies to its proposed Duqm spaceport because State Department ITAR regulations, designed to protect American technology from hostile foreign powers, prevent it. This agreement hopefully includes some security guarantees that will ease those regulations and allow such deals.

The full list of all signatories to this American space alliance:
» Read more

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Oman says it wants to sign the Artemis Accords

9:17 am

Middle East, showing Oman's proposed spaceport
The Middle East, showing the location of
Oman’s proposed spaceport at Duqm.

In a diplomatic meeting between Oman and U.S. state department in Oman, Oman officials announced their Sultan wants his country to sign the Artemis Accords.

The two sides discussed means of maximising the benefits of the Free Trade Agreement between the two countries and augmenting American investments in sectors of priority for the Sultanate of Oman. These sectors include the digital economy, technology and space, in addition to mining, logistics, aviation and infrastructure.

Cooperation in the fields of education and culture was also discussed, particularly educational programmes, academic and professional exchange and investment in research and innovation. The two sides further exchanged views and positions on a number of regional and international issues, emphasising the importance of backing efforts for peace, stability and development.

During the dialogue, the Omani side announced the Sultanate of Oman’s approval to join the ‘Artemis Accords’ for space exploration. A cooperation statement on the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States of America was also signed. [emphasis mine]

Much of this is diplomatic blather, meaning little. While I would expect the Trump administration welcome Oman as an Artemis Accord partner, in the talks related to the highlighted first paragraph above it likely demanded some concessions first. Free trade in Oman is going to require some protection for American technology.

For example, right now State Department rules make it difficult if not impossible to launch American satellites or rockets from Oman’s proposed spaceport in Duqm, rules imposed because Oman cannot be trusted. I expect the State Department is demanding total security control from U.S. entities on any launch before agreeing to an Oman Artemis Accord agreement.

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Russia delays launch of its own “Starlink” constellation

9:33 am

I’m shocked, shocked! According to news reports in Russia yesterday, Roscosmos has now delayed the initial launches for its own copycat “Starlink” constellation because the production of the satellites has fallen behind schedule.

In September 2025, Roscosmos head Dmitry Bakanov promised that by the end of 2025, the first 300 satellites would begin to be deployed in orbit as part of the Rassvet project. They are supposed to become “an analogue of the Starlink system” and provide “access to the internet at any geographical point.”

According to the publication, the postponement of the launch of the first 16 devices until 2026 may be due to the fact that the required number of satellites has not yet been assembled.

The project is being run by a Bureau 1440, supposedly a private Russian commercial company that is providing two thirds of the $5.7 billion budget, with the Russian government picking up the difference. It claims it will begin launching this year and have 318 satellites in orbit by 2028.

Wanna bet? Russia has not been able to complete any space project on time in decades, and even when its projects do finally launch, each routinely has had serious technical and quality control issues.

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Isar postpones 2nd Spectrum rocket launch attempt, no new date set

10:24 am

Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe
Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace yesterday canceled its second attempt to launch its Spectrum rocket from Norway’s Andoya spaceport, citing an issue with a “pressurization valve”.

We are standing down from today’s launch attempt to address an issue with a pressurization valve. The teams are currently assessing the next possible launch opportunities and a new target date will be announced shortly.

The update also stated the company is moving to a “new launch window” without noting the dates of that window. This statement however suggests that no new launch attempt will occur for at least a month. And considering it is winter at Andoya in the high north, it is quite possible the launch will be delayed until March.

Meanwhile, Andoya continues to lead the race to become the first spaceport in Europe to achieve an orbital launch. Sweden’s Estrange spaceport is limited because of its interior location. The two sea platforms proposed for the North Sea are not yet ready.

And the United Kingdom has effectively eliminated itself from the competition. Its bureaucracy and Byzantine regulations have now put two rocket companies out of business, and that same red tape (combined with location opposition) has essentially shut down the Sutherland spaceport. I doubt there are any rocket companies willing to deal with the UK at this point.

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Orbital tug startup Starfish Space wins $52.5 million Space Force contract to de-orbit its defunct satellites

8:01 am

Remora rendezvous
Images taken by Starfish’s camera during rendezvous
maneuvers.

The orbital tug startup Starfish Space yesterday announced it has been awarded a $52.5 million contract from the Space Force’s Space Development Agency (SDA) to use its Otter tug to de-orbit satellites when they have reached their end-of-life.

Under the contract, Starfish Space will build, launch, and operate an Otter spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO) to safely and efficiently dispose of SDA satellites at the end of their operational lives. The mission begins with an initial deorbit, with options for multiple additional deorbits, enabled by Otter’s significant capacity and ability to service several satellites in a single mission. The mission is targeting launch in 2027.

While a number of contracts have been issued in the U.S., Europe, and Japan to demonstrate de-orbit technology, this is the first operational contract ever issued. Moreover, I don’t think any of those other demo missions have actually achieved a de-orbit as of yet. Starfish itself has only successfully demonstrated rendezvous and proximity capabilities on two missions, with a third a failure. In the most recent late last year (as shown by the image on the right), Impulse’s Mira tug used Starfish software and camera to move within 1.2 kilometers of another Mira tug.

As for docking, its Otter Pup tug has flown two missions. The first failed in 2023 when both spacecraft began spinning unexpected. The second was supposed to achieve a docking, but after completing rendezvous maneuvers the company has provided no new updates. As far as we know, the docking never occurred or was a failure.

Nonetheless, it appears Starfish’s overall recent performance convinced the Space Force it could handle this new de-orbit contract.

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French startup The Exploration Company negotiating purchase of UK rocket startup Orbex

8:39 am

Prime rocket prototype on launchpad
The prototype of Orbex’s never-launched Prime rocket,
on the launchpad in 2022

In what appears to be a direct consequence of British red tape blocking Orbex from launching in the past four years, it is now in negotiations to sell its assets to the French startup The Exploration Company.

On 21 January, Orbex published a brief press release stating that a letter of intent had been signed and that negotiations had begun. The company added that all details about the transaction remain confidential at this stage. A statement from Orbex CEO Phil Chambers suggests that the company’s financial position factored into its decision to pursue a buyer. “Our Series D fundraising could have led us in many directions,” said Chambers. “We believe this opportunity plays to the strengths of both businesses, and we look forward to sharing more when the time is right.”

Let me translate: In 2022 Orbex had set up a factory close to the proposed Sutherland spaceport on the north coast of Scotland, had signed a 50 year lease with that facility to launch its Prime rocket there, had built a launch platform and tested a prototype of the rocket, and was poised to do its first launch. All it needed was license approvals from the United Kingdom’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

And then it waited, and waited, and waited, and waited. By 2024 it gave up on Sutherland, because the authorities (local and national) kept rejecting its spaceport license for environmental and political reasons. It switched its launch site to the SaxaVord spaceport on the Shetland Islands, pushing back that first launch to 2026. Along the way the UK gave it a $25 million grant, likely to keep the company above water because the UK was blocking its ability to launch.

All for naught. It is very clear Orbex has run out of cash waiting, and is now looking to salvage its work by selling everything to the French company, which so far has focused on building a cargo capsule to supply the upcoming commercial space stations.

If the sale goes through, do not be surprised if Orbex’s assets exit the UK entirely. And at that point, the CAA’s red tape can be given credit for destroying a second rocket company, following Virgin Orbit.

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JAXA releases preliminary results of investigation into December 2025 H3 rocket launch failure

8:01 am

Japan's space agency JAXA

JAXA yesterday released the preliminary results of its investigation into upper stage failure during the December 2025 launch of its H3 rocket.

Previously the agency had indicated it believed the cause was linked to the separation of the rocket’s payload fairings. This new report changes that conclusion:

After liftoff, the No. 8 H3 rocket sustained damage to the section where the Michibiki No. 5 positioning satellite was mounted, when the satellite cover, called fairing, was separated.

In addition, the fuel tubing of the rocket’s second-stage engine was damaged, presumably causing combustion to stop earlier than planned, JAXA said in a progress report on its investigation into the failure at a meeting of a subgroup of a science ministry panel.

As the section was damaged, the satellite was no longer attached to the second stage of the rocket. The satellite fell off when the first stage separated.

In other words, as the fairings released, the satellite apparently deployed, damaging the fuel feed to the upper stage engine. It is as yet unclear whether the deployment system worked as intended, but did so prematurely, or if it failed entirely, allowing the satellite to fall away once the fairings separated.

At the moment Japan has no launch capability. Both of JAXA’s rockets, the H3 and the Epsilon-S are grounded due to launch failures. Meanwhile, the country has only recently begun to develop private launch companies, none of which are ready to launch.

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Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space raises $145 million in investment capital

9:28 am

Eris rocket launch and failure
Gilmour’s Eris rocket falling sideways from launchpad
(indicated by red dot) in July 2025. Click for much better
video.

The Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space, whose one orbital test launch in 2025 failed, has now raised an additional A$217 million ($145 million American) in investment capital, in addition to the A$142 million it had previously raised.

The Series E round was jointly led by the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC) and Hostplus, with participation from Future Fund, Blackbird, Funds SA, HESTA, NGS Super, Main Sequence, QIC, and Brighter Super.

…Proceeds from the raise will be used to support continued development and qualification of its Eris orbital launch vehicle, scale rocket and satellite manufacturing, expand test and launch infrastructure, and grow the company’s workforce to meet global demand for space launch services.

The National Reconstruction Fund Corporation is a government agency with a A$15 billion budget tasked to help finance new industries. It contributed A$75 million in this fund raising round.

The other major contributor was Hostplus, which matched that contribution.

Though the company has said it will attempt a second orbital test launch in 2026, no dates have been announced.

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New spaceport proposed in India independent of its space agency ISRO

8:02 am

The existing and proposed spaceports in India
The existing and proposed spaceports in India

According to the chief minister of the Andhra Pradesh province of India, his government is presently in discussions with the private Indian energy company Greenko Group about establishing a partnership to build a commercial spaceport at Hope Island off the coast near the city of Kakinada.

Addressing the gathering of foreign investors in renewable energies and officials of the State government after performing ‘bhumi puja’ [ground-breaking] for the Green Hydrogen and Green Ammonia Production Complex in Kakinada, Mr. Naidu said, “Soon, we (Andhra Pradesh) will launch satellites from the Hope Island. It will come soon, and Kakinada will have a lot of advantages in the field of technology and innovation.”

“The Greenko Group is evincing interest in being a part of the State government’s Space City project that includes developing satellite launching facility. In a recent interaction, Greenko Founder and Group CEO Anil Kumar Chalamalsetty has shown interest in the Space City project on the Hope Island,” said Mr. Naidu.

The location has advantages over the Sriharikota spaceport, run by India’s space agency ISRO, which on polar orbital launches needs to use extra fuel to avoid flying over Sri Lanka to the south. This issue is one of the reasons ISRO is presently building that second spaceport to the south for its SSLV rocket.

If privately run, this new spaceport will have other advantages. It will possibly attract some of India’s new rocket startups, who will avoid some of the bureaucracy that accompanies any dealings with ISRO. ISRO launches always involve a gigantic number of government personnel, a cost these startups can’t afford. This new Hope Island spaceport might avoid these costs with low overhead and efficient operations.

Nothing is firm yet. From the statement above, it appears the negotiation is in a very preliminary stage, and might never bear fruit.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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“A new empire has sprung into existence, and there is a new thing under the sun.”

12:52 pm

The words I quote in the headline above were spoken during a sermon by Pastor Manasseh Cutler on August 24, 1788 at the just established settlement of Marietta, Ohio, founded only six months previously by a small group of New England pioneers, with the goal of beginning the settlement of the American west now available following the end of the war of independence against Great Britain.

The Pioneers by David McCullough

It may be emphatically said that a new empire has sprung into existence, and there is a new thing under the sun. By the Constitution now established in the United States, religious as well as civil liberty is secured.

Some serious Christians may possibly tremble for the Ark, and think the Christian religion in danger when divested of the patronage of civil power. They may fear inroads from licentiousness and infidelity, on the one hand, and from sectaries and party divisions on the other.

But we can dismiss our fears, when we consider the truth can never be a real hazard, where there is a sufficiency of light and knowledge, and full liberty to vindicate it.

Cutler’s words come from David McCullough’s 2019 history, The Pioneers, describing the effort of Cutler and a small group of New Englanders to re-create a new New England in the wilderness north of the Ohio river.

Not surprisingly, McCullough’s book is quite readable, as are all his works. What made it a revelation to me is that it revealed an aspect of this early American settlement of the west that I had been ignorant of. It wasn’t just any old Americans moving west to found new communities. At the beginning it was specifically the descendants of the Pilgrims and Puritans in New England, actually organizing consciously to repeat the same thing as their ancestors, sending a group of God-fearing religious families west to build a new city on a hill, for the future of America and for their children.

Cutler himself had been crucial in lobbying Congress to establish the laws necessary to allow these first first settlers to buy land and begin settlement. He and a group of former revolutionary soldiers from New England had worked up a plan, and sent Cutler to New York and Philadelphia to convince Congress to pass the Northwest Ordinance of 1787, establishing the legal framework for settling the vast territories now open to American north and west of the Ohio river. Cutler himself wrote much of that bill, making sure it included articles requiring freedom of religion and no slavery.

In the early spring of 1788 the first group of twenty-two settlers arrived, and within a very short time they had established a town and community. By the time Cutler arrived in the late summer, the colony was so well established that families were arriving to build their own farms.
» Read more

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China launches more satellites in its Guowang satellite constellation

8:57 am

China today successfully placed the 19th group of Guowang (SatNet) satellites into orbit, its Long March 12 rocket lifting off from its coastal Wencheng spaceport.

The lower stages of the rocket fell in the territorial waters of the Philippines, forcing that government to issue a warning to its citizens.

Previously I had read reports claiming Guowang was an internet-of-things constellation aiming to 13,000 satellites eventually. That was incorrect. This constellation is comparable to Starlink, providing internet access globally. Before today’s launch there were 137 Guowang satellites in orbit. China’s state-run press provided no information about the number of Guowang satellites launched today. All previous launches using the Long March 12 placed nine in orbit, which would bring the total in orbit to 146. According to the article at the link, however, the constellation now has 150 in orbit.

The 2026 launch race:

8 SpaceX
5 China

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Japan’s government gives Ispace a $125 million contract to build a high-precision lunar lander

8:30 am

Is this the first sign that Japan's space agency JAXA is becoming irrelevant?
Is Japan’s failed space agency JAXA finally
starting to become irrelevant?

The Japanese lunar lander startup Ispace last week announced it has won a $125 million contract to build a high-precision lunar lander targeting a 2029 launch in the Moon’s “polar regions”.

Ispace, inc, a global lunar exploration company, announced that the company was selected to implement its proposal for “High Precision Landing Technology in the Lunar Polar Regions” project under the second phase of Japan’s Space Strategy Fund. The technology will be implemented in ispace’s Mission 6, with development now underway.

The funding amount is subject to change based on stage gate reviews and other factors, so full receipt is not guaranteed at this time.

The mission will also include a lunar orbiter that will act as a relay communication satellite that will also remain in orbit after the mission to provide communications for future missions, not only for polar missions but for missions to the Moon’s far side.

Ispace plans to use some of the technology it is developing for its 2nd generation lunar lander, scheduled to fly in ’28.

This contract is significant because it appears to leave ownership of the project entirely in Ispace’s hands, with Japan’s space agency JAXA having little design or management control. It also appears to use the funds from country’s ten-year $6.6 billion fund as intended. That fund was established in 2023 to support new space startups under the capitalism model, whereby the companies provide the product and government and JAXA are merely the customer.

Up until now it appeared this fund was accomplishing little. In fact, there have been indications that JAXA was trying to repurpose the fund for its own benefit, using it to hire a lot more staff while maintaining control and ownership of any project, rather than let the private sector own its own work.

Since JAXA has increasingly done a very bad job promoting Japan’s space exploration industry, those indications were a very bad sign for Japan’s future in space.

This deal appears however to use that strategic fund properly, even if JAXA might still be skimming a large percentage of the fund off the top. This is not unlike what NASA has been doing. Bureaucrats must be bureaucrats, and all government agencies must be eternal and immortal, no matter what.

Like NASA, however, the success of Ispace and rest of Japan’s private space sector from projects financed by this fund will eventually allow that private sector to make those bureaucrats and JAXA irrelevant. It is happening now in the U.S. It now appears there is a chance it will happen in Japan as well.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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China’s damaged Shenzhou-20 manned capsule successfully returned unmanned today

8:01 am

Shenzhou-20 after return
Click for original image.

China today finally brought its damaged Shenzhou-20 manned capsule back to Earth, having it touch down in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

All the text sources from China’s state-run press showed images like the one to the right, from a distance. Though one of the descent capsule’s windows is visible, and appears to have attracted a lot of attention from members of the recovery crew, it is impossible to see if this is the window that China says was hit by some space debris and damaged. Nor can we see the cracks China claimed were there that forced it to send up a rescue capsule to bring the crew back and return this capsule unoccupied.

BtB’s stringer Jay found two other tweets that China released on X. One focused entirely on the used spacesuit that was returned within the capsule, ignoring the capsule itself. The other showed just one image, showing a side of the capsule with no windows.

Why China has been so reluctant to release any images of the damaged window forces one to suspect they are hiding something, such as the cracks were not caused by an impact but by some issue with the capsule itself. This speculation could of course be completely wrong, but China’s secrecy is what generates it.

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SpaceX yesterday completed one launch while China had two launch failures

8:20 am

There were three launches attempts yesterday, though the two by China were both failures.

First, China’s Long March 3B rocket attempted a launch from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China but the rocket failed at some point. All that China’s state-run press said was that “an anomaly occurred during its flight” and “the cause of the failure is under investigation.” We therefore do not know when the failure occurred, or where any of the rocket stages crashed, inside China or elsewhere.

Next, China’s pseudo-company Galactic Energy attempted the first launch of its new Ceres-2 rocket, lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China. Once again, China’s state-run press provided little information, stating merely that “an anomaly occurred during its flight.”

The Ceres-2, like its predecessor the Ceres-1, is a solid-fueled rocket, though its final stage upgrades the rocket with liquid fuel. Both are based on missile technology, which is why this pseudo-company is “pseudo,” as everything it does is closely supervised by the Chinese government.

Finally, SpaceX placed a National Reconnaissance Office classified satellite into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its 2nd flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The two fairings in turn completed their 13th and 30th flights respectively.

The 2026 launch race:

7 SpaceX
4 China

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The recent computer hack of the European Space Agency was bigger than it admitted

9:00 am

After the European Space Agency (ESA) claimed in December that a computer hack that stole about 200 gigabytes of data was “limited,” it turns out that the agency had been hacked more than once preveious this past fall, and that the data stolen was far larger and apparently not limited at all.

The European Space Agency on Wednesday confirmed yet another massive security breach, and told The Register that the data thieves responsible will be subject to a criminal investigation. And this could be a biggie.

Earlier in the week, Scattered Lapsus$ Hunters told us that they gained initial access to ESA’s servers back in September by exploiting a public CVE, and stole 500 GB of very sensitive data. This, we’re told, includes operational procedures, spacecraft and mission details, subsystems documentation, and proprietary contractor data from ESA partners including SpaceX, Airbus Group, and Thales Alenia Space, among others.

And, according to the crims, the security hole remains open, giving them continued access to the space agency’s live systems.

“ESA is in the process of informing the judicial authorities having jurisdiction over this cyber incident to initiate a criminal inquiry,” an ESA spokesperson said via email. The agency declined to answer The Register’s specific questions about the intruders’ claims.

The article at the link outlines a slew of other hacks at ESA over the last decade. The agency seems unable to clean up its act.

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China launches four satellites for another Chinese constellation

8:41 am

The Chinese pseudo-company Galactic Energy early today successfully launched another four satellites in the Tianqi satellite constellation, its Ceres-1 solid-fueled rocket lifting off from a sea platform off the northeast coast of China.

This was the sixth launch for the Tianqi constellation, which apparently is an internet-of-things constellation. It has launched 41 satellites so far, though only 29 are presently operational, with 12 having had their orbits decay.

The 2026 launch race:

6 SpaceX
4 China

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Lockheed Martin and General Electric complete tests of a rotating-detonation engine

10:04 am

Lockheed Martin and General Electric announced this week that they have successfully tested a rotating-detonation engine using complimentary technology developed by each company.

GE Aerospace and Lockheed Martin completed a series of engine tests demonstrating the viability of a liquid-fueled rotating detonation ramjet for use in hypersonic missiles, the first initiative between the companies under a broader joint technology development arrangement.

This fuel-efficient rotating detonation ramjet promises to fly missiles faster—including at hypersonic speeds—and farther while decreasing costs compared to other ramjet options. … The rotating detonation ramjet combusts fuel and air through detonation waves instead of the traditional combustion methods used in ramjet engines today. This propulsion system generates high thrust for super- and hypersonic speeds to engage high-value, time-sensitive targets, with a smaller engine size and weight that boosts range.

In October Lockheed Martin’s venture capital division announced it was investing in a startup, Venus Aerospace, that was developing its own rotating detonation engines. One now wonders, based on today’s story, if that investment might have been a purchase of the technology itself.

Either way, the Pentagon’s program to develop hypersonic missile capability has blossomed in the past two years, since it stopped trying to build the technology itself and has instead been hiring private aerospace companies to do the research for it. Ain’t capitalism wonderful?

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The European Space Agency and China hold the first joint meeting in almost a decade

9:50 am

ESA logo

The European Space Agency (ESA) this week hosted the leaders of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) in Paris, the first such joint meeting since 2017.

The meeting was co-chaired by ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher and CNSA Administrator Shan Zhongde. Both ESA and CNSA had unique achievements to share and discuss since the last time the heads of agencies met in person.

Both highlighted joint successes in space science, notably the Tianguan (Einstein Probe) launch with ESA hardware, and progress on the joint Smile mission, set to launch this year. Similarly, the two sides addressed the successful Chang’e-6 mission carrying ESA’s NILS instrument, ESA’s first experiment on the lunar surface. In the field of telemetry and tracking, both looked back on their long-term cooperation in supporting science and exploration missions. In discussing their respective space safety and Earth observation related programmes, the importance of cooperation to protect our planet and climate was recognised on both sides.

It was discussed, that building past progress, both sides in their respective institutional contexts would explore potential opportunities for further collaboration in areas such as Earth and space science.

Let me translate: We in Europe have found that our cooperative Soviet-style government-run projects with NASA (ISS, Mars Sample Return, and Lunar Gateway) are going away, and we need to find some other authoritarian nation we can partner with.

You see, the bureaucrats in Europe like their Soviet-style government-run space program, and are actually offended that the U.S. is shifting from that approach to the capitalism model, an independent industry run by private enterprise. Moreover, these bureaucrats at ESA are finding their own political support dwindling within the ESA’s member nations, many of whom are adopting the same private industry approach as the U.S.

Thus, rather than embrace freedom, competition, and capitalism — the principles that once made Europe great — they look to China now to help fund their government projects. How so very governmental of them!

It is likely some space projects will come of this, but if the U.S. remains steadfast in support of freedom and private enterprise, it will flow like a tidal wave over anything ESA and China develop.

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China launches classified military satellite in partnership with Algeria

9:30 am

China today successfully placed a classified military remote sensing satellite into orbit, its Long March 2C rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

China’s state-run press provided no update on where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China. The story at the link, from China’s military, did provide this information about the satellite:

Developed by China Academy of Space Technology under China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), the satellite will be used for land planning and disaster prevention and mitigation. The launch is part of the Algeria remote sensing satellite system program, a joint project between China Great Wall Industry Corporation, a subsidiary of CASC, and the Algerian Space Agency. Signed in July 2023, the agreement includes two optical remote sensing satellites, ground systems, training, and related support services.

The 2026 launch race:

6 SpaceX
3 China

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Indian startup raises seed money to build robotic satellite servicing “jetpacks”

9:22 am

An Indian startup, Aule Space, has now raised $2 million in seed money to begin development of a robot servicing spacecraft it intends to call “jetpacks”, designed to attach to satellites and provide them fuel and power.

The seed funding will allow Aule Space to being work on a demonstration mission planned for launch next year to test its docking capabilities. That will involve two satellites, each weighing about 30 kilograms, but Panchal said one option is to instead use an orbital transfer vehicle as the client for the docking demonstration.

The 11-person company, which plans to grow to 20 people by the end of the quarter, is working on ground tests of its rendezvous and docking technology. It has access to facilities used by the Indian space agency ISRO for testing SPADEX, a docking demonstration mission flown a year ago.

This “jetpack” concept is very similar to Northrop Grumman’s Mission Extension Vehicles (MEV), several of which have already flown and extended the life of several satellites.

Aule is exactly the type of Indian satellite startup that India’s rocket startups, Agnikul and Skyroot, are being built to serve. The problem is that all of these startups, both satellite and rocket, are literally all startups. None has flown. India’s private space sector won’t really take off until its private rocket companies get off the ground, as its government space agency, ISRO, has done a very poor job launching its PSLV and SSLV rockets (both designed for smallsats). The PSLV has failed on its last two launches, and the SSLV has been in limbo now for years.

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Expedition-11 crew splashdowns safely

9:03 am

SpaceX’s Endeavour capsule has safely splashed down and been recovered off the coast of California, returning the four Expedition-11 astronauts several weeks early from ISS due to an as-yet undisclosed medical issue with one astronaut.

Crew-11 returned home about a month earlier than planned because of a medical concern teams are monitoring with one of the crew members, who remains stable. Due to medical privacy, it is not appropriate for NASA to share more details about the crew member. Prior to return, NASA previously coordinated for all four crew members to be transported to a local hospital for additional evaluation, taking advantage of medical resources on Earth to provide the best care possible.

Following the planned overnight hospital stay, the crew members will return to NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston and undergo standard postflight reconditioning and evaluations.

This hospital visit for all four astronauts is simply a cover to hide which astronaut has the medical issue. At some point this information must be revealed, simply because it impacts how future space travel will be planned.

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Axiom has delayed the launch of its first space station module to ’28

11:53 am

Axiom's module assembly sequence
Axiom’s module assembly sequence

When Axiom announced in September 2025 that Redwire would be building the solar panels for the first module of its space station, dubbed the PPTM, it also said that module would launch in late 2027, which was a delay of one year from the original launch date of 2026.

That schedule has now apparently been delayed again. In an interview yesterday, the company’s vice president of human spaceflight, former NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, indicated the launch was now targeting 2028.

Plans call for the initial Axiom Station to be comprised of two modules, the PPTM — short for Payload Power Thermal Module — and a habitat module. The PPTM, which is to be shipped shortly to Houston for final assembly and integration, is slated to be launched in early 2028, with the second module following just months later. From there, Axiom aims to swiftly begin welcoming crew, Peggy Whitson, the company’s vice president of human spaceflight, told me in an interview.

This schedule almost guarantees that the Axiom station will not detach from ISS as quickly as originally intended. PPTM has a large hatch opening connecting it to ISS, allowing for the easy transfer of much of the research racks held on ISS. Before Axiom can become a free-flying station that ISS equipment must be moved, a process that will take time, likely months. To get it done the company will probably have to also attach its second habitation module so that crews can arrive and begin this transfer process.

In other words, Axiom’s schedule margins for getting its station launched, docked to ISS, loaded with ISS equipment, and then separated before ISS retires in 2030 are shrinking. It can ill afford further delays.

Below are my rankings of the five American space stations presently under development. Note that I now consider Axiom and Starlab tied for second.
» Read more

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Another ESA rendezvous demo mission proposed

10:52 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) and the Luxembourg startup ClearSpace yesterday announced a new demo mission to test autonomous rendezvous and proximity maneuvers, scheduled to launch in 2027.

PRELUDE aims to validate autonomous rendezvous and proximity operations in real flight conditions. The mission will test high-accuracy tracking, navigation and maneuvering using a combination of vision-based and complementary sensors feeding onboard algorithms and autonomous, fault-tolerant guidance, navigation and control (GNC) software. The goal is to demonstrate full freedom of movement and safe, repeatable maneuvers around another spacecraft.

Sounds good, eh? Not so fast. ClearSpace has had a bunch of these missions proposed, and none has yet flown. In 2019 ClearSpace won an ESA contract to de-orbit an old piece of space junk by 2025. In 2023 however that mission was stymied when that space junk, a payload adapter from a 2013 launch of Vega rocket launch, was hit by another piece of space junk.

Both ESA and ClearSpace apparently had difficulties re-designing the mission. In 2024, the ESA forced a major shake-up in ClearSpace’s management and missions, with the established company OHB taking over the startup. Subsequently the mission was redesigned to de-orbit a different defunct satellite, but delayed until 2029.

In 2024 the United Kingdom gave ClearSpace and Japan’s Astroscale a contract to de-orbit two satellites in ’26. It is however not clear at this time whether that mission will launch as planned.

This new PRECLUDE mission is interesting in that it will test the rendezvous and proximity technology that ClearSpace must have for all the other de-orbit missions. In other words, those other missions were never possible, because ClearSpace didn’t have the capability to do them. This new mission appears designed to develop that capability.

I ask: Why wasn’t PRECLUDE scheduled first, in the first place? That it wasn’t reflects very badly on both ClearSpace and the ESA.

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